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Ukraine War 6: what the hell are the Russians thinking?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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"Tens of thousands of Russian gig workers left behind as tech platforms pull out
U.S. tech companies are scrambling to react to sanctions and public pressure after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/08/gigwork-russia/

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.... “It was like opening a door into another world for me,” she said, speaking on the condition that her last name not be used out of fear of government repercussions. Upwork connected her with clients in India, the United States, Australia and Germany, allowing her to make a living in a field in which she had struggled to find work locally.

But this weekend, Upwork abruptly pulled out of Russia. For more than a decade, American and European tech companies have made a business of facilitating online labor — from gig work to content creation and online marketplaces to payment processors. Now, tens of thousands of Russian video game streamers on Twitch, gig workers on Upwork, adult-content creators on OnlyFans and computer programmers working on contract have all lost their livelihoods, at least temporarily. ....

 

 

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With all this talk about Putin's next move, feel like it should be noted that DNI Avril Haines and CIA Director Bill Burns told Congress this morning that US intelligence suggests Putin is unlikely to be deterred by setbacks and instead is intent on doubling down and escalating "with scant regard for civilian casualties."

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1 hour ago, SpaceChampion said:

Doesn't look like late winter there, and the soldiers have their sleeves rolled up.  Is no one else skeptical of this photo?

The photo has not been taken recently nor in Ukraine, that is for sure. I put it there just as an illustration, sorry :-I Thought that armoured train in 21st century is interesting enough to post it's picture. It was taken from an article published on Polish military portal (again, as a topic related illustration).  Today on Twitter I have seen a film of the train, made with cellphone camera, but did not know exactly how to post it here and had not time to try (I got no Twitter account and get "frozen" quick when I browse in there). But here it is on YT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmIOxbai7pc

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5 hours ago, Toth said:

If we take the Ukrainian estimate of 12,000 dead Russians after 12 days of fighting at face value, somehow Putin is managing to be loosing a quarter of the causalities of freaking WW2 just trying to conquer Ukraine.

FYI, the CIA head puts the death toll at closer to 2000-4000 Russians. But since I am an American I wouldnt put too much faith in the "I" of CIA (although its probably a good idea to temper the estimates of the Ukrainians).

The CIA is sharing its information with their Ukrainian counterparts, so take that for what its worth.

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7 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

FYI, the CIA head puts the death toll at closer to 2000-4000 Russians. But since I am an American I wouldnt put too much faith in the "I" of CIA (although its probably a good idea to temper the estimates of the Ukrainians).

The CIA is sharing its information with their Ukrainian counterparts, so take that for what its worth.

Isn’t the 12,000 figure all Russian KIA, WIA, and POWs?

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7 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

FYI, the CIA head puts the death toll at closer to 2000-4000 Russians. But since I am an American I wouldnt put too much faith in the "I" of CIA (although its probably a good idea to temper the estimates of the Ukrainians).

The CIA is sharing its information with their Ukrainian counterparts, so take that for what its worth.

I think the CIA is being very cautious, at least with what they say publicly. They also said they don't see evidence yet of additional military equipment going to the war. But we've seen footage of the trains coming from the far east with the old Soviet equipment. I suppose it is possible that stuff is being transported for another reason, but it seems to me the overwhelming likelihood is it's going to the war.

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4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Isn’t the 12,000 figure all Russian KIA, WIA, and POWs?

No, according to Ukrainians KIA, WIA and POWS make about 40 000 AFAIR

Maybe the CIA just divides Ukrainian estimates by 3 

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9 minutes ago, Fez said:

I think the CIA is being very cautious, at least with what they say publicly. They also said they don't see evidence yet of additional military equipment going to the war. But we've seen footage of the trains coming from the far east with the old Soviet equipment. I suppose it is possible that stuff is being transported for another reason, but it seems to me the overwhelming likelihood is it's going to the war.

Yeah, digging into the information a bit more, it comes from a briefing by Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (not clear what that agency is) to the House Intel committee. He also said that analysts give the estimate low confidence, and it was based in part on information from “open sources,” which can mean media and social media reports.

Edit: To place that number in context, I was shocked to learn that ~2500 American service members were killed in 2 decades in Afghanistan.

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1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Yeah, digging into the information a bit more, it comes from a briefing by Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (not clear what that agency is) to the House Intel committee. He also said that analysts give the estimate low confidence, and it was based in part on information from “open sources,” which can mean media and social media reports.

The DIA is the intelligence arm of the U.S. Department of Defense. All their work is focused towards military matters, unlike the CIA.

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20 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

But since I am an American I wouldnt put too much faith in the "I" of CIA (although its probably a good idea to temper the estimates of the Ukrainians).

While I'm all for making fun of US intelligence, to be fair they were out in front of this last year saying Putin was likely to invade when many if not most didn't think he'd be crazy enough to do it (myself included).  They even got the timeframe right.

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13 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

 

Bluster from Russian officials incoming shortly, I'm sure.

Glad this is happening. Though it makes sense that Poland doesn't want to be the one to figure out how to physically get the planes to Ukraine.

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

I do wonder if that might be the point: Putin shows that he is willing to fight and do things people thought he would not, which may shore up his internal position even if he ends up walking away with nothing more than a bit more stringent negotiation in early February would have done (minus likely five figure deaths of Russian and Ukrainian military and Ukrainian civilians). Plus, cutting off his oligarchs from their resources in the West makes them more dependent on him and thus more loyal, and removes escape routes to other countries.

This entire exercise might end up with Putin getting things he could have gotten without war, but a stronger internal position for however many years he has left (in charge or in general).

I am open to the argument that Putin did this primarily for internal reasons.  The problem is that Russian internal politics are such a black box that it feels a little handwavey. This war is looking more and more like a disaster for Russia with huge costs, questionable benefits and no exits.  Dictators usually don't survive losing foreign wars.  Putin could be the exception, but there is a big difference between Putin surviving and Putin emerging stronger than ever (domestically).  This is one hell of a Xanatos Gambit if Putin did this to improve his domestic standing knowing the likely costs in terms of sanctions, international prestige, etc.

If we dial it down a bit and say that Putin domestic reasons were only one factor, then maybe that makes a little more sense.  I have to assume that Putin thought the military effort would be going significantly better and the Western response would be significantly weaker than it has been.  With those two erroneous assumptions onboard, then an additional benefit of bringing the oligarchs to heel as a result of expected western sanctions makes sense. 

I do think it is kind of amusing that huge amounts of hubris eventually results in reckless optimism and naivety.  The Bush WH definitely showed it in 2003, and it looks like perhaps an even more egregious example here in Russia.  Naivety isn't usually something attributed to Putin.

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7 minutes ago, Fez said:

Glad this is happening. Though it makes sense that Poland doesn't want to be the one to figure out how to physically get the planes to Ukraine.

Transparent yet plausible deniability too. It's good stuff. 

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