Ukraine War 6: what the hell are the Russians thinking?

[Werthead]

Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian missiles have been targeted at Belgorod, possibly at the airport or the military base nearby.

Vinnytsia Airport in western Ukraine has been hit by 8 missiles, apparently the largest amount fired in one go at a single aiport. A possibility that they are trying to disable any airport or base that can host the aircraft transfers from Poland.

Rumour that Russia is deploying Tochkas, despite them being effectively obsolete in the Russian inventory. Ukraine has been using them with surprising success, so the Russians may be dusting them off to back up their depleting stocks of cruise missiles. However, the Ukrainian Tochkas have been maintained and kept in good condition, the status of mothballed Russian ones remains more questionable.

The UK has established a hotline with the Russian Defence Ministry in addition to the American one.

Renewed fighting in Irpin, just north-west of Kyiv. One of the train tracks leading through Irpin has been destroyed, forcing refugees to walk further west to find trains or take buses.

Some reports that Belarus was "supposed" to enter the war a week ago, but Lukashenko pushed the peace talks instead as a way of avoiding deploying his soldiers. Some rumours that Belarusian generals are adamantly opposed to joining in the war, fearing it would lead to a renewal of mass demonstrations in Belarus itself. Fears of mass desertions. Possibility that Lukashenko has advised Putin that pushing the matter could threaten Belarus with a colour revolution of its own.

The USS Harry Truman and its carrier group have completed their redeployment to the northern Aegean, and are now off the coast of Greece, not far from the Bosporus.

[Werthead]

Be careful of the photographs of the resignation letter, they have not been verified (and the ones in English are obviously translated).

[Loge]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Right, and you cant use VISA/Mastercard in Iran because of sanctions, pretty much. I didnt understand the distinction and still dont.

Iran has been cut off from bank to bank communication:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWIFT#Use_in_sanctions

So have seven major Russian banks. But not the ones that process payments for gas, oil, and coal.

[Werthead]

Obviously, treat with extreme caution, but interesting.

[polishgenius]

24 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Obviously, treat with extreme caution, but interesting.

If true the part about Usyk and Loma really shows how important a strong, visible icon of resistance can be - to both sides. Like Zelensky is that guy to Ukraine, obviously, but he's the guy there's propaganda against. The boxers are icons in Russia too - and it may well have been an informational-warefare mistake for Russia to insist on hosting a tournament final Usyk was in a few years ago, which led him to show a more neutral stance to Russia than previously: suddenly he's a weapon against them. 

[Werthead]

 

[Maithanet]

The successful missile strike on Vinnytsia airport is a rare example of a Russian military success in the past few days.  I don't know if that's because there haven't been a lot of successes or if word of Ukrainian defeats just doesn't reach us.  I suspect it is some of both.

[Ran]

@polishgenius

These must be the guys whose convoy was attacked and photos showed all that riot gear in the snow. Crazy. I thought they were just sending the gear for troops to use, did not realize they went so far as sending policemen in...

[The Dragon Demands]

Reminds me of how the USA actually diverted funds from the Afghanistan military to building up police SWAT teams - hoping the actual military conflict would be won “soon” and they’d just shift to police handling holdout insurgents

[Werthead]

A flawless stratagem.

[Ran]

Finished that interview with the OMON riot police. Powerful stuff. Re: caution, it seems Russian trolls tried to claim Mikhailovich was a Ukranian plant, finding a photo of a guy who looked somewhat similar... but folks responded by pointing out that their doppelgänger was missing the lower half of his right arm. Also, they found the instagram of the OMON officer on the left, confirming his given name, age, and place of origin. Posts going back more than two years, so.. hard to imagine it's a plant at all.

[Fez]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

The successful missile strike on Vinnytsia airport is a rare example of a Russian military success in the past few days.  I don't know if that's because there haven't been a lot of successes or if word of Ukrainian defeats just doesn't reach us.  I suspect it is some of both.

Yeah, probably some of both. However, I've also seen it suggested that those missiles launched from Transnistria, the separatist region in Moldova that has Russian peacekeepers present. If those forces are the ones that launched the attack that would seem to me to be yet another violation of international law. Not that that's anything new for Russia.

[Kalnestk Oblast]

A Russian analyst wrote an article on Feb 3rd that is about as absurdly prescient a thing as I have ever seen. Worth a read. Another similar shades of Iraq in terms of politicians wanting to paint a far roster view of things than they were. 

https://russiandefpolicy.com/2022/02/07/mass-fire-strike-on-ukraine/

[Werthead]

Another discussion between Macron and Putin. Putin has said he will realise his aims through war (so much for the "special operation") or negotiation. The question that arises is what he is willing to accept through negotiation.

It does look like they are gearing up for an attack on Odesa, so if Odesa repulses the attack or bogs it down like Kyiv and Kharkiv have, that may determine the stance for any negotiations.

[polishgenius]

 

 

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

A flawless stratagem.

To be fair it's clear even he was joking about this.  What I found interesting is he's still attacking NATO, but now for being too soft on Russia.  Full 180 there:

 

[DMC]

Blinken on CNN this morning sounding like an oil ban is forthcoming:

Quote

In his interview with Tapper, Blinken said the US is working with its allies in Europe to look into the possibility of banning Russian oil imports in an effort to further punish the country.

"When it comes to oil, Russian oil, I was on the phone yesterday with the President and other members of the Cabinet on exactly the subject, and we are now talking to our European partners and allies to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil while making sure that there is still an appropriate supply of oil in world markets," Blinken said.

 

[Toth]

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

To be fair it's clear even he was joking about this.  What I found interesting is he's still attacking NATO, but now for being too soft on Russia.  Full 180 there:

Just shows you that this moron is just parroting whatever Fox News is saying. Didn't they also do a 180° turn after realizing that the vast majority of their viewer base still likes American jingoism slightly more than licking Putin's autocratic boots?

[Relic]

12 minutes ago, Toth said:

Just shows you that this moron is just parroting whatever Fox News is saying. Didn't they also do a 180° turn after realizing that the vast majority of their viewer base still likes American jingoism slightly more than licking Putin's autocratic boots?

Yup. They went from featuring the human sphincter known as Tucker Carlson saying "is Putin really bad? Has Putin ever called you a racist? Has Putin shipped your jobs to China?" to "Putin bad" literally overnight. 

[Fez]

10 minutes ago, Toth said:

Just shows you that this moron is just parroting whatever Fox News is saying. Didn't they also do a 180° turn after realizing that the vast majority of their viewer base still likes American jingoism slightly more than licking Putin's autocratic boots?

Yeah. Though it was mostly Tucker Carlson that was a full Putin-stan; and now he claims that Kamala Harris tricked/forced him to support Putin when he did. But the network does still bring on that insane retired colonel (I forget his name, he was Trump's pick to be Amb. to Germany and was so nuts McConnell refused to ever bring his name up for a confirmation vote) that is a full Putin supporter and has said on-air that Putin is being "too soft" on Ukraine. Meanwhile Hannity has fully embraced a return of the Cold War. So the coverage is still pretty uneven.