Ukraine 8

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

For sure. That's why I didn't bother linking anything [yet]-- very initial and confused. 

Could Putin be replacing Lukashenko… since he will not join the fight?

[Ormond]

56 minutes ago, Fez said:

Also worth pointing that Trump doesn't contradict the GOP base, he goes where they want. We see that with things like COVID vaccines. He got boo'd when he talked about them so he stopped talking about them. Previously, the base didn't care about Russia or Ukraine, so he could be pro-Putin either from blackmail, financial interests, or simply because he looks up to autocrats. But now the base is, with a few fringe exceptions, extremely pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia. If that attitude maintains, I think he'll follow it pretty readily.

And, personally, while pro-Ukraine sentiment may die down after a ceasefire, I can easily see anti-Russian sentiment staying in place. After all, a lot of Republican voters are old enough to remember the cold war and when being anti-Russian was simply the default way of life for them. This is like slipping on a comfortable old blanket.

Trump is already today trying to get his base to back him in his rage over YouTube pulling a video of an interview with him where he spouted his election fraud lies, and his similar rage over OAN being dropped by some cable TV companies, by comparing that to the censorship in Russia which prevents Russians from having access to the truth about the Ukraine war. This goes along with Trump's super-narcissism. He is perfectly fine with shifting positions on Putin in order to back his own personal goals, and will deny (to himself as well as others) that he's made any change at all. 

https://mashable.com/article/youtube-removes-trump-interview-nelk-boys-full-send-podcast

[JGP]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Could Putin be replacing Lukashenko… since he will not join the fight?

Your guess is as good as mine. False flag seems counter productive right now, but can't be ruled out, could be a coup... who knows at this point. Video starting to surface online now, no visuals on the explosions yet but they have sound. Crazy shit

[Werthead]

Some suggestion that it was a rocket launch aimed at Sarny in Ukraine, not far from the Belarusian border.

ETA: Reports of Sarny being hit by multiple missiles, pretty heavy bombing. Looks like they were aimed at a weapons depot there.

[JGP]

I tried to take a break. Reading wasn't working, drawing on my Cintiq wasn't working, got Elden Ring, big nope. I've had hits and misses in life and have always been [considered myself, more accurately] relatively strong, but covid, now this war... I have no idea how we're supposed to take care of our mental and emotional health when stuff like this is happening. 

How are you all keeping your chill, are you chill  

[Werthead]

It varies. Some days I feel anxious reading up on the news, some days I feel much more anxious by not doing so. I feel guilty at sitting in my comfortable home whilst people fight two thousand miles away. I have another issue in not having family to rely on for support. I've found it helpful to maybe keep an update window on the conflict whilst doing something else (watching TV, reading, playing a video game). It's a just a question of balance. Definitely knowing when to switch off and go to sleep is very hard.

Back on topic, this is a good article (the paywall is a bit iffy and sometimes vanishes) about a battle at the very end of the Russian advance.

This is the full article about the peace plan. Note that the points being discussed are those proposed by Russia.

[JGP]

Look at this shit:

 

[Fez]

17 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Look at this shit:

 

It is curious that this came out at the same time as the report of explosions in Belarus. I don't know if it actually means anything though. Pavel Latushka, this guy, is basically the leader of the opposition in exile in Poland. He's not a current government minister turning on Lukashenko on anything like that.

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Europe on the whole is rearming because they see that an isolationist like Trump leaving them high and dry is a real possibility.

[Kalbear]

3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I would question whether Russia could come back stronger with a better, more organised army. Much of the things I’ve been hearing suggest the problems are systemic, and the root is probably a centralised level of command, lack of communication and efficiency. Very much the sort of thing you’d expect in a top down dictatorship where reality is hidden from everyone. 
 

How would the next invasion be any better organised if the very system underpinning the current invasion isn’t changed?

For starters they'd not bother with the lightning attempt at Kyiv. They'd start with fires, lots of them, and they'd bombard the shit out of the country and hope to kill leaders. 

And while Russian troops and equipment isn't awesome, their artillery and ability to cause massive damage is still pretty impressive. Plus, ya know, it doesn't really have to be amazing quality of troops to bomb the shit out of people. 

They also may decide to use chemical weapons depending on the NATO and US leadership. Heck, they may use nuclear weapons. That all being said, none of that is really the point; the point is that Russia will still likely try to do it, even if it won't be assured of success, because they both really want to do it and really believe that it will be successful. 

2 hours ago, Gorn said:

To continue to be aggressive and invade other countries, they need... you know, weapons, preferably modern ones. Stuff they are losing in huge amounts every day this war drags on. Stuff like guided munitions that they cannot replenish without French electronics. Or even basic stuff like trucks, that Kamaz can no longer produce in quantity due to sanctions.

Sure, on paper they have a bunch of weapons and vehicles in reserves. But considering the condition of their active-duty equipment, I'm willing to bet their reserve tanks haven't been powered on since 1991, and that they are only good for recycling.

Also probably true! And those things can still do a ton of damage, and Russia is still going to want to use them. They'll also likely pivot to developing more things in-house and/or stealing stuff. Assuming that they're under sanctions, which I suspect they won't be for very long. 

I'm assuming the following:

- Russia will be spending a LOT on their military

- Russia will either be out of sanctions or work on circumventing them for the military (likely Chinese and Israeli sources, but possibly it won't matter)

- Russia will not be giving up and the invasion and failure will be seen as at best a minor setback combined with obvious problems with unpatriotic traitors who were undermining the effort

- Russia is done with the notion of trying to save civilians and will go for maximum terror

Again, the assumption that Russia is just going to stop because they didn't do so well implies a rational actor who wouldn't have done this war in the first place.

[Fez]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Back on topic, this is a good article (the paywall is a bit iffy and sometimes vanishes) about a battle at the very end of the Russian advance.

For those who can't get past it, this was a small town that dealt a massive rout to Russian forces. What's especially noteworthy is that this was likely Russia's attempt to bypass Mykolaiv and get troops in place to support an assault on Odessa. Since they failed, it makes any attack on Odesa even less likely to succeed.

[Corvinus85]

2 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

Look at this shit:

 

translation?

[Gorn]

45 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

Also probably true! And those things can still do a ton of damage, and Russia is still going to want to use them. They'll also likely pivot to developing more things in-house and/or stealing stuff. Assuming that they're under sanctions, which I suspect they won't be for very long. 

I'm assuming the following:

- Russia will be spending a LOT on their military

- Russia will either be out of sanctions or work on circumventing them for the military (likely Chinese and Israeli sources, but possibly it won't matter)

- Russia will not be giving up and the invasion and failure will be seen as at best a minor setback combined with obvious problems with unpatriotic traitors who were undermining the effort

- Russia is done with the notion of trying to save civilians and will go for maximum terror

Sure, crappy tanks can still do a lot of damage... if no-one is shooting back. When people do shoot back, they're just expensive coffins for their crews.

Regarding the assumptions:

- Russia already spends a lot on its military. Maybe they'll spend a larger percentage of GDP, but their GDP will also go down 

- You're assuming that Western intelligence sources won't know about the sanctiona circumvention or won't do anything about it. Considering how thoroughly Russia lost the intelligence war in the runup to the invasion, that's a major assumption

- Again, their wish to do so may not match their capabilities

[JGP]

6 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

translation?

it's subtitled

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, Kalibuster said:

Again, the assumption that Russia is just going to stop because they didn't do so well implies a rational actor who wouldn't have done this war in the first place.

I would assume that the talks are a farce and Russia has no interest in stopping right now, rather than it plans on trying to repeat the invasion at a later date.

[Makk]

Another block to long term peace that no one seems to be talking about is terrorism. Both the fact that they invaded along with the brutal and cowardly way of doing it, is going to make a lot of Ukranians hate Russia with a passion. There will be people who have lost their families, friends, homes, and lived through weeks of bombardment to their city. Meanwhile they are very close to the Russian border and can easily pass as a Russian. It is easy to see how there could be years and years of terror attacks against Russian civilians. I am not sure how Russia would respond if one of these occurs but I suspect it would be something like Israel and Palestine.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

41 minutes ago, Gorn said:

- Russia already spends a lot on its military. Maybe they'll spend a larger percentage of GDP, but their GDP will also go down 

Russia spends a lot of money on its military, but the books are also completely cooked. The breakdowns I've seen so far basically say you should assume that if the government appropriated the funds for 100 tanks, 50 would be built, possibly on the cheap compared to the estimated costs, the rest of the funds will be pocketed by corrupt businessmen and government officials and when production is done maybe they'll claim they built more than 100 tanks and military planners will just assume all those tanks are really available. Putin is aware of the corruption, but perhaps not its full extent.

Talk about a way to run your armed forces...

30 minutes ago, Padraig said:

I would assume that the talks are a farce and Russia has no interest in stopping right now, rather than it plans on trying to repeat the invasion at a later date.

What, you wouldn't trust an opposing party in peace negotiations while they're actively bombing your civilians, seemingly out of spite?  

[SpaceChampion]

 

[mcbigski]

I'm drinking Tito's milk and Kalhua.  What's that called these days?

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

Sorry to jump in without reading much but wanted to share this with someone. I work with a Russian lady, she is in tears daily as she has family in both Ukraine & Russia. Russia has sent her 25 year old SPECIAL NEEDS brother to war. She is heart broken. The house her family lives in is in her name. She is flying to NY to talk to a Russian lawyer to sign it over to her sister because if the Russian govt gets wind it is in an American citizens name they will seize it & put her family on the street. She can't go there because her son is part Ukrainian, has a Ukrainian last name & she said they would both be put in concentration camps upon arrival. It's heart breaking.