Ukraine 14 - Back to the Mud

[Werthead]

7 minutes ago, a free shadow said:

Poland would not rush Belarus, even if they can get away with it, what even is this. Lukoshenko is seen as an annoying problem, not the country or the people. You don't start going through the bodies of your neighbours just because you can get away with it.

And as regards Lukoshenko in general, nobody pays any attention to what he says or does anymore. They are very aware he is there, but nobody believes him, nobody wants him, nobody even sees him, they look past him as an extra celofane on the Russian sandwich.

Obviously that's not going to happen, but Poland-Belarus tensions are very high because of Belarus trying to force a new refugee crisis on Poland against its will, which led to some very tense stand-offs on the border. If Belarus was not protected by Russia, Poland may have well taken much firmer action, since it has a much larger and more capable military. Poland may not have invaded Belarus and alienated the people (the Polish government well knows that Lukashenko's position is more precarious than it has been in the past), but it may have used some form of military action to force the Belarusian military away from the border and stop trying to stage an artificial migrant crisis.

[a free shadow]

23 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Obviously that's not going to happen

Then why say it could I am of course aware of the migrant crisis and how royally angry everyone was at Lukoshenko for it. At the core of it, what prevented further escalation was not some great fear of a terrible retaliation from Russia (although anticipation of a Russian provocation was one of the reasons why it was avoided so meticulously), but the understanding of the inherent messiness of it no matter who is involved.

[Zorral]

Russians steal vast amounts of Ukrainian grain and equipment, threatening this year's harvest

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/05/europe/russia-ukraine-grain-theft-cmd-intl/index.html

Quote

 

(CNN)Russian forces are stealing farm equipment and thousands of tons of grain from Ukrainian farmers in areas they have occupied, as well as targeting food storage sites with artillery, multiple sources have told CNN.

The phenomenon has accelerated in recent weeks as Russian units have tightened their grip on parts of the rich agricultural regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, the sources said. Sowing operations in many areas have since been disrupted or abandoned.

The actions of the Russian forces may threaten the harvest this year in one of the world's most important grain-producing countries. The volumes involved are said to be huge.

Oleg Nivievskyi, an agrarian specialist at the Kyiv School of Economics, told CNN that on the eve of the invasion 6 million tons of wheat and 15 million tons of corn were ready for export from Ukraine, much of it held in the south of the country. ....

 

 

[Wilbur]

The whole Russian invasion is intensely surreal, like a fever dream of an 80s pulp SciFi novel.

An incompetent Russian military invasion of a former satellite coupled with parallel individual and state-sponsored looting, pillage and rapine in the face of an American proxy war, with drone warfare against main battle tanks as the primary source of competitive advantage while the Holy See of Rome admonishes the Patriarch of Moscow.

It is like a Baen novel by David Drake come to life.

[ThinkerX]

3 hours ago, Wilbur said:

The whole Russian invasion is intensely surreal, like a fever dream of an 80s pulp SciFi novel.

An incompetent Russian military invasion of a former satellite coupled with parallel individual and state-sponsored looting, pillage and rapine in the face of an American proxy war, with drone warfare against main battle tanks as the primary source of competitive advantage while the Holy See of Rome admonishes the Patriarch of Moscow.

It is like a Baen novel by David Drake come to life.

You are aware, I trust, that this is only volume one or two of an entire series. The next book includes a collapse of central authority in Russia, major unauthorized communication, trade, and travel between Russia and the west, and religious fanatics latching onto nukes. 

[Werthead]

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

So the dolphins turned on them, too?

[Werthead]

Unclear why a cruise missile carrier needed to be so close to the coast. They usually sit off Sevastopol, from where they can hit almost the entire country.

[a free shadow]

7 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Unclear why

Isn't it the most accurate description of the entire Russian operation?

[Loge]

17 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Unclear why a cruise missile carrier needed to be so close to the coast. They usually sit off Sevastopol, from where they can hit almost the entire country.

Well, there have been drone strikes on Snake Island, not to mention those patrol boats that were sunk. If Russia wants to keep the island occupied it probably must send reinforcements of some kind.

 

ETA: 

 

 

 

[broken one]

Russia has (had?) 3 frigates of the class on the Black Sea, pretty big ships (and brand new ones). Best news I got today, hope it is true.

Btw: as for using sea mammals for military purposes - I took impression people find it suprising. Soviet Union/Russia and USA have been doing it for 50 years already. They are trained to search for mines, plant bombs and attack divers.

[Loge]

1 hour ago, broken one said:

Russia has (had?) 3 frigates of the class on the Black Sea, pretty big ships (and brand new ones). Best news I got today, hope it is true.

Btw: as for using sea mammals for military purposes - I took impression people find it suprising. Soviet Union/Russia and USA have been doing it for 50 years already. They are trained to search for mines, plant bombs and attack divers.

Russia had(?) only three frigates of this type in its entire navy. Apparently they have sold the ones still under construction to India. I wonder why. Anyways, Ukraine now claims eleven Russian ships sunk,  one up from yesterday, so it looks like they really destroyed the Admiral Makarov. Defending Snake Island is becoming costly for Russia. Would be sweet if Ukraine could take it back.

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Unclear why a cruise missile carrier needed to be so close to the coast. They usually sit off Sevastopol, from where they can hit almost the entire country.

It might be because Russian cruise missiles are much less accurate than advertised, especially at longer range. They managed to hit that bridge near Odesa pretty easily multiple times, but their attempts to destroy the bridges over Dnieper have mostly been a failure so far (with the exception of a recent hit on Amurskyi bridge in Dnipro). They fired multiple missiles at the bridge in Zaporozhye and haven't hit it yet.

A lot of their other missiles are also missing their assumed targets - they wouldn't spend a multi-million dollar missile to destroy a random residential building or a car mechanic workshop.

[broken one]

9 minutes ago, Loge said:

Russia had(?) only three frigates of this type in its entire navy. Apparently they have sold the ones still under construction to India. I wonder why. Anyways, Ukraine now claims eleven Russian ships sunk,  one up from yesterday, so it looks like they really destroyed the Admiral Makarov. Defending Snake Island is becoming costly for Russia. Would be sweet if Ukraine could take it back.

The frigate was initially designed for India, then Russians decided to make few for themselves. From what I got Russians were unable to finish all the ships because they could not buy gas turbines - it was in 2015 and the turbines were produced in Ukraine, lol. I think India could somehow obtain the missing parts, so they negotiated purchase of the unready units in 2016.

[Werthead]

Zelensky has indicated that Ukraine will accept a return to 23 February lines as part of a peace settlement, which indicates that he is willing to discus Crimea and the Donbas Republics (within the contact line) no longer being part of Ukraine. That's been pretty consistent, actually, though he previously suggested Crimea and the Donbas could be part of a long-term political and electoral process of transfer to Russia, maybe taking 15 years.

Ukraine and Russia carried out a prisoner exchange today, reportedly over 40 prisoners from each side exchanged including a senior Ukrainian religious leader.

[Werthead]

Lots of urgency over the growing food crisis. Ukraine's grain silos are full and they need to start shipping out grain to make room for this summer's harvest, but obviously that's not possible. With the rail infrastructure under attack they can't get the grain out overland either. The UN World Food Programme is hoping to build on the Russian cooperation with the civilian evacuations from Mariupol to find some way of getting grain shipped out, but they have a big problem with mines off the coast. Quite a few countries in Africa and the Middle East who are nominally on friendly terms with Russia rely on that grain.

Romania and Bulgaria both have plans in place to allow Ukraine to use their ports on the Black Sea to ship grain out, but they have the same problem in getting the grain out from Ukraine in the first place.

[Maithanet]

In the last few days, Ukraine has taken more ground North and East of Kharkiv than the Russians have in their entire Donbas Offensive. 

 

[Kalbear]

My suspicion is that the conscripts will be used to occupy and suppress insurgencies in Ukrainian territory so that other troops can continue their offensive. THey won't be thrown into the grinder all that soon.

I also suspect that Russia is going to go after supply chains outside of Ukraine and go after recon planes and tools. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

7 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

I also suspect that Russia is going to go after supply chains outside of Ukraine and go after recon planes and tools. 

Direct attacks on supply chains outside of Ukraine?  99% of the supply chains outside Ukraine is NATO territory.

[Kalbear]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Direct attacks on supply chains outside of Ukraine?  99% of the supply chains outside Ukraine is NATO territory.

Yep. I'm aware.