Matrim Fox Cauthon Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 38 minutes ago, Werthead said: One of the Russian state TV shows last night was telling people not to worry if this escalates to a nuclear exchange because "we will all go to heaven." Cheery. https://youtu.be/Vaf4xyzX0xQ?t=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceChampion Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Quote they see no evidence the Russians are mobilizing their battlefield nuclear forces Which unit is trained to use those? Can't be the average conscript/contractor. Spetnaz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Russia has hit Kyiv with two cruise missiles at the same moment the UN Secretary General was talking to Zelensky. The attack was nowhere near the site of the meeting (although the site's location is kept secret). Either a message that Russia doesn't care about the UN being involved or possibly a kneejerk response to Biden's earlier comments. Between this and Russia's increased sabre-rattling towards Kazakhstan, I'm wondering if China is starting to become more concerned about their erstwhile ally becoming a liability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a free shadow Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Werthead said: not to worry if this escalates to a nuclear exchange because "we will all go to heaven." We will all go together when we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 In a very weird moment, Russia staged the shoot down of a Bayraktar TB-2 drone near Kherson using the wreckage of a drone that had been shot down previously. The drone had fairly distinctive damage, so it was recognised pretty quickly. I get the TB-2 had a big morale-boosting effect earlier in the conflict but it's not been so decisive recently, and Russia has shot down a few of them by now. Unclear why they faked the destruction of something that is being destroyed for real every few days (mind you, they have shot down the entire Ukrainian airforce about one and a half times over by now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, a free shadow said: We will all go together when we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a free shadow Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, Werthead said: Unclear why they faked the destruction of something that is being destroyed for real every few days (mind you, they have shot down the entire Ukrainian airforce about one and a half times over by now). A lot of wars are thought in the Russian heads, namely along the lines of "how are we appearing to be", instead of "how are we, really?". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Convincing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 @Werthead If the Russians attempt an amphibious assault on Moldova or the southern portion of Ukraine that abuts southern Moldova do the Ukrainians have sufficient anti-ship capabilities to make such a move a costly proposition? Would Romania act directly against such a move as that would put Romania directly in Russian sights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: @Werthead If the Russians attempt an amphibious assault on Moldova or the southern portion of Ukraine that abuts southern Moldova do the Ukrainians have sufficient anti-ship capabilities to make such a move a costly proposition? Would Romania act directly against such a move as that would put Romania directly in Russian sights? Difficult to say. If Transnistrian forces invade Moldova, that's a serious escalation because Moldova and Romania have close ties. In fact, Moldova has several times mulled a referendum to join Moldova to Romania. Romania may intervene, it may not. Russian forces taking part via the far SW of Ukraine would be dangerous, as they might get cut off and unable to retreat or reinforce. It's unclear what Ukrainian forces are in the area to cut off such an invasion; most Ukrainian antiship defences in the region have been centred in Odesa itself. It makes far more sense for the Transnistrian and Russian forces to attack Odesa to attempt a capture of the city, but that would be prone to fail unless supported by a landward push from Kherson via Mykolaiv. But it looks like Russia wants to carry out the referendum there first, which is being hampered by Ukrainian counter-attacks. Otherwise, the situation might just literally be Russia showing it can stir up shit in Moldova-Transnistria for the sake of it, and a warning that next time it will be in Serbia or somewhere more serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Maithanet said: That said, it is possible that Ukraine would rather get peace rather than fight to the bitter end for every last kilometer of ground. Their country is enduring so much suffering and every week increases the rebuilding challenge. Kharkiv is virtually ruined and that's the second largest city in the country (or was anyway). Well, there's sorta problem with Ukraine ceding too much territory. If they too much, the country/state won't be sustainable. The Donbaz is the industrial heart of Ukraine. A lot of their farming areas are located in the North East (Sumska (Sumy) Oblast and Poltava Oblast). If those were to fall, things would get very difficult for Ukraine down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: Well, there's sorta problem with Ukraine ceding too much territory. If they too much, the country/state won't be sustainable. The Donbaz is the industrial heart of Ukraine. A lot of their farming areas are located in the North East (Sumska (Sumy) Oblast and Poltava Oblast). If those were to fall, things would get very difficult for Ukraine down the road. Right, Ukraine is definitely not going to agree to the current lines of control unless their military options are fully exhausted. But if Russia were to hand back all the ground they've conquered except a narrow land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas/Luhansk republics, that would leave Ukraine with most of their country, and still plenty of access to the Black Sea (although not the Sea of Azov). That still leaves them vulnerable to death in detail to a potential Russian invasion sometime in the future, which is why such a concession is so unappealing. But that said, it would hardly leave Ukraine as a rump state. 22 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: @Werthead If the Russians attempt an amphibious assault on Moldova or the southern portion of Ukraine that abuts southern Moldova do the Ukrainians have sufficient anti-ship capabilities to make such a move a costly proposition? Would Romania act directly against such a move as that would put Romania directly in Russian sights? I'm not a military expert, but I can't see any Russian military option against Moldova that ends in anything but disaster. It would be hard to get the troops in, it would be almost impossible to supply them and any troops they send would have a high likelihood of being cut off and captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 Translated account of a Russian who volunteered to be an LPR soldier. According to the twitter comments (so no guarantee) this guy is known for having a right wing blog and that's why he chose to volunteer. FYI, a 200 = KIA, 300 = WIA The picture he paints is pretty grim for Russia, so much so that I wonder if this is just all fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamjm Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 10 hours ago, Werthead said: Erm. Maybe they're the new crew of the Moskva? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Is Lukashenko surrendering Belarussian sovereignty… to Moscow (in concrete terms rather than secretly)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceChampion Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said: Are the 10 QAnon caucus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 30 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Is Lukashenko surrendering Belarussian sovereignty… in to Moscow (in concrete terms rather than secretly)? Still funny to think some people declare Putin is too smart to be an expansionist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Are the 10 QAnon caucus? Who else could they be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterfell is Burning Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Is Lukashenko surrendering Belarussian sovereignty… to Moscow (in concrete terms rather than secretly)? If the Twitter thread by Grozev that was linked in the other page is to be believed (and there's no reason not to), it's about the 1000th time Lukashenko dangled that carrot in front of Putin's eyes. If Belarussian troops were actually being deployed, there.might be reason to believe, but it's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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