Gorn Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Bryansk strike was apparently from a Ukrainian Bayraktar drone, Russians shot it down as it was flying back to base. Still, a major embarrassment for their air defenses. A low-flying helicopter or a missile are one thing - a non-stealth attack drone is quite another. Especially since they were all supposed to be destroyed by now - Russia has claimed more of them destroyed than Ukraine actually has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 5 hours ago, Padraig said: If Ukraine does survive this war, a huge amount of money will be required for reconstruction (which will also be a time for huge opportunity). Its actually in the EU's interest for that money to go to a prospective member, rather than somebody who is looking for other friends. EU infusions into the economies of Spain and Portugal did wonders for those countries' economies, infrastructure other modernizations and improvements, and standard of living, for a single example. Of course those nations hadn't been devastated by a war, like Ukraine's. Just another way of saying , which is fairly worthless as I'm neither in the EU nor Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 4 hours ago, Werthead said: More positive analysis from Ukraine, western and even some Russian sources over the weekend believing that Ukraine's chances of winning the conflict are increasing. Oil storage tanks are on fire in Bryansk, but halfway across the oblast from Ukraine (150km from the border) and no indications there was an attack from the air. The cause is unclear. Reports are that the fuel tanks were set alight by a Ukrainian drone strike. Which is pretty embarrassing to Russian air defenses. Just the fact that in this thread we're discussing "has the Spring offensive started?" is a pretty bad sign for Russia. If this is still the buildup phase, then why so many losses of valuable vehicles and planes? If this is the main offensive, then not only have they not achieved a breakthrough, they've barely advanced at all. This is looking a lot less Operation Michael than Nivelle Offensive (obviously with lower casualties than either of those). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Explosions reported in Tiraspol, Transnistria. Apparently someone fired RPGs at the headquarters of the state security building. Two abandoned RPG-27s found nearby, only operated by Russia and Jordan (unlikely to be Jordan). Possibly a false flag attack to implicate Moldova or Ukraine and encourage military (or more military) action against either. Or signs of internal dissent within Transnistria. Russian media widely reporting a false claim that the UK has threatened to carry out a unilateral nuclear strike on Russian territory (note: a small country with less 300 nuclear warheads threatening to attack one with 6,000 would be unwise, although the same would be true for the reverse; a few hundred is all you need). Apparently Boris Johnson said it yesterday but they have provided no proof. Some Russian social media channels saying it was a misinformation spread by Ukrainians. This comes a day after Russian TV channels got very annoyed at the US completely ignoring their new ICBM test. Western intelligence now believes that 15,000 Russian soldiers have been KIA. No confirmation of the 7,000 missing or the 6,000 irregular forces figures, but they've presumably gone up as well, so probably between to 28,000-30,000 KIA and missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a free shadow Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 5 hours ago, Werthead said: More positive analysis from Ukraine, western and even some Russian sources over the weekend believing that Ukraine's chances of winning the conflict are increasing. I am concerned that everyone is overly positive at the moment, almost giving in to wishfulness. Not sure to what extent it is a factual conclusion on my part and how much just a personal feeling... Only saying this as the thread is about to close and it should not bother anyone, other than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, a free shadow said: I am concerned that everyone is overly positive at the moment, almost giving in to wishfulness. Not sure to what extent it is a factual conclusion on my part and how much just a personal feeling... Only saying this as the thread is about to close and it should not bother anyone, other than me. I think it's less wishfulness and more an analysis of the economics of war. Wars are won by economics and almost nothing else, and Russia's economic situation is bad and its ability to reinforce and resupply and sustain its current rate of losses is simply non-existent. On the other hand, Ukraine's resupply routes seem reasonably strong, its technical capabilities are increase, it currently has more tanks than it started the war with and even its reinforcement capability seems to be improving (apparently Ukraine's national mobilisation is only around 50-60% complete, it has hundreds of thousands more reserves becoming available over the next few weeks). Russia can certainly still win but it requires a breakthrough which has so far not materialised (although it still could, of course). Of course, it might also be that the Ukrainian definition of victory (returning to 23 February lines) might differ from that of some of its allies (who might see an independent Ukraine surviving under its current government even if it loses the Donbas as a victory of sorts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a free shadow Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Werthead said: I think it's less wishfulness and more an analysis of the economics of war. Wars are won by economics and almost nothing else, and Russia's economic situation is bad and its ability to reinforce and resupply and sustain its current rate of losses is simply non-existent. That's true, and hopefully will result as expected. The feeling I have and am now trying to put into words is less rational, more thinking about people and character. More along the lines of "don't give Russians a lull, they will always surprise you then". At the moment, many seem to be considering this a relatively calmer period of repositioning, nearly allowing Ukraine to get a break awaiting new influx of weapons. Which is just so optimistic, that I might not be built for that. On the other hand, any decisive moves by Russia would require some competence and if it is true that all competent personell is truly and fully rotted out of all structures, then there is no one to make these moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, a free shadow said: I am concerned that everyone is overly positive at the moment, almost giving in to wishfulness. Not sure to what extent it is a factual conclusion on my part and how much just a personal feeling... Only saying this as the thread is about to close and it should not bother anyone, other than me. I have been fighting my own optimism about the potential for Ukrainian victory for over a month now. But I'm seeing more and more signs of Ukrainian success and Russian weakness. The performance of the Russian military is dismal and barely improving. Russia's military is pretty clearly losing combat power week by week, whereas Ukraine is getting stronger (at least in many key respects). Russia's economic and technological weaknesses mean that its ability to grind out a victory over 6-12 months is also doubtful. If Russia cannot achieve its objectives with this spring offensive (and I'm doubtful that it can) then it will have no good options. I can either escalate with mass mobilization/WMDs, which will carry significant political risks for Putin and does not guarantee victory. Or it can hold firm on the territory it has captured and hope that they can negotiate something close to a "win". At that point Ukraine will have the initiative to try and retake as much territory as possible. Remains to be seen how effective they can be at that task, but Ukraine retaking key towns like Kherson and Melitopol is a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Maithanet said: Reports are that the fuel tanks were set alight by a Ukrainian drone strike. Which is pretty embarrassing to Russian air defenses. Just the fact that in this thread we're discussing "has the Spring offensive started?" is a pretty bad sign for Russia. If this is still the buildup phase, then why so many losses of valuable vehicles and planes? If this is the main offensive, then not only have they not achieved a breakthrough, they've barely advanced at all. This is looking a lot less Operation Michael than Nivelle Offensive (obviously with lower casualties than either of those). I just have to quibble here. Your link to the Nivelle Offensive was informative but infuriating also in that there was not a single mention of the Canadian Corp and the greatest general to serve in WWI, General Sir Authur Currie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, maarsen said: I just have to quibble here. Your link to the Nivelle Offensive was informative but infuriating also in that there was not a single mention of the Canadian Corp and the greatest general to serve in WWI, General Sir Authur Currie. If you want to correct this injustice, I believe it is within your power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorn Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, Gorn said: [tweet] This is hilarious, but I'm skeptical that they could possibly be this incompetent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorn Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maithanet said: This is hilarious, but I'm skeptical that they could possibly be this incompetent. Original video from the Russian TV: Signature Unclear is on 03:58, Sims 3 are on 05:32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorn Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 The worst thing is, I just started watching The Americans. My suspension of disbelief, completely ruined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 You shall all rue the day you ridiculed the indomitable Signature Unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Sounds like Russia is gearing up for its fake referendum in Kherson. Kherson's city council and staff were all dismissed today. 1 Ukrainian Stugna taking out 4 Russian tanks and armoured vehicles in a row. Apparently this is an export model that Ukraine had sold to the Middle East but not shipped when the invasion started, hence the Arabic letters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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