Ukraine 11: Russian lies, guns, and money

[Padraig]

On 3/31/2022 at 12:29 AM, Zorral said:

Also if people want to read a very negative view of what is really going on with Putin and his war in the east: "What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?"

We do keep in mind though, the author is a 'conservative' jerkwaddie.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/opinion/ukraine-war-putin.html

Weird article.  I don't see much in that article that deals with whether Putin miscalculated or not.  The author of the article seems to think that Putin must be an evil genius or an unstable loser.  When it seems much more likely that he is neither.  That he is just another autocratic leader, who makes blunders like the rest of them.  But he can still win this war because he happens to be in charge of a major military power.  It may not be the glorious victory he wanted but it can still be a win (sadly).

24 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Not digging this post truth era at all.

That's a slightly dangerous viewpoint though.  That is what people like Putin want you to think.  They want people to sit on the fence (or ignore certain things) because people aren't sure of the complete truth.  In most cases though, there is enough truth out there to make a very good judgement.  There certainly is about Russia.  (I'm not saying that you are sitting on the fence J.  This is just a general comment).

Sure.  We may not know about whether China launched a cyber attack against Ukraine.  Or whether Ukraine blew up a fuel depot in Russia.  But while interesting, not particularly important.  What Russia is doing every day in Ukraine is the important thing.

[JGP]

2 minutes ago, Padraig said:

(I'm not saying that you are sitting on the fence J.  This is just a general comment)

Nah, I gotcha Pod. And you're right. 

I'm just frustrated.

[SpaceChampion]

If Russia turns isolationist like North Korea, it'll likely be obsessed with revenge on Ukraine and the west.  Good thread:

Sounds like Donbass is *already* like North Korea, and the prototype for what Putin wants to do to the rest of Russia.

[SeanF]

7 hours ago, Padraig said:

Weird article.  I don't see much in that article that deals with whether Putin miscalculated or not.  The author of the article seems to think that Putin must be an evil genius or an unstable loser.  When it seems much more likely that he is neither.  That he is just another autocratic leader, who makes blunders like the rest of them.  But he can still win this war because he happens to be in charge of a major military power.  It may not be the glorious victory he wanted but it can still be a win (sadly).

That's a slightly dangerous viewpoint though.  That is what people like Putin want you to think.  They want people to sit on the fence (or ignore certain things) because people aren't sure of the complete truth.  In most cases though, there is enough truth out there to make a very good judgement.  There certainly is about Russia.  (I'm not saying that you are sitting on the fence J.  This is just a general comment).

Sure.  We may not know about whether China launched a cyber attack against Ukraine.  Or whether Ukraine blew up a fuel depot in Russia.  But while interesting, not particularly important.  What Russia is doing every day in Ukraine is the important thing.

IMHO, Putin believed his own bullshit, and the bullshit he was fed by his people.

I sometimes think the greatest advantage that a democracy has over a dictatorship is the ability to tell rulers things they don’t want to hear.  People in charge need to know bad news.

[Toth]

6 hours ago, SpaceChampion said:

Sounds like Donbass is *already* like North Korea, and the prototype for what Putin wants to do to the rest of Russia.

Yeah, I already myself thought that turning Russia into a giant North Korea is a scary prospect as Russia will have nothing to loose. And yet I fear the decision which path Russia takes is completely out of our hands. The propaganda machinery already shows that people have been much more successfully brainwashed as we feared they are and Russia ever so closer switches gear from an authoritarian dictatorship (where people are kept apolitical and apathetic and whose sole purpose is the dictator remaining in power) to a fascist dictatorship (where people are politically activated to follow in lockstep a common ideology of national rivalry and expansion).

When Joe Biden says that man can't remain in power, I'm saying he's completely right. If Putin tightens his grip and everything indicates that he does, then we'll have a very grim time in front of us. Putin's Russia can't stay within the community of nations if all it does is keep trying to destroy it, but a Russia outside of the community of nations has nothing better to prepare for than the next war. There are no good outcomes for a Russia that doesn't drastically change gears and since we are treated as the enemy no matter what we do, there is no political lever we can use to defuse the situation.

[DireWolfSpirit]

The Russian army must be the savage led by the imbecilic.

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-suffer-acute-radiation-083839177.html

Local reports suggest that seven buses with the zapped troops arrived in Gomel early Thursday. Journalists on the ground have also reported “ghost buses” of dead soldiers being transported from Belarus to Russia under the cover of dark.

The incompetence and disregard for safety exceeds even the far fetches of parody that people joked about but didn't seriously imagine could be possible, surely no-one would be stupid enough to go trenching in contaminated, radioactive soil right........right?

[broken one]

I was thinking what if the green revolution comes true one day. Lets imagine there is no war in Ukraine, it surrendered. Business as usual. That day we switch to clean energy sources (or rather some time after) Russia becomes useless for green economies. As it did not even try to transform its economy from being hydrocarbonic cow into anything else (It was just buying weapons), it has nothing to lose, all it can do is threatening world to enforce tributes, ransoms, subsidies, "international aid". North Korea!

Frankly speaking i dont believe NK of this size can function. The country would rather fall into pieces.

[SeanF]

Putin’s acting like he has the reserves of manpower available to the Tsars and Stalin, when his population is naturally decreasing.  The latter could count on high birthrates to make good their losses.  The Soviets took 1.2 m casualties, winning the fight for the Western bank of the Dneiper.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 hours ago, broken one said:

I was thinking what if the green revolution comes true one day. Lets imagine there is no war in Ukraine, it surrendered. Business as usual. That day we switch to clean energy sources (or rather some time after) Russia becomes useless for green economies. As it did not even try to transform its economy from being hydrocarbonic cow into anything else (It was just buying weapons), it has nothing to lose, all it can do is threatening world to enforce tributes, ransoms, subsidies, "international aid". North Korea!

Frankly speaking i dont believe NK of this size can function. The country would rather fall into pieces.

I’ve seen arguments that the Russian Federation is going to fragment as people in distant parts of the country figure out Moscow has gone insane.

[polishgenius]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’ve seen arguments that the Russian Federation is going to fragment as people in distant parts of the country figure out Moscow has gone insane.

 

It's less about 'realise' because they already know, as Moscow may lose its ability to impose its will on such a scale.

[Maithanet]

6 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

It's less about 'realise' because they already know, as Moscow may lose its ability to impose its will on such a scale.

I agree that is the important question, but I think Russia is a long way from losing that ability.  Russia is not falling apart internally.  Full stop.  Russia has better control over the press than ever before.  They have powerful enemies for the propagandists to blame and a state security system second only to China.  

If a breakaway republic attempts independence, they will be crushed and no one will help them.  In the unlikely event that Russia lacks the power to impose its will, they'll resort to WMDs.  The rest of the world will shake it's head and ignore it.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

 

It's less about 'realise' because they already know, as Moscow may lose its ability to impose its will on such a scale.

Which again, could be just as scary. The Russian government breaking up without a plan may pose more of a threat to global stability than what Putin is doing right now.

[Winterfell is Burning]

5 hours ago, broken one said:

I was thinking what if the green revolution comes true one day. Lets imagine there is no war in Ukraine, it surrendered. Business as usual. That day we switch to clean energy sources (or rather some time after) Russia becomes useless for green economies. As it did not even try to transform its economy from being hydrocarbonic cow into anything else (It was just buying weapons), it has nothing to lose, all it can do is threatening world to enforce tributes, ransoms, subsidies, "international aid". North Korea!

Frankly speaking i dont believe NK of this size can function. The country would rather fall into pieces.

Also keep in mind Putin has no obvious successor like the Kims.

[Loge]

19 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

Also keep in mind Putin has no obvious successor like the Kims.

Do the Kims really have an obvious succession plan? IIRC, the current one offed his uncle and his half-brother. Doesn't sound like they have a clear-cut line of succession like, say, the British royals.

As for Russia falling apart, it happened before. The Russian empire fell apart at the end of WWI. It was soon recreated in form of the Soviet Union, but that fell apart again in the early 1990s. Why shouldn't there be more secessions, e.g. in central Asia or the Caucasus region? If Russia's economy tanks and the infrastructure crumbles, we might see separatism on the rise again. And let's not forget, Putin only managed to crush the rebellion in Chechnya by co-opting the Kadyrov clan and turning the country into a fiefdom.

[Corvinus85]

The danger of Russia breaking apart is that it likely will be a bloody affair and you may have multiple actors with access to nuclear weapons. This would likely draw in other countries, even if only at proxy level initially. And there is the risk of someone worse than Putin either taking over or at least carving out a state somewhere in Russia and have a nuclear arsenal at command.

[Varysblackfyre321]

16 hours ago, Padraig said:

That's a slightly dangerous viewpoint though.  That is what people like Putin want you to think.  They want people to sit on the fence (or ignore certain things) because people aren't sure of the complete truth.  In most cases though, there is enough truth out there to make a very good judgement.  There certainly is about Russia.  (I'm not saying that you are sitting on the fence J.  This is just a general comment).

Sure.  We may not know about whether China launched a cyber attack against Ukraine.  Or whether Ukraine blew up a fuel depot in Russia.  But while interesting, not particularly important.  What Russia is doing every day in Ukraine is the important thing.

You’re right on the money. The alt-right loves to bring up the bombing of Dresden as if it’s comparable to the genocides the Nazis committed. . It looks bad to defend the violence that came with the Nazi regime directly and It’s easier to attack their opponents and get people to equivocate the two or shame others into silence  for their “hypocrisy” 

9 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

The danger of Russia breaking apart is that it likely will be a bloody affair and you may have multiple actors with access to nuclear weapons. This would likely draw in other countries, even if only at proxy level initially. And there is the risk of someone worse than Putin either taking over or at least carving out a state somewhere in Russia and have a nuclear arsenal at command.

I think this this was the fear even from the US when the Soviet Union fell.

[Loge]

Nuclear weapons aren't easy to use and they are expensive to maintain. There are reasons why those former soviet republics gave up theirs. The likes of Chechnya aren't going to become nuclear powers any soon.

[DMC]

57 minutes ago, Loge said:

Do the Kims really have an obvious succession plan?

The last few years he clearly appears to be grooming his sister Yo-jong as his successor.

[Varysblackfyre321]

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

The last few years he clearly appears to be grooming his sister Yo-jong as his successor.

But he has kids from what I gather? Wouldn’t this insure the possibility of her killing or exiling them should un die before his offspring is grown?

[Liffguard]

17 hours ago, Padraig said:

But he can still win this war because he happens to be in charge of a major military power.  It may not be the glorious victory he wanted but it can still be a win (sadly).

I think that depends on what you mean by "win." Is it still possible for Russia to defeat Ukraine's military and occupy the country? Yes, I think that is still possible. But is it possible for Russia to achieve any strategic aims that are worth the expenditure of blood, equipment, money, and reputation? No, I don't think so. I think we're past the point where anyting that Russia might gain from this war is worth what they've spent on it.