Ukraine War Part 7: Delete your army

[JGP]

 

[Kalbear]

To be clear this is probably going to be okay (the mig thing) but the coordination and messaging is almost as bad as Russian army logistics 

[JGP]

I see it as Poland trying to force the US' hand, but instead of running with it... dude. The US could've left Poland HANGING and it still would've been better messaging than this [sad laugh] 

[Werthead]

To be fair, I think they're calculating that the benefit (23, or 27 including the trainers, MiGs are not going to turn the tide of the war) is not worth the risk (a Putin shitfit).

Simultaneously and possibly far more significantly, Ukraine has basically just said that it will not be in a position to join NATO for 15 years and has asked the US and Turkey to act as security guarantors in an agreement that would also require the agreement of Russia.

That's a fairly significant step forward for Ukraine towards something vaguely acceptable to the Russian spoken position. If the Russians give a shit, of course. I suspect the Russians would argue that the US is unacceptable as a security guarantor (the US I suspect would be very concerned about that), but their good terms with Turkey might make them vaguely acceptable as a partner (Turkey's very weird simultaneous Putin-massaging stance whilst also being in NATO notwithstanding). Turkish and Russian forces were carrying out a joint anti-terrorist operation in northern Syria today, apparently, underlining the oddness of Turkey's position.

[DMC]

I think it's important to keep in mind things are very fluid right now.  The Biden administration was against an oil ban until, like, Saturday.

[Werthead]

Just now, DMC said:

I think it's important to keep in mind things are very fluid right now.  The Biden administration was against an oil ban until, like, Saturday.

Yeah, history is happening in live 5-minute bursts at the moment. It's like if 9/11 was 2+ weeks long.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

I believe Russia will only resort to a full-scale nuclear strike if it faces an existential threat. 

And if Putin can no longer separate himself from Russia? If that's the case and the speculations are true that he fears for his life if he fails (I've stated before I think these are overblown), why would he backdown at all?  

[Werthead]

12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And if Putin can no longer separate himself from Russia? If that's the case and the speculations are true that he fears for his life if he fails (I've stated before I think these are overblown), why would he backdown at all?  

Precisely. I mean, that's the fear and why the safest/fastest way out of this is to give him something he can portray as a win, even if it's not the win he really wanted (but never spelled out).

The question is to what degree the inner circle knows what Putin wants, but if the rumours are true, Putin planned the entire thing with the head of the army and a couple of other people, and most other people (even in the FSB) had no idea it was going to go down. On that basis, pretty much no-one bar Putin and maybe Shoigu really knew the ultimate objectives and if they had failed, and Shoigu is so loyal to Putin that the idea of him turning on him seems ludicrous (the fact he hasn't been fired for the poor performance of the troops may also be telling as to his position as one of Putin's most trusted confidantes).

[Winterfell is Burning]

8 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Precisely. I mean, that's the fear and why the safest/fastest way out of this is to give him something he can portray as a win, even if it's not the win he really wanted (but never spelled out).

The question is to what degree the inner circle knows what Putin wants, but if the rumours are true, Putin planned the entire thing with the head of the army and a couple of other people, and most other people (even in the FSB) had no idea it was going to go down. On that basis, pretty much no-one bar Putin and maybe Shoigu really knew the ultimate objectives and if they had failed, and Shoigu is so loyal to Putin that the idea of him turning on him seems ludicrous (the fact he hasn't been fired for the poor performance of the troops may also be telling as to his position as one of Putin's most trusted confidantes).

One has to keep in mind that Shoigu due to his ethnicity quite probably would not be accepted as president by a lot of people in Russia, if not most. 

And of course when Putin dies, if he's still in power, his succession likely will be a free for all and who knows who takes over.

[mcbigski]

2 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

What the actual

 

Blinken and Rubio were floating the Mig story over the weekend.  Considering that US intelligence was also telling China a few months back that Ukraine was a shoo-in for NATO membership, presumably expecting that to be shared with Putin, and probably instigating the whole invasion, this was probably another attempt by the US government to escalate things and get the war machine up and running again.  Seems to me Poland is essentially saying here "This is a crazy idea and escalation.  If the US wants to escalate things, then the US can escalate things yourselves.  We're not going to be your patsy."

Considering how Covid is over (or at least way back burnered) and it's mostly Ukraine in the news now, I expect that they're just chipping away at us all with the media so that it won't seem like such a big step once the US commits forces.  I hope I'm wrong, but when you've got executive branch, senate and the intelligence deep state all working in conjuction with media, that's probably bad for the regular folks, and we're going to somehow end up involved in a war ourselves.  You really can't beat that sort of emergency power, amiright?

[mcbigski]

Just now, mcbigski said:

Blinken and Rubio were floating the Mig story over the weekend.  Considering that US intelligence was also telling China a few months back that Ukraine was a shoo-in for NATO membership, presumably expecting that to be shared with Putin, and probably instigating the whole invasion, this was probably another attempt by the US government to escalate things and get the war machine up and running again.  Seems to me Poland is essentially saying here "This is a crazy idea and escalation.  If the US wants to escalate things, then the US can escalate things yourselves.  We're not going to be your patsy."  (That's the subtext from "you fly the jets under your color from your base and leave us out of it.")

Considering how Covid is over (or at least way back burnered) and it's mostly Ukraine in the news now, I expect that they're just chipping away at us all with the media so that it won't seem like such a big step once the US commits forces.  I hope I'm wrong, but when you've got executive branch, senate and the intelligence deep state all working in conjuction with media, that's probably bad for the regular folks, and we're going to somehow end up involved in a war ourselves.  They're just going to have to try another tact.  You really can't beat that sort of emergency power, amiright?

 

[SpaceChampion]

Sounds like the Russians aren't having much luck jamming Starlink.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

24 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The question is to what degree the inner circle knows what Putin wants, but if the rumours are true, Putin planned the entire thing with the head of the army and a couple of other people, and most other people (even in the FSB) had no idea it was going to go down. On that basis, pretty much no-one bar Putin and maybe Shoigu really knew the ultimate objectives and if they had failed, and Shoigu is so loyal to Putin that the idea of him turning on him seems ludicrous (the fact he hasn't been fired for the poor performance of the troops may also be telling as to his position as one of Putin's most trusted confidantes).

How much does it matter at this point? His inner circle (whatever of it still exists) is a few military and government officials and the elite of the elite oligarchs. The former are probably more sober about the situation and the latter probably just want their toys back. I know we disagree, but I really do think Putin can come back with little more than symbolic wins and still be fine. Because...

14 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

And of course when Putin dies, if he's still in power, his succession likely will be a free for all and who knows who takes over.

This problem will not be lost on those with the ability to overthrow him either. A post-Putin Russia without a succession plan will be an absolute shitshow, especially if it happens rapidly. As of this moment I find this more concerning than Putin actually using nukes. 

[Corvinus85]

45 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

Sounds like the Russians aren't having much luck jamming Starlink.

 

They can't stop the signal, Mal.

[Fez]

2 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

I see it as Poland trying to force the US' hand, but instead of running with it... dude. The US could've left Poland HANGING and it still would've been better messaging than this [sad laugh] 

I wonder to what extent this is also the Pentagon not being able to source 27 F-16s to give to Poland quickly. The US has so many that I feel like it should be an easy lift, but maybe all the current ones have dedicated assignments already that they don't want to cancel. And if all the ones currently in production are already promised to other countries. The US might be trying to work out a contract with Lockheed Martin right now and doesn't want to be bent over a barrel by them on the price.

Which, even if that's the case, I feel like there's better ways to communicate what's going on.

[DMC]

19 minutes ago, Fez said:

I wonder to what extent this is also the Pentagon not being able to source 27 F-16s to give to Poland quickly.

I think the hangup has much more to do with Poland saying we'll send them to Ramstein then you figure out all the logistical, legal, and diplomatic potential quagmires.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, mcbigski said:

Blinken and Rubio were floating the Mig story over the weekend.  Considering that US intelligence was also telling China a few months back that Ukraine was a shoo-in for NATO membership, presumably expecting that to be shared with Putin, and probably instigating the whole invasion, this was probably another attempt by the US government to escalate things and get the war machine up and running again.  Seems to me Poland is essentially saying here "This is a crazy idea and escalation.  If the US wants to escalate things, then the US can escalate things yourselves.  We're not going to be your patsy."

Considering how Covid is over (or at least way back burnered) and it's mostly Ukraine in the news now, I expect that they're just chipping away at us all with the media so that it won't seem like such a big step once the US commits forces.  I hope I'm wrong, but when you've got executive branch, senate and the intelligence deep state all working in conjuction with media, that's probably bad for the regular folks, and we're going to somehow end up involved in a war ourselves.  You really can't beat that sort of emergency power, amiright?

The “Deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeppppp Staaaaaaaaaaaaaate” :cue ominous music:

Please provide documentation for “US Intelligence telling China Ukraine was a shoo-in for NATO membership.”

(remember OAN, Newsmax, and YouTube videos don’t count)

[mcbigski]

35 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The “Deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeppppp Staaaaaaaaaaaaaate” :cue ominous music:

Please provide documentation for “US Intelligence telling China Ukraine was a shoo-in for NATO membership.”

(remember OAN, Newsmax, and YouTube videos don’t count)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/

There's a NYT article that talks about intelligence sharing with China in regards to stopping a war in Ukraine, but it's behind the paywall, though either you connect the dots of the US ratcheting up the pro-war rhetoric over the past several weeks and months, or you don't.  

Lindsay Graham says someone should assassinate Putin. (To her credit, Ilhan Omar had the correct response to that.) 

Poland is going to send Migs to Ukraine, according to Rubio and Blinken, though not Poland.

We have a full court press Two Minutes Hate in the media, cancelling Russian chess players, opera singers, athletes and even cat breeds.  (Kind of amazed no one is tearing down any statues of Lenin yet.)   

There's a lot of narrative manipulation going on in the US, and it's all leading to escalation.  

If Biden really wanted to defang Putin, he could reverse course and make the US an energy exporter.  Insufficient opportunity for graft there though relative to negotiating for Iranian or Venzuelan oil, I suspect.

[JGP]

It's almost dazzling how easily the Zelenskyy government shames the international community by being the better exemplar.  

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

There's a NYT article that talks about intelligence sharing with China in regards to stopping a war in Ukraine, but it's behind the paywall, though either you connect the dots of the US ratcheting up the pro-war rhetoric over the past several weeks and months, or you don't.  

Um, the US "deep state" shared that intelligence with, literally, the entire fucking world.  They were ratcheting up the "pro-war rhetoric" because they thought Putin was going to invade before anyone else did, and they tried multiple times to get China to help stop that from happening.  None of that has to do with them telling China Ukraine was gonna join NATO anytime soon.