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Ukraine 14 - Back to the Mud


Maithanet
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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

Yep. I'm aware. 

That would definitely be a “shit hits the fan” moment.  Why wait until now to strike NATO territory directly?

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison
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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Lots of urgency over the growing food crisis. Ukraine's grain silos are full and they need to start shipping out grain

Haven't the Russians stolen it already?

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6 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Haven't the Russians stolen it already?

Shipping all that grain out of the country is a major logistical operation and if there's one thing we know about how the Russian operation has gone so far, it's that logistics is not a speciality of theirs.

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29 minutes ago, mormont said:

logistics is not a speciality of theirs.

True that, though they are managing everyday to plunder out massive amounts of grain and machinery -- and people.

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1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That would definitely be a “shit hits the fan” moment.  Why wait until now to strike NATO territory directly?

For the same reasons they waited until late Feb to attack - because they had to make some special announcement of it to sell it to others. 

Because they are getting hurt by this and want to actually not have Ukraine have a firehose of equipment, and those depots in Poland are easy pickings. So are those AWACS planes. 

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4 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

Those depots in Poland are easy pickings. So are those AWACS planes. 

You sure about that?  Because such an attack will most certainly result in an escalatory response from NATO.  At a minimum, Ukraine will be getting the planes and anti air capabilities they're asking for, which will not make things any easier.

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Depends on how successful Russia is in stopping supply lines, but I'm also assuming a stance based on Russia saying they are at war with the west - with escalation.

But I think Russia killing awacs or bombing Poland areas will be celebrated as wins.

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As for  going for supply chains outside of Ukraine (or inside) - Russians can attack railway stations in the West easily, but not moving objects. The "kill chain" of such object lasts from a moment it is spotted to the moment of destruction. For Russia in the Western Ukraine it takes too long, from the moment a guy with binoculars or a small drone spots the train (and guesses there's ammunition on it) to the moment a rocket hits... the train would be hundreds kilometers away. They would need airplanes above the territory for the attack to be effective, and this seems rather impossible because of Ukrainian AA systems.

 

 

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NATO also has anti missile systems.  While a stray missile would probably get through from time to time, the idea that they are going to meaningfully damage supply lines is ridiculous.  It is much easier for Russia to hit supply dumps and convoys in Ukraine than doing so in Poland.  And it's not like NATO is going to just be sitting on their hands doing nothing in response to this.  They would respond, quite forcefully.

This would almost assuredly be a war losing move.

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2 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

My suspicion is that the conscripts will be used to occupy and suppress insurgencies in Ukrainian territory so that other troops can continue their offensive. THey won't be thrown into the grinder all that soon.

I also suspect that Russia is going to go after supply chains outside of Ukraine and go after recon planes and tools. 

This presumes basic competence on the part of Russia's military - which has been mostly absent.

It also presumes they retain enough toys in operable condition to make a significant number of such strikes. Between the sanctions and lack of upkeep, well...they could be in serious trouble.

Given the kleptocratic tendencies and utter lack of discipline on display, it is not difficult to envision mass desertions and incompetence to the point of failure on the part of the conscripts posted behind the lines.

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20 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

This presumes basic competence on the part of Russia's military - which has been mostly absent.

 

I didn't mean to imply they'd succeed. But I think they'll try. 

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3 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

I didn't mean to imply they'd succeed. But I think they'll try. 

They might try it on one or two targets to see how the West responds, but that would likely be the extent of those attempts because the West will hit back much harder. 

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17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

They might try it on one or two targets to see how the West responds, but that would likely be the extent of those attempts because the West will hit back much harder. 

No, they won't. 

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5 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

No, they won't. 

Dude, the EU, with some understandable exceptions, might actually ban importing Russian oil. How unthinkable was that for most a month ago? 

Part of Putin's decision making process in the preparation for the invasion was assuming the West wouldn't stand up and do anything. He's been wrong about that at almost every turn and he'd be wrong about it too here if he attacked Poland.

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Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Dude, the EU, with some understandable exceptions, might actually ban importing Russian oil. How unthinkable was that for most a month ago? 

Part of Putin's decision making process in the preparation for the invasion was assuming the West wouldn't stand up and do anything. He's been wrong about that at almost every turn and he'd be wrong about it too here if he attacked Poland.

He wouldn't be attacking Poland exactly, but more importantly the west so far has contributed zero actual people and has not crossed the line of having any nato forces actually attack Russian forces. 

I don't see that changing even if they do get attacked. 

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7 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

He wouldn't be attacking Poland exactly, but more importantly the west so far has contributed zero actual people

The US sent troops to Poland.  A little less than five thousand from the 82nd Airborne.  That's who Biden, Pelosi, and others have been visiting.

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5 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

He wouldn't be attacking Poland exactly, but more importantly the west so far has contributed zero actual people and has not crossed the line of having any nato forces actually attack Russian forces. 

I don't see that changing even if they do get attacked. 

Maybe, maybe not, but there would still be an escalation. Russia's economy will continue to take a beating while even more would be done to supply Ukraine, and hey, wait, where did those fighter jets come from? "No Vlad, buddy, we have no idea how those got there."

 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Werthead

I’ve been scanning OSINT sources but I’m seeing no confirmation of the Russian Frigate being damaged or destroyed.  Do you have any other information?

The National Review is reporting it as on fire from an Ukraine attack.

"Second Russian Warship Struck by Ukraine: Reports"

https://news.yahoo.com/second-russian-warship-struck-ukraine-203251876.html

Edited by DireWolfSpirit
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Posted (edited)

Russia is not going to attack NATO for the same reason the US never invaded North Vietnam fear of escalation. They can't even beat Ukraine on it's own, broadening the war to NATO will just make them lose 100%. NATO is not going to just "let" Russian blow up supply dumps in Poland, if they do that there will be NATO boots on the ground and NATO planes in the sky all over Ukraine. 

Edited by Darzin
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