Ukraine 14 - Back to the Mud

[Werthead]

Putin now speaking after his meeting with Guterres. He is very heavily pushing the idea of a negotiated settlement over the crisis, saying there was excellent progress in Istanbul but this progress was derailed by Bucha (whilst denying Russia had anything to do with it). He thinks if they can get back to where they were in Istanbul, a negotiated settlement could follow quickly.

That's interesting because Istanbul and the surrounding negotiations seemed to be about Russia pulling back to 23 February lines, security guarantees for Ukraine from other countries, allowing Ukraine to join the EU, tabling the status of the Donbas and submitting Crimea to some kind of UN-monitored referendum process. I got the distinct impression that Putin was not really interested in any of these things. Lavrov even indicated they were not acceptable in his earlier press conference today.

Putin has said that civilians can leave Mariupol whenever they like (cough) and that the virtual negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are continuing.

11 minutes ago, DMC said:

Oh, also, just saw this and thought I'd pass it along - Raytheon chief warns of delays in replenishing Stinger missile stocks:

I do find it bizarre that even advanced countries and weapons manufacturers are unable to ramp up to at least a moderate level of war production at short notice (let alone six months notice, which is what they had here). That's the sort of thing they kind of need to do. If you're in a situation where a war could break out anywhere on the globe at a moment's notice and where a completely unexpected, 9/11-style event could happen, it just seems prudent to have supply chains and things ready to go.

[Kalbear]

Some interesting reporting on how western Intel allowed Ukraine to do some pretty remarkable things - like shooting down a transport plane carrying hundreds of Russian troops.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-russian-plane-carry-rcna26015

[Werthead]

Some reports that Russia has cut off gas supplies to Poland. Odd, because that will just shut down the money coming in, and in April that doesn't really matter so much compared to November (with Poland noting it was going to pull out in the autumn anyway). Not as significant as if it had been Germany, obviously.

[Maithanet]

Weird stuff happening around Transnistria.

As you can see in the map above, there is a small portion of Southern Ukraine that  borders the Black Sea and Moldova, and the bridge connecting that area to the rest of Ukraine has been blown up.  That alone wouldn't be that weird, since Russia is in the business of wrecking Ukraine, but there's also explosions in Transnistria (which started yesterday, but today there's more).  These look like a false flag Russian attack, and the Russians are ramping up the rhetoric at least that this is something serious that Transnistria needs to respond. 

But what could they do?  Even Transnistria and the Russian forces combined are like 7k troops in that area.  Up until recently Transnistria signaled they were not interested in getting involved with Ukraine.  And if they did send over their troops, they would probably get routed by the much better equipped Ukrainians (Transnistria is much less well supplied than the Russian army).  They also have to worry about Moldova who could use this as an excuse to kick the Russians out and reestablish sovereignty over the area.  Hard to say if they'd do that (their military isn't strong either) but it's a concern.  Definitely something to keep an eye on. 

[broken one]

14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Weird stuff happening around Transnistria.

As you can see in the map above, there is a small portion of Southern Ukraine that  borders the Black Sea and Moldova, and the bridge connecting that area to the rest of Ukraine has been blown up.  That alone wouldn't be that weird, since Russia is in the business of wrecking Ukraine, but there's also explosions in Transnistria (which started yesterday, but today there's more).  These look like a false flag Russian attack, and the Russians are ramping up the rhetoric at least that this is something serious that Transnistria needs to respond. 

But what could they do?  Even Transnistria and the Russian forces combined are like 7k troops in that area.  Up until recently Transnistria signaled they were not interested in getting involved with Ukraine.  And if they did send over their troops, they would probably get routed by the much better equipped Ukrainians (Transnistria is much less well supplied than the Russian army).  They also have to worry about Moldova who could use this as an excuse to kick the Russians out and reestablish sovereignty over the area.  Hard to say if they'd do that (their military isn't strong either) but it's a concern.  Definitely something to keep an eye on. 

Maybe it is just to draw Ukraine's  attention and bind some forces needed elsewhere.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, broken one said:

Maybe it is just to draw Ukraine's  attention and bind some forces needed elsewhere.

That's the optimistic interpretation, that the Russians are just creating smoke and hoping the Ukrainians move a few battalions to guard an empty border.  I don't have a good idea of how many troops Ukraine already has on that border and whether those are sufficient.  That information isn't really publicly available. 

[Werthead]

46 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But what could they do?  Even Transnistria and the Russian forces combined are like 7k troops in that area.  Up until recently Transnistria signaled they were not interested in getting involved with Ukraine.  And if they did send over their troops, they would probably get routed by the much better equipped Ukrainians (Transnistria is much less well supplied than the Russian army).  They also have to worry about Moldova who could use this as an excuse to kick the Russians out and reestablish sovereignty over the area.  Hard to say if they'd do that (their military isn't strong either) but it's a concern.  Definitely something to keep an eye on. 

I've seen speculation that Russia could land a force SW of Odesa and then attack Moldova from the SE simultaneously with troops from Transnistria. Russia could maybe land 4,000 troops in one go, so you'd have maybe 11,000 troops versus Moldova's standing army of ~8,000 (and reserves of 100,000, but clearly they're not ready to fight immediately).

It seems extremely risky though, not least in triggering an intervention from Romania, a NATO member.

[broken one]

45 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Some reports that Russia has cut off gas supplies to Poland. Odd, because that will just shut down the money coming in, and in April that doesn't really matter so much compared to November (with Poland noting it was going to pull out in the autumn anyway). Not as significant as if it had been Germany, obviously.

Polish PM confirms. According to the government the same happened to Lithuania. Looks like low cost demonstration.

[Werthead]

Just now, broken one said:

Polish PM confirms. According to the government the same happened to Lithuania. Looks like low cost demonstration.

Yup, apparently in retaliation for the refusal to pay in roubles. They haven't followed suit with other countries yet though.

[a free shadow]

14 minutes ago, broken one said:

According to the government the same happened to Lithuania.

It is unlikely, as they recently became the first European country to become fully independent from Russian gas (source: https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/networks-grids/lithuania-ditches-russian-gas). Unless it would be gas in transit, meant for other countries.

[Maithanet]

17 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I've seen speculation that Russia could land a force SW of Odesa and then attack Moldova from the SE simultaneously with troops from Transnistria. Russia could maybe land 4,000 troops in one go, so you'd have maybe 11,000 troops versus Moldova's standing army of ~8,000 (and reserves of 100,000, but clearly they're not ready to fight immediately).

It seems extremely risky though, not least in triggering an intervention from Romania, a NATO member.

That sounds like a complete debacle.  11k troops are definitely not going to compel Moldova to surrender, and might not even make much progress at all.  Russia doesn't exactly have a huge force of reserve troops to commit to a new front.  Ukraine would definitely try and knock out the ships landing and supplying this invasion.  The Russians would have limited ability to airlift anything in (they would have to go through Ukraine at least briefly), so they could be losing planes as well. 

And for what?  Why now?  IMO invading Moldova from Transnistria makes even less sense than invading Ukraine from Transnistria, which would at least have the advantage of stretching Ukraine thinner (although that plan is also highly questionable). 

[Werthead]

Russia lost another Su-34 today, which I believe is their third in a week and their ninth in the whole conflict. They can't keep throwing those away, they're something like $45 million a pop and they only built 120 of them. Not quite as bad as the Su-35 they lost a few weeks back, which was closer to twice that in one plane, but still a lot.

Apparently Ukraine is deploying a type of "drone jammer" which is highly effective against the Orlan drones Russia has been using for recon and artillery spotting. Ukraine has captured or destroyed apparently scores of them in the last few weeks.

Russia has agreed "in principle" to allow the UN to manage an evacuation of civilians from Mariupol and possibly other areas in the Donbas region.

[broken one]

18 minutes ago, a free shadow said:

It is unlikely, as they recently became the first European country to become fully independent from Russian gas (source: https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/networks-grids/lithuania-ditches-russian-gas). Unless it would be gas in transit, meant for other countries.

 Piotr Naimski,  Polish govt proxy for energy infrastructure said he got information from Lithuania that Russia cut off supplies to the country.

Source just for decency: https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/rosja-zakreca-kurek-z-gazem-nie-tylko-polsce-piotr-naimski-ujawnia/tj8sgy5,79cfc278 

[a free shadow]

37 minutes ago, broken one said:

Source

This source also mentions that Lithuania said it became fully independent a month ago. It is a small detail, but will be interesting to see what is the truth. Perhaps they said it too early, or the Polish PM has just misspoken somehow, or maybe Lithuania has no necessity for Russian gas left but contracts for supply are still in place? In which case Russia would be doing them a favor by giving an excuse to get out of that contract. Very small, but interesting from the point of view on how it is hard to believe even the small things.

[broken one]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

I've seen speculation that Russia could land a force SW of Odesa and then attack Moldova from the SE simultaneously with troops from Transnistria. Russia could maybe land 4,000 troops in one go, so you'd have maybe 11,000 troops versus Moldova's standing army of ~8,000 (and reserves of 100,000, but clearly they're not ready to fight immediately).

It seems extremely risky though, not least in triggering an intervention from Romania, a NATO member.

As for Odessa I think Russia can land on its ass and not much anywhere else.

In the East they are able to implement simple tactics, massive artillery barrage, it suits them best and this is concerning.

[lacuna]

Norwegian media reporting that Russian gas to Poland being cut off is no immediate crisis. Apparently their gas reserves are at 70 percent capacity, and they will be safe (when demand decreases during summer) until a new gas pipeline from Norway is up and running within the year.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Interesting.

Quote

Rheinmetall, a Dusseldorf-based arms manufacturer, has applied to the German security council, under the chairmanship of Scholz, for the permission to export 100 decommissioned Marder Panzer, an infantry fighting vehicle which has been central to the mechanised infantry of the German army over the past five decades. These are expected to be renovated over the coming months, with the first ready for dispatch within the next two months. Training of soldiers to operate the armoured vehicles is also expected to take several weeks.

 

From the Guardian.

 

However my udnerstanding (from a Spiegel article a few weeks ago) was, that the German goverment had some doubts about the useability of those Marders. And one of the reasons for not signing off on the shipping was, that they were afraid of shipping junk to Ukraine. Might have been an excuse for not delivering them, but if they indeed turned out to be junk (however unlikely that might seem now)... 

[A True Kaniggit]

Is it Poland + Lithuanian or Poland + Bulgaria, or all three?

Concerning gas exports from Russia being cut off. 

[broken one]

4 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Is it Poland + Lithuanian or Poland + Bulgaria, or all three?

Concerning gas exports from Russia being cut off. 

Let's assume it's only Poland. Morawiecki is outstanding liar. Even for a PM.

[Maltaran]

32 minutes ago, broken one said:

Let's assume it's only Poland. Morawiecki is outstanding liar. Even for a PM.

Gazprom says they’ve stopped supplies to Poland and Bulgaria until they start paying in rubles