Ukraine War Part 7: Delete your army

[Fez]

Specifics on the supplementary funding for Ukraine in the overall US budget bill are out: https://appropriations.house.gov/sites/democrats.appropriations.house.gov/files/Ukraine Supplemental Summary.pdf

It is $13.6 billion total; $3.5 billion in direct military equipment, a $3 billion defense slush fund that can be used for additional military equipment or other DOD support, $3 billion for increased US military expenses which may aid Ukraine (like intel support), $2.65 billion in humanitarian aid, and the rest is a variety of other assistance or other related US programs (e..g, $5 million to prosecute sanctions violators).

[Werthead]

11 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

What are the chances that everyone will agree for the people of the respective regions to hold referendums about whether or not they should be part of Ukraine and whether or not they should be independent or part of Russia? I believe Crimea already had one in 2014 but besides Russia everyone else called it rigged. Still, if all sides agreed and the agreement included international oversight of the referendums, shouldn't it be considered?

Apart from the problem of a vote being held after the local population has been disrupted and driven out, it also sets a dangerous (for Russia) precedent. The next time they pull some shit, people will be like, "Well, why not have a UN-overseen free vote in that area?" when the results are not as guaranteed to go Russia's way.

[DMC]

50 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

Yeah, there would have to be some real safety guarantees, like UN forces on the border with Crimea and Donbas or something.

If they want real security guarantees then UN forces is not the place to look.

45 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

would prefer the US just hold on to them and give them to Ukraine at a time when the situation is less volatile. 

Seen speculation, which makes some sense, that they want to retain the threat of this escalation as leverage for negotiations.

47 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

And then immediately replace it with the New Awesome Treaty Organisation and invite Ukraine to join as a founding member.

It's a wonder you're not on the National Security Council.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

 

Pickled Tomatoes take out Russian Drone.  Sometimes you don't need high tech weapons.

[3CityApache]

20 minutes ago, DMC said:

If they want real security guarantees then UN forces is not the place to look.

Of course I'm not suggesting UN forces would actually do anything about potential second invasion, I marely point out their presence on the borders might stop Russians from crossing them or at least give them pause. But I agree it's far from being a solid guarantee. Not to mention someone would have to cover costs of such operation. 

 

[Maithanet]

The impression of the people I've been following on Twitter is that the Russian army in the past few days has been mostly resupplying and consolidating their positions.  Overall, the strategic situation for Ukraine is growing worse with Mariupol surrounded, Kiev nearly so, and several meaningful pieces of the Ukrainian military under threat of encirclement. 

I hope this isn't a gradual turning of the tide, but that feels possible.  Russia is almost guaranteed to win a war of attrition since they have more than 5x the tanks and planes.  That's not to say that Russia can actually hold or occupy Ukraine (they can't).  Even storming and capturing major cities like Kyiv and Odesa may not be possible with the current forces.  But the Russian strategy of encircling or bypassing major cities along with the gradual destruction of the Ukrainian military may strengthen their negotiating position in the coming week or two. 

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

Of course I'm not suggesting UN forces would actually do anything about potential second invasion, I marely point out their presence on the borders might stop Russians from crossing them or at least give them pause. But I agree it's far from being a solid guarantee. Not to mention someone would have to cover costs of such operation. 

Yeah I get your point, mostly being a smartass.  But it does underline the reality that there's not really a feasible peacekeeping force Ukraine is likely to view as credible.

[Werthead]

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah I get your point, mostly being a smartass.  But it does underline the reality that there's not really a feasible peacekeeping force Ukraine is likely to view as credible.

Ukraine did say they would consider a Turkish peacekeeping force credible, and Turkey is cooperating with Russia in Syria (even undertaking joint military operations). But, of course, Turkey is in NATO and has been supplying Ukraine with drones. So it's unclear if Russia would accept that. Erdogan and Putin do seem to have some kind of mutual respect thing going on that he doesn't have with too many other people, though, so it's maybe as opposed to the straight up no if it was American or NATO peacekeepers.

[broken one]

1 hour ago, polishgenius said:

I think Ukraine should sign a treaty agreeing never to join NATO. And then we should disband NATO.


And then immediately replace it with the New Awesome Treaty Organisation and invite Ukraine to join as a founding member. 

I love the concept, it is 100% "Putin style".

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine did say they would consider a Turkish peacekeeping force credible, and Turkey is cooperating with Russia in Syria (even undertaking joint military operations). But, of course, Turkey is in NATO and has been supplying Ukraine with drones. So it's unclear if Russia would accept that.

Aye that certainly sounds like the most feasible possibility, but still skeptical Russia would go for it.  Also skeptical Turkey would want to commit such an investment/put themselves on the line like that.

[Zorral]

As we know, Donbass, like all of the Dneiper River region, is an archaeological treasure trove for prehistoric and ancient history of peoples speaking pre- and proto Indo European languages, agriculture, herding, horse-human history, including the wheel, warfare in chariots and on horseback -- all foundational to what will become European cultures. Crimean sites as well. Soviet development and wars have destroyed many invaluable sites.  Just a this one is.  Often this destruction is intentional.

It's tragic irony, that the closer it seems we come to the destruction of humanity as we've known it, the more determined we are to destroy humanity's history too.

 

 

[Fez]

The amount is so tiny that it's strictly symbolic, but this would seem to me to be a warning to Putin:

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

There is growing concern about Russia not following 'rules of engagement' for this war. From the ever present nuclear threat to increasing concern they may use chemical/biological weapons. Not to forget the thermobaric weapons that they already used.

Add to that are the bombing of hospitals and the ridiculous nature of the ceasefire/evacuations so far and it doesnt paint a pretty picture. I fear Putin has condemned an entire generation of Russians to be pariahs, in addition to setting back his country many decades.

Not to minimize this conflict, but it also sets us back on the goal to defeat climate change where a unified front is crucial (its an existential crisis). Particularly bad timing since our window was pretty small for it.

[Fez]

29 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I fear Putin has condemned an entire generation of Russians to be pariahs, in addition to setting back his country many decades.

Going back decades appears to be a feature, not a bug.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I have to agree, it's hard to see how Russia and Russians will have normal relations with most of the world while Putin is still in power and for some period after he leaves. Bombing hospitals and killing fleeing civilians you promised safe passage to is not something the world will forget.

[Larry of the Lawn]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I have to agree, it's hard to see how Russia and Russians will have normal relations with most of the world while Putin is still in power and for some period after he leaves. Bombing hospitals and killing fleeing civilians you promised safe passage to is not something the world will forget.

Maybe.  Oil does wonders to change perspective on atrocity.  It's not as if this would be the first time a country did something horrific and then things went more or less back to normal.  

[Red Tiger]

 

[DMC]

The dog kicked them out, the old couple were just backup.

[Derfel Cadarn]

29 minutes ago, Larry of the Lake said:

Maybe.  Oil does wonders to change perspective on atrocity.  It's not as if this would be the first time a country did something horrific and then things went more or less back to normal.  

Depends. The west may lift sanctions to help secure peace, but if most of the public insist on non-Russian oil, that conpanies like Macdonalds don’t do business woth Russia, if sports teams and organisations refuse to play Russian teams, then there’s not much Putin can do

[A Horse Named Stranger]