Alarich II Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Apparently Ukrainian forces have managed to strike at Russian ships that docked at the port of occupied Berdyansk and sunk the Orsk, a landing ship, - after a Russian propaganda video revealed the exact location of the ship. I guess it's still true that loose lips sink ships. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 5 hours ago, Heartofice said: I’d just suggest caution with a lot of this positive news, we are bombarded with it daily and it gives us the impression that the Russians are doomed to fail. It’s a nice thought but still unlikely. Even if the assault on Kyiv fails initially, the grindingly slow advance on the south and the east continues. If and when Mariupol falls / is flattened it might make it a bit easier for the Russians to surround and prevent supplies to the Ukrainians operating in the east. i think that the new focus for Russia is the South and East and we should be watching closely what is happening there in the future. I am definitely trying to hold my optimism in check. I'm well aware that we get plenty of news of Ukrainian successes and very little news of Ukrainian setbacks. The Russians are not advancing in the south, in the past week they have lost (a little) ground outside Kherson and that's about it. In the east, it is hard to get a read on the situation, and there is a salient of Ukrainian forces that is worrisome. However, the Russians are a long way from closing off that salient, and their progress has been very slow. If they make a sudden breakthrough, then yes, this could turn into a real victory for Russia, but there is no reason to assume such a breakthrough is imminent. Zooming out, there's no question that the war has gone very poorly for Russia in the first month. They have attempted and discarded at least two different plans for winning this war (lightning decapitation in first 48 hours, overwhelming force/numbers in first two weeks). They are now on plan C, a grinding war of attrition. Could the Russians turn it around? Absolutely, they are still the larger country with more of basically everything that matters in a war. If they replace their incompetent generals with competent ones, win air superiority, supply their troops better to improve morale, and start cutting off Western supplies into the Eastern third of the country, then they could realistically capture a large portion of Ukraine. But things need to change for that to happen, and we shouldn't just assume that they will. Many of the weaknesses that have been exposed in the past month are by design. Putin prefers his generals to be unimaginative and his troops to be poorly fed because a strong, professional army could challenge him. Will he be willing to change that to win in Ukraine? I don't know. But if he doesn't, the military is likely to continue to underperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Maithanet said: I am definitely trying to hold my optimism in check. I'm well aware that we get plenty of news of Ukrainian successes and very little news of Ukrainian setbacks. I think this is true, we are not hearing that, which makes me a little suspicious. We are undoubtedly hearing a rosier picture than the reality, how much rosier is not clear. 2 minutes ago, Maithanet said: The Russians are not advancing in the south, in the past week they have lost (a little) ground outside Kherson and that's about it. In the east, it is hard to get a read on the situation, and there is a salient of Ukrainian forces that is worrisome. However, the Russians are a long way from closing off that salient, and their progress has been very slow. If they make a sudden breakthrough, then yes, this could turn into a real victory for Russia, but there is no reason to assume such a breakthrough is imminent. Yeah agree, its notable there has been very little change in circumstances recently, but I also suspect that might be a factor in the slower, grindier approach to winning the war, which is more about wearing down the opposition and laying waste to areas. That doesn't mean that there won't be a breakthrough, or a point where the waters break and the Ukrainians are in a much worse position. 5 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Zooming out, there's no question that the war has gone very poorly for Russia in the first month. They have attempted and discarded at least two different plans for winning this war (lightning decapitation in first 48 hours, overwhelming force/numbers in first two weeks). They are now on plan C, a grinding war of attrition. Could the Russians turn it around? Absolutely, they are still the larger country with more of basically everything that matters in a war. If they replace their incompetent generals with competent ones, win air superiority, supply their troops better to improve morale, and start cutting off Western supplies into the Eastern third of the country, then they could realistically capture a large portion of Ukraine. But things need to change for that to happen, and we shouldn't just assume that they will. Absolutely, they've had to change course a number of times because their plans have gone badly. I'm just still not letting myself get carried away by any of that, because there are far too many reasons why the Russians would win the war, even if they appear to be far far weaker and less impressive than they appeared a few months ago. I'm still not seeing how Ukraine get out of this war without essentially giving in to many of Russia's current demands, and losing a good chunk of the East of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3CityApache Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Air Force One with POTUS on board just landed in Rzeszow-Jasionka airport, less than 100 km from Polish-Ukrainian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken one Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Maybe there's somebody who did not see it yet. It's an interview with Zelensky's advisor, Alexey Arestovich, shot in 2019. Some parts are prophetic, worth watching imo. Actually I strongly recommend watching it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 29 minutes ago, Heartofice said: Absolutely, they've had to change course a number of times because their plans have gone badly. I'm just still not letting myself get carried away by any of that, because there are far too many reasons why the Russians would win the war, even if they appear to be far far weaker and less impressive than they appeared a few months ago. I'm still not seeing how Ukraine get out of this war without essentially giving in to many of Russia's current demands, and losing a good chunk of the East of the country. Russia has kept it's official war aims ambiguous, so if they feel that the war is no longer serving their needs, they can negotiate a peace fairly quickly. They basically want as much of Ukraine as they can steal, along with a timetable for the West to lift sanctions. It remains uncertain whether Russia can really win an grinding war with Ukraine. It seems like they ought to be able to, but they ought to be able to win a quick war with Ukraine and they certainly failed there. Ukraine has the advantage of being the defender, holding interior lines, higher morale, a better officer corps, and having supplies of basically everything provided for them by NATO. Russia has the advantage of a much larger fleet of tanks, planes and artillery and not having to care about civilian casualties. I'm not saying that Russia can't eventually grind Ukraine down to powder, maybe they can. But Ukraine's advantages are real and meaningful, and there is definitely a possibility that it is the Russians who are wearing down. At least among infantry, the Ukrainians can replace their losses more easily than Russia can. For planes not so much. So given the starting point that the Ukrainians could maybe win, let's look at the positions on the ground. On three fronts we see one stalemate (South), one area with minimal Russian advances (East), and one front where the Ukrainians are making real progress (North). I think it is a real possibility that Russia sues for peace in the coming weeks if that continues*. * Unless Russia opts to escalate with WMDs instead, which they may. But thus far they have not, and I'm just hoping it stays that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Unclear what, if anything, this means in practical terms, but it's worth keeping an eye on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 It means they've failed to take Odesa and the coastal strip, they've failed to take Kyiv and Kharkiv and they're now pivoting to focus on Donbas, the one area they think they can secure a victory. It suggests a downgrading of war aims to something more realistic and achievable, and they will be focusing everything to that end to hopefully (for them) achieve something that can be sold as a victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 That sounds a bit like what I was suspecting, that they have given up on trying to get Kyiv, and are going to focus on something a bit more doable, and sell that as a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Not being able to take Odessa I'm sure is a bit fail for them though, I would have thought that would have been a winnable goal, and probably quite important to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Just now, Heartofice said: Not being able to take Odessa I'm sure is a bit fail for them though, I would have thought that would have been a winnable goal, and probably quite important to them. Which is why we need to supply Ukraine with long range anti-ship missiles… yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 30 minutes ago, broken one said: Maybe there's somebody who did not see it yet. It's an interview with Zelensky's advisor, Alexey Arestovich, shot in 2019. Some parts are prophetic, worth watching imo. Actually I strongly recommend watching it I think this is prophetic and interesting. He also notes that if Ukraine is invaded, the West will back it to the hilt with weapons and support and Ukraine could endure the war and end up in a reasonably strong position to avoid total annexation. He also seems reasonably certain that Russia will not use nuclear weapons, and they will be used to effectively create a safe area of operation for Russia (Russia can basically attack the West and West-adjacent allies without fear of nuclear reprisals knowing that Russia itself is secure). One thing that he does discount is Putin's age and the effective barrier on his role in the situation, which he sees stretching into the 2030s. It might be logical to assume that Putin at 70 or 72 or even 76 might retain control of Russia and be able to orchestrate events, but it becomes more fanciful when he is in his 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Which is why we need to supply Ukraine with long range anti-ship missiles… yesterday. I wonder now whether the attacks on ships are a sign that Ukraine is indeed going to reinforce their efforts in the south first, reducing the danger of Russian ship artillery so that they have fewer troubles breaking through Mariupol's encirclement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Werthead said: It means they've failed to take Odesa and the coastal strip, they've failed to take Kyiv and Kharkiv and they're now pivoting to focus on Donbas, the one area they think they can secure a victory. It suggests a downgrading of war aims to something more realistic and achievable, and they will be focusing everything to that end to hopefully (for them) achieve something that can be sold as a victory. I hope that's true. There are still reports that Russia is mustering forces for another push on Kyiv, I think that the British Intelligence Report from yesterday mentioned it. But I feel like the recent setbacks around Kyiv make that pretty unlikely. If Russia is going to refocus on driving south from Irpin and North from Donetsk, that would help their political goals (taking the entire Donetsk area) and it looks like a point of vulnerability for Ukraine. At the very least, it is the most challenging area for Ukraine to supply. But if the Russians pull back from Kyiv that will free up a LOT of the Ukrainian army as well, and they will certainly move those forces where needed. 4 minutes ago, Toth said: I wonder now whether the attacks on ships are a sign that Ukraine is indeed going to reinforce their efforts in the south first, reducing the danger of Russian ship artillery so that they have fewer troubles breaking through Mariupol's encirclement. I don't know if relieving Mariupol is a realistic goal anytime soon. Just pushing the Russians out of Kherson will be very hard, and Mariupol is like 200 km east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 An interesting article from “the Atlantic” containing an informal interview with an American fighting with the Ukrainians: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/american-volunteer-foreign-fighters-ukraine-russia-war/627604/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 38 minutes ago, Werthead said: It means they've failed to take Odesa and the coastal strip, they've failed to take Kyiv and Kharkiv and they're now pivoting to focus on Donbas, the one area they think they can secure a victory. It suggests a downgrading of war aims to something more realistic and achievable, and they will be focusing everything to that end to hopefully (for them) achieve something that can be sold as a victory. Right, that's what it sounds like. But does that mean pulling back forces from other areas so they concentrate on Donbas or trying to dig in and hold what they have? Because if they fully focused on Donbas I think they could take it, but I don't know if Russia would want to give up any of the land they currently occupy. And if they keep trying to hold everything they've got, then this statement doesn't really reflect any changes on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Fez said: Right, that's what it sounds like. But does that mean pulling back forces from other areas so they concentrate on Donbas or trying to dig in and hold what they have? Because if they fully focused on Donbas I think they could take it, but I don't know if Russia would want to give up any of the land they currently occupy. And if they keep trying to hold everything they've got, then this statement doesn't really reflect any changes on the ground. That's a big question. From a negotiating standpoint, they would probably be best to identify some strong defensive positions and retreat to those. Then they can hold a portion of Ukraine in the North and South as bargaining chips while freeing up forces to attack in the East. Maybe that's what we're seeing East of Kyiv (the Ukrainian advanced like 20-30 km in the space of a few days). But there are other areas (around Sumy and Chernihiv, for example) where that is pretty clearly not happening, where the Russian lines and logistics situation is mess but (thus far) they have not retreated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Fragging has apparently already begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Fez said: Fragging has apparently already begun Does anyone blame these folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Who is this Western Official I keep hearing about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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