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Ukraine 11: Russian lies, guns, and money


Ser Scot A Ellison
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I think part of the problem is that Victor Orban is a close ally of Putin (even if he currently tries to hide that a bit, for self-preservation reasons), and since he controls (directly or indirectly) most Hungarian-language media, most Hungarians are therefore far less pro-Ukraine than most of the West. 

Here in Transylvania the Romanians are strongly pro-Ukraine, whereas the Hungarian minority is much more likely to claim that things are more complicated, with both sides having done bad things. A poster (can't remember his name right now) a thread or two ago from Satu Mare (northwestern Transylvania), who is an ethnic Hungarian, encapsulated that sentiment perfectly.

This is in no way intended negatively towards @RhaenysBee, whose qualms about humans killing other humans I understand, but I do think it is not a coincidence that Hungarians as a whole (whether they like Orban or not) are far more reticent in their support of Ukraine. The media we consume does obviously shape our views. 

I wonder if the recent discovery of the mass grave in Bucha, for example, is reported in Hungarian-language media (and if so, how)?

 

ETA: This post is in addition to the post of @VarysBlackfyre from about an hour ago, responding to @Rippounet

Edited by Ser Reptitious
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4 hours ago, Ser Reptitious said:

I think part of the problem is that Victor Orban is a close ally of Putin (even if he currently tries to hide that a bit, for self-preservation reasons), and since he controls (directly or indirectly) most Hungarian-language media, most Hungarians are therefore far less pro-Ukraine than most of the West. 

Here in Transylvania the Romanians are strongly pro-Ukraine, whereas the Hungarian minority is much more likely to claim that things are more complicated, with both sides having done bad things. A poster (can't remember his name right now) a thread or two ago from Satu Mare (northwestern Transylvania), who is an ethnic Hungarian, encapsulated that sentiment perfectly.

This is in no way intended negatively towards @RhaenysBee, whose qualms about humans killing other humans I understand, but I do think it is not a coincidence that Hungarians as a whole (whether they like Orban or not) are far more reticent in their support of Ukraine. The media we consume does obviously shape our views. 

I wonder if the recent discovery of the mass grave in Bucha, for example, is reported in Hungarian-language media (and if so, how)?

 

ETA: This post is in addition to the post of @VarysBlackfyre from about an hour ago, responding to @Rippounet

From what I read, seems that after years of being shamelessly pro-Putin,  Orban can't pivot to a "Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia" message because it wouldn't fly, particularly that close to an election. And of course, I'm sure Putin has the receipts it Orban tries to move too far. But if he doesn't, he risks complete isolation from Europe, and it's not like Russia will see him as a priority right now.

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8 hours ago, Ser Reptitious said:

I think part of the problem is that Victor Orban is a close ally of Putin (even if he currently tries to hide that a bit, for self-preservation reasons), and since he controls (directly or indirectly) most Hungarian-language media, most Hungarians are therefore far less pro-Ukraine than most of the West. 

Here in Transylvania the Romanians are strongly pro-Ukraine, whereas the Hungarian minority is much more likely to claim that things are more complicated, with both sides having done bad things. A poster (can't remember his name right now) a thread or two ago from Satu Mare (northwestern Transylvania), who is an ethnic Hungarian, encapsulated that sentiment perfectly.

This is in no way intended negatively towards @RhaenysBee, whose qualms about humans killing other humans I understand, but I do think it is not a coincidence that Hungarians as a whole (whether they like Orban or not) are far more reticent in their support of Ukraine. The media we consume does obviously shape our views. 

I wonder if the recent discovery of the mass grave in Bucha, for example, is reported in Hungarian-language media (and if so, how)?

 

ETA: This post is in addition to the post of @VarysBlackfyre from about an hour ago, responding to @Rippounet

I will respond to this after work… probably in a next thread by then. Can I quote between threads? We will see. 

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In Poland, pro Ukrainian sentiment is overwhelming (despiete historic differences we had and not counting a few complete dickheads) and both main political forces accuse each other of being deliberately or unconsciously pro Russian, which is a biggest possible insult. Morons currently in power really have no clue what to do with Orban and his allegiance. They still try to argue Germans are even less pro Ukrainian than him (not wanting to send weapons to Ukraine and cut Russian gas imports and all that), but there's really no heart in it. 

Btw., it was really a bummer to hear the results of Hungarian general election.

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4 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

Morons currently in power really have no clue what to do with Orban and his allegiance. They still try to argue Germans are even less pro Ukrainian than him (not wanting to send weapons to Ukraine and cut Russian gas imports and all that), but there's really no heart in it.

The morons are mentally addicted to the "old rhymes" and their own narration from recent years.

15 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

 the results of Hungarian general election.

"They are immune to nazism, good! They will be allowed to join our federation voluntarily." :commie:

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Some basic facts the western media likes to ignore. 

Viktor Orban explicitly said that Hungary supports the sovereignty of Ukraine, condemn the military aggression of Russia and stands as one with the EU and the NATO hours after the invasion began. Word for word. (Well, I translated it.) The statement was repeated a couple times. He also explicitly said that Hungary welcomes all Ukrainians arriving and provides them with whatever they need to either stay in Hungary or travel on, whichever they decide. 

Hungary agreed to every sanction against Russia save for military aid and cutting off energy supply.

Hungary’s not the only eu country that refused to proved military aid or cut off Russian energy. 

Hungary provided hundreds of millions worth of humanitarian aid to Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees. Food, clothing, hygiene products, childcare products.

After Ukraine announced they were running low on hospital supplies, Hungary sent a 600 million worth package of medical aid consisting of hospital and medical equipment. 

Hungarian charity organizations received so much donations and so many volunteers they were unable to organize the logistics for the first three weeks of the war. Hungarians were at the border and at train stations welcoming Ukrainians with Ukrainian speaking volunteers, first aid stations, info stations, donation package stations. They were turning down volunteers and sending them home during the Hungarian national holiday in March because there were too many of them.

The Hungarian media is not the Russian. Every single war crime and atrocity committed by Russia is in news apps, as well as in national television news (I explicitly checked this before I posted, because I don’t consume local television at all, national or otherwise. But I did check, and the massacre of Bucha was in the news, shown in the news and addressed as a massacre). The mass killings, the civilian casualties, the war crimes, the rapes, all of it.

Other facts that are often in the limelight and never ignored are also facts and I do recognize them as facts. The Aim of this was to bring your attention to facts that aren’t necessarily in the limelight, because it’s part of the whole picture. Make whatever you want of them. 

 

Edited by RhaenysBee
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26 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

Hungary agreed to every sanction against Russia save for military aid and cutting off energy supply.

These are basically the two most important ones though. Poland is still more than 50% dependant on Russian oil and yet decided to stop imports from Russia by the end of 2022, even if EU doesn't make such decision. It will cost us, as the spread between Russian oil and Brent is currently at record high (Russian oil is basically cheaper by one third).

 

26 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

Hungary’s not the only eu country that refused to proved military aid or cut off Russian energy. 

This is true, but Hungary is also seemingly the most vocal about it, including Orban mocking Zelensky for his "lack of experience" due to his background as an actor. Not sure it was faithfully adressed by international media, but it certainly sounded awful.

Congratulations letter Orban received from Putin after winning the election also didn't look too great.

Edited by 3CityApache
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I think Putin probably had some kind of grand vision of Hungary seceding from NATO and the EU and becoming a Russian ally in the heart of Europe, Serbia as well, and maybe encouraging Poland to bail from the EU (although likely being aware it would never secede from NATO). Which I think just goes to show Putin's lack of understanding of even nearby countries that used to be part of the Soviet sphere of influence, let alone further afield. Hungary is not my area of expertise but I get the impression Orban's primary area of interest is Orban, and he will do whatever it takes to maintain his power and legitimacy. I also get the distinct impression he is not interested in becoming Lukashenko the Second and will retain positive ties with Putin up to a point but not beyond that, to becoming a vassal.

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20 hours ago, Loge said:

I'm not an expert and therefore can't give you references but from what I have heard it definitely is legal to kill the next ten people. it only becomes a war crime if you kill eleven.

Not in this day and age.

You can lawfully try civilians who attack you, without wearing distinguishing markings, before a court martial.  If found guilty, then you can executed them.  But, you can't randomly kill ten civilians.

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14 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

This is true, but it is also seemingly the most vocal about it, including Orban mocking Zelensky for his "lack of experience" due to his background as an actor. Not sure it was faithfully adressed by international media, but it certainly sounded awful.

It certainly 100% did. I cringe at it everyday. Absolutely embarrassing for Hungary and Hungarians. 

14 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

Congratulations letter Orban received from Putin after winning the election also didn't look too great.

tell me about it. 
 

@Werthead expert or not, the assessment sounds correct, I see it the same way. 

Edited by RhaenysBee
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Some indications that the 4th Guards Tank Division's 13th Regiment is now in operation in the Izium region, having been redeployed there from heavy combat operations around Sumy, where reportedly its former CO killed himself upon discovering how bad a condition their tanks were in. It's unclear if it was reconstituted with fresh forces or driven straight from one warzone to another without resupply (barring fuel you assume), which would be extremely weird. The 13th has fairly distinct equipment markings, which makes them easier to spot (and they lost several T-80s in the battle for Sumy, eliminating a fairly large chunk of their offensive power).

Izium reportedly fell a week ago to Russian forces, but Ukrainian counter-attacks have kept them bottled up there and the Russians have made only minor advances to the south of the city.

About 260 Ukrainian marines have apparently surrendered in Mariupol. It's unclear how many Ukrainian defenders remain active in the city, but video footage this morning apparently shows a Russian unit being forced to retreat in heavy urban combat. Mariupol could fall this afternoon or continue to hold out for some time to come (as has been the case for a month).

Some intelligence now believes that Russia will make a ceasefire offer in the next couple of weeks, maybe even days. They will do this to reconstitute their forces for a big push into the Donbas, but some believe that they also want to surge along the coast to take Odesa in a last-ditch effort to take the city and link up to Transnistria. However, the Russians are aware of how heavily defended Odesa is and the imminent arrival of longer-ranged antiship missiles may make an amphibious operation impossible. There also seems agreement that Russia would be ill-advised to continue operations in two theatres simultaneously and if it tries, it may end up losing both (Ukrainian counter-attacks in the Kherson region are continuing, but they seem to lack the power for a full offensive, and Mykolaiv is now under renewed long-range attack). The argument seems to be strong that Ukraine should not accept a ceasefire without a return to, at a minimum, February 23 lines.

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14 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

But there was no real ethical concern raised.You(as a communist)

There were, but I will not repeat them, as I believe that it's pointless to debate this, and perhaps even insensitive.

As I said, I'm reassured that anyone did have some concerns. That's it, really.

14 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

You(as a communist)

I'm pretty sure I've always claimed to be a socialist on this board (democratic socialist), though I did explain at some point that my grandparents were communists.

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22 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

A State News organization in Russia publising an Op-ed that is expressly endorsing the mechanisms of genocide:

 

 

 

https://ccl.org.ua/en/news/ria-novosti-has-clarified-russias-plans-vis-a-vis-ukraine-and-the-rest-of-the-free-world-in-a-program-like-article-what-russia-should-do-with-ukraine-2/

Edited by Which Tyler
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Russian media disseminating Mein Kampf fanfic is really quite ridiculous. It achieves the opposite of what they want: rather than a terrified populace cowed into surrender, it creates defiance and anger. Because of the atrocities and the threats of more, Ukraine's position is much-hardened and it is likely to settle for much less than it would have done before the war, or even in a more restrained conflict without targeting civilians.

The ability of Russia to even achieve the things it is talking about across the whole country is profoundly limited. It's combat power in Ukraine is dangerously close to being exhausted, it cannot call up a lot more without effectively admitting a profound political defeat, it cannot escalate without endangering a much more robust intervention by other states (with a risk of an outright war with NATO, which it cannot win, or even a nuclear conflict, which it cannot win), and even its closest ally and vassal state Belarus seems unwilling to put boots on the ground to actually help it (some of the thinking seems to be that Lukashenko is instead positioning his forces to dissuade Poland from intervening unilaterally, which basically means putting units near the Belarus-Ukraine-Poland border and then doing nothing). And if Russia thinks NATO will do nothing to defend a NATO member that comes under similar threats and attacks, it will be profoundly disappointed.

In addition - and under-reported today - China seems to have responded to the Bucha Massacre with a much more robust call for peace talks and an end to the conflict then we have seen previously, whilst reaffirming Ukraine's territorial integrity.

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