Werthead Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 55 minutes ago, mormont said: I imagine the Russian position is that it's not the same thing, having Russian units within Russian borders vs. having American units in third countries that border Russia. The Russians have a different outlook here: they see NATO as just a way of America (and to a lesser extent the UK, France and Germany) being able to project military threat across Europe and right up to the Russian border under a fig leaf of 'alliance'. Even this doesn't wash: Russia has military personnel and formations on the soil of its allies, including Syria, Transnistria, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Armena, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. They're also building a new base in Sudan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a free shadow Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 On 3/28/2022 at 1:47 PM, Werthead said: That is the problem: Russia is basically angling to have superiority over its neighbours and make them do what it wants, not true equality. a blank, not phrased understandably outgoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, a free shadow said: It is not angling, it is very direct about it. Only with staggered efficiency. What do you think, how big of a win for them is Ukraine accepting forced 'neutrality' as a part of the 'peace' deal? They don’t want a “neutral” Ukraine. They want a disarmed satellite state. An armed “neutral” Ukraine is absolutely a loss for the Russians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Russia is claiming it should have the authority to tell any nation that borders Russia what military may and may not be stationed inside those nations. That’s always going to be problematic. Agreed. But let's remember that with the exception of Cuba, this is largely a theoretical problem for the US, but an actual one for Russia. If the US were in Russia's place, I'm sure they'd be trying to make sure neighbouring countries did not host potentially hostile forces. Then again, they probably wouldn't be trying to deal with it in quite the same way. I'm not making a moral argument here or suggesting that Russia's position is justifiable, just noting that the situation Russia faces is not one that the US faces. 2 hours ago, Werthead said: Even this doesn't wash: Russia has military personnel and formations on the soil of its allies, including Syria, Transnistria, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Armena, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. They're also building a new base in Sudan. Very true. It's certainly not true that the Russians are making any sort of principled argument against US presence in their neighbours. It's purely a practical and self-centred one. 1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: They don’t want a “neutral” Ukraine. They want a disarmed satellite state. An armed “neutral” Ukraine is absolutely a loss for the Russians. But is it a good enough place for them to pause? Ukraine is going to be neutral like Finland is neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 @mormont Is the US hypocritical for defending Ukraine given US behavior during the Cuban Missile Crisis? Perhaps. I would have to say there is a qualitative difference between MANPADs and Nuclear Missiles. Regardless, US hypocrisy (if it does exist) in no way justifies the Russian invasion. Do you think the Russians will be satisfied with Ukraine patterning after Finland given Russian warnings to Finland about joining NATO. I don’t as I said before an armed Neutral Ukraine is a loss for the Russians. Will Ukrainian Neutrality prompt a “pause” do the Russians have the ability to continue give the last Month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 So, umm, yeah I'm baffled by this. It's not like when Russia killed various Chechen leaders under the guise of peace talks. None of these Ukrainians are decision makers; killing them would do precisely nothing. Except further strengthen Ukrainian resolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Fez said: So, umm, yeah I'm baffled by this. It's not like when Russia killed various Chechen leaders under the guise of peace talks. None of these Ukrainians are decision makers; killing them would do precisely nothing. Except further strengthen Ukrainian resolve. This is interesting, but how much is there to go on this? It says 'consistent with', not confirmed. It also seemed they recovered by the morning? Sounds like a pretty poor poisoning attempt. Unless of course it was accidental and the real target was someone else, incompetence with Russian assassins seems to one of the job requirements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Looking at the FSB whistleblower stuff that's still coming out, it sounds like (in the leaker's opinion) there is a pivoting going on from blaming the FSB to blaming Shoigu and the military command. It also sounds like there's talk going on of a "distraction" effort somewhere else, possibly in Serbia or Armenia, although it sounds like the Serbian plan is dubious because they don't think it has a high probability of success (i.e. getting Serbia to start up trouble over Kosovo again), mainly as Western intelligence is too active in Serbia versus Russian intelligence. It sounds like Ukraine has full driven Russian forces out of Irpin, but Irpin is still in range of artillery, so it's not "safe" as yet. Russia is also limiting visa entry to Russia for anyone from the countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corvinus85 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 57 minutes ago, Fez said: So, umm, yeah I'm baffled by this. It's not like when Russia killed various Chechen leaders under the guise of peace talks. None of these Ukrainians are decision makers; killing them would do precisely nothing. Except further strengthen Ukrainian resolve. Or a false flag since Abramovich got poisoned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Just now, Corvinus85 said: Or a false flag since Abramovich got poisoned? I get the impression Abramovich is not in the Kremlin's good graces any more. Too much time spent in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorn Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Werthead said: I get the impression Abramovich is not in the Kremlin's good graces any more. Too much time spent in the west. Zelensky mentioned him by name in his recent interview as someone trying to help Ukraine, and asked the Western leaders not to sanction him. Putin's earlier rant about traitors who live in the West and who are Russian in name only now makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Kyiv Independant reporting renewed Russian assault on western Suburbs of Kyiv: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Do you think the Russians will be satisfied with Ukraine patterning after Finland given Russian warnings to Finland about joining NATO. Finland couldn't even join the EU until 1995 because of "neutrality". Austria and Sweden were presumably in the same boat (also joined in 1995). "Neutrality" could be very limiting. Those countries did fine pre-accession but it was a very different world then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame deVenoge Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Gorn said: Zelensky mentioned him by name in his recent interview as someone trying to help Ukraine, and asked the Western leaders not to sanction him. Putin's earlier rant about traitors who live in the West and who are Russian in name only now makes sense. RINO = Russian In Name Only? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 I see the peace talks are going well, and I like this Ukrainian no fucks given approach to RTprop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Werthead said: I get the impression Abramovich is not in the Kremlin's good graces any more. Too much time spent in the west. Which is a bit confusing since there was a story a little while back that Putin had given Abramovich the go-ahead to organize the initial peace talks. Seems like a thing you'd want a trusted associate in charge of. But maybe not. Or maybe that story was incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: @mormont Is the US hypocritical for defending Ukraine given US behavior during the Cuban Missile Crisis? No. Hypocrisy is an overused criticism anyway, but my point was that this isn't a situation the US has faced: as you note, the Cuban missile crisis was very different. 4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Do you think the Russians will be satisfied with Ukraine patterning after Finland given Russian warnings to Finland about joining NATO. No. But will it do for now? I'm sure that Putin will regard any peace deal as merely a pause. For a few months, for years, who knows? But not forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clueless Northman Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 What's just as puzzling is that they would've been poisoned in Kiev, wouldn't they? Weird, at this point, one would expect the capital to be safer from Russian agents. A case of weird covid? Some hardcore FSB goons gone rogue? Some hardcore Ukrainians gone rogue? At least, doesn't look like really potent stuff thankfully. 1 minute ago, mormont said: No. They wouldn't be satisfied, but since it's their alleged main beef with Ukraine, they should be satisfied with Ukraine being new Finland, and negotiations should go accordingly - with Western hints that we'd accept this if Ukraine's ok with it, but Russia shouldn't press luck much further with outlandish requests. Time to see to which extent Putin is bluffing or is serious about his public complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 49 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Kyiv Independant reporting renewed Russian assault on western Suburbs of Kyiv: Ah shit, I guess I have to apologize to that Russian troll who keeps pestering me right now in the comments of a Hearts of Iron 4 Youtube video. He somehow brought up how much the "Russians are winning against the Ukrainian rabble on all fronts" and said I gave him a good laugh when answering they have already given up on Kyiv as a main target. However German news is now saying Ukraine claims to have retaken the village Mala Rohan 4 kilmeters EAST of Kharkiv. Didn't really expect them to drive back the north-eastern advance of the Russians while Kyiv is still under threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darryk Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Werthead said: I get the impression Abramovich is not in the Kremlin's good graces any more. Too much time spent in the west. Imagine being punished by the West for being associated with Putin, then being punished by Putin for being associated with the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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