Werthead Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 20 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Russia on the other hand can see that the gap between the NATO and Russia is not really closing anymore, because Russia has like 1/5th the population, 1/25th the economy and a much bigger corruption problem. The gap between China and Russia is also growing (China's GDP is now 8X that of Russia, and their GDP per capita is actually getting very close). Russia has long complained that the rules of the current world order are stacked against them, and they seek to dramatically upset that balance. Agreed. The problem is that you can't do that through conquest or corruption. The way the modern world works does not allow it, and a Russia-controlled Ukraine (or other states in Eastern Europe) would simply sink into corruption and get mired in misery, they would not expand Russia's economy by anything like they think it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Maybe we just need to make it easier for anarcho-gangster dictatorships to compete with the rest of the world, maybe we are just being a little unfair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Heartofice said: Maybe we just need to make it easier for anarcho-gangster dictatorships to compete with the rest of the world, maybe we are just being a little unfair. The Russian dictator did complain he was being “cancelled”. I’m sure fans of the losing one term former President who lives in Florida and loves the Russian dictator are sympathetic to that complaint… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 A report that many of the people attending Putin's rally were public sector workers told they "had" to attend. A few people interviewed said they thought many attending didn't really want to be there, although of course a lot did. Quote "I'll be here for a while and then I'll leave… I think most people here don't support the war. I don't," he said. Many people didn't want to be filmed or answer questions. Students told us they had been given the option of a day off from lectures if they attended "a concert". Some of the students we spoke to didn't even know that the event was dedicated, in part, to support the war in Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 Some news on the negotiations: Russia and Ukraine are "aligned" on Ukraine's neutrality and agreeing not to join NATO. They are also "halfway there" in agreeing on the issue of Ukraine's "demilitarisation" (which doesn't sound like total demilitarisation but putting a limit on Ukraine's army, and that may or may not be around where it is now anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, Werthead said: putting a limit on Ukraine's army, and that may or may not be around where it is now anyway Putting a limit Ukraine wasn't going to surpass anyway jives with the NATO guarantee as hollow concessions Putin can champion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Ukraine claims to have hit the Kherson airport yet again, this time destroying a Russian command center; possibly killing multiple generals. ETA: removed DMC's quoted text, not sure why that was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 The number of Russian generals being killed in this war is going to save Putin some time when it comes to the purges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, DMC said: Putting a limit Ukraine wasn't going to surpass anyway jives with the NATO guarantee as hollow concessions Putin can champion. It's an interesting one. I think there is speculation that Russia will probably escalate and cause major, increased death and destruction if the war carries on, because it has no real other route to victory. However, I suspect that Russia does not want to risk a conflict with NATO (it will risk it, up to a certain limit) - at this time - and it does not want to piss off China. They will probably be noting that although China was not full-throttled in its barely-existent criticism of the war in the Ji/Biden discussion, there were repeated comments by China to the order that they want to see the war end ASAP. Interestingly, the overload of sanctions may have made Russia more dependent on China then they were already, giving China greater influence over the outcome. I could do without the macho posturing of Western leaders lining up to call Putin names, no matter how deserved. Let's say the energy crisis continues for 2-5 years, any prospective peace between Ukraine and Russia holds, Russia doesn't do anything else (in that time period) and Western governments reluctantly agree they urgently need to reopen the gas supply to Russia. Hopefully that won't be necessary, but if it is, that's going to be a difficult hill to get over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Fez said: Ukraine claims to have hit the Kherson airport yet again, this time destroying a Russian command center; possibly killing multiple generals. If true that’s a big deal. The South is where the Russians have had the most success. A decapitation strike on the Russian command there could allow for a serious counter-offensive… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, mormont said: The number of Russian generals being killed in this war is going to save Putin some time when it comes to the purges. Any competent military structure would remove most of them from command. It's not just dumb big decisions (which have maybe been forced by Putin), it's dumb little ones. This would at minimum be the third successful strike on the airport, it might be even higher than that. Clearly, it's not a secure location (especially after yesterday, where it's now straight-up within range of Ukrainian artillery), so why the hell would you set your command structure there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Today's cover of German magazine "Der Spiegel" looks like the cover of a damn action movie: https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/2a7d8570-cd83-4933-80ed-1d5be52d1275_w996_r1.778_fpx48_fpy28.jpg Makes me wonder whether "Servant of the People" gets a new season after Zelenskyy is out of office, now as a gripping war dramedy. Pretty sure an Ukrainian farmer who keeps bringing new tanks would be a running gag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: If true that’s a big deal. The South is where the Russians have had the most success. A decapitation strike on the Russian command there could allow for a serious counter-offensive… Nah. The good news is that Russian leadership has sucked. The bad news is that removing them isn't too horrible and may be addition by subtraction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Kalibuster said: Nah. The good news is that Russian leadership has sucked. The bad news is that removing them isn't too horrible and may be addition by subtraction I have actually wondered about that. Zukhov rose to his Marshalship through attrition, didn’t he? Would Putin allow a real hero to emerge in his Kelptocracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: I have actually wondered about that Zukhov rose to his Marshalship through attrition, didn’t he? Would Putin allow a real hero to emerge in his Kelptocracy? Never. If any Russian commanders emerge from this as "heroes" within the Russian army, they'll be purged within a year or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: I have actually wondered about that. Zukhov rose to his Marshalship through attrition, didn’t he? Would Putin allow a real hero to emerge in his Kelptocracy? Sort of, but Zhukov was also genuinely very good, somewhat apolitical and made his reputation in the Russian Far East, a long way from Moscow. He was only brought in when the USSR was on its knees during WWII, became an incomparable hero during the war, and afterwards was sidelined (one of the oddities in The Death of Stalin is that Zhukov wasn't anywhere near as important by 1952 as they tried to make out). The status of the army in Russia is surprisingly low, so I think they'll be reluctant to let any generals emerge with popularity on their side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kalibuster said: The other thing that is baffling to me is that the Russian command seems completely flatted by an enemy that shoots back… it’s still early… but it feels like the failure of the commando raids in the early days are where this fell apart for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 Hmm. I think it's clear more is being discussed than that - Zelensky has already publicly relented on NATO membership - - but maybe the Russian position is more optimistic for internal consumption, and maybe consumption by Putin? If demilitarisation is simply staying within current guidelines, then that could be another area where they can agree but the Ukrainians can also kind of say they've not agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 FT had an interactive that had some maps and explanation of the war, which was mostly stuff I had already heard. One exception was that they said that one of the big reasons why the advance in the south went better than other areas was because Russia was able to capture several key bridges. I assume they are referring to the Antonovskiy Bridge and the one in Nova Kakhovka. I know this is a long time ago, but do we know why those bridges weren't destroyed? I don't know much about the one in Nova Kakhovka, but the Antonovskiy Bridge was captured by Russians on 2/24, then recaptured by Ukraine on 2/25, and then taken once again by Russia that evening. Surely Ukraine had the time/ability to destroy it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.