Ukraine 8

[SeanF]

According to Luttwak, Putin's forces are in real trouble outside Kiev.

Either his armour enters the city, taking heavy casualties.  Or, they remain outside, being hit by drones.

[Loge]

25 minutes ago, SeanF said:

According to Luttwak, Putin's forces are in real trouble outside Kiev.

Either his armour enters the city, taking heavy casualties.  Or, they remain outside, being hit by drones.

They're in trouble everywhere. Ukraine claims to have disabled 40% of the whole invasion force. Whatever the real numbers are, the Russians have advanced through territory they don't control and their air force isn't exactly doing a great job supporting them. They are by and large stuck to the roads and open to attack. Add the overstretched supply lines and their prospects aren't good. 

[broken one]

I've read an interview with a military analyst, he said number of Russian KIA given by Ukrainians is exaggerated a lot and it should be divided at least by 2 , so it is useless for analysys. On the other hand the number of destroyed/captured tanks, trucks, infantry vehicles and such they blazon is probably quite realistic.

[Werthead]

The diplomatic words are flying fast and there's some tough phrasing, but no walk-outs.

Russia has confirmed it is no longer requesting a "demilitarised" Ukraine and is now willing to accept a neutral Ukraine which maintains its own army and navy on "the Austrian model." The Ukrainians have responded that they will not operate on a pre-existing template and want a bespoke deal for Ukraine that respects Ukrainian sovereignty (some rumours that Ukraine has asked for the UK to act as a security guarantor, which the Russians shot down immediately, and Ukraine may have asked for the Russians to offer an alternative guarantor that would be acceptable; Turkey or Israel?). Putin then responded that he is not sure about how the negotiations are going and seemed downbeat. Lavrov - normally so depressed that he makes Eyeore look like he's on crack - then positively said he thinks a compromise is possible.

When negotiators start getting huffy about phrasing but not the overall direction of travel, that's a positive sign a deal is within reach. If, as reports are suggesting, the Ukrainians are pushing Russian forces back from Kyiv, denying the ability for a "last-ditch" attack on Kyiv to decide the matter militarily, that might encourage a deal to be struck ASAP. Or it might encourage Putin to double down.

There were signs overnight that the Russian Navy and marines were preparing for an attack on Odesa, but their minesweeper seemed to get bogged down off the coast. The counter-attacks in the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions may have also discouraged them from trying to make a landing with no land support. We know morale is poor. There are also reports that Russian troops from the first days of the war have in some cases been recycled out to their home barracks and some of them have submitted letters of resignation or flat-out refusing to return to Ukraine until the problems with supplies and logistics are resolved by the command staff.

Some reports of a Ukrainian push on Trosyanets, possibly a move to push back the relatively weak Russian front between Sumy and Kharkiv. 

[Fez]

39 minutes ago, broken one said:

I've read an interview with a military analyst, he said number of Russian KIA given by Ukrainians is exaggerated a lot and it should be divided at least by 2 , so it is useless for analysys. On the other hand the number of destroyed/captured tanks, trucks, infantry vehicles and such they blazon is probably quite realistic.

The equipment at least is mostly backed up by photo, video, or satellite evidence. Even if not every loss has been documented, enough have to out the Ukrainian estimates at least in the ballpark of being right. For instance, there's satellite images out now showing a bunch more Russian helicopters were destroyed at Kherson airbase yesterday.

The casualties though, of all types, are much harder to pin down. Western estimates, while still below Ukraine's, have increased quite a bit in the past week; while Ukraine's estimates have only slightly increased further. I think there's sometimes translation errors too, where Ukraine is referring to all casualties but it gets reported as all being KIA.

[Werthead]

Some rumours that the deal will include a quid pro quo: Ukraine will not be able to join NATO but will be free to pursue a closer economic relationship with the EU. Ukraine has wanted part of the deal to show that Ukraine retains sovereignty in economic areas because it is giving up some sovereignty over its defensive sphere, plus that massive reconstruction bill.

WTF: The Russian government is apparently instructing the regional governments to prepare celebrations for the troops and the special operation in Ukraine. Possibly a "victory" celebration pending the end of hostilities?

It's way too easy to get carried away here with optimism.

[Loge]

Putin can always land on an aircraft carrier and declare mission accomplished. Or could, if Russia had a functioning aircraft carrier.

[Werthead]

Zelensky's speech to the US Congress. He downplays a no-fly zone in favour of asking for more AA weapons.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Here is video of Ukrainian defenses engaging and taking down several Russian aircraft:

https://youtu.be/X2Texp-2QkA

[Heartofice]

21 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Some rumours that the deal will include a quid pro quo: Ukraine will not be able to join NATO but will be free to pursue a closer economic relationship with the EU. Ukraine has wanted part of the deal to show that Ukraine retains sovereignty in economic areas because it is giving up some sovereignty over its defensive sphere, plus that massive reconstruction bill.

WTF: The Russian government is apparently instructing the regional governments to prepare celebrations for the troops and the special operation in Ukraine. Possibly a "victory" celebration pending the end of hostilities?

It's way too easy to get carried away here with optimism.

You can maybe see how Putin can spin this as some sort of victory, but you'd really have to be bashed over the head with his propaganda stick to believe it. Ukraine was never likely to join NATO in the first place, so there is no gain there, but I guess you can convince Russians that they were and it's been averted. 

Surely any sort of victory for Putin would need to involve some sort of territorial gains, even if they are recognising areas as 'independent'. If he doesn't get that and a recognition of Crimea as part of Russia then that is an absolute humiliation.

 

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Here is video of Ukrainian defenses engaging and taking down several Russian aircraft:

https://youtu.be/X2Texp-2QkA

That's video game footage from ARMA3.

[Heartofice]

Just now, Werthead said:

That's video game footage from ARMA3.

ARMA 3 isn't even a new game! The graphics were never very good. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 minutes ago, Werthead said:

That's video game footage from ARMA3.

The graphics are excellent.  

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, Heartofice said:

You can maybe see how Putin can spin this as some sort of victory, but you'd really have to be bashed over the head with his propaganda stick to believe it. Ukraine was never likely to join NATO in the first place, so there is no gain there, but I guess you can convince Russians that they were and it's been averted. 

Surely any sort of victory for Putin would need to involve some sort of territorial gains, even if they are recognising areas as 'independent'. If he doesn't get that and a recognition of Crimea as part of Russia then that is an absolute humiliation.

That's part of the deal, not all of it. Absolutely Ukraine will recognise Crimea, and I suspect will recognise Luhansk and Donetsk as well, but with a question mark over the borders (particularly the disposition of Mariupol).

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

46 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Lavrov - normally so depressed that he makes Eyeore look like he's on crack 

Now that's a line.

22 minutes ago, Loge said:

Putin can always land on an aircraft carrier and declare mission accomplished. Or could, if Russia had a functioning aircraft carrier.

Offer to throw in a XXXL codpiece. How can he refuse?

[Ran]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The graphics are excellent.  

Yes, though the smoothness of it all is a giveaway. The ones that work best is when they post-process to try and make it look like it's from a phone camera or something.

That said, glancing at that, one thing we haven't really seen in this war, far as I can recall, is evidence of AA batteries firing away, as they did around Baghdad 30 years ago when they were trying to fend off the US:

Is it all just guided missiles these days?

[broken one]

24 minutes ago, Werthead said:

It's way too easy to get carried away here with optimism.

Some say Putin's problem with Ukraine, the reason why he fights so hard to absorb it to the Ruski Mir is that Eastern Slavic, (partially) orthodox, cyrilic alphabet using people in the vicinity of Russia who prosper under liberal democracy would make example for Russian society and deadly danger for his cleptocratic regime. If this is true then Ukraine in UE is much more dangerous than Ukraine in NATO. 

[Fez]

8 minutes ago, Werthead said:

That's part of the deal, not all of it. Absolutely Ukraine will recognise Crimea, and I suspect will recognise Luhansk and Donetsk as well, but with a question mark over the borders (particularly the disposition of Mariupol).

Ukraine agreeing to giveaway any land that it held on Feb. 23 seems rather unlikely to me; barring a major Russian victory.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Ukraine agreeing to giveaway any land that it held on Feb. 23 seems rather unlikely to me; barring a major Russian victory.

I'm not sure I'd go that far, although Ukraine is going to be pretty averse to giving away any medium sized cities.  The water access issues in Crimea need to be resolved and that will probably require some territory changing hands.  If a few thousand Ukrainians have to flee their homes to stay out of Russia, then that is unfortunate, but not a dealbreaker. 

[Werthead]

There's been a big protest in Kherson Oblast's town Skadovsk, after the mayor was abducted. The Russians dispersed the crowd with tear gas, but then released the mayor anyway.