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Ukraine War 6: what the hell are the Russians thinking?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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Just now, DMC said:

It doesn't, that's just how this particular back and forth got started.

Ah, I see. Well, I do agree it doesn’t and shouldn’t, the only thing that matters is any attempt at and achievement of mediation or peace talk. 

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2 hours ago, mormont said:

Russia have agreed to open humanitarian corridors for civilians to evacuate - so long as they choose to go to Russia or Belarus.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/top-wrap-1-ukrainians-trapped-besieged-city-fighting-blocks-evacuation-efforts-2022-03-07/

Free hostage delivery I guess...

 

7 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

Ah, I see. Well, I do agree it doesn’t and shouldn’t, the only thing that matters is any attempt at and achievement of mediation or peace talk. 

A neutral country would show goodwill though. Holding peace talks in your own territory does not show interest in peace(which Belarus is de facto).

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1 minute ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

I suspect you have Russia too much benefit of doubt. They are on the rape and murder train already. 

No benefit of doubt when it comes to Russia, I am Polish. I think this would be evidence for Russian public opinion that the nazi terror in Ukraine is real and the Russian "rescue mission" justified.

They have already enough hostages in the occupied parts of country, everyone is a hostage actually.

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2 hours ago, mormont said:

Russia have agreed to open humanitarian corridors for civilians to evacuate - so long as they choose to go to Russia or Belarus.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/top-wrap-1-ukrainians-trapped-besieged-city-fighting-blocks-evacuation-efforts-2022-03-07/

Damn it.

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Ukraine claims to have destroyed 30(!) Russian attack helicopters on the ground in a surprise raid on the Kherson airfield. No confirmation yet, but apparently satellite images show that 40+ helicopters had been at the airfield last night. So the targets were there.

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5 minutes ago, Fez said:

Ukraine claims to have destroyed 30(!) Russian attack helicopters on the ground in a surprise raid on the Kherson airfield. No confirmation yet, but apparently satellite images show that 40+ helicopters had been at the airfield last night. So the targets were there.

I feel like "If this turns out to be true, this is amazing!" has become the running theme of this war for Ukraine.

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2 minutes ago, Toth said:

I feel like "If this turns out to be true, this is amazing!" has become the running theme of this war for Ukraine.

Yep. But most Ukrainian claims have been pretty well verified in the end. At least the official statements, the local press will hype up little things with vague tweets. Where the real propaganda comes in though is that they almost never mention their failures.

Like the fact thay Ukraine has lost around 250 tanks and other vehicles so far. Way less than Russia has, but they were starting from way less too. You have to dig real deep to start finding mentions of that.

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4 minutes ago, Fez said:

Yep. But most Ukrainian claims have been pretty well verified in the end. At least the official statements, the local press will hype up little things with vague tweets. Where the real propaganda comes in though is that they almost never mention their failures.

Like the fact thay Ukraine has lost around 250 tanks and other vehicles so far. Way less than Russia has, but they were starting from way less too. You have to dig real deep to start finding mentions of that.

Personally I see no reason to undermine the propaganda of a country under attack. It is not like anything positive is gained by that. 

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3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

So, either Putin is deposed in a internal and (hopefully) bloodless coup and negotiations can take place. Or the West need to back down and accept the division of Ukraine.

Ukraine isn't resisting Russia for the West's benefit though.  Sure, the West could decide to abandon Ukraine but I don't think Ukraine would meekly surrender then.  Devastation would continue.  Arguably more, since Russia would have the license to do whatever it wants, without being concerned about anyone interfering or Ukraine having the weapons to fight back.

The other problem with the appeasement strategy is we don't know what Russia would do next.  First it grabbed Crimea and the Donbass.  Next most/all of the rest of Ukraine?  Next Moldova or Georgia?  After that?

The objective has to be to stop all future wars in that region.  That's not a simple thing.  Partly because we don't know what Putin's ultimate goal is.  Although, some fear they do.

If all that means higher oil/wheat prices, i'm not sure how we can easily take another path.

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56 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

A neutral country would show goodwill though. Holding peace talks in your own territory does not show interest in peace(which Belarus is de facto).

I’m not sure I understand what you mean. 

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3 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

I’m not sure I understand what you mean. 

Russia refused talks in a neutral country like Switzerland or Austria. By insisting that the talks are held in a puppet state they showed that they want to dictate terms imho. That is the behavior of a country that who wants a surrender not proper peace. 

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