Why did Melisandre believe that Stannis is the reborn Azor Ahai?

[Alexis-something-Rose]

7 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Pretty much my thoughts but I'm curious to know what exactly she saw.  If the flames truly do not lie then they could not have shown Stan leading the fight against the long night with lightbringer because we know he is not AA reborn. Maybe they showed someone doing this & another vision of Stannis or something that led her to him, making her interpret this as Stan being the one. I agree Stannis was her means to get to Jon. 

I actually wonder if Melisandre saw Dragonstone or if she straight up went to Dragonstone because it is a place of salt and smoke. Dragonstone plays a central role for her and she has associated it directly to the vision she's had of Stannis. Both times when she's trying to sell Stannis as Azor Ahai, she brings up Dragonstone to push her narrative. Plus Dragonstone has all those stone dragons and unlike Dany, Mel doesn't have dragon eggs, so she is talking about waking literal stone dragons, which seem to tie directly to the Slayer of Lies triad from the HotU. I wouldn't be surprised if Melisandre's vision of Stannis is actually similar to the one Dany had in ACoK.

About Thoros, we get two visions from him. The first one is absolutely accurate.

The outlaws hooted, none so loud as Thoros. "Just so. Yet I am not the false priest you knew. The Lord of Light has woken in my heart. Many powers long asleep are waking, and there are forces moving in the land. I have seen them in my flames." (Arya VI, ASoS 34)

And there's this one;

The red priest squatted down beside her. "My lady," he said, "the Lord granted me view of Riverrun. An island in a sea of fire, it seemed. The flames were leaping lions with long crimson claws. And how they roared! A sea of Lannisters, my Lady. Riverrun will soon come under attack." (Arya VIII, ASoS 43)

I think this is a pretty flawless read of the situation. The small difference is that Riverrun did not come under attack but was besieged instead which is still an indirect attack on the castle. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

15 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I actually wonder if Melisandre saw Dragonstone or if she straight up went to Dragonstone because it is a place of salt and smoke. Dragonstone plays a central role for her and she has associated it directly to the vision she's had of Stannis. Both times when she's trying to sell Stannis as Azor Ahai, she brings up Dragonstone to push her narrative. Plus Dragonstone has all those stone dragons and unlike Dany, Mel doesn't have dragon eggs, so she is talking about waking literal stone dragons, which seem to tie directly to the Slayer of Lies triad from the HotU. I wouldn't be surprised if Melisandre's vision of Stannis is actually similar to the one Dany had in ACoK.

About Thoros, we get two visions from him. The first one is absolutely accurate.

The outlaws hooted, none so loud as Thoros. "Just so. Yet I am not the false priest you knew. The Lord of Light has woken in my heart. Many powers long asleep are waking, and there are forces moving in the land. I have seen them in my flames." (Arya VI, ASoS 34)

And there's this one;

The red priest squatted down beside her. "My lady," he said, "the Lord granted me view of Riverrun. An island in a sea of fire, it seemed. The flames were leaping lions with long crimson claws. And how they roared! A sea of Lannisters, my Lady. Riverrun will soon come under attack." (Arya VIII, ASoS 43)

I think this is a pretty flawless read of the situation. The small difference is that Riverrun did not come under attack but was besieged instead which is still an indirect attack on the castle. 

Ahh  ty! I totally forgot that! Yeah, it seems he is pretty accurate. 

Mel has had a rough time of interpreting her visions so it's really anyone's guess what led her to dragon stone but I kind of like the idea of her going there because it is a place of smoke & salt. 

[Seams]

On 3/19/2022 at 2:05 PM, Hugorfonics said:

what's so clear to me, there's multiple azor ahais, multiple heroes who will collectively save the world from armageddon

Yes. 

I also agree with the possibility that Melisandre is mistaken in her identification of Stannis as Azor Ahai but that this mistake was necessary to put her in the company of a more likely Azor Ahai: most people think of Jon Snow but I think we have to examine Ser Davos Seaworth.

Perhaps even more telling would be an examination of the possibility that Melisandre is the personification of the sword Lightbringer. 

Like Ser Duncan the Tall, Davos was originally born in Flea Bottom and seemed to have very humble beginnings. I believe that Dunk is a Blackfyre prince and that Bloodraven is using him and Egg together to heal and unite broken things that must be put right for Westeros to thrive (or for Bloodraven to win the massive game of Cyvasse he has been manipulating for years). Is it possible that Davos, like Dunk, has a secret bloodline that gives him a special destiny or unique set of powers? Is smuggling a magical power? (My answer: Yes. Anything that gives a character the power to cross boundaries is a special magic in ASOIAF.) 

Davos was reborn in salt and smoke when he drowned but was washed up on the spears of the merling king. 

Davos is able to smuggle Melisandre into Storm's End, in spite of the magic in the walls that ordinarily prevents infiltration. Is this the first attempt to "forge" Lightbringer, plunging the "weapon" into the water? (Of course, Renly and Cressen are already dead at this point and four sons of Davos will soon die at the Blackwater, so I might be too literal in my attempts to count three deaths in the "forging" of Lightbringer.) 

As a result of the smuggling mission, the Storm's End castellan, Ser Cortnay Penrose, is killed by Melisandre's shadow weapon. This allows Stannis to take possession of the castle and of his nephew, Edric Storm (son of King Robert). 

We don't know much about House Penrose except that the sister of King Baelor, Elaena Targaryen, married a Penrose and Aelinor Penrose was the queen of Aerys I Targaryen. So a strong Targaryen (royal) link, now bonded with Edric. The Penrose sigil is two quills - presumably quill pens - and their house words are "set down our deeds," which seems significant because of the sword / words symbolism in the books. Other descendants of Eleana have the surname Waters and Longwaters, perhaps strengthening the notion that the infiltration of Storm's End and the death of Ser Cortnay represent the first attempt to forge Lightbringer. 

I suspect that GRRM is showing us in Davos a different type of forging and a different approach to Lightbringer, however, and I think it goes back to that idea of sword / words. Davos is learning to read - he is interested in words and he immediately uses words well, persuading Stannis to pay attention to the letter from Maester Aemon (another Targaryen). We might find evidence of Melisandre being "forged" by Davos because she says she feels stronger and more magical when she is at the Wall - her relocation to that place the result of Davos advising Stannis. 

One of the clues by which we will recognize Azor Ahai is that he or she won't need a glove to hold Lightbringer. Stannis uses a glove to handle the flaming sword that is part of the mast-burning show (destruction of the new gods carvings). I'm not sure how it will work, but I suspect that there will be some connection to the severed finger tips of Ser Davos that relates to the handling of the flaming sword. My suspicion is that the real Azor Ahai characters (yes, more than one) handle the swords by their blades, not by their hilts. We see this with Jon Snow finding the obsidian cache containing blades without hilts and with his handling of the flaming log from Jeor Mormont's fireplace, used to set the curtains on fire to defeat the White Walker in Mormont's chamber. Catelyn also grabs the blade of the catspaw. We will probably also see Azor Ahai figures making handles for swords: Jon Snow makes an ugly wooden handle for the obsidian dagger he keeps for himself; just before he dies, Joffrey tells Tyrion exactly what kind of decoration he wants on a dagger that he expects Tyrion to give him as a gift; Sam Tarly obtains the garnets for the new hilt of the sword Long Claw. 

But the fake Lightbringer sword Melisandre provides for Stannis is probably relevant to the "forging" of Lightbringer: because the author loves wordplay, of course he would introduce a "forgery" as part of the process of making a magical sword. 

I have theorized that Shiera Seastar was the personification of the sword Dark Sister. According to Egg, she bathed in blood to retain her beauty. I think this is something a sword would do: bathe in blood. I would need to read more discussion to know whether there is an objective standard of beauty that comes from bathing in blood. (Cressen says that Melisandre is thought to be beautiful but she is not.) When we finally get a Melisandre POV late in the series, it unfolds as she emerges from her bath. 

If Melisandre is another personification of a sword, I think we need to take a close look at the poisoning scene featuring the death of Cressen. Cressen puts the poison in the glass belonging to Davos - not because he wants to poison Davos but (the reader is led to presume) because the glass happens to be handy when Cressen sees his opportunity to go after Melisandre. Like the death of Ser Cortnay, I think the death of Cressen is another symbolic turning point in the downfall of the Targaryen / dragon bloodline. Cressen has always served at Dragonstone, a site associated with the beginning of the Targaryen dynasty. He drinks the poison that came from an indigo bottle: indigo is one of the colors associated with Targaryen eyes. Melisandre may be clearing out anyone with Targaryen blood in her attempts to promote Stannis as the true king. Of course, the Baratheon brothers also are Targaryen descendants, perhaps throwing a monkey wrench into Melisandre's efforts to annihilate the bloodline. 

(It may be interesting to note that Mace Tyrell gives Joffrey the goblet from which the king takes his last sip of wine. I know that there is a hot debate about whether Joffrey dies from ingesting the pigeon pie or from drinking poisoned wine, but I think the sources of the cups are details we need to keep in mind in the apparent "Strangler" poison deaths.) 

One part of this Davos / Azor and Melisandre / LIghtbringer theory comes from the name Stannis. The "Nissa" parallel to "Stannis" seems so obvious that it almost can't be possible. We will know, however, if Davos uses Melisandre to kill Stannis, that Stannis was always destined to be Nissa Nissa. He certainly does make a point of wearing a fiery heart sigil, almost begging to be a target. 

P.S. I believe the Thoros and Moqorro storylines provide additional support for the idea of the priests of the Red God as personified swords. Thoros tried to be a buddy to King Aerys but he was not welcomed. He had more success as a pal to King Robert. He was the first over the wall at Pyke (defeat of the Ironborn) where Ned was able to take charge of his ironborn ward, Theon (who seems to be the sword Ice personified). A thematic link between being "Ironborn" and forging a sword seems probable but it's interesting that here is also an Ironborn Rodrik the Reader character, tying the sword / words symbols together yet again.

Edit to add: The magical connection between Thoros and Ser Beric also seems relevant to the Lightbringer motif. There is probably a Storm Lord / Lightning Lord connection, and House Dondarrion is located in the Stormlands. The link between a flaming sword and a lightning bolt (Ser Beric's sigil) also seems significant. As "King's Men," loyal to King Robert, I think we are seeing a continuation of the Thoros / Robert friendship in the unique relationship of Thoros and Ser Beric. 

Moqorro successfully "forges" the fiery arm of Victarion, turning the Greyjoy uncle into a more effective weapon. Instead of Lightbringer, however, Victarion's arm may symbolize the sword Blackfyre. 

[chrisdaw]

AA is generally about someone second lifing a fire breathing dragon and saving the world against the Others in the Long Night. It will be Dany.

Stannis is going to second life as an ice dragon, true to form Mel has just got the two things confused.

[Curled Finger]

On 3/20/2022 at 8:13 AM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I'm actually more interested in whether he believes her or not. Why didn't he just send her away?

Stannis took a bite of Mel's apple and I think bought her PR--at very least he wants others to believe her.  Stannis has been a willing participant in the burning sacrifices and weird shadow baby deal.  Stannis looks among his few relatives and offers Edric Storm right up for sacrifice.   He allows himself to be leeched.  Stannis sees visions in the flames himself now.   

Theon 1 from TWOW shows a Stannis separate from his advisors.  Against impossible odds he will take Winterfell and be the device for reuniting the North.  Asha thinks he's up in the tower reading fires, but he's just kicking ass up there.  

[Alexis-something-Rose]

On 3/20/2022 at 11:13 AM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I'm actually more interested in whether he believes her or not. Why didn't he just send her away?

I think that it was because of Selyse at first and how utterly unpleasant the woman is and how doesn't really want to deal with her. She converted to R'hllor, became a religious zealot who has no problem letting her uncle burn. There would have been no end to her grievances if Stannis had sent Mel away.

And Stannis admits that Melisandre has power. And "The Seven have never brought me so much as a sparrow. It is time I tried another hawk, Davos. A red Hawk."

Plus we know that Stannis has had visions in the flames. Two of them that we know of. The one about the NW at the Fist of the First Men coupled with the letter Davos was given to read by Maester Pylos, led Stannis and Melisandre directly to the Wall.

[Seams]

I'm aware that I'm often mistaken on details so I went back to check on this recollection:

On 3/20/2022 at 4:13 PM, Seams said:

When we finally get a Melisandre POV late in the series, it unfolds as she emerges from her bath. 

I did misremember the details, but I think these elements of the POV were what put the bathing image in my head:

Quote

Sleep is a little death, dreams the whisperings of the Other, who would drag us all into his eternal night. She would sooner sit bathed in the ruddy glow of her red lord's blessed flames, her cheeks flushed by the wash of heat as if by a lover's kisses.

...

While the boy was gone, Melisandre washed herself and changed her robes. Her sleeves were full of hidden pockets, and she checked them carefully as she did every morning to make certain all her powders were in place. Powders to turn fire green or blue or silver, powders to make a flame roar and hiss and leap up higher than a man is tall, powders to make smoke. A smoke for truth, a smoke for lust, a smoke for fear, and the thick black smoke that could kill a man outright. The red priestess armed herself with a pinch of each of them.

(Dance, Melisandre I)

So it seems that Melisandre doesn't wash with water or blood, she washes with heat and fire. Then she clothes herself in a way that involves powders. There are numerous references to ashes in Melisandre's POV, including smoke (made of ashes), and I wonder whether the powders are part of that symbolism. Are her ubiquitous shadows also made of ash? If so, that is significant for the Mance / Rattleshirt glamor, as the wildling is described as being "cloaked in shadows ... in wisps of ragged grey mist" when he arrives at her chamber. 

The ash hints in Melisandre's POV strengthen my suspicion that the ash characters - Asha, Osha, Tysha and Shae - may hold clues for us in understanding Melisandre's future role in the story. On this re-read of the Melisandre POV, I was struck by her recollection that the arrows that killed Rattleshirt brought relief to her - the glamor ruby at her throat was burning her flesh until Jon Snow's archers killed the wildling who was slowly burning to death over the fire. This seems like a parallel to Tywin's death and the strangulation of Shae: Tyrion kills Tywin with a crossbow bolt and then strangles Shae with the Hand of the King neck chain. But why would Melisandre feel relief while, in the parallel scene, Shae dies? Maybe because death is only a temporary condition in ASOIAF and Shae will be (or has already been) reborn in a new character.

A parallel between Melisandre and Shae could also help us to understand why Tyrion (who stepped over fireplace ashes to reach Tywin's chamber) found Shae in his father's bedroom: she wasn't Tywin's lover per se, she was controlling him with a spell similar to Melisandre controlling Mance / Rattleshirt. Tyrion didn't wait for Shae to explain the situation before he killed her. 

If this parallel is correct, we have:

Melisandre = Shae

Jon Snow = Tyrion, and

Mance / Rattleshirt = Tywin.

But is there a role for Stannis in this parallel? My guess might be Stannis = Bronn. Bronn is the person who brings Shae to Tyrion. He is Tyrion's champion, doing a lot of his fighting for him and helping him in battle. Then again, it is Varys who guides Tyrion through the tunnels and to the base of the ladder leading to the fireplace in the Tower of the Hand. I'd have to put some more thought into it if the author wants us to compare Stannis to Varys. 

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

What I'm curious about is that ruby on her neck.  If she's using rubies to control Mance/ Rattleshirt does it follow that she is controlled through her own ruby? Has she been intentionally led down this road by someone unscrupulous enough to let her believe that she's actually hearing from her god?

What does she think of other Rh'llrites and their views, was she something of a heretic when she set out west? What do they think of her? is she acting in any sort of official capacity?

The whole thing's a mystery wrapped in an enigma.

 

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

On 3/22/2022 at 9:51 AM, Seams said:

But is there a role for Stannis in this parallel? My guess might be Stannis = Bronn. Bronn is the person who brings Shae to Tyrion. He is Tyrion's champion, doing a lot of his fighting for him and helping him in battle. Then again, it is Varys who guides Tyrion through the tunnels and to the base of the ladder leading to the fireplace in the Tower of the Hand. I'd have to put some more thought into it if the author wants us to compare Stannis to Varys

Or Bronn to Selyse?  I think we'd hear more about Bronn's facial hair if that were the case though.

[Loose Bolt]

7 hours ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

What I'm curious about is that ruby on her neck.

I assume that ruby is her power source. Or it is like kyber crystals in Star Wars. So her spells would not work without it.

[Moiraine Sedai]

Azor Ahai is associated with the fire element. A Targaryen. A Baratheon is the closest thing to a Targaryen around Mel. Dragonstone was his fief. He’s got the look of a fighter. He’s within a heartbeat of inheriting the throne from Robert.  Her mistake is understandable.
 

The other Prince, Viserys, was a poor prospect. He is Targaryen but penniless. And there is nothing less attractive to a woman than a penniless, unemployed man.  “(Cause the boy with the cold hard cash is always Mr. Right. Cause we are living . . . . . )”  You get it.  

The Princess was a 13 year old girl without an army.  The overall picture did not change until she brought back the dragons.
 

 

[Seams]

23 hours ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

What I'm curious about is that ruby on her neck.  If she's using rubies to control Mance/ Rattleshirt does it follow that she is controlled through her own ruby?

This is an excellent question. When I re-read that bit about her ruby burning her flesh when Rattleshirt was burning, I also wondered why or how she felt such anguish when the death-by-fire was her idea to begin with.

I also started to wonder about possible wordplay on "glamor" and "valar morghulis." Does Melisandre's glamor have a rival?

But the ruby is also interesting if you are at all open to anagrams as clues. I think the name Melisandre hides the word emerald. A couple other characters who hide emeralds in their names are Lady Ermesande (whose husband disappears in the Bread Riot - see below) and Denys Mallister (who I believe to be the leader of the Night's Watch version of Valhalla at the Shadow Tower).

I suspect that sapphires, emeralds and rubies will be significant in relationship to the three branches of the Trident. Are the three gems in a "rock, paper, scissors" relationship? Earlier in the thread, I compared Melisandre to Shiera Seastar and speculated that they might both be personified swords. Shiera was famous for wearing an emerald and sapphire necklace that matched her green and blue eyes. Here we have Melisandre wearing a ruby that matches her red eyes.

Of course, we also see important symbolism around garnets and amethysts.

There may also be wordplay around ruby / bury.

23 hours ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

Or Bronn to Selyse?  I think we'd hear more about Bronn's facial hair if that were the case though.

Oddly enough, I think we do need to discuss Selyse's mustache to get to the bottom of this mystery around Azor Ahai and Stannis.

As I have mentioned in other threads, I believe that GRRM gives us many pairs of opposites as clues to the conflicts and symbols in ASOIAF: bitter and sweet, smiler and slayer, dwarf and giant, ice and fire, well and wall, tunnel (or crypt) and tower, etc.

One of the pairs of opposites is shaggy and sharp. There are characters who are described as hairy or bearded and other characters who have sharp faces. Rickon's direwolf is named Shaggydog. Qhorin Halfhand's dying word is, "Sharp."

But there is also wordplay around "razor sharp" blades and "Azor" ahai. We know that razors are used for shaving hair, so the shaggy and sharp duality may be important to sorting out the Azor Ahai clues.

Selyse has a sharp nose but also hair growth on her upper lip. I suspect there are other characters who are described as having a "sharp" face or features who might also have long hair or a beard but I haven't made an effort to spot them or make a list. That might be worth doing, to see if Selyse has shaggy/sharp fellow travelers.

Based on some informed speculation about characters grouped around related names (Alysanne / Alayne / Lyanna; Bael / Baelor / Baelish; Payne / Dayne / Reyne, etc.), I would guess that Selyse is thematically related to Lysa. We know that Lysa has lost her youthful beauty except for her lovely long auburn hair. Perhaps there is something about faded beauty or shrewish wives or marginally fertile mothers represented by Selyse and Lysa.

The shaggy symbolism probably relates to the hair/heir pun: Catelyn says, "Don't cut my hair. Ned loves my hair," just as her heir (Robb) is being killed. We know that Cersei's children are not the heirs to Robert Baratheon because of their hair color. Yoren cuts Arya's hair to make her look like a boy. The Silent Sisters shave Cersei's hair. Dany's hair is burned off by dragon fire. Jon Arryn's potential heir is called Harry the Heir.

Perhaps significantly, in the Melisandre POV, a character named Hairy Hal is killed by the wildling madman known as The Weeper. He is one of three victims to have his eyes gouged out and to be beheaded: Black Jack Bulwer, Hairy Hal, and Garth Greyfeather. The deaths of the three Night's Watch brothers seem like omens for the violence soon to befall Jon Snow and others in the Castle Black circle. Melisandre predicted their deaths.

You may also be right to compare Bronn and Selyse. Bronn is definitely part of the fertility cycle symbolism. He marries Lollys, whose baby has half a hundred fathers after she is gang raped by small folk during the Bread Riot. (It is not meaningless that the incident is called the Bread Riot, as this relates to the symbolism of the wheat harvest.) House Stokeworth is the bread basket for King's Landing, providing much of the food for the capital city.

Hmm. Lollys may be part of the Lysa / Selyse name group, too. I think we may be onto something here.

Bronn is part of the "brown" name group I suspect may be related to dirt, which is a necessary foundation for the earth's fertility cycle. The brown group contrasts with the green group that relates to plants. As a member of House Florent, Selyse is part of the green group.

Sorry. I bet you weren't hoping for a stupid long response to your tidy observations. But maybe someone from this forum will spot something meaningful in this long reply.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

8 minutes ago, Seams said:

Sorry. I bet you weren't hoping for a stupid long response to your tidy observations. But maybe someone from this forum will spot something meaningful in this long reply

Dude, I love it. Thanks. Will follow up, but I'm just about at EOD here.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

On 3/24/2022 at 3:45 PM, Seams said:

But the ruby is also interesting if you are at all open to anagrams as clues. I think the name Melisandre hides the word emerald. A couple other characters who hide emeralds in their names are Lady Ermesande (whose husband disappears in the Bread Riot - see below) and Denys Mallister (who I believe to be the leader of the Night's Watch version of Valhalla at the Shadow Tower).

This is interesting.  Honestly a name like lady Ermesande strikes me as the kind of name someone trying to hide the word emerald in a name would come up with. Other than demonstrating Lannister cynicism, what is that kid here for anyway?

Rubies Emeralds and Sapphires... We see red enter green in a couple of instances, I think Sansa has a couple of passages like that, we have Rhaegar's famous rubies falling into the green fork of the Trident, Does Red Mel hint at something of a backsplash by hiding an emerald in her own name?

Could it suggest she's a fraud?  She thinks she's a fire priestess but in fact she's being manipulated by a greenseer? (You know that's what I want it to mean, but that's where investigations stop and speculation takes over). 

Is she an inverted bloodstone?

Love the shaggy/ sharp observations. Man, I find this story is so dense that sometimes I marvel at how fast he writes it.

Martin's spoken about the character Bronn and how he wasn't a planned character but was cooked up on the road to the Airey, but either that's a load of BS or he had some idea of a character and let Bronn fill that role as he developed. Bronn Tyrion and Lollys are a really interesting loveless triangle. Charting out their history vs the loveless triangle of Stannis, Selyse and Mellisandre might have a worthy payoff.

[the trees have eyes]

On 3/19/2022 at 6:05 PM, Hugorfonics said:

I think Nissa Nissa is a big part of the prophecy as well, which may be why Melisandre pushed Stannis to murder his beloved brother Renly or their nephew Edric.

Stan can't stand Renly though (and vice versa) and he cares nothing for Edric.  Or for his wife for that matter.  Which leaves Shireen, his only child and heir, if Stan / Mel were to try and re-enact that. It doesn't quite fit for me, however I look at it, which is why trying to fulfil prophecy or a pre-ordained role usually backfires in story.  It's almost always misunderstood or the actions people take to achieve it have a chaotic effect and the prophecy is fulfiled in a completely unforeseen way, and  it turns out the who and how was hidden right under their noses all along.

On 3/19/2022 at 6:33 PM, Lady Em said:

If you think about it, it also sounds really poetical somehow, saying that there are multiple heroes/Azor Ahais who can win against the darkness because that would lead you to the thought of something like "only together we can win against our enemy" which sounds really beautiful to me!

It's foreshadowed with the different myths and prophecies: The Last Hero, Azor Ahai Reborn, The Prince That Was Promised: "The dragon has three heads".  Dany, Jon and Bran all seem to have a role or a destiny to play out but smaller heroes like Davos and Sam have their seat at the table if not in a grand magical-historical sense.

 

On 3/19/2022 at 7:52 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Davos notes the physical toll that Stannis took when he murdered Renly, obviously this has more to do with the shadow baby, but still, Stannis will go to the grave thinking of his brothers peach. Stannis changed, as would anyone who kills their love. More so then Dany, who didn't really murder Drogo as much as pull a plug but not as much as Tyrion who's mind has truly drifted since he murdered Shae.

There's not much of sacrifice in any of those, though.  Love has turned to hate for Tyrion, Drogo is already gone to Dany's mind and Shadow Stannis kills Renly before Renly's forces kill Stannis in battle.  Of course there's no reason to believe either that Azor Ahai really loved his wife as much as the story makes out or that an equivalent sacrifice is required but if we're waking dragons from stone Dany definitely looks the part. 

On 3/20/2022 at 2:04 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I think that the flames were leading Melisandre to Jon because she is going instrumental to his rebirth. GRRM gave us a timeline for that in Jon XIII.

"A grey girl on a dying horse. Daggers in the dark. A promised prince, born in smoke and salt. It seems to me that you make nothing but mistakes, my lady. Where is Stannis? What of Rattleshirt and his spearwives? Where is my sister?" (Jon XIII, ADwD)

The girl on the dying horse has come and gone. The daggers in the dark happen at the very end of Jon's final chapter, the promised prince born in smoke and salt will be in TWoW.

I like this but I'm not convinced Jon's dead.  I don't remember: what has Mel told him about the promised prince to make him throw that in at the end of the other two visions Mel has told him about, both of which were intended to gain his trust?

[Springwatch]

2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

I don't remember: what has Mel told him about the promised prince to make him throw that in at the end of the other two visions Mel has told him about, both of which were intended to gain his trust?

I'd guess Jon has been talking to Aemon, or heard about Aemon's scepticism from Sam. It was Aemon who first brought up the prince that was promised, and checked the new Lightbringer for heat.

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

4 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

I like this but I'm not convinced Jon's dead.  I don't remember: what has Mel told him about the promised prince to make him throw that in at the end of the other two visions Mel has told him about, both of which were intended to gain his trust?

About what Melisandre told Jon about the prince that was promised, it's more of an escalation on Jon's part and his frustration at Melisandre coming out. Melisandre was wrong about the grey girl on the dying horse, which he's not letting her forget, he thinks she's wrong about the daggers in the dark, the prince that was promised is directly connected to him giving push back on the whole Stannis being Azor Ahai because he was born at Storm's End. He wants to know where Rattleshirt and the spearwives are, where Stannis is and where his sister is.

Straight up, I think that the whole "grey girl on the dying horse, daggers in the dark, a promised prince born in salt and smoke," is GRRM outlining and giving us an outline of what's about to happen. The three events are all connected to Jon. The grey girl was supposed to be Arya, the daggers in the dark is his stabbing. 

The grey girl on the dying horse has already happened if the grey girl is Alys Karstark or should be happening just as Jon is stabbed if Jeyne Poole is the grey girl. Her arrival at CB fits the timeline.

By the end of the chapter, Jon is stabbed by his sworn brothers.

So we have the first two events here, leaving only the last one, the promised prince. So Jon's rebirth should essentially be in full swing in TWoW. 

I don't think it matters whether Jon or Jon's body is dead or not. I don't think it changes much, tbh, especially since it seems that he warged into Ghost, given what Melisandre sees in the flames in her chapter. 

[Darth Sidious]

Mellissandre was led astray. And will again. Stannis, Aegon, and Jon are all false dragons. None of the three are Azor Ahai. Just remember the prophecy and the three lies.  

[Hugorfonics]

On 4/1/2022 at 10:51 AM, the trees have eyes said:

Stan can't stand Renly though

Still loved him

Quote

 "Only Renly could vex me so with a piece of fruit. He brought his doom on himself with his treason, but I did love him, Davos. I know that now. I swear, I will go to my grave thinking of my brother's peach."

 

On 4/1/2022 at 10:51 AM, the trees have eyes said:

and he cares nothing for Edric

Of course he does

 

On 4/1/2022 at 10:51 AM, the trees have eyes said:

Which leaves Shireen, his only child and heir, if Stan / Mel were to try and re-enact that

Her future is not promising

On 4/1/2022 at 10:51 AM, the trees have eyes said:

It doesn't quite fit for me, however I look at it, which is why trying to fulfil prophecy or a pre-ordained role usually backfires in story.  It's almost always misunderstood or the actions people take to achieve it have a chaotic effect and the prophecy is fulfiled in a completely unforeseen way, and  it turns out the who and how was hidden right under their noses all along.

Ramsay&Reek?

On 4/1/2022 at 10:51 AM, the trees have eyes said:

There's not much of sacrifice in any of those, though.  Love has turned to hate for Tyrion,

He's still madly in love. (Emphasize the madly part). Lots of hate too, sure, more hate then love if anything, but still love.

On 4/1/2022 at 10:51 AM, the trees have eyes said:

Drogo is already gone to Dany's mind

She accepted his fate but Dany murdering her husband was pretty hard for her, even now years later she would still say she loves Drogo. (Think of her guilt over Darrio, like she's not a widow who needs to move on with her life)

On 4/1/2022 at 10:51 AM, the trees have eyes said:

Of course there's no reason to believe either that Azor Ahai really loved his wife as much as the story makes out or that an equivalent sacrifice is required but if we're waking dragons from stone Dany definitely looks the part. 

Her, some Lannisters, a few Starks, surprisingly many Greyjoys, a Bolton, Davos, Brienne, and Moonboy for all I know

[the trees have eyes]

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Still loved him

Not very much.  Next you'll be telling me he loved Robert and Robert loved them both, and so on.  Sure, there's a sibling connection but the rivalry far outweighs any geniune affection.  There's some guilt and regret as he and Renly practically fought each other right before Renly died in some very suspicious circumstances, with Stan asleep in his tent unable to be woken....

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Of course he does

Edric was raised at Storm's End wasn't he?  Stannis barely even knows him, if he does at all.

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

He's still madly in love. (Emphasize the madly part). Lots of hate too, sure, more hate then love if anything, but still love.

He's fantasizing about finding his one true love: Tysha.  Jaime tells him she was for real and he comes to get Tywin to tell him where he sent her.  Cue dramatic encounter with Shae and severe working through of daddy issues with Tywin.

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

She accepted his fate but Dany murdering her husband was pretty hard for her, even now years later she would still say she loves Drogo. (Think of her guilt over Darrio, like she's not a widow who needs to move on with her life)

Absolutely.  Her love for him is genuine but she is not giving up some rosy future with Drogo or depriving Drogo of years of happiness, she's ending his suffering.  It's poignant but it's not a sacrifice for either of them.