Ukraine 13: Pavlov's Bellum

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

When they start rounding up horses, we’ll know they’re prepping for a cavalry charge

Maybe the Russian tank factory can pivot to making chariots?

[Tongue Stuck to Wall]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’ll feel bad for the horses.

I'm assuming the fastest would be sold to oligarchs and the rest eaten.

[DireWolfSpirit]

The most damaging thing the U.S. did to Russia in this conflict was "offer that ride out of town" to Zelensky.

The man has inspired the World with his leadership of a resistance that's been like a pitbull backed into a corner.

I don't think anyone will ever underestimate the Ukrainians resolve and courage ever again.

Damn you Putin, damn you straight to a hole in the ground where you belong.

[A wilding]

2 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

When they start rounding up horses, we’ll know they’re prepping for a cavalry charge

I was going to point out that, historically, the Cossacks were a pretty effective military force. But then I realised that they probably count as having been Ukrainian rather than Russian ...

[Padraig]

9 hours ago, Loge said:

Regime change. That invasion force wasn't large enough to conquer and hold a country with a population of 40 million. See the  US in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Its hard to know how delusional Russia was.  It may have expected much less resistance in the Russian speaking South and East.  But still, I do agree that it seems unlikely that it expected to conquer the whole of the country.  Still, even seizing half Ukraine is a shocking example of "might means right".

PS: Not that I ever knew a lot about Iran-Iraq war but I wasn't aware of the Khuzestan aspect.  Interesting.  While Ogaden completely escaped me.  Anyhow, it says something that we have to go back to the 70s and 80s for these examples and that they were generally unsuccessful.  (PPS. I was aware of the Sino-Vietnamese war though but I didn't think that was a war of attempted conquest.).

[Varysblackfyre321]

5 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

The most damaging thing the U.S. did to Russia in this conflict was "offer that ride out of town" to Zelensky.

And give zelenksy the chance to show his conviction.

If he survives this war I think it’s likely he’ll be able to easily win re-election in the foreseeable future and basically be a king maker when he’s not on the ballot

[Loge]

11 hours ago, Werthead said:

They would. Two US vets fighting for the Ukrainian Foreign Legion were discussing this in an interview and they agreed that the tactics the USA used in Fallujah (using Abrams as mobile strongpoints advancing carefully through the city, supported by infantry) would never fly in Ukraine, the tanks would be taken out too easily. They're more survivable - the Russian T-series (the 72, 80 and 90 are effectively developments of the same chassis) all tend to put extra fuel and ammo around the cupola, which is usually the first thing to be penetrated by an AT round, making a total vehicle loss far more likely - but likely not hugely so.

Still, Russia has succeeded in using tanks offensively in the conflict (if at a very high rate of loss), so Ukrainians could use tanks as a spearhead for their own counteroffensives. The problem is that training Ukrainian personnel to use those kind of tanks well enough in an integrated fashion would take months and months.

ETA: It sounds like production has now halted at all of Russia's tank factories due to lack of imported components. They only produce 200 tanks a year anyway - that's a third of Russia's verified tank losses in the last two months alone - but now they'll be producing zero. That will also exacerbate problems with reactivating tanks from long-term storage.

Cities have never been favourable terrain for tanks. But these are Ukrainian cities. The Russians are in hostile territory. I doubt they could offer the same kind of resistance they face from the Ukrainians. The manpower just isn't there. Not sure about their anti-tank capabilities either. But even if they have got the right gear, they lack infantry. And the support of the population.

In other news, Russia has lost another general, Vladimir Frolov.

The fate of the Moskva's crew is still unknown. Apparently there's a short video showing the commander of the Russian navy with some servicemen in Sevastopol, but that's hardly proof that the whole crew has been rescued. It has to be assumed that most of them are dead. The Russian propaganda's spin on the incident is also a bit weird: This absolutely was an accident. And we'll make Ukraine pay for it.   

[DireWolfSpirit]

I feel like I'm watching a bull (Russia) in the ring and Ukraine is the Matador, when I hear Russian comments like "and we'll make them pay for it."

Just as likely they may have the spear plunged in their back as they blindly charge the red cape.

Use their rage against them, lay in wait our Ukraine Matadors.

[Heartofice]

What I don’t understand about the Moskva line from Russia is that surely a fire on your flagship which then sank when you dragged it home, in some ways just sounds worse than it being torpedoed. Are Russians more ok with incompetence and poor quality equipment than we’d expect?

[Luzifer's right hand]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

What I don’t understand about the Moskva line from Russia is that surely a fire on your flagship which then sank when you dragged it home, in some ways just sounds worse than it being torpedoed. Are Russians more ok with incompetence and poor quality equipment than we’d expect?

Incompetence can be solved easily with a purge. If there are people left to be purged obviously.

An enemy that can sink your ships is much more difficult to deal with.

[Werthead]

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

What I don’t understand about the Moskva line from Russia is that surely a fire on your flagship which then sank when you dragged it home, in some ways just sounds worse than it being torpedoed. Are Russians more ok with incompetence and poor quality equipment than we’d expect?

Some of Russian state media is even pursuing that line: the ship was imperfectly maintained, there's been huge corruption and embezzlement in the military procurement system and that's something that needs to be fixed.

I suspect it's teeing up mass reforms in the Russian military post-war.

Here's an interesting one. A fierce advocate of the takeover of Crimea and Donbas (and veteran of the 2014-onwards campaigns in Donbas) and has been a cheerleader of the Russian government for some time has turned on the campaign pretty vociferously. He still believes in the cause, but he believes that the way Russia has gone about it is completely shambolic, even accusing the Kremlin of deliberately playing into the West's hands. Some of his comments are pretty brutally frank, including confirming that the elections in Crimea to justify their takeover were shambolic and many military officials (even pro-Russian ones) objected to it because they knew it would start a frozen conflict that would cost many of their lives.

 

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Here's an interesting one. A fierce advocate of the takeover of Crimea and Donbas (and veteran of the 2014-onwards campaigns in Donbas) and has been a cheerleader of the Russian government for some time has turned on the campaign pretty vociferously. He still believes in the cause, but he believes that the way Russia has gone about it is completely shambolic, even accusing the Kremlin of deliberately playing into the West's hands. Some of his comments are pretty brutally frank, including confirming that the elections in Crimea to justify their takeover were shambolic and many military officials (even pro-Russian ones) objected to it because they knew it would start a frozen conflict that would cost many of their lives.

 

That is interesting.  Combined with warnings from Russia that Ukrainian actions may “force” Russia to declare war.  I suspect to give Russia the ability to prompt a general mobilization?  Would the Russian public sit quietly for such a move given stuff like the above statement?  Could a general mobilization actually prompt a Russian uprising against the Russian dictator?

[Werthead]

19 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That is interesting.  Combined with warnings from Russia that Ukrainian actions may “force” Russia to declare war.  I suspect to give Russia the ability to prompt a general mobilization?  Would the Russian public sit quietly for such a move gived stuff like the above statement?  Could a general mobilization actually prompt a Russian uprising against the Russian dictator?

Hard to say but I think general mobilisation is difficult to sell.

Despite the propaganda there is limited support for a full-scale war against Ukraine or the West. Voluntary recruitment drives have turned up risible numbers. Russian people have, to some degree, gotten used to decent lives in the last 30 years, or at least much better than their parents and grandparents, and aren't in any hurry to throw their lives away for no reason. Most Russians know that Ukraine, and indeed no country on Earth, is no threat to them given the strength of Russia's nuclear and antiair forces. The propaganda wing of the Russian state media is most effective on the over-40s, also the demographic of the least use in general mobilisation.

You also have the issue that European Russia is by far the most populous part of the country. Russia has so far been using a lot of conscripts and recruits from the provinces, widely dispersed in the vast countryside, so the scale of the losses are much less apparent. If Russia starts seeing bodybags coming back and vast numbers of bereaved mothers turning out in Moscow and St. Petersburg, that's a different matter (and that helped end the war in Afghanistan and also presaged the beginning of the end of the USSR). I think there's a feeling that Russia can probably handle it for a short burst, but without a convincing threat to Russian soil itself, it could destabilise things.

[Werthead]

Interesting, Roman Abramovich rocked up in Kyiv again yesterday and went into "serious discussions" with the Ukrainian government.

Despite speculation that Abramovich is not as influential as he was with Putin - which might mean anything - one of the richest men in Russia and one of the longest-surviving oligarchs from the 1990s and one of the few from that time who hasn't lost favour, does not get to travel to Kyiv without government approval. It might be that he's gone on his own initiative to revive the peace talks and the Kremlin has said, "sure, whatever, it sounds good even if nothing happens," or he might have gone with some kind of important (generous or excessively threatening) negotiating point that Russia doesn't want getting out in the general reports from a more formal exchange, like the Turkish negotiating forum. The Ukrainians have even been treating him like an honest broker, asking the West to refrain or roll back individual sanctions on him if he comes through.

So far no word on what was discussed.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

This could be a big deal… or not given that it is coming from internal Ukrainian sources:

 

[Werthead]

There was another report yesterday of something approaching a riot in Rostov. The new recruits who'd shown up had a lot of people who were too old to fight, reportedly some who'd been fired from their old units for prostitution (!) and a whole ton of people who believed their job wasn't to fight but to loot, starting off with their own training base. Apparently someone was stopped from making off with a training boat. One instructor had a complete meltdown over it.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Werthead said:

There was another report yesterday of...a whole ton of people who believed their job wasn't to fight but to loot, starting off with their own training base.

Kleptocracy in action.  Steal what you can before someone else does.

[Werthead]

Social media watchers in Russia have noted one confirmed death from the Moskva, posted by a family member. That family member said another 27 were missing.

Mykolaiv has been under continuous bombardment for the last day or so, but the Russians have not so far mounted a major offensive. Ukrainian ground forces are keeping them bottled up in Kherson.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

18 hours ago, Tongue Stuck to Wall said:

I'm assuming the fastest would be sold to oligarchs and the rest eaten.

Ikea has left Russia.

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Some of Russian state media is even pursuing that line: the ship was imperfectly maintained, there's been huge corruption and embezzlement in the military procurement system and that's something that needs to be fixed.

I suspect it's teeing up mass reforms in the Russian military post-war.

Here's an interesting one. A fierce advocate of the takeover of Crimea and Donbas (and veteran of the 2014-onwards campaigns in Donbas) and has been a cheerleader of the Russian government for some time has turned on the campaign pretty vociferously. He still believes in the cause, but he believes that the way Russia has gone about it is completely shambolic, even accusing the Kremlin of deliberately playing into the West's hands. Some of his comments are pretty brutally frank, including confirming that the elections in Crimea to justify their takeover were shambolic and many military officials (even pro-Russian ones) objected to it because they knew it would start a frozen conflict that would cost many of their lives.

 

 

Quick reminder the Dutch (prosecutors) still want a word with Girkin about that downed Malaysia Airlines flight. The Ukrainians would like to get their hands on him, too.

[SeanF]

7 hours ago, Heartofice said:

What I don’t understand about the Moskva line from Russia is that surely a fire on your flagship which then sank when you dragged it home, in some ways just sounds worse than it being torpedoed. Are Russians more ok with incompetence and poor quality equipment than we’d expect?

I agree that it would be better to attribute it to enemy action than an own goal.