Ukraine 10: Lviv free

[RhaenysBee]

To be fair, I don’t think Visegrad 24 is the most reliable source of information. Also, since when have MPs words had any merit whatsoever? Maybe my view is skewed because I can only think of local parliament broadcasts, but half of MPs ramblings is empty bullshit, and the other half is downright lies. I don’t think there’s any weight or substance to this statement. [the Russian MP’s statement about Poland and the Baltics]

 

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Just heard the BBC explain that Biden didn't say remove Putin from power in Russia, but Putin must be removed from power over Ukraine.  Per usual, almost, seemingly, deliberate mis-hearing / mis-reporyting what Biden said.  Biden himself says that any call for Russian regime change would make any cease fire / peace negotiations out of the question and he would never do that.

Yes it was an off the cuff statement not in his prepared remarks and the White House is currently walking it back.  But no, the media wasn't wrong to report what he said.  That's Biden's mistake, not the media's.

[Zorral]

But we all know / knew Biden's perspective on this before-hand, so he gets no slack, for being clearly emotional from what he's seeing and hearing, and momentarily his speech impediment getting the best of him?

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Zorral said:

But we all know / knew Biden's perspective on this before-hand, so he gets no slack, for being clearly emotional from what he's seeing and hearing, and momentarily his speech impediment getting the best of him?

I mean, I don't think it's a big deal as long as they walk it back, but it was a gaffe.  Obviously those are typical of Biden and part of his charm, but you don't wanna be making gaffes like that.

[Werthead]

Reports coming in from Slavutych, near Chernobyl, that Russian occupiers failed to quell a peaceful protest with tear gas and stun grenades, and when the entire town turned out against them, the Russian CO negotiated for his men to leave in return a nominal sweep of the town to confirm no Ukrainian military personnel were present. The Mayor, who'd been detained, was then released unharmed.

[SpaceChampion]

26 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

don't know how to properly evaluate this. perhaps the tech types here have a clue:

Appears to be a mesh network.  Starlink uses that too, and so far the Russians haven't been able to jam it or hack it.

[Zorral]

23 minutes ago, DMC said:

I mean, I don't think it's a big deal as long as they walk it back, but it was a gaffe.  Obviously those are typical of Biden and part of his charm, but you don't wanna be making gaffes like that.

One does not, certainly, and particularly he.  But it does happen, particularly when carrying the massive number ofweighty matters he must deal with all the time all at the same time -- and being in another time zone, and having been moving and talking non-stop with leaders, military, refugees in several countries, non stop.

I'd like to see how any of us here would be talking right now in this situation.

But he gets taken to the woodshed for the slightest thing, when hundreds, who are deliberately lying and spreading disinformation, and even overtly, publicly cheerleading the the forces our nation is opposing -- like Tucker Carlson -- are not.  I'm so sick of this, from us and from the media, I can't even say.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From military historian, Bret Devereau's "Unmitigated Pedantry" blog:

"For this week, I wanted to expand a bit on a comment I made on Twitter expressing some frustration at the failure of journalists attempting to cover the war in Ukraine (and thus interpret military experts for a lay audience) to master some of the key military terminology being used and to convey its actual meaning to a general audience unfamiliar with them. So I thought I’d provide a primer of some terms I think folks might want to just generally have ‘in their pockets’ in understanding what is being said. ....

https://acoup.blog/2022/03/25/miscellanea-a-very-short-glossary-of-military-terminology/

[Gorn]

29 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yeah, I think the problem is that Biden is not making himself clear and his off-the-cuff speaking might play well to a domestic audience, but can be confusing or dangerous in an international context. Blinken is much better at riding the line of criticising Russia harshly whilst not getting into dangerous (and futile) rhetoric that can't really help.

The problem is that you can't treat Putin as if he is Saddam Hussein or Gaddafi, no matter how much you might want to. The country is too big, too powerful and too entrenched for that to work, especially with no realistic or viable chance of regime change taking place in the near or medium future.

I don't know if you missed it earlier, but the US Senate officially and unanimously declared Putin a war criminal.

In international diplomacy, that is a huge and irreversible move. You don't sit at a same desk (even a Megadesk) with a war criminal, you don't negotiate with him, or sign agreements with him, or pick up the phone when he calls.

My guess is that US intelligence has some secret information about Putin's health (something Marco Rubio hinted at in a tweet at the beginning of the war), and that they believe he won't be leading Russia for much longer one way or the other 

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, Zorral said:

But he gets taken to the woodshed for the slightest thing,

I agree he shouldn't be "taken to the woodshed" over this, but I'm also not seeing this from any mainstream outlets - just reporting what he said and reporting the White House's clarification/walk back.

[Werthead]

4 minutes ago, Gorn said:

I don't know if you missed it earlier, but the US Senate officially and unanimously declared Putin a war criminal.

In international diplomacy, that is a huge and irreversible move. You don't sit at a same desk (even a Megadesk) with a war criminal, you don't negotiate with him, or sign agreements with him, or pick up the phone when he calls.

My guess is that US intelligence has some secret information about Putin's health (something Marco Rubio hinted at in a tweet at the beginning of the war), and that they believe he won't be leading Russia for much longer one way or the other 

I believe the US Senate declaring that doesn't really have any international bearing (it's not like Putin is likely to ever fly to the US again for a meeting), whilst with leaders of countries that's a different thing. Russia I believe has threatened to cut diplomatic relations with the US altogether, which is physically dangerous if it means not using the deescalation line etc, getting into shooting incidents in Syria if not over Ukraine etc.

If we look at Macron and Scholz, they are criticising Putin's actions, but also talking to him directly on a regular basis to keep lines of communication open. Erdogan is criticising the war in more general terms, but using the personal relationship they established over their joint handling of Armenia-Azerbaijan (a conflict which Russia was on the losing side of, but Erdogan gave Putin a diplomatic face-saving out at the end of the conflict, which seemed to earn Putin's respect, however limited) to try to negotiate either an end to the conflict or at least ceasefires to allow humanitarian aid in and refugees out (with some success, possibly).

Any intelligence about Putin's health I would take with a grain of salt at this juncture.

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I believe the US Senate declaring that doesn't really have any international bearing

It doesn't.  Doesn't even have any practical domestic bearing, it's a resolution expressing the sense of the Senate encouraging the ICC/ICJ to pursue investigations into war crimes in Ukraine - which, ya know, they're already doing.  The more official/formal declaration from the US government came from Blinken on Wednesday.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Reports coming in from Slavutych, near Chernobyl, that Russian occupiers failed to quell a peaceful protest with tear gas and stun grenades, and when the entire town turned out against them, the Russian CO negotiated for his men to leave in return a nominal sweep of the town to confirm no Ukrainian military personnel were present. The Mayor, who'd been detained, was then released unharmed.

That commanding officer has doomed themselves  to a heart attack in the near future.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Doesn't even have any practical domestic bearing, it's a resolution expressing the sense of the Senate encouraging the ICC/ICJ to pursue investigations into war crimes in Ukraine - which, ya know, they're already doing. 

A bit of a tangent but what is the US/Senate's relationship towards the ICC these days?  I could see Biden being more open to the idea of the ICC but I'm surprised that the Senate suggests the ICC has juristiction over anything.  On the other hand, I suppose the original problem was more with the idea that the ICC could have juristiction over Americans.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Padraig said:

On the other hand, I suppose the original problem was more with the idea that the ICC could have juristiction over Americans.

Right.  If the resolution had anything to do with that literally every Republican would have voted against it.  And many Democrats.

[JGP]

By Twitter standards this thread might as well be a book, but still an interesting read. 

 

 

[SpaceChampion]

2 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

By Twitter standards this thread might as well be a book, but still an interesting read.

That photo of "the major architect of modern Russia" who helped picked Putin out of a crowd to be the new Tsar of Russia, fleeing to Istanbul, is really stunning.

[Corvinus85]

3 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

By Twitter standards this thread might as well be a book, but still an interesting read. 

 

 

So is he saying Russia may eventually break up due to its economy becoming and more crippled? Or at least some of the autonomous and semi-autonomous oblasts, the ones ethnic minorities are the majority may seek independence?

[Wilbur]

I am OK with Biden's comments.

First of all, it is so refreshing to hear a US President state the plain truth for once.  Putin is very likely a war criminal, and he does need to be removed from power for the sake of all humanity.

Second, why should the US continue to coddle and mealy-mouth Putin any longer?  For the last two decades Putin has periodically invaded other nations in series, and all we did was wag our finger and say, "Tut-tut, that was naughty."  And the end result was what we have here in Ukraine.

Let the Europeans play good cop, that is just fine.  They can negotiate and help Putin save face, or the Turks can rub his back and make him feel better - whatever.  As far as I am concerned, my tax dollars are well spent having Joe Biden channel the spiritual milieu of Harry Truman and Andrew Jackson at the Kremlin.

[Loge]

9 hours ago, Maithanet said:

If Kherson is recaptured by Ukraine, that would be big news.  An official saying it is going to happen... Much less of a big deal.  I expect the Russians have other ideas.

The Ukrainians have been advancing towards Kherson for some time. Looks like they have cleared the Mykolaiv area. Kherson will be next. And in the north, Chernihiv is no longer encircled. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

4 hours ago, Wilbur said:

I am OK with Biden's comments.

First of all, it is so refreshing to hear a US President state the plain truth for once.  Putin is very likely a war criminal, and he does need to be removed from power for the sake of all humanity.

Second, why should the US continue to coddle and mealy-mouth Putin any longer?  For the last two decades Putin has periodically invaded other nations in series, and all we did was wag our finger and say, "Tut-tut, that was naughty."  And the end result was what we have here in Ukraine.

Let the Europeans play good cop, that is just fine.  They can negotiate and help Putin save face, or the Turks can rub his back and make him feel better - whatever.  As far as I am concerned, my tax dollars are well spent having Joe Biden channel the spiritual milieu of Harry Truman and Andrew Jackson at the Kremlin.

Damn straight.

I have no problem with Joe calling for regime change for that criminal.

Clearly it got under his skin too.