Ukraine 10: Lviv free

[mormont]

3 minutes ago, Darryk said:

Imagine being punished by the West for being associated with Putin, then being punished by Putin for being associated with the West.

 

My sympathy for him knows no beginning.

[SpaceChampion]

11 minutes ago, Fez said:

Which is a bit confusing since there was a story a little while back that Putin had given Abramovich the go-ahead to organize the initial peace talks. Seems like a thing you'd want a trusted associate in charge of.

Probably just wanted him to come to place where he could be poisoned.  "Yes, no hard feelings, Roman, come organize the talks and we'll even provide you with some fine Russian chocolates to feast on!"
 

[Werthead]

The Ukrainians claim to have broken out of the Sumy front and retaken Trostyanets. That's interesting, as various experts have wondered if the Ukrainians were going to break out of Sumy and possibly try to link the Chernihiv and Sumy fronts.

It does sound like there's some confusion though, with the Ukrainians apparently advancing on several fronts but the Russians are pushing back towards Kyiv on a very narrow salient elsewhere.

[Zorral]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is the US hypocritical for defending Ukraine given US behavior during the Cuban Missile Crisis?

Yet Russia didn't suffer -- it was Cuba, and Cuba continues to suffer.    There is no way in hell Fidel didn't greet the USSR missile withdrawal with great satisfaction, but Cuba was the one punished.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

6 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Yet Russia didn't suffer -- it was Cuba, and Cuba continues to suffer.    There is no way in hell Fidel didn't greet the USSR missile withdrawal with great satisfaction, but Cuba was the one punished.

I agree with you the continued sanctions against Cuba are pointless and counterproductive.

[Zorral]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I agree with you the continued sanctions against Cuba are pointless and counterproductive.

Which might be something Ukrainians and her neighbors might be keeping well in mind these days, wondering if the US can be trusted all the way -- and knowing certainly that if the elections in the US go where they may well go, the US cannot be counted on to remain and ally.

 

[Werthead]

Some reports that Rudnyts'ke has been recaptured by Ukraine as well, a town 60km east of Kyiv on the main highway that's been resupplying the Russian push on eastern Kyiv. The Russians can still reinforce, but they need to go further north, much closer to Chernihiv where Ukrainian forces remain in control of the city and seem to have broken the siege there.

The Russians went a bit wild today and claimed more destroyed drones and aircraft than actually exist in the Ukrainian inventory, especially when combined with their existing losses.

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, Darryk said:

Imagine being punished by the West for being associated with Putin, then being punished by Putin for being associated with the West.

 

Considering that Abramovich is one of the people responsible for Putin's rise, and that his wealth comes from the grand robbery known as the "Russian privatisation", I won't shed any tears for him.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

16 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Some reports that Rudnyts'ke has been recaptured by Ukraine as well, a town 60km east of Kyiv on the main highway that's been resupplying the Russian push on eastern Kyiv. The Russians can still reinforce, but they need to go further north, much closer to Chernihiv where Ukrainian forces remain in control of the city and seem to have broken the siege there.

The Russians went a bit wild today and claimed more destroyed drones and aircraft than actually exist in the Ukrainian inventory, especially when combined with their existing losses.

They did that over the weekend too.  The Russians are desperate to be seen “winning” something.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has successfully repulsed a cyberattack - almost certainly Russian - on its biggest telecoms operator. It was apparently an effort to shut down the country's landline telephone network.

UK intelligence believes more than 1,000 Wagner Group mercenaries have been redeployed to eastern Ukraine, in some cases shutting down or suspending operations in Africa and Syria.

Some rare criticism of Ukraine from journalists, who have cited Ukrainian over-caution in allowing them to report from some conflict areas after the deaths of several journalists. Apparently this has been hampering first-hand accounts of the conflict.

Update on the negotiations: Russia has apparently agreed to allow Ukraine to join the European Union as long as it remains militarily non-aligned (possibly suspending the EU's collective security clause in the specific case of Ukraine). Russia has also dropped the clause for the country being "denazified", or at least is going to redefine it (as noted previously, Russia sometimes counts a country as being "denazified" if it moves from being an enemy to an ally, or at least a neutral). Demilitarisation has also been apparently shelved for now, even the cheesy idea floated a while back that Ukraine's military be restricted to the size it was in the first place.

Interestingly, Zelensky floated the idea this week of a package of language protections which would ensure that all neighbouring languages (so presumably Romanian, Belarusian, Polish, Hungarian and Russian, maybe Slovak) would all have "special protected" status in Ukrainian law. However, that's not part of this round of negotiations. These negotiations might be aimed more at establishing a ceasefire than a permanent peace though.

[Gorn]

Quote

Putin’s orders to use nukes could be disobeyed, says Bellingcat

Quote

 

“But he can’t use nuclear weapons by simply pressing the proverbial red button; there is such a button, but there also five more people down the command chain who all would need to repeat the order for a missile with a nuclear warhead to launch.”

“Our sources are certain that at least some of those five people would refuse to carry out the order (to use nuclear weapons).”

Grozev said Putin understands the situation and is “unlikely” to give an order that risks being disobeyed.

 

https://english.nv.ua/nation/putin-s-orders-to-use-nukes-could-be-disobeyed-says-bellingcat-50228948.html

[Martell Spy]

Mariupol mayor says Ukrainian city 'in the hands of the occupiers'

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/28/europe/mariupol-mayor-ukraine-occupiers-intl/index.html

Quote

 

(CNN)Mariupol in southeastern Ukraine has come largely under the control of Russian forces, its mayor said on Monday, after weeks of bombardment left the besieged city in pieces, killed an unknown number of civilians and forced hundreds of thousands of residents from their homes.

"Not everything is in our power," said Mayor Vadym Boichenko, in a live television interview. "Unfortunately, we are in the hands of the occupiers today."

 

 

[Clueless Northman]

2 hours ago, Gorn said:

https://english.nv.ua/nation/putin-s-orders-to-use-nukes-could-be-disobeyed-says-bellingcat-50228948.html

Oh it's not just disobeyed. Depending on how he plans to use them, he might be removed - even physically removed if he orders some kind of stupid first strike.

Meanwhile, Putin also made a lieutenant general out of that complete idiot and complete psycho Kadyrov. Considering the seeming death rate of Russian generals currently, I wouldn't accept, were I Kadyrov - sounds like a trap.

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

The Ukrainians claim to have broken out of the Sumy front and retaken Trostyanets. That's interesting, as various experts have wondered if the Ukrainians were going to break out of Sumy and possibly try to link the Chernihiv and Sumy fronts.

At this point, these sieges, advances, attacks and counter-attacks are kind of a race against time. Mariupol is nearly over, this frees up Russian troops who can go fight in other fronts, first of all the Donbas encirclement attempt. And if that one is over and the troops are defeated or surrended, this will free up a sizable Russian contingent. Better secure positions and ensure there are as few sieges as possible before it happens. Heck, better negotiaet a peace deal now rather than after the Ukrainian troops in Donbas fall - or Zelensky better hopes there's a clever plan to help them get out of there soon.

Still good news about negotiating positions, assuming they're sincere (seriously, at some point Zelensky should really admit that as a native Russian-speaker, he wouldn't mind bringing Russian back as some kind of locally official language, it's really silly that he has to act like Ukrainian is the only legit language in the country). I take it Russia is content to kill the bulk of Azov and to destroy the bulk of current Ukrainian hardware and doesn't need much binding rules. But that's really the only part that couldn't be achieved without war. Whatever the future peace, it'll leave a very bitter taste, so much suffering, death and now mutual hatred and lasting mistrust for a deal that might have been achieved peacefully. Disgusting shit that makes me nearly despair of mankind.

[Darryk]

3 hours ago, Gorn said:

Considering that Abramovich is one of the people responsible for Putin's rise, and that his wealth comes from the grand robbery known as the "Russian privatisation", I won't shed any tears for him.

I agree the oil should've been nationalised and used for the good of the Russian people but it's pretty ironic for people in the West to wag their finger at a Russian oil magnate while their own oil barons not only hoard wealth but start wars for oil as well. Also the privatisation happened under Boris Yeltsin who was buddy buddy with the US.

As for being responsible for Putin's rise, anyone who didn't cosy up to Putin got crushed, so it was a matter of survival. Again one can't judge someone operating in Russia by the same standards you would someone in the West. Maybe in the US the oil barons control the government, but in Russia Putin controls everyone.

[Makk]

37 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Mariupol is nearly over, this frees up Russian troops who can go fight in other fronts, first of all the Donbas encirclement attempt.

Not really, they can move certain units like artillery, but actually occupying what remains of the city is arguably the hardest part of the war for them. And I doubt Mariupol will be largely passive like Kherson.

[Makk]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

Some rare criticism of Ukraine from journalists, who have cited Ukrainian over-caution in allowing them to report from some conflict areas after the deaths of several journalists. Apparently this has been hampering first-hand accounts of the conflict.

Is this supposed to be not allowing them?

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, Darryk said:

As for being responsible for Putin's rise, anyone who didn't cosy up to Putin got crushed, so it was a matter of survival. Again one can't judge someone operating in Russia by the same standards you would someone in the West. Maybe in the US the oil barons control the government, but in Russia Putin controls everyone.

Abramovich was literally the first person who recommended Putin as a successor to Yeltsin.

[Darryk]

7 hours ago, Gorn said:

Abramovich was literally the first person who recommended Putin as a successor to Yeltsin.

That is true, but at the time no one really knew what sort of leader Putin would become.

Don't forget that the West loved Putin at the beginning too. There's footage of him singing for Hollywood celebs and them giving him a standing ovation.

[broken one]

51 minutes ago, Darryk said:

That is true, but at the time no one really knew what sort of leader Putin would become.

Some could have foreseen this, its KGB afterall. Especially Kremlin insiders and young wolves who became millionaires on theft of public good and survived the process.

Quote

Don't forget that the West loved Putin at the beginning too. There's footage of him singing for Hollywood celebs and them giving him a standing ovation.

I do not recall many people here loved him for even 0,5 sec., he began with blowing up some blocks with (Russian) people inside to find cause for war, pretty strong start. But then again, Poland and Baltic states are not exactly the West (the Western West).

[Loge]

The West didn't pay Russia much attention after 9/11. And Putin showed a friendlier attitude. I think his Munich speech was seen as a U-turn. Whether that perception was correct or not, the West definitely should have been more wary since then.