Ukraine 12: When is this an existential threat?

[Ran]

Yes. Sweden has long held the position of being nonaligned, but then again it has built strong ties to NATO and there's a high degree of interoperability of Swedish military equipment with NATO equipment. But it has been a sort of unofficial belief that if Sweden or Finland applied to join NATO, the other country would almost certainly do so as well. I think the interest in joining NATO is higher in Finland (who also have strong ties to NATO, and high interoperability), but yeah, both are over 50%. Last Finnish poll I saw was like 60% in favor.

The Social Democrats, who lead the minority government, had been holding the line on not joining... but have announced that they're opening up a debate on the subject within the party, and made a statement that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has forced them to reassess its foreign and military policy.

Obviously, this is not what Putin expected to happen, I'm pretty sure. He thought it'd be a repeat of the annexation of Crimea and the Donbas war, with Europe not caring very much. He seriously miscalculated.

[Zorral]

Clearly the Big P got spoiled and complacent after the Obama years and the so called administration of he that was once called by some POTUS.  Biden's attitude for decades about Russia has been very different, and far more well-informed as to the character and personality of P, including different from Obama, for whom Russian and P didn't matter and didn't interest him -- even less, one thinks than South America interested him and about which he knew nothing.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

We've sent / are sending 50 personnel (population equivalent to ~3000 US troops) to the region to help with the logistics of getting arms into Ukraine. I guess as a reward we've been invited to a NATO meeting and our foreign minister will be attending.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

49 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

We've sent / are sending 50 personnel (population equivalent to ~3000 US troops) to the region to help with the logistics of getting arms into Ukraine. I guess as a reward we've been invited to a NATO meeting and our foreign minister will be attending.

Austria?

[The Anti-Targ]

45 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Austria?

Not last time I looked.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 minute ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Not last time I looked.

I’m embarrassed to say I don’t remember where your from.    My excuse is that I’m old and drinking a glass of wine.  

[Kalbear]

No one can tell Austria and new Zealand apart anyway

[Larry of the Lawn]

They both have vampires, right?

[Winterfell is Burning]

9 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

No one can tell Austria and new Zealand apart anyway

Sure we can- Austria is the one with the Oktoberfest and who loves David Hasselhoff, and New Zealand is the birthplace of Crocodile Dundee!

[Kalbear]

14 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

Sure we can- Austria is the one with the Oktoberfest and who loves David Hasselhoff, and New Zealand is the birthplace of Crocodile Dundee!

Tbf Austria sounds like it should be the actual place that invented Pavlovas

[AndrewJ]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m embarrassed to say I don’t remember where your from.    My excuse is that I’m old and drinking a glass of wine.  

Hint: Look where it says "Location" beneath his name.

He's from South-East Australia.

[Larry of the Lawn]

1 minute ago, AndrewJ said:

Hint: Look where it says "Location" beneath his name.

He's from South-East Australia.

Austria

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

27 minutes ago, AndrewJ said:

Hint: Look where it says "Location" beneath his name.

He's from South-East Australia.

I’m on my phone.  I can’t see that.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

4 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

No one can tell Austria and new Zealand apart anyway

New Zealand has the red stars on its flag.

Red stars? Wait a minute... comrade @The Anti-Targ anything you need to tell us about the secret treaties between your nation and Russia? Sherlock Tinfoil is on to you.

[The Anti-Targ]

20 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

New Zealand has the red stars on its flag.

Red stars? Wait a minute... comrade @The Anti-Targ anything you need to tell us about the secret treaties between your nation and Russia? Sherlock Tinfoil is on to you.

The red stars was just the start, but the communist was found out and heroically expelled by the noble champion of freedom who gave us car-less days, think big, and a wage and price freeze.

https://nzhistory.govt.nz/media/video/dancing-cossacks

[Makk]

I seem to remember Jacinda and Winston had a bit of a thing for Putin. Then he poisoned someone (Navalny).

On a different note Putin has jailed 150 FSB officers including the previous head Sergei Beseda. I wonder how many, if any, were actually leaking.

 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

7 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

No one can tell Austria and new Zealand apart anyway

Oh, look. The Von Trapp family is taking a Middle Earth tour. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

Famously, Winston Churchill defined Russia as "a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma,"

Putins war has rebranded Russia as "a ______, wrapped in a ________, inside an_________."

Fill in your own blanks.

[Werthead]

Reports that train tracks in the Shebekinsy district near Belgorod have been heavily damaged. Unclear if local sympathisers or Ukrainian special forces were responsible.

Russia has made a minimal new contribution to the peace talks, suggesting that Belarus could stand as a guarantor for Ukraine's security guarantees (possibly alongside Israel, Turkey or western countries).

Some reports of friction inside Russian military units. Tuvan and Krasnoyarsk soldiers from Siberia apparently got into some arguments with Tuvan soldiers wanting to mistreat Ukrainian civilians near Chernihiv and the Krasnoyarsk ones wanting to adhere more to the rules of law, permitting civilians to return home for changes of clothes and to continue daily activities. The Ukrainians noted they were still locked in cellars at night and effectively held hostage (a man and his daughter were shot whilst apparently trying to escape), but the Russians seemed divided on how brutal to be with them. There are also stories of a Russian soldier trying to stop a superior from shooting civilians and being shot himself, and being taken to hospital by the Ukrainians he tried to protect. It should be noted that such stories are, of course, massively outclassed by the scale of civilian casualties.

Western intelligence officials believe that Russia has a window of 2-3 weeks to complete the conquest of Donbas and if Ukraine outlasts them, Russia may engage in more substantive talks at that stage.

Russian units seem to have punched through to the coast in Mariupol, dividing the city in two pockets, one inland and a larger one extending from the port to a large steelworks. Reinforcement flights seem to be encounter much more difficulty in keeping troops resupplied. Mariupol might fall imminently or could hold out for some days.

Mixed signals over the use of chemical weapons in Mariupol. Russia has certainly used phosphorus on several occasions already, but those claims have been downplayed. Ukraine itself is downplaying this possible use of chemical weapons. More than a few people noting that Russia using chemical weapons now, when Mariupol is on the brink of collapse, would be redundant. However, the large steelworks is apparently a very tough nut to crack and Russia might be seriously frustrated at the city holding out for weeks and weeks past their worst-case projections. Also, the steelworks has heavy amounts of chemicals present in storage; accidental release (or inadvertent release from military activity is possible).

Ukraine has destroyed a large Russian ammo depot in Novoaydar, which was part of the resupply effort for the Donbas offensive.

[Toth]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

There are also stories of a Russian soldier trying to stop a superior from shooting civilians and being shot himself, and being taken to hospital by the Ukrainians he tried to protect. It should be noted that such stories are, of course, massively outclassed by the scale of civilian casualties.

Now that is strange. Is that the story with the mother and daughter? That was back in the very first week of the conflict.