Ukraine War Part 7: Delete your army

[Kalbear]

 

 

[Fez]

Economically, it's smaller than pretty much all the other sanctions that have occurred. But symbolically this is maybe the biggest. McDonalds opening in Pushkin Square in 1990 was basically *the* sign that the times were a-changing. This was the line to get in on opening day: https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/GKWSB4CCVEI6VGOHDX6UEQNC7Y.jpg&w=916

And now it's closed. At least temporarily.

[DMC]

@Maithanet

Quote

If we dial it down a bit and say that Putin domestic reasons were only one factor, then maybe that makes a little more sense.  I have to assume that Putin thought the military effort would be going significantly better and the Western response would be significantly weaker than it has been.  With those two erroneous assumptions onboard, then an additional benefit of bringing the oligarchs to heel as a result of expected western sanctions makes sense. 

Yeah I think this is how you reconcile the two.  Putin's goals were primarily internal AND he significantly misread the situation.  On Putin being naive, I guess overestimating your own military is naive, sure, but it's a pretty common mistake.  As for underestimating the west's response, while Putin was obviously wrong there too it did seem like a pretty reasonable bet, don't think I'd call that naive.

[Ghjhero]

Poland has announced they will be providing Ukraine with all of their MiG-29’s. The planes will be sent to Ramstein airbase in Germany where they will be stripped of NATO gear and refitting to be in line with standards Ukrainian pilots are used to before being sent onto Ukraine. As part of the deal the US will be refilling Poland’s Air Force with F-16’s. 

[Ran]

An interesting thread from a scholar providing what seems a fairly straightforward explanation for Putin's intentions:

The bit about self-sacrifice resonates strongly with some other things I've seen of late -- an acquaintance who's an expat Russian who remarked on his country's image of itself as one where suffering is natural on behalf of the greater good and the great leader, and a lecture from a former Finnish intelligence officer and scholar where he applies theories of strategic culture to explain Russia's motivations:

He mentions the opera "Ivan Susanin", about a serf sacrificing himself for the Tsar, which apparently was featured on a commemorative stamp released in 2004. Interesting stuff, especially attempting to draw a sense of continuity across Russian culture going back many centuries.

[Fez]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

@Maithanet

Yeah I think this is how you reconcile the two.  Putin's goals were primarily internal AND he significantly misread the situation.  On Putin being naive, I guess overestimating your own military is naive, sure, but it's a pretty common mistake.  As for underestimating the west's response, while Putin was obviously wrong there too it did seem like a pretty reasonable bet, don't think I'd call that naive.

The more glaring part to me is underestimating Ukraine's resiliency. Thinking NATO would be complacent was a pretty safe bet that didn't work out (and maybe would've if the war was fait accompli on day 2). But Putin should've had extremely accurate information about Ukraine; it's right next door and until two weeks ago there were large parts of the population that would've willingly told Russian authorities all sorts of info.

[Werthead]

The UK and USA have cut off energy imports from Russia, the USA has also banned all investments in Russian energy and the jet deal has been done, meaning that at some point the aircraft will be flown from a US airbase to Ukrainian territory, which is something of a challenge to Putin's suggestion that this sort of thing might be seen as NATO taking a stand.

A cool head would acknowledge that UK and US energy imports are very low and 23 MiGs are not going to change the balance of the conflict in a major way. However, a canny retaliatory move would be shutting off the gas pipeline to Germany, to try to split Germany from the other allied nations and get them into an argument with the USA.

[Kalbear]

I'm assuming this is part of the trade deal for Russell Wilson too

 

 

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

The more glaring part to me is underestimating Ukraine's resiliency. Thinking NATO would be complacent was a pretty safe bet that didn't work out (and maybe would've if the war was fait accompli on day 2). But Putin should've had extremely accurate information about Ukraine; it's right next door and until two weeks ago there were large parts of the population that would've willingly told Russian authorities all sorts of info.

Yes, Russia should have had a better read on Ukranian resistance and how the situation had changed since 2014 (plenty of Western observers were well aware of how much stronger Ukraine's military grew in the past 8 years).  But Russia's military shortcomings also should have been known.  Many Western observers have said that the Ukrainians are meeting expectations, it is the Russians who are (for many reasons) unable to sweep them aside.  The Russian Air Force cannot establish air supremacy.  Russian troops have poor morale and little food.  Army equipment is 20-30 years old and is breaking down in the first week.  Supply shortages are everywhere.  Things always go wrong in war, but this is well beyond that.

That's why I would describe Russia/Putin as suffering from hubris bordering on naivety.  The entire plan feels like it was based on everything going right.  If that's your war plan, regardless of what country you are and your military capabilities, then you are being naive. 

[Werthead]

Apparently another series of lengthy calls between Putin, the Israeli PM and Zelensky today.

I'm trying to work out exactly how many offramps need to be lowered before someone will take them. That analysis upthread saying that Putin needs "something that can be framed as a legacy-enhancing victory" I think is on the mark. Getting Ukraine (and Sweden, if you want to frame it that way) agreeing not to being in NATO, "demilitarising the country" at least in part and getting Ukrainian recognition for Crimea arguably does that, especially Crimea (as it takes if off the *annexed by Russia list on maps).

The question is what Ukraine is prepared to do and give up.

[Fez]

1 minute ago, Werthead said:

The question is what Ukraine is prepared to do and give up.

Zelensky quoted both Shakespeare and Churchill in his speech to the UK Commons today, so at least publicly the answer on what to give up appears to be "not much".

[Zorral]

2 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The question is what Ukraine is prepared to do and give up.

And if Ukraine, the victim here, isn't prepared to give up much, Putin can successfully reframe himself, again, as the victim of an aggressor, and run psyop, propoganda, cyber, troll and bot campaigns internationally on that.

 

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Zelensky quoted both Shakespeare and Churchill in his speech to the UK Commons today, so at least publicly the answer on what to give up appears to be "not much".

Right now Zelensky is acting as if time is on his side.  I don't know if he's right, but he could be.  I hope he is. 

[Werthead]

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Zelensky quoted both Shakespeare and Churchill in his speech to the UK Commons today, so at least publicly the answer on what to give up appears to be "not much".

I think there are some differences. A reliable peace deal with Russia returns things to the way they were before the invasion. Anything that evicts Russian troops from Ukraine, even if they're convinced they'll come back a few years down the line, buys Ukraine time to better prepare.

Furthermore, I think Putin himself might see an existential threat to his life if he calls off the war without something solid to show for it. So a peace deal that Putin agrees to and is also not an existential challenge to Ukraine has to be worth considering, especially if it falls into the sphere of things Ukraine was willing to talk about a month ago: neutrality, recognition of Crimea, maybe recognition of Luhansk-Donetsk (if conditional on a UN-monitored vote etc). Demilitarisation, partition or surrender of the government I think remain big no-nos.

[Red Tiger]

11 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I think there are some differences. A reliable peace deal with Russia returns things to the way they were before the invasion. Anything that evicts Russian troops from Ukraine, even if they're convinced they'll come back a few years down the line, buys Ukraine time to better prepare.

What preparations could they make?

[DireWolfSpirit]

I will do my share with the smallest of sacrifices compared to what Ukrainians are experiencing.

Screw your oil Putin, I will gladly pay more elsewhere!

 

Biden making a U.S. ban on Russian oil, official just hours ago.

https://news.yahoo.com/biden-us-to-ban-russian-oil-imports-ukraine-war-163729208.html

[JGP]

Well duh. It's all fucking poker. International pressure right now is not going to be focused entirely upon the Russian State. Now Biden has to look at his hand. 

[Fez]

Advice from Syria's White Helmets to Ukraine https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/08/syria-white-helmets-want-to-help-ukraine-against-russian-military/

There's a lot of very specific advice, some of which Ukraine is likely already learning. Such as after an aerial bombing you generally have 7 to 9 minutes for medical response before the area gets bombed again.

There's also this:

Quote

There are some things the Syrians have learned not to do. Do not give GPS locations of medical facilities to the United Nations, which may claim it needs the information to keep them safe. The Russians will use that information to target them.  Never let Moscow have any say or control over how humanitarian aid is distributed, even when it’s a U.N. program. The Kremlin will use that power to starve out civilian populations, as it is doing in Syria now.

The UN is totally broken.

[Kalbear]

If putin has banked Ukraine as his legacy then there really is no offramp. It is only whether the rest of the world can contest it successfully. 

[Maithanet]

I don't know who Pashka is, but I thought that cartoon was fitting.