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Ukraine 10: Lviv free


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15 hours ago, Toth said:

Update on the Russian guy on Youtube: Apparently linking him to videos of dead bodies in Mariupol didn't work out that well. After a couple of other guys then asked him how he can be this pro-Russien, he's now ranting about how he "knows the whole story", that Ukraine is full of Nazis who murder Russians ever since 2014 and that I'm brainwashed by Goebbels propaganda for thinking otherwise when I write "People are dying. Don't be fine with that."

Sigh...

I ran into one of those jackasses yesterday who attempted to lean on my religious predilections to get me to buy into his conspiracy horseshit.

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1 minute ago, HoodedCrow said:

Paid trolls on YouTube? I wonder how many?

If this whole Corona denier bullshit taught us anything at all, then it is that people don't need to be paid to defend the indefensible. It is already sufficient when people have invested so heavily in a world view that they can't afford to question it no matter the cost.

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2 hours ago, Fez said:

And admitting that Ukraine can strike inside Russia seems more embarrassing than admitting that a few Russian soldiers fucked up badly, so this seems like an unlikely cover-up.

As not true as it can be. Russians do not admit fault, epecially an embarassing one. They are mostly persecuted by treacherous enemies, who most often attack them as they are generously showing their goodwill. For example, evacuating the remenants of their forces for repositioning benevolently withdrawing their troops from Kyiv.

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3 hours ago, Fez said:

Russian state-owned news at least is apparently claiming that it was a Ukrainian strike and that 4 Russian servicemen were injured; saying that a "shell" hit the depot

I suppose it could be a false-flag op, but striking a legit military target that would hurt your own war effort seems like an odd choice for a false-flag. Or the shell could've accidently come from a Russian mistarget.

And admitting that Ukraine can strike inside Russia seems more embarrassing than admitting that a few Russian soldiers fucked up badly, so this seems like an unlikely cover-up.

 

I dunno, haven’t they been saying that their objective is to protect Russia itself from Ukraine and NATO? I can see them staging it to demonstrate they had a retroactive reason. Wouldn’t make any less sense than the rest of Putin’s plan so far

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6 hours ago, Fury Resurrected said:

I dunno, haven’t they been saying that their objective is to protect Russia itself from Ukraine and NATO? I can see them staging it to demonstrate they had a retroactive reason. Wouldn’t make any less sense than the rest of Putin’s plan so far

Ukrainians have already attacked Russian airbases on Russian territory with missles (Millerov, Taganrog). I might have missed something but I think Russians did not make such retro-justification out of that. Were they not shameless enough? Cannot believe it.

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Something you haven't heard that often in the past 15-20 years or so.

Can we talk about Nokia for a moment.

 

What's so remarkable about that? Do think western countries don't eavesdrop on their citizens? And of course cellphones allow them to track you, too. Everybody selling networking gear is probably heavily involved in this kind of thing.

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11 hours ago, Toth said:

If this whole Corona denier bullshit taught us anything at all, then it is that people don't need to be paid to defend the indefensible. It is already sufficient when people have invested so heavily in a world view that they can't afford to question it no matter the cost.

It can be dangerous to automatically see the expressed ridiculous views of someone as simply an act.

Hitler’s rhetoric was dismissed by some as simply a means to get his party in power and expected he’d moderate once he became chancellor.

His actions were the natural progression from his ideological leanings. 
 

However it can be dangerous to always assume someone’s ridiculously stated are done in good faith. 

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Another great Ukraine interview on NPR regarding peace negotiations.

They discussed the importance of 1994.

At that time Ukraine had the Worlds 3rd largest nuclear arsenal. They agreed to surrender it in exchange for security guarantees from Russia but also the U.S. and other Western powers were signatory to those protections.

Ukraine now feels betrayed from all of the above and it is a factor in peace negotiations as they want something more substantial and binding for future security guarantees than a letter.

1994 looms in their memory, and rightly so imo.

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29 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Another great Ukraine interview on NPR regarding peace negotiations.

They discussed the importance of 1994.

At that time Ukraine had the Worlds 3rd largest nuclear arsenal. They agreed to surrender it in exchange for security guarantees from Russia but also the U.S. and other Western powers were signatory to those protections.

Ukraine now feels betrayed from all of the above and it is a factor in peace negotiations as they want something more substantial and binding for future security guarantees than a letter.

1994 looms in their memory, and rightly so imo.


It also sends a bad message for other states who’ve aligned with the us; that they need to arm themselves with nukes immediately because they can’t rely on the fear of the US to save them.

If Ukraine fell it would dramatically cement that idea.

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1 hour ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Another great Ukraine interview on NPR regarding peace negotiations.

They discussed the importance of 1994.

At that time Ukraine had the Worlds 3rd largest nuclear arsenal. They agreed to surrender it in exchange for security guarantees from Russia but also the U.S. and other Western powers were signatory to those protections.

Ukraine now feels betrayed from all of the above and it is a factor in peace negotiations as they want something more substantial and binding for future security guarantees than a letter.

1994 looms in their memory, and rightly so imo.

That's true, but it's also worth noting that although they had the nukes, they had no way of maintaining them safely, and they didn't have the launch codes so could not use them (although maybe they could have overcome that with 30 years and the help of the US). Obviously they are regretting that now, but maybe not: if they still had nukes and had fired a few off at Moscow and other major cities, they'd have lost their moral high ground and had the country flattened by Russia in response (or Russia would have tried to have done it first; Ukraine didn't have any submarines to launch a second strike).

I do agree it's a precedent for how they behave now, though, and are quite right in being sceptical of more of the kind of deals that have led to this very moment.

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Russia and Ukraine seem to agree that the talks made some progress, including putting things down on paper that could form the basis of either a ceasefire or a permanent peace. However, Russia has also said that Crimea is part of Russia and that is something that should not be open to discussion (I suspect it will be, in some fashion). What is interesting is that they were extremely insistent on Crimea but not Donetsk-Luhansk, leaving open the possibility of territorial discussions with referendums and a peace process unfolding over several years there.

Both sides are in the odd place of saying there's been encouraging progress (and Turkey has said the progress is the most significant since the start of the conflict) but also playing down the idea of an imminent, major breakthrough, but then they'd probably be doing that even if there was.

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4 minutes ago, broken one said:

They do the dance because everyone else expects them to, but I think both are not really interested in ending the war right now.

Yup. I think Russia wants to fully secure the Crimea-Donbas corridor on the ground before seriously talking Turkey (so to speak) and Ukraine wants to see if they can, at the very least, retake Kherson.

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Dunno, maybe it's because one may use Ruble instead of coal for central heating, so there's demand for it on market?

btw. I hope the Polish - Hungarian "friendship" (tactical alliance of regimes to get away with their misbehaviour in EU) will become fatality of the war.

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29 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I noticed the Rouble has almost gotten back to its original level , which points to the sanctions not being as effective as we’d hoped. I haven’t seen anything that explains why it’s managed to recover. Any ideas?

Because most of the world is not sanctioning Russia. India and China have actually increased purchases. And most importantly, rouble surged up a few days ago when Russia demanded that all gas purchases by EU (and all other states that sanctioned Russia) be made in roubles with other exports to follow. The deadline is tomorrow so we will see what will happen. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/30/germany-declares-early-warning-amid-fears-of-gas-supply-crisis

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I was wondering when Russian legion will emerge, and there it is. According to Ukrainian intelligence about 100 men (POVs or deserters?) prepare to fight for Ukraine. It makes me think of Vlasov and RLA, hope these guys have some brighter future ahead.

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6 minutes ago, broken one said:

I was wondering when Russian legion will emerge, and there it is. According to Ukrainian intelligence about 100 men (POVs or deserters?) prepare to fight for Ukraine. It makes me think of Vlasov and RLA, hope these guys have some brighter future ahead.

This sounds positive, but I tend to be quite sceptical. Joining the other side means you will basically never be accepted anywhere, and I find it unlikely it would happen at any great scale. It might be a good news story, which suggests to me this is probably more like propaganda than anything else. 

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