Ukraine 8

[Fez]

I'd like to see more confirmation, but it's started being reported (including by verified eastern European news media, who hopefully did due diligence) that Ukrainian forces have retaken Posad-Pokrovske. This is a town about halfway between Mykolaiv and Kherson and about 20KM away from the Kherson military airport. 

If true, not only would it suggest that Russian forces are seriously on the backfoot in the region (and therefore even less likely to try attacking Odesa), it also means that the airport is now in range of Ukrainian artillery.

ETA: There's video confirmation out there now.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

If true, not only would it suggest that Russian forces are seriously on the backfoot in the region (and therefore even less likely to try attacking Odesa), it also means that the airport is now in range of Ukrainian artillery.

There have been at least two big false alarms that an amphibious landing in Odessa was beginning/imminent.  Obviously that did not happen.  From what I've read Odessa is not good country for an amphibious attempt, and the Ukrainians have had plenty of time to prepare.  At this point, I wonder if Ukraine would somewhat welcome such an attempt, because throwing invaders back into the sea is a pretty powerful image. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

There have been at least two big false alarms that an amphibious landing in Odessa was beginning/imminent.  Obviously that did not happen.  From what I've read Odessa is not good country for an amphibious attempt, and the Ukrainians have had plenty of time to prepare.  At this point, I wonder if Ukraine would somewhat welcome such an attempt, because throwing invaders back into the sea is a pretty powerful image. 

I hope Odesa is left in peace.  But I do see your point.

 

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I hope Odesa is left in peace.  But I do see your point.

 

I mean, if Russia doesn't use their forces there, they'll be deployed elsewhere. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

I’m Orthodox Christian.  My Church was part of the Russian Church until the early 1970’s when the ROC (Russian Orthodox Church) granted Autocephaly to the OCA (Orthodox Church in America).  

Now that action was controversial and is not universally recognized in the Orthodox world.  I was given the impression that “Autocephaly” was simply independance from the mother church… the ROC.  It’s not.  It implies primacy of the Autocephalous church over Orthodox Christians within its region… the US.  Hence, there are very strong objections to the unilateral grant of autocephaly by the ROC to the OCA.

To make a long story short… I’m engaged is rather strenuous debates with my co-religionists many of whom are offering repeated apologia for the ROC and its embrace of the Russian dictator.  It’s sad and embarrassing.  We have both Ukrainian and Russian families at my local parish Church and the Ukrainians are understandably horrified and the Russians embarrassed.  

I’m really struggling with this one.

[broken one]

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I mean, if Russia doesn't use their forces there, they'll be deployed elsewhere. 

And if Ukrainians wont have to look after Odessa they will move part of their forces elsewhere. They absorb each other there without exchange of fire, fair enough I guess.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

8 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m Orthodox Christian.  My Church was part of the Russian Church until the early 1970’s when the ROC (Russian Orthodox Church) granted Autocephaly to the OCA (Orthodox Church in America).  

Now that action was controversial and is not universally recognized in the Orthodox world.  I was given the impression that “Autocephaly” was simply independance from the mother church… the ROC.  It’s not.  It implies primacy of the Autocephalous church over Orthodox Christians within its region… the US.  Hence, there are very strong objections to the unilateral grant of autocephaly by the ROC to the OCA.

To make a long story short… I’m engaged is rather strenuous debates with my co-religionists many of whom are offering repeated apologia for the ROC and its embrace of the Russian dictator.  It’s sad and embarrassing.  We have both Ukrainian and Russian families at my local parish Church and the Ukrainians are understandably horrified and the Russians embarrassed.  

I’m really struggling with this one.

Isn't Constantinople (Istanbul) the mothership for Orthodox churches?

[Fez]

7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

There have been at least two big false alarms that an amphibious landing in Odessa was beginning/imminent.  Obviously that did not happen.  From what I've read Odessa is not good country for an amphibious attempt, and the Ukrainians have had plenty of time to prepare.  At this point, I wonder if Ukraine would somewhat welcome such an attempt, because throwing invaders back into the sea is a pretty powerful image. 

Yeah, attacking Odesa at the present time would seem to be the very definition of foolhardy. Supposedly its just as fortified as Kyiv at this point, and there'd be the added challenge of trying to make an amphibious assault. Has there even been a successful fully contested amphibious landing since World War II? And the defender in this case seems to have far greater advantages than, say, the Nazis at Normandy did.

 

1 minute ago, broken one said:

And if Ukrainians wont have to look after Odessa they will move part of their forces elsewhere

Ukraine's forces in Odesa are probably there for the duration, no matter what. Since there isn't much of a Ukrainian fleet, it'd be too easy for Russia to get in position to attack at anytime if the city was left relatively undefended. And retaining Odesa is vital to Ukraine. 

[Corvinus85]

The kidnapped mayor of Melitopol had been rescued in a Ukrainian special operation. He was filmed talking on the phone with Zelenskyy afterwards. https://www.axios.com/melitopol-mayor-kidnap-free-10497e80-25ab-4573-bd20-6df40d3de1db.html

[Corvinus85]

3 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Isn't Constantinople (Istanbul) the mothership for Orthodox churches?

Well it was. But it's not the equivalent of the Papacy for the Roman Catholic Church. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Orthodox_Church

[broken one]

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

 

Ukraine's forces in Odesa are probably there for the duration, no matter what. Since there isn't much of a Ukrainian fleet, it'd be too easy for Russia to get in position to attack at anytime if the city was left relatively undefended. And retaining Odesa is vital to Ukraine. 

For the same reason I doubt Russians will move the forces elsewhere.

[Larry of the Lawn]

11 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

 

 

This is why I've said repeatedly Ukraine can't trust Russia at all and why the West would be fools to quickly lift sanctions. The Russian government is behaving like a pathological liar, and if you want to get in the business of trusting pathological liars, well frogs, scorpions, rivers and all that business. 

That could also hamper Ukrainian efforts to negotiate though- Ukraine is going to be negotiating with one hand tied if they can't offer the carrot of lifting sanctions.  

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

28 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Isn't Constantinople (Istanbul) the mothership for Orthodox churches?

Not exactly.  There is no Orthodox pontiff.  But Constantinople is seen as “first among equals”.  And “first in honor” with equal authority to other Patriarchs.  

[Werthead]

18 minutes ago, Larry of the Lake said:

That could also hamper Ukrainian efforts to negotiate though- Ukraine is going to be negotiating with one hand tied if they can't offer the carrot of lifting sanctions.  

I'm not seeing that Russia really wants the sanctions lifted. I don't think there's been much discussion of them.

Instead, Putin at least seems to really want Russia to be isolated and closed off, so he can take full control of the country (even more than he ever had before).

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Just now, Werthead said:

I'm not seeing that Russia really wants the sanctions lifted. I don't think there's been much discussion of them.

Instead, Putin at least seems to really want Russia to be isolated and closed off, so he can take full control of the country (even more than he ever had before).

The Russian dictator wants a “Kim style” State?  Who takes over when he dies?

[Fez]

6 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The Russian dictator wants a “Kim style” State?  Who takes over when he dies?

Some trusted aide who has the same vision of "Greater Russia" that he does, probably. He does have at least two daughters, but neither of them are apparently part of the government; so dynastic succession would seem unlikely.

[Darzin]

21 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The Russian dictator wants a “Kim style” State?  Who takes over when he dies?

For a model in post soviet states,  Uzbekistan, Kazkahstan and Turkmenistan have had non dynastic succession. In Turkemenistan the president's dentist took over and has now passed the presidency to his son. But I doubt such wacky stuff would happen in Russia. Uzbekistan had a new president was chosen after the death of the previous and in Kazakhstan Nazarbayev semi retired ala Den Xiaoping. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

42 minutes ago, Larry of the Lake said:

That could also hamper Ukrainian efforts to negotiate though- Ukraine is going to be negotiating with one hand tied if they can't offer the carrot of lifting sanctions.  

To take a different angle from what Wert said, what happens if we quickly roll back sanctions and then in two months they start launching cyber attacks? That seems much more likely than another immediate invasion. If the answer is put the sanctions back in place then they probably shouldn’t have been rolled back to begin with, especially if Putin doesn’t seem to mind them too much.

23 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Instead, Putin at least seems to really want Russia to be isolated and closed off, so he can take full control of the country (even more than he ever had before).

This does appear to be his primary focus at the moment. The way he lashed out at the oligarchs yesterday seemed deeply personal.

[Werthead]

Very direct and powerful. If it changes even one person's mind in Russia, maybe worthwhile.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

A fascinating “Frontline” about Putin’s rise to power.  I had no idea he was stationed in East Germany during the fall of the Berlin Wall:

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/putins-road-to-war/