Varys’ Inconsistent Motivation

[Mordred]

What Lord Varys wants is an end to the bickering and quarrelling among the high lords.  If not a complete end at least he wants long periods of rest and peace.  The smallfolk needs a break from war.  Varys is also the kind who thinks the end justifies the means.  He knows the kingdoms can only be held together by strength.  Therefore he will throw his support to the one who has the strength to reforge the little kingdoms and hold them together.  By force if necessary.  A stern but consistent leader is necessary.  

[rotting sea cow]

14 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Why do we need GRRM when we have @Lord Varys himself posting on this very forum? 

I think @Lord Varys is mostly right regarding the assessment of his namesake behavior and motives. Most of it can be deduced from any careful reading of the books.

I think he's taking too much to the letter what the captains of the GC say regarding Varys and Illyrio's plans. They know more than most of people in the books but not enough to understand they are pushing for a particular narrative. I don't think the plan intended that Viserys and the GC should work together, rather the opposite. The idea was to create chaos in Westeros by for example revealing the twincest, once Robert go to war against the Westerlands, Viserys should invade with the Dothraki and eventually take the throne, making a very bad king, Mad King Aerys comes again. Under these circumstances you can make Aegon son-of-beloved-Rhaegar appear without raising too many questions.

Certainly the dead of Viserys left them without a clear plan, although the Lannisters and the Wo5K also can provide some motive. The born of the dragons certainly are good news if they are able to get a hold on Dany. Now, Westeros is in chaos and Varys will work to make sure there are no too many question regarding Aegon's parentage.

Regarding the motives. Well, certainly there is ample evidence about elements of the Blackfyre conspiracy in Illyrios/Varys plans. It might have been the initial motive. In some ways, I also think that Varys feels guilty about what fate fell over Rhaegar and his children and he's trying to remake the history and refight the old battles, which is btw also a running theme of the books (Doran & Tywin are also motivated by that).

The exact placement of these elements are at the moment only known to the author of the books.

 

 

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

I think he's taking too much to the letter what the captains of the GC say regarding Varys and Illyrio's plans. They know more than most of people in the books but not enough to understand they are pushing for a particular narrative. I don't think the plan intended that Viserys and the GC should work together, rather the opposite. The idea was to create chaos in Westeros by for example revealing the twincest, once Robert go to war against the Westerlands, Viserys should invade with the Dothraki and eventually take the throne, making a very bad king, Mad King Aerys comes again. Under these circumstances you can make Aegon son-of-beloved-Rhaegar appear without raising too many questions.

I'm not sure how it can make sense that Tristan Rivers would be mistaken about this. I mean, for him to believe that Viserys and the Dothraki would join them, somebody would have to tell him that. If nobody had told him then he should not believe that the Targaryen pretender the Golden Company wouldn't join in the past was their ally.

I'd also say that the idea that Varys/Illyrio could install or put forth a 'mad' Targaryen pretender who would then eventually be toppled or replaced by Aegon sounds and feels pretty stupid. I mean, another mad or tyrannical Targaryen pretender would badly reflect on the entire family, Aegon included. And considering the fact that the Targaryen had been deposed they could not afford that the Targaryens were associated with another mad king.

Thus I'd think that the original plan would have been to make Viserys not look bad and use him to make Aegon look more legitimate. During the campaign he would acknowledge Aegon as his nephew and presumptive heir and then he would have an accident, possibly only once the war is all but won so that Aegon would not be associated with whatever atrocities they have to commit to defeat their enemies. Viserys' cause could only profit from him having an older male heir in light of the fact that he lost Daenerys to the Dothraki and was so far unmarried and childless.

If Varys/Illyrio were really planning to have two Targaryen pretenders then they were setting themselves up to fail. And as we see they approach to the Mother of Dragons it is quite clear they do not want to set up Aegon and Dany as rivals.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Certainly the dead of Viserys left them without a clear plan, although the Lannisters and the Wo5K also can provide some motive. The born of the dragons certainly are good news if they are able to get a hold on Dany. Now, Westeros is in chaos and Varys will work to make sure there are no too many question regarding Aegon's parentage.

Any doubts about Aegon's identity were supposed to be removed by Aegon and Dany's marriage. Without that, quite a few people are likely going to doubt that Aegon is truly Rhaegar's son. If he is accepted by the Martells (and Arianne marries him) then this should strengthen his position to a point ... but not even remotely to the same degree as a marriage with Daenerys would.

Daenerys is the Mother of Dragons, her Targaryen identity and claim is beyond any doubt. As her consort Aegon could lay claim to the Iron Throne even if he weren't Rhaegar's son - like Euron wants to take the Iron Throne as Dany's husband.

On his own his position can easily get much more difficult.

[frenin]

On 3/6/2022 at 10:42 AM, The Jingo said:

In short, Varys wants Aegon to take the Throne either before people care about resisting (ideal option) or after people are too weak to resist(backup option). 

I doubt the first option was ever possible, the Baratheon faction was far too strong to go quietly and Aegon would have to make huge concessions for them not to test their luck. His plan was always to weaken the Baratheon faction, due to a Dothraki invasion, before Aegon could swoop in.

Realistically speaking, this timeline is the only one which YoungG has a clear shot at the throne, the Dothraki are unlikely to defeat a semi united Westeros and 10k mercs plus the Martells were unlikely do the trick anyway. That's if Doran were to take the gamble anyway which isn't a given.

 

On 3/7/2022 at 1:23 AM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

But if all he wants is a stable realm, why did he help preventing Rhaegar's plans instead of supporting him?

He did not do such thing tho, Rhaegar managed to destroy his  plans by himself with the help of daddy ofc. Not even Aerys going to Harrenhall was due to Varys.