Ukraine 9: Where does it go from here

[SeanF]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

Fair enough I guess.  Still, Putin is well aware using NBC weapons to decimate a city the size of Mariupol is one of those red lines, or at least will obviously drastically change the conflict and NATO's approach therein.

All we need to do is to adopt Trump's brilliant idea of disguising NATO planes as Chinese ones and use them to attack Russian forces.

[3CityApache]

8 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

Kinda? But again, that requires coordination with the upflow system. You can't just stop a pipeline from flowing by putting a crimp in the middle of the pipe - at least not without blowing the pipe up. 

Naah, technically it's fully doable, there's been precedents of Belarus or Ukraine shutting off gas flow in the past, Poland could also easily do it, or Germany on Nord Stream. Problem is, half of Europe is still dependant on Russian gas and simply can not afford it. So it's not an option now, but not due to technicalities, but simply because nobody would be willing to do it.

[broken one]

3 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

e nobody would be willing to do it.

if 400k people just vaporized in atomic explosion... who knows.

[3CityApache]

3 minutes ago, broken one said:

if 400k people just vaporized in atomic explosion... who knows.

Yes, well, that would certainly change the equation, I would say to the point shutting off gas export would be pretty irrelevant, as other means would have to be in use.

[broken one]

I do not believe Putin will use nukes or chemical weapons. The ultimatum was rejected. Russians do not honor agreements and would kill those who surrender anyway.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Meanwhile in under reported news.

Kyiv Independent claims Russia is forcing conscripts from the Donbas to fight at the frontline. Well, not entirely forcing, they are given a choice. Fight or gettting shot. Given the source, probably taken with a grain of salt, but it wouldn't really surprise me if true.

[Luzifer's right hand]

In very pro sanctions but a lot of people forget that while the economy of Russia might seem small it exports a lot of stuff out civilization actually needs to run properly. 

Fertilizer production in Europe is already suffering because of high natural gas prices and it looks like Russia will stop exporting fertilizers.

This will hit countries like Brazil very hard. That Brazil and similar places exports a lot of food as animal feed will just increases that problem. The poor will starve in those places before they stop selling us stuff to run our animal factories with.

We should not judge those countries too harshly when they refuse to properly sanction Russia.

[broken one]

7 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Meanwhile in under reported news.

Kyiv Independent claims Russia is forcing conscripts from the Donbas to fight at the frontline. Well, not entirely forcing, they are given a choice. Fight or gettting shot. Given the source, probably taken with a grain of salt, but it wouldn't really surprise me if true.

I've read they are completely unprepared, sent to recon/fight and get massacred.  BTW Russians prepare to draft 17-18 yo guys who belong to so called Junarmia, a "patriotic movement" for children and teenagers. Reminds me of certain thing from WW2 and looks like desperation.

[mormont]

I've seen reports of forced 'evacuations' of Ukrainians to Russia, with rumours that they're being resettled far away from the border - even that they've been forced to sign papers saying they'll stay there and work for free for 2-3 years. Not verified as yet, but if true that's some truly repellent stuff. 

[Which Tyler]

Ethnic Cleansing - another war crime to add to the list (if verified)

[broken one]

2 minutes ago, mormont said:

I've seen reports of forced 'evacuations' of Ukrainians to Russia, with rumours that they're being resettled far away from the border - even that they've been forced to sign papers saying they'll stay there and work for free for 2-3 years. Not verified as yet, but if true that's some truly repellent stuff. 

Yeah, ancient Assyria crossed my mind but why to look so far in history. In fact this is 100% Stalin style deportation.

[Gorn]

6 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

And that's my point! The rules about lines and what things mean are emphatically not the same. And assuming things won't be crossed because they weren't during the cold war is an obvious fallacy.

 

The only correct response to an open threat of using WMDs is to behave like they don't exist and to instantly reject any ultimatums. If NATO (or Ukraine) visibly flinches at their mention, it will make it far more likely that they are used, and nuclear threats will become a norm in diplomacy.

Various Politburos in the USSR knew this, which is why they didn't do it. Nuclear threats make Russia's negotiating position weaker, not stronger.

[Werthead]

China has finally confirmed that it will not be sending weapons or ammunition to Russia.

The Chinese Ambassador to the US seemed to be speaking through gritted teeth by saying that China would not send arms, but also criticised the US for its unsubtle and public diplomacy, rather than pursuing lower-key talks.

9 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

And, again - let's assume that the US can do all of those things magically and turn off all of that and hold Russia ransom so that only we can turn them back on. This is absolutely not a capability that US cyberwarfare possesses, but let's go with that. Why do you think Putin will stop fighting in Ukraine? What, specifically, about all of the above is going to make him stop? He doesn't fear revolution. He doesn't fear other major leadership deposing him. He doesn't fear his own military. Why would the above make him stop?

I think this is fundamentally incorrect: Putin does fear a revolution, or at least he does fear being toppled or assassinated. When Gaddafi was killed in 2011, he apparently ran the news tape back repeatedly for several hours. He's replaced almost his entire Kremlin staff from scratch in the last couple of years, people can't come within more than a few feet of him without having a COVID and security test first and he has a personal food taster (given slow-acting poisons, I'm still not sure why that's even useful, unless he has the meal several hours after it's tasted).

I think he feels he's arranged things to make a revolution or an assassination attempt unlikely, but I think he also knows that during unpredictable events, that threat can rise again.

He was very clearly taken aback by the revolution in Ukraine in 2013-14 and the near-revolutions in Belarus in 2020 and Kazakhstan in January this year, so he knows that things can go from zero to disaster very quickly.

[SeanF]

45 minutes ago, mormont said:

I've seen reports of forced 'evacuations' of Ukrainians to Russia, with rumours that they're being resettled far away from the border - even that they've been forced to sign papers saying they'll stay there and work for free for 2-3 years. Not verified as yet, but if true that's some truly repellent stuff. 

Very much part of his predecessors' modus operandi.

[Gorn]

An entire Russian paratrooper regiment, 331st Guards Airborne regiment, was reported destroyed southwest of Kyiv. They were encircled for awhile, not sure if they were the same unit that made the failed attack on the Vasylkiv airfield at the beginning of the war.

Their official strength was 2000 men and 200 vehicles. Ukrainians report deaths of CO and XO (CO was confirmed by Russians) and all personnel down to a couple of captured wounded. They were one of Russia's most elite units that participated in both Chechen wars, invasion of Georgia and the Donbas war.

They also took part in the Ilovaisk massacre of retreating Ukrainian soldiers in 2014 (they had an previous agreement to allow them to retreat in peace), so this could be called karma. The same commanding officer that was confirmed killed, Sergei Sukharev, commanded them in 2014 as well.

[Gorn]

Also, if someone is wandering about the poor communication of Russian forces and their apparent inability to call in airstrikes, the reason is because the general in charge of the equipment modernization, Khalil Arslanov, stole around 1/3 of the intended budget (which was incredibly small to begin with). Old news, but demonstrates what is wrong with Russia's army: https://warsawinstitute.org/deputy-chief-russias-general-staff-arrested-fsb-hits-military/

[Winterfell is Burning]

Russia killed a 96 year old Holocaust survivor in Kharkiv

Nothing says de-nazification like finishing the job Hitler started.

[Kalbear]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

 

I think this is fundamentally incorrect: Putin does fear a revolution, or at least he does fear being toppled or assassinated. When Gaddafi was killed in 2011, he apparently ran the news tape back repeatedly for several hours. He's replaced almost his entire Kremlin staff from scratch in the last couple of years, people can't come within more than a few feet of him without having a COVID and security test first and he has a personal food taster (given slow-acting poisons, I'm still not sure why that's even useful, unless he has the meal several hours after it's tasted).

I think he feels he's arranged things to make a revolution or an assassination attempt unlikely, but I think he also knows that during unpredictable events, that threat can rise again.

He was very clearly taken aback by the revolution in Ukraine in 2013-14 and the near-revolutions in Belarus in 2020 and Kazakhstan in January this year, so he knows that things can go from zero to disaster very quickly.

I think putin fears being assassinated, but he does not fear a popular revolution. Revolutions are not ever done by people in his eyes - they're instigated by outside forces. So he would potentially fear western forces fueling separatist or opposition movements in Russia (if any existed) but he doesn't fear the people just getting fed up.

My point more is that he doesn't fear the unrest caused by food shortages or not being able to get Ikea. Or the populace losing a bunch of their money or jobs. Those are not threats that will dissuade him from Ukrainian invasion. In that way he does not fear a revolt caused by the sorts of things cyberwarfare can inflict.

And if he did fear them, his reaction is not going to be to stop and pull back. Ukraine shows this. He considers Ukraine joining the EU or being westernized to be an existential threat to himself and Russia. His response is to escalate and attack. It is not to back down.

Which leads me back to my prior thesis - that putin will either get what he wants or he will be physically stopped from it. There are no other options. 

[Werthead]

Interesting thoughts on the problems in Ukraine's own war effort, and how Russian officers confiscating individual smartphones means we are not seeing comparable records of Ukrainian losses as we are Russian. Some debate about Ukrainian losses, some agreeing they may be comparable to Russia's, but some pointing out that attrition favours the defender, so Russian losses being 3-5 times greater is not implausible.

Russia thanking Israel and Turkey for mediation efforts, intriguingly. Some suggestion that the negotiating team wants Ukraine to amend its stance in accordance with changes on the ground, which they are not doing at present.

Quote

Which leads me back to my prior thesis - that putin will either get what he wants or he will be physically stopped from it. There are no other options. 

This, I fear, is the case. But it does reintroduce the question of what Putin wants, is it what he says he wants (neutral Ukraine, no NATO, recognised statelets) or is it more (the whole country), but he'll fall back on what he says if the real objective is not tenable? To some degree, that's what happened in Georgia.

[Martell Spy]

The Russians were hunting us down: the war on journalism in Mariupol
A reporter describes life under siege in the Ukrainian city and why it was so important to break the silence

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/21/the-russians-were-hunting-us-down-the-war-on-journalism-in-mariupol

Quote

 

The Russians were hunting us down. They had a list of names, including ours, and they were closing in.

On 9 March, twin airstrikes shredded the plastic taped over our van’s windows. I saw the fireball just a heartbeat before pain pierced my inner ear, my skin, my face.

We watched smoke rise from a maternity hospital. When we arrived, emergency workers were still pulling bloodied pregnant women from the ruins.

“This will change the course of the war,” he said. He took us to a power source and an internet connection.

We had recorded so many dead people and dead children, an endless line. I did not understand why he thought still more deaths could change anything.

I was wrong. In the dark, we sent the images by lining up three mobile phones with the video file split into three parts to speed the process up. It took hours, well beyond curfew. The shelling continued, but the officers assigned to escort us through the city waited patiently.

Then our link to the world outside Mariupol was again severed.