Ukraine 9: Where does it go from here

[JoannaL]

18 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

I'm sure that's part of it too - but I also think that the welcoming of Ukrainian refugees with open arms isn't happening in Poland if they look like Afghanis. I think the demands of the US to give Ukraine more weapons and more support don't happen if it's Yemeni. 

Yes, I have read this argument in the last weeks a lot, preferable in US and UK newspapers - so countries which dont accept any refugees in large numbers anyway.

It makes me angry. We did take in 1 million syrian refugees. But on behalf of our eastern neighbours, Poland and Hungary and Romania and all the others, which are doing such a great job, and which should not be called racists for all their efforts here a defense:

there are at least three - non racists- reasons why there is a difference between this refugee crisis and the last:

1.) neighbouring country: this is also in the Geneva convention, refugees come from neigbouring countries , its more diffcult to explain when they crossed several borders. In this case I would say the EU is the neigbouring country, and they are doing great.

2.) the refugees are women and children and the old , not young men  (like in the last refugee crisis) young men are the most problematic group, also in criminal statistics (totally regardless form which country they are from)

3.) the Ukranian refugees don't want to stay, they just seek temporal shelter and protection, they do not plan (though it may happen) to stay in the new countries permanently

You can like these reasons  or not - and you may prefer that more could be done also for other refugees.

but these reasons are not racist.

 

 

 

 

[HoodedCrow]

I had a boyfriend who went to Eastern Germany before the wall fell. Some things stick in my brain like the idea that they helped an East German on a train who was terrified that he had too many bananas( over the quota). My teenaged boyfriend was almost arrested for wearing a camera by a plain clothed policeman( probably wanted the camera). He was told off for speaking German( how was that possible?) And finally the cop backed off when his mother turned up and explained that they were tourists. They used to put bribery items in parcels, clearly marked, so that the rest of the parcel would get through to relatives. They were quite surprised to see Russian troops in places like restaurants. Meanwhile there were minimal food options.

Their cousins had to do a whole cloak and dagger escapade, in order to meet them. One young cousin did say” so we’ll be ready if NATO invades.” His father said” nonsense” and then explained that the indoctrination wasn’t for himself, or even for his son, but for his grandchildren. He also said that he would like to be able to go to Paris, not even to go, but to be able to. Well, folks, the wall fell. But Putin is running off KGB training and Peter the great stories and is a wannabe Napoleon. He is also cruel and vicious, but then I guess there is Ivan the Terrible. He would rather have a colorless, drab, fearful, brutish, society, fortunate only for the super wealthy and knock out any opposition by blackmailing, shooting or poisoning them. Putin is not a friendly guy. IMHO.

By the way, does anyone not raised on Russian propaganda think that NATO was going to invade? 

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Larry of the Lake said:

all the people who have expressed concern and horror for what's happening in Ukraine will be similarly caring and concerned about similar atrocities when they happen elsewhere.  

The US -- and a lot of Europe too -- had an unabashed sense of overt threat by the people to whom they attributed the 9/11 attacks, which were expected to be -- or least aspire to be -- only the first upon Europe and the USA.  This 9/11 attitude out of the federal government was thoroughly accepted by even the 'left' and Dems in the USA.  Again, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.  Thus Russia got regarded and even treated more friendly after 9/11  -- also the International Space Station.

All this began even earlier with the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1991, followed by the Bosnian-Serbian-Croatian War which was widely viewed -- if regarded at all -- by the majority of people in the US -- as a war between Christians and Muslims -- and we are on the Christian side, I guess? they would think. In January, 1996, Russia sent troops to Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, via Tuzla. The move w motivated, in part, by the desire to improve relations with the United States. So, as per usual, sides and alliances and support are entwined in conflicting and contradictory ways, just as much as how it was with the outbreak of WWI.

Not then and not now would I even think I really understood any of it.  But I had step relatives who went there as part of the National Guard deployment to provide various forms of humanitarian aid and assistance for rebuilding the devastation -- and they kept talking Christian and Muslim -- and they knew nothing at all, not even after they got home again.  But they sure resented the hell out of being taken there, after the Dayton Accords.  They'd be under the hot sun all day, building a school -- and not allowed to have a cold beer after work, because 'no alcohol allowed' was in effect in their assigned area.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

31 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

oh, and btw, the right-wing nutjobs are delighted by the fact that many Uktrainian transgender people are denied any border crossing when their sex and gender do not match, and people born male are then asked to join the military.

Ah these same people would always cry on society hates males whenever someone tries to empower cis women in being able to do things outside of house care and/or child rearing.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

It looks like the Ukrainians have retaken Irpin to the NW of Kyiv, which is good news.

How good exactly and could they hold it?

[Werthead]

Just now, Varysblackfyre321 said:

How good exactly and could they hold it?

It pushes Russian forces further away from Kyiv. The Irpin route is also one of most direct ways out of Kyiv to the west of the country, which makes both getting new supplies in and more people out more straightforward.

A fresh problem has emerged: Ukraine is expending munitions at a startling rate and there are now concerns that the countries can supply it can keep up with demand. They weren't expecting Ukraine to still be in a war-fighting mode a month into the invasion, they'd expected them to have switched to more of an insurgency model.

[Werthead]

Apparently the governor of Russia's central bank has tried to resign over the invasion of Ukraine, presumably because the invasion makes her job almost untenable, but Putin encouraged her to remain in post.

[Ran]

1 minute ago, Werthead said:

Apparently the governor of Russia's central bank has tried to resign over the invasion of Ukraine, presumably because the invasion makes her job almost untenable, but Putin encouraged her to remain in post.

I recall a photo from that meeting Putin had at that long, long table, and folks were noting her expression looking very dour indeed.

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Apparently the governor of Russia's central bank has tried to resign over the invasion of Ukraine, presumably because the invasion makes her job almost untenable, but Putin encouraged her to remain in post.

If true, this seems incredibly stupid on her part. Her resigning signals would signal the special force expedition hasn’t been going splendidly.

Why would Putin allow that? 

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, Kalibuster said:

I'll put it more bluntly - the western countries would never sanction Russia like they have if Russia invaded Kazakhstan. They would not send billions of dollars in military aid to Kazakhstan. And it would get almost no news either.

This is more complicated than you suggest.  Your essential point is correct about racism but are Europeans wrong to be more concerned about Russia invading a country on its borders than a country on a different continent?  Both are obviously equally immoral but i'm not going to deride people for being worried that they could be next.

And I think context is important.  Why would Russia invade Kazadhstan?  Right now it wouldn't because Kazakhstan is well within its sphere of influence.  But Russia could probably come up with a much more plausible reason for invading another autocratic country, which regularly abuses human rights, while the attack on Ukraine is clearly an attack against a reasonably democratic (but not perfect) country, which was trying to move out of its orbit.

If Kazakhstan had been making major inroads with the West over the last 20 years, in other words, if it was much more like Ukraine, then it would get a lot more attention.  Same amount of attention as Ukraine?  No.  But the amount does change.  Context does matter.

Trying to reduce everything to a binary choice is typical of a message board but its not reflective of the real world.

[a free shadow]

On 3/22/2022 at 9:02 PM, Kalibuster said:

They're much smaller countries, were actually part of the ussr directly, and have much less ties to the rest of Europe historically and linguistically.

Hopefully this at least does not imply that they are much more tied to Russia, historically and linguistically? No languages in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are even remotely related to the Russian language. One of my favorite facts about the Baltics is that when after the repeated rebellions the Russians made writing and reading in Lithuanian (and Polish) lettering a crime, for the next 40 years, the only thing it achieved was a wide contraband network of Lithuanian books and a higher literacy among people, because of the underground schools where each person learned Lithuanian in proper lettering as if in Farenheit 451.

[Kalbear]

Just now, Padraig said:

This is more complicated than you suggest.  Your essential point is correct about racism but are Europeans wrong to be more concerned about Russia invading a country on its borders than a country on a different continent?  Both are obviously equally immoral but i'm not going to deride people for being worried that they could be next.

And I think context is important.  Why would Russia invade Kazadhstan?  Right now it wouldn't because Kazakhstan is well within its sphere of influence.  But Russia could probably come up with a much more plausible reason for invading another autocratic country, which regularly abuses human rights, while the attack on Ukraine is clearly an attack against a reasonably democratic (but not perfect) country, which was trying to move out of its orbit.

If Kazakhstan had been making major inroads with the West over the last 20 years, in other words, if it was much more like Ukraine, then it would get a lot more attention.  Same amount of attention as Ukraine?  No.  But the amount does change.  Context does matter.

Trying to reduce everything to a binary choice is typical of a message board but its not reflective of the real world.

I think that a good example of this is Georgia, where almost all the things were true that you say above and the West didn't do shit. Do you think that because Georgia is southwest of Russia instead of south that the western countries were right to basically ignore the atrocities? Was it okay that Russia wasn't sanctioned for obliterating Grozny?

I also think that it really doesn't matter if the country is democratic or west-leaning, or at least it shouldn't matter when it comes to stopping wars of aggression. The best example of this I can think of is what Iraq did with Kuwait. It ain't like Kuwait is democratic. But they did have oil, and that was pretty important. Hopefully Kazakhstan has some natural deposits that the west gives a shit about. 

 

[Kalbear]

Just now, a free shadow said:

Hopefully this at least does not imply that they are much more tied to Russia, historically and linguistically?

Nope! Wasn't intending to imply that at all. Only that it's a lot easier for the west to accept, say, Polish requirements of sovereignity given how many Poles live throughout the rest of the West, how familiar people are with Polish names and whatnot, etc. 

I'm mostly saying that the Western countries will likely look at these things as potential reasons why they shouldn't defend Vilnius. 

Just now, a free shadow said:

No languages in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are even remotely related to the Russian language. One of my favorite facts about the Baltics is that when after the repeated rebellions the Russians made writing and reading in Lithuanian (and Polish) lettering a crime, for the next 40 years, the only thing it achieved was a wide contraband network of Lithuanian books and a higher literacy among people, because of the underground schools where each person learned Lithuanian in proper lettering as if in Farenheit 451.

That's pretty cool, and I didn't know that. Thanks!

[DMC]

Surprised this thread has yet to adopt a "Where in the World is Sergei Shoigu?" watch..

 

[Maithanet]

21 minutes ago, Werthead said:

It pushes Russian forces further away from Kyiv. The Irpin route is also one of most direct ways out of Kyiv to the west of the country, which makes both getting new supplies in and more people out more straightforward.

A fresh problem has emerged: Ukraine is expending munitions at a startling rate and there are now concerns that the countries can supply it can keep up with demand. They weren't expecting Ukraine to still be in a war-fighting mode a month into the invasion, they'd expected them to have switched to more of an insurgency model.

Over the past week or so Ukraine has claimed several successes in recapturing towns and crossroads in the area NW of Kyiv.  At least some of those claims have been confirmed by other intelligence sources.  The supply situation for Russian troops in that area looks to be getting worse and worse.  I saw an estimate that there were approximately 9,000 Russian troops operating in the area of Irpin/Bucha/Hostomel.  While a full encirclement and destruction of that army is unlikely, cutting off their supplies will result in either the army pulling back or being destroyed.  If they do pull back, that would mean that most of Kyiv is out of artillery range, which is a huge win.  And if even a fraction of that army were to surrender, that would be a big PR win for Ukraine and a strong negotiating chip as well. 

[Werthead]

Oddly upbeat assessment from Newsweek. They content that although Russia is conducting brutal war crimes in some areas, they are still holding back on a large part of their full potential (backed up by US studies that Russia probably has more than 50% and maybe closer to 70% of their missile stock for the invasion available) and could be doing much more against Kyiv, Kharkiv and other areas close to the border.

They suggest the Putin has limited goal in mind for the operation - probably the Crimea-Dontesk corridor, maybe Odesa as well - and once he is satisfied he has achieved his primary objectives, he will call a ceasefire and then negotiate properly, with the fait accompli of the corridor in place and no reason to give it up.

Not entirely sure I agree with that assessment, but it's not impossible.

[Gorn]

3 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

I think that a good example of this is Georgia, where almost all the things were true that you say above and the West didn't do shit. Do you think that because Georgia is southwest of Russia instead of south that the western countries were right to basically ignore the atrocities? Was it okay that Russia wasn't sanctioned for obliterating Grozny?

I also think that it really doesn't matter if the country is democratic or west-leaning, or at least it shouldn't matter when it comes to stopping wars of aggression. The best example of this I can think of is what Iraq did with Kuwait. It ain't like Kuwait is democratic. But they did have oil, and that was pretty important. Hopefully Kazakhstan has some natural deposits that the west gives a shit about. 

If you wanted to use Georgia as an example of western racism, it's not a good one - Georgians are white. If you use skin tone and eye color as the measure of "whiteness", they're more white than Greeks or Portuguese.

[Red Tiger]

12 minutes ago, DMC said:

Surprised this thread has yet to adopt a "Where in the World is Sergei Shoigu?" watch..

 

In our defense, Sergei's becoming more irrelevant by the minute.

[Kalbear]

13 minutes ago, Gorn said:

If you wanted to use Georgia as an example of western racism, it's not a good one - Georgians are white. If you use skin tone and eye color as the measure of "whiteness", they're more white than Greeks or Portuguese.

That's probably fair! More are muslim than, say, Ukraine, but otherwise it's a fair point. A better comparison is likely Chechnya. 

[RhaenysBee]

1 hour ago, Kalibuster said:

I'm sure that's part of it too - but I also think that the welcoming of Ukrainian refugees with open arms isn't happening in Poland if they look like Afghanis. I think the demands of the US to give Ukraine more weapons and more support don't happen if it's Yemeni. 

Course not, we are all tribal.

but I think it’s very important to make the distinction that in both cases Poland and the US have vastly different situations, roles, relationships with the countries mentioned. The US is a global power, and basically the leader of the western civilization, and have no shared history with Ukraine itself. they have interest in it, for the basic reason that it’s west of Russia, and they have a lot of shared history with Russia. They aren’t standing up for a random state they have nothing to do with, because there are plenty of those on the map in need, they are standing up against their nemesis. If someone else attacked Ukraine or Russia attacked someone to their east, I don’t think the US would care all that much. 

Poland isn’t a world player, they are a friendly next door neighbor. When one of their friends and next door neighbors is being hurt, they will leap to their aid. We all do. Because we are the same tribe. Because this could be happening to us. It has happened to us. And I have no doubt that we would be at the border and at train stations even if Ukraine was attacked by Romania. Of course the fact that it was attacked by Russia enhances the Soviet era ptsd in all of us so we care even more. It’s personal in a very different way than it is for the US.