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Ukraine 8


Werthead

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4 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

Per reporting I heard on NPR earlier today Kiev has about two weeks worth of food left, and even less medical supplies.

That's a much scarier end to the war than I think a lot of people are talking about. Russia being able to deny major cities actual food and just keep bombing it to rubble is a way for them to 'win' in some way, or at least put massive pressure to settle things. 

Kyiv has had "one to two weeks" of food since the war started; the news today was that city authorities were confident that they had increased it to definitely two weeks. But the city is no danger of running out of food unless Russia can cut off the supply lines, and right now there's no indication that they have the ability to do that.

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3 minutes ago, Fez said:

Kyiv has had "one to two weeks" of food since the war started; the news today was that city authorities were confident that they had increased it to definitely two weeks. But the city is no danger of running out of food unless Russia can cut off the supply lines, and right now there's no indication that they have the ability to do that.

Yes, the food situation sounds pretty dire in Mariupol and only a bit better in Kharkiv.  Kyiv's food situation is concerning, but nonetheless better than a lot of places in the eastern half of Ukraine. 

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6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Yes, the food situation sounds pretty dire in Mariupol and only a bit better in Kharkiv.  Kyiv's food situation is concerning, but nonetheless better than a lot of places in the eastern half of Ukraine. 

Mariupol sounds awful; less sure how bad the food situation is in Kharkiv. It's also not clear how bad it is in the occupied cities like Kherson; but the scattered reports are that Russians are looting food for themselves, not setting up supply lines for civilians.

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Not very pleasant to have this war going on, North Korea renewing missile tests (some reports they might do another test imminently) and the Iran-Israel sabre-rattling reinforcing all happening simultaneously.

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Some good news. 4,000 civilians were evacuated from Ukrainian towns under fire or siege. It seems some of the local ceasefires between Russian and Ukrainian forces have actually held a few times with nobody breaking them, which is an improvement on a few days ago.

Apparently 160 vehicles were even allowed to evacuate Mariupol.

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The China-US meeting today in Italy was apparently quite tough on this matter. The Chinese line is that they have not received such a request, which to me sounds like they probably have but they have not granted it, no matter how much "positivity" they projected.

The lack of SAM missiles (not systems, btw, but reloads) is telling that the Russians may be running low on their own AA systems, explaining why the Ukrainian Air Force and drones are continuing to run riot over the Russian positions.

The lack of jeeps, armoured vehicles etc is really weird. That's stuff Russia should have in abundance.

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"Ivan Ilyin, Putin’s Philosopher of Russian Fascism" by Timothy Snyder  March 16, 2018 

"Ivan Ilyin provided a metaphysical and moral justification for political totalitarianism, which he expressed in practical outlines for a fascist state. Today, his ideas have been revived and celebrated by Vladimir Putin"

This is an expanded version of Timothy Snyder’s essay “God Is a Russian” in the April 5, 2018 issue of The New York Review.
 

Quote

 

Ivan Ilyin, circa 1920

    “The fact of the matter is that fascism is a redemptive excess of patriotic arbitrariness.”

    —Ivan Ilyin, 1927

    “My prayer is like a sword. And my sword is like a prayer.”

    —Ivan Ilyin, 1927

    “Politics is the art of identifying and neutralizing the enemy.”

    —Ivan Ilyin, 1948

 

A more condensed version of Snyder's seminal piece here:

"Vladimir Putin’s politics of eternity
Since consolidating his power in rigged elections at the start of the decade, the Russian leader has pioneered a politics of fictional threats and invented enemies"
by Timothy Snyder  March 18, 2018

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/16/vladimir-putin-russia-politics-of-eternity-timothy-snyder

Snyder refutes Fool Fukuyama and Media, already, in 2018:

 

Quote

Americans and Europeans kept telling themselves their tales of inevitability for a quarter-century after the end of communism, and so raised a millennial generation without history.

Other references to and excerpts from Synder's longer piece, and Ivan Ilyin's writings can be found on the internet too by simple googling.

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20 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The China-US meeting today in Italy was apparently quite tough on this matter. The Chinese line is that they have not received such a request, which to me sounds like they probably have but they have not granted it, no matter how much "positivity" they projected.

Sounds to me like a lot of promises in real-life, where someone says "I'll do this for you...later", and later never arrives. They just want you off their back.

Regarding the paucity of jeeps, maybe they have 'supply chain issues' as well. The chip shortage made dealerships here in US have low inventories of vehicles, who knows if the Russians couldnt overcome them?

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1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Regarding the paucity of jeeps, maybe they have 'supply chain issues' as well. The chip shortage made dealerships here in US have low inventories of vehicles, who knows if the Russians couldnt overcome them?

I would think that countries that are worried about EMP would favor mechanical control systems, but there's a likelihood that Russian procurement is even more corrupt than the US.  Heard at least one report a week or to ago that the Russian convoy on its way to Kiev was having fuel shortages.  Which could be a real bitch in a war zone.  How do you refuel the front on a road with with 20 miles of vehicles out of gas and blocking the way?  I think the Russians should have equipped their invasion vehicles with solar power. 

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That would make them advance about 2 miles or so (not sure if you were being facetious, but vehicles are too big to be exclusively powered by solar power via panels or what have you).

I think I made a comment couple threads ago about how the Russian invasion was similar to Patton's Third Army advance from France into Germany (they ran out of fuel too). He made about 50 miles in 3 months.

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47 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

That would make them advance about 2 miles or so (not sure if you were being facetious, but vehicles are too big to be exclusively powered by solar power via panels or what have you).

I think I made a comment couple threads ago about how the Russian invasion was similar to Patton's Third Army advance from France into Germany (they ran out of fuel too). He made about 50 miles in 3 months.

I was thinking of the monorail episode of the Simpsons, so facetious to be sure.  Though a few miles a day is still moving forward.  Probably not worth the trade off of going hybrid, but in a total breakdown of supply, that would still have have value.

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23 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

I was thinking of the monorail episode of the Simpsons, so facetious to be sure.  Though a few miles a day is still moving forward.  Probably not worth the trade off of going hybrid, but in a total breakdown of supply, that would still have have value.

I call the big one Bitey.

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29 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Just saw this.  Anyone else see any confirmation?  The thread below indicates a Russian Drone moved into Polish airspace crossed back into Ukraine and was then shot down.

https://twitter.com/jon96179496/status/1503547142488608770?s=21

twitter aggressively polices fake news, so its got to be truthy, at a minimum.  Otherwise he'd have gotten the ban hammer.

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1 hour ago, mcbigski said:

twitter aggressively polices fake news, so its got to be truthy, at a minimum.  Otherwise he'd have gotten the ban hammer.

Trump tweeted over 57000 times. They aren't that aggressive. 

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9 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

Or maybe you can't, they just don't know it yet. 

Seriously though, why do they go there? 

As EU representatives. The visit has been decided in Versailles at the last European Council meeting.

 

Kaczyński goes there too :P shame, they sould have sent him to Mariupol.

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