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NBA next- The Lebron-less playoffs?


DireWolfSpirit

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1 minute ago, BigFatCoward said:

Anybody not think GSW are favourites to come out of the west? 

Not sure there should be one. We don't know when Booker will be back and I wouldn't sleep on Luka carrying the Mavs. I'm not even sure they're clear favs if Memphis puts Minny away.

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14 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Also, anybody aware of any empiric research about whether winning in 4 is actually beneficial? What you gain in rest you lose in game readiness type thing. 

I don't know what the numbers are, but in the Celtics' case I am glad they get extra time off. Jaylen Brown looked like he was having hamstring issues in game 4 and Robert Williams is just coming back from a knee injury, so extra healing time seems more beneficial to them than staying hot.

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31 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Anybody not think GSW are favourites to come out of the west? 

Also, anybody aware of any empiric research about whether winning in 4 is actually beneficial? What you gain in rest you lose in game readiness type thing. 

I think it'll be the Suns as long as Booker is healthy.

 

There are probably sportswriters who go into that, but I wouldn't call it research and its difficult to quantify. I don't think there are consistent results that form a trend, even before accounting for seeding and injuries which will muddy the picture. Do we go with GSW going 16-1 as evidence as rest is good, or do we discard the entire sample due to how stacked they are?

Or even if we go with the premise that resting loses you game one, how far do we take it? Can we not also say that it helps you win game seven?

I think the only way that theory gets proven is if higher seeds who sweep their previous opponent frequently gets beaten by an opponent that just won in seven. Its pretty inconclusive otherwise.

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Middleton out for the second round.  That is going to make the Bucks a lot more vulnerable vs the Celtics.  Without a scoring threat beside Giannis, this Bucks team is looking very similar to the 2019 and 2020 squads that underachieved. 

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No matter how this postseason ends, this has been one wild season. The two preseason Vegas favorites, the Lakers and Nets, both were miserable failures. Major injuries affected more teams than any season I can remember. I had no idea who the true favorites were back in January, and I still don't now. 

Over and over, my longterm decision to stop gambling is paying off this year more than any. If I had taken every bet I had a feeling on this season, I would be massively, massively down. 

Agreed with DireWolfSpirit. The Finals victors will be the healthiest team, not necessarily the 'best' one.

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At this point I would be pretty surprised if the champion were any team outside of Boston, Phoenix and GSW.  I would include the Bucks as well, but with Middleton out for the Boston series I really don't think they have much chance.  None of the other Western contenders look to have a real shot, and in the East...I guess Miami wouldn't be too crazy but I don't see them beating Boston and then GSW/PHO back to back. 

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

At this point I would be pretty surprised if the champion were any team outside of Boston, Phoenix and GSW. 

It does seem like one of those, but...I find it hard to discount this Miami team. Very, very gritty team.

Again, its all health dependent of course. Memphis has not convinced in round 1 but on the other hand...would we be shocked to see them suddenly be awesome against Golden State? I wouldnt.

And I do think Phoenix could have a tough series at hand against Dallas.

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15 hours ago, Calibandar said:

It does seem like one of those, but...I find it hard to discount this Miami team. Very, very gritty team.

Again, its all health dependent of course. Memphis has not convinced in round 1 but on the other hand...would we be shocked to see them suddenly be awesome against Golden State? I wouldnt.

And I do think Phoenix could have a tough series at hand against Dallas.

Any of the three teams I listed could come out flat or have an injury and go out in the second round.  But to win a championship you have to win 4 series in a row, and those are the only three that look like they have the potential.  I agree that Miami would be the next most likely, but I don't feel like they have quite the talent to run the table.  Winning the East is possible, but I don't see them doing well against either GSW or PHO. 

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Any of the three teams I listed could come out flat or have an injury and go out in the second round.  But to win a championship you have to win 4 series in a row, and those are the only three that look like they have the potential.  I agree that Miami would be the next most likely, but I don't feel like they have quite the talent to run the table.  Winning the East is possible, but I don't see them doing well against either GSW or PHO. 

Idk about that. This Heat team is a good deal better than the one that made the Finals two years ago, and that team was able to take the Lakers to six while Bam and Dragic were injured. Right now I’d favor Boston to come out of the East, but I do think the Heat can take the Suns or Warriors if either isn’t at 100%.

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13 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Yeah ditto on that perfect from the field CP3 performance.

What a special player he (still) is.

Extra special at hitting dudes in the nuts too. He did it again this week. CP3 might be the dirtiest PG in league history.

12 minutes ago, WarGalley said:

Damn what a shame.

 

Google tells me he's had an orbital fracture before (in 2018). Anyone know how much time he missed then?

 

Two weeks. Philly is fucked.

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Can't say the refs fucked us over this time. Just terrible late game hero ball with no passing. Blows my mind how many times guys just bring it up the court and call their own number. Also, another huge problem all series that was obvious this game is the Wolves don't crash the glass on offense while the Grizz are constantly hunting offensive rebounds. Hats off to them. I don't think they were the better team for 75% of the quarters, but when it mattered they found a way. Not sure they have any chance against the Warriors, but hopefully we get another fun, long series. 

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Yeah had deja vu again in that game. the KAT 3 was entirely unnecessary and did not like the Beverly one either though it was a little more understandable. I basically would have let only Edwards or McDaniel shoot from 3 in the last 2 minutes.

Grizzlies definitely have a chance against the Warriors. I think the Dubs lost twice to them in the regular season but they are playing much better basketball now with rest, health and momentum. I’m going to try and go to a game before the series is over.

I did not recognize Latrell Sprewell at all.

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6 minutes ago, WarGalley said:

Yeah had deja vu again in that game. the KAT 3 was entirely unnecessary and did not like the Beverly one either though it was a little more understandable. I basically would have let only Edwards or McDaniel shoot from 3 in the last 2 minutes.

The name you didn't mention was Russell. He was horrible for most of the playoffs. Never wanted him and I hope they can find a trade partner, though I doubt it. Thank god he only has one year left on his deal. KAT did a lot of dumb things in the series, but he was also great at times. He didn't deserve all the shit he caught when Russ is also a max contract dude who did next to nothing.

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Grizzlies definitely have a chance against the Warriors. I think the Dubs lost twice to them in the regular season but they are playing much better basketball now with rest, health and momentum. I’m going to try and go to a game before the series is over.

Everyone has a chance, that's how the Wolves took the Grizz to six (which is what I said would happen btw :P) and should have beaten them in five. But no, I don't think the Grizz have much of a chance. The Warriors are rolling and are the best team in the West, and unlike the Wolves, they have the players to put the clamps on the Grizz. They have so many guys they can throw at Ja and Bane, meanwhile on the other side they're going to hunt the living shit out of Ja, and in that series I doubt he gets the same friendly treatment from the refs. If the Warriors are close to 100% they'll win it in five.

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