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Ukraine 14 - Back to the Mud


Maithanet
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Interestingly, Xi Jinping has spoken to Scholz and stressed the importance of the conflict remaining restricted to Ukraine and not spreading further.

I wonder if he gave that same message to Putin and maybe Putin listened. He's probably the only person Putin will listen to and take seriously. There's limits on the relationship - Xi Jinping can't tell Putin to just end the war and withdraw with any realistic expectation he'd comply - but there's also areas where he can be influential.

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Interesting read on Ukraine's rise to military skill - and how Ukraine forces were the ones teaching others and not the other way around - by one of the people tasked to help them.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/09/ukraine-military-2014-russia-us-training/

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Some Russian success in Donbas, but they are also drawing troops away from the front in Donbas to protect the Kharkiv flank, which appears highly exposed.

The Ukrainians have also claimed an additional advance near Zaporizhia but little information on that so far.

 

 

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Disturbs me that the unaccountable propagandist gets away with his unsubstantiated claim that the U.S. or NATO has threatened him with nukes.

The Cold War is fully reactivated, the peace dividend of the 90's is never more and the real winners are the weapons dealers.

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2 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Disturbs me that the unaccountable propagandist gets away with his unsubstantiated claim that the U.S. or NATO has threatened him with nukes.

All the more ridiculous because Ukraine gave away its nuclear arsenal in the 1990s. It voluntarily agreed to remove WMDs from its soil so it could never be counted as a threat against anyone else.

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13 minutes ago, Werthead said:

All the more ridiculous because Ukraine gave away its nuclear arsenal in the 1990s. It voluntarily agreed to remove WMDs from its soil so it could never be counted as a threat against anyone else.

And now all the world gets to see that that was a mistake. Are you taking notes Iran? This will be on the escalation dominance test.

 

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9 minutes ago, Babblebauble said:

And now all the world gets to see that that was a mistake. Are you taking notes Iran? This will be on the escalation dominance test.

I'm hoping that China has made this point robustly to Russia as well. Non-proliferation works because the nuclear powers are nominally trusted not to go nuts with their nuclear weapons and use them offensively or to coerce or blackmail other countries. The second people think that balance of power is over, every other country will be demanding their own deterrence: Japan, South Korea, Australia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Brazil, Canada and who knows who else. That dramatically raises the risk of a nuclear war breaking out, not to mention the possibility of a nuclear power maybe being taken over by a fundamentalist government who don't care so much about MAD or self-preservation. That could hurt Russia as much as anyone else.

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38 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Disturbs me that the unaccountable propagandist gets away with his unsubstantiated claim that the U.S. or NATO has threatened him with nukes.

The Cold War is fully reactivated, the peace dividend of the 90's is never more and the real winners are the weapons dealers.

The Russian dictator did that in his BS “Victory day” speech?

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46 minutes ago, Werthead said:

All the more ridiculous because Ukraine gave away its nuclear arsenal in the 1990s. It voluntarily agreed to remove WMDs from its soil so it could never be counted as a threat against anyone else.

This cannot be stated enough.

The West is OBLIGATED to honor the terms of Ukraine giving up those nukes for a guarantee of security.

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Quote

Fellow citizens of Russia, veterans, comrade soldiers, sailors, naval officers, army officers, corporals, members of the office of corps. I would like to congratulate you on this, the day where we remember the great victory. The moment when the country defended itself against an existential threat, that innate patriotism, that resistance spirit that was in the fighters in Kiev, Minsk, Stalingrad, Moscow, Kursk, Sevastopol, and Kharkov. Even today, you are fighting for our citizens, for our people in the Donbas region to defend Russia. On the 9th of May, 1945, on that historic date our people triumphed together.

Vladimir Putin: (01:24)
This was a perfect achievement on the front lines and behind. This day of victory is important to everyone in Russia. There is not a single family in Russia that was spared by the war. The regiment of Immortals today honors ancestors. They bear the portraits of their fathers and grandfathers, veterans who are no longer with us. We are proud of the fighting spirit. Our duty is to protect The memory of everyone who fought The Nazis and to do everything we can to make sure that never again, shall we see the atrocities of that war. Despite issues, Russia has always fought for the security that is required for the international community.

Vladimir Putin: (02:35)
In December last year, we offered to create a system. This was a security system and we called on the west to join us in this endeavor. But everything was in vain, the west did not heed us. This means that the west was more interested in other projects, as we saw openly at that time. They were preparing for reprisals in crime and Donbas. In Kiev there was talk of nuclear weapons, and things moved closer to our borders. Little by little, an unacceptable threat made its way closer to our borders. Everything showed that the Banderas and neo-Nazis were inevitable. I say it again: we clearly saw the deployment of military infrastructure. We clearly saw the supplies of military equipment and the threat was growing every day.

Vladimir Putin: (03:58)
Russia did everything to prevent the advance of the aggressor. It was the only correct decision, the sovereign decision of an independent country. The United States, especially after the fault of the Soviet Union, Started talking about American exceptionalism, humiliating the rest of the world in doing so, including their allies, satellites who closed their eyes to what was being done and swallowed everything. But we in Russia are different. We will never give up on our love of our country. We will never give up on our values, on our traditions, our ancestral traditions. In the west, these thousand year old traditions have been done away with. History has been rewritten in the west.

Vladimir Putin: (05:08)
The victims of the Second World War are disregarded. We know that the veterans of the Second World War who wanted to be with us today to commemorate the Second World War we’re not given permission to come to Russia. But know that today, we pay homage to every veteran from America, from France, resistance, Chinese people, everyone who fought against Nazism. Today, the militia in Donbas, alongside the Russian army are fighting for their land. [inaudible 00:06:02] of the Potemkin soldiers, this is where the fighters of the Second World War fought hand in hand. I would like to speak to the militia in Donbas. You are fighting for the future of your country. You are fighting so that no one forgets the lessons of the Second World War. Today, we pay homage to the sacrifice of all those who fell. The sons, the daughters, the husbands, the wives, the sisters, family members, grandfathers, grandmothers. Today, we bow to their memory.

Vladimir Putin: (07:01)
People who were burnt alive in 2014, the civilians in Donbas who fell to neo-Nazi fire. We bow to the memories of the fighters who fought in this, just fight for Russia. Now hold a minute of silence.

Vladimir Putin: (08:35)
The death of every one of our officers and soldiers is a loss for their loved ones, is a loss for civilian society, for regions, and we will do everything to help those families. We will support them, and we will especially support the children of others who fell for our country. I have just assigned a law in order to do that. I commend the soldiers who are wounded, as well as the medical staff, the doctors and nurses for their devotion. I commend you for your efforts to defend and save lives while risking your very own. Comrades, here on Red Square, the soldiers and officers stand side by side. Soldiers and officers from the different regions of our country, including those who come from the front line, from the Donbas. We remember that our enemies tried to turn international terrorist bands against us in order to divide us, in order to break us, but they failed.

Vladimir Putin: (10:09)
Today, our fighters from all the different nations of our country are United and fight together side by side to defend us, and that is our strength, the strength of the unity of our great people. We are fighting to defend what was defended by our ancestors. Because above all, they cherished independence and the security of our homeland. All of those who defeated Nazism in the great patriotic war, they all gave us a lesson to learn, and we will always follow the example. Glory to our troops. Glory to Russia and glory to victory.

This is a transcript of his speech. I remembered it that he accused USA of threatening nukes, but it was actually "In Kiev there was talk of nuclear weapons, and things moved closer to our borders."  

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This is an offshoot of the discussion I was attempting to bring up the other day before I got completely derailed by what I can -most charitably - call stupid dumb whiny shit over absolutely nothing that not only failed to contribute to productive conversation but actively murdered any such chance before it could be begun. 

If the rules of war are allowed to become "we have nuke. You don't. Give me this, that, and one other thing just because." That opens the door to that kind of nuclear coercion for everyone. Do you think the North Koreans would watch the world sell away Ukrainian territory and political sovereignty -specifically because of fear of nuclear escalation- to Russia and not say "hey, we're literally starving to death, let's try what they tried!" 

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4 minutes ago, Babblebauble said:

If the rules of war are allowed to become "we have nuke. You don't. Give me this, that, and one other thing just because." That opens the door to that kind of nuclear coercion for everyone. Do you think the North Koreans would watch the world sell away Ukrainian territory and political sovereignty -specifically because of fear of nuclear escalation- to Russia and not say "hey, we're literally starving to death, let's try what they tried!" 

And the obvious result would be every country with the capability to develop nukes would need them.  The threat of a nuclear war goes up pretty dramatically if Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Indonesia, Canada and Brazil all join the nuclear club.  Not to mention the incredible waste of all those countries developing and maintaining nukes instead of spending that money on helping their people or fighting climate change. 

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12 minutes ago, Babblebauble said:

This is an offshoot of the discussion I was attempting to bring up the other day before I got completely derailed by what I can -most charitably - call stupid dumb whiny shit over absolutely nothing that not only failed to contribute to productive conversation but actively murdered any such chance before it could be begun. 

Yeah you getting up on your soapbox about people saying offramp instead of appeasement really was stupid dumb whiny shit.

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18 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

And the obvious result would be every country with the capability to develop nukes would need them.  The threat of a nuclear war goes up pretty dramatically if Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Indonesia, Canada and Brazil all join the nuclear club.  Not to mention the incredible waste of all those countries developing and maintaining nukes instead of spending that money on helping their people or fighting climate change. 

For want of more thanks buttons. We had almost eighty years of pretty good limits on warfare and I think it numbed people to the rotten ice we've all been living on since the fifties. 

And it's gonna get worse, much worse, in the next few decades as resource scarcity starts to bite. I expect nations such as listed above to explain their need for nuclear capacity based on not getting completely shafted by the likes of U.S.A and China when it comes to trade. Which will be a matter of life and death in the 2050s.

Keeping that toothpaste in the tube for as long as possible is the only intelligent play in a game full of deathtraps. So that's why you don't let the new Sick Man of Europe bite off chunks of their neighbors with little more than muttered threats. Because then everyone is gonna expect the game to be played that way, and everyone is gonna base their strategies on the idea that if you know someone with nukes who doesn't like you you need to have some yourself or else you're fucked because the rest of the world ain't gonna have your back if it endangers them. 

 

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2 hours ago, Babblebauble said:

And now all the world gets to see that that was a mistake. 

 

Back then Ukraine had no technical nor financial means to upkeep the weapons. Moreover, from what I remember the state was terribly corrupted and weak, there was popular belief it does not have much control over what's going on in there, banditry thirved. Initially Ukrainian army was much stronger than Polish, but it decayed fast, the effect was 2014.

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14 minutes ago, broken one said:

Back then Ukraine had no technical nor financial means to upkeep the weapons. Moreover, from what I remember the state was terribly corrupted and weak, there was popular belief it does not have much control over what's going on in there, banditry thirved. Initially Ukrainian army was much stronger than Polish, but it decayed fast, the effect was 2014.

And it still was a mistake! Better to have shitty nukes that you can threaten with than give them away to your nuke-armed neighbor who can invade you with no direct help coming. 

Even dirty bombs are better than nothing when dealing with the threat of reciprocity and deterrence. 

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28 minutes ago, broken one said:

Back then Ukraine had no technical nor financial means to upkeep the weapons. Moreover, from what I remember the state was terribly corrupted and weak, there was popular belief it does not have much control over what's going on in there, banditry thirved. Initially Ukrainian army was much stronger than Polish, but it decayed fast, the effect was 2014.

As Kal just explained; revisionist history doesn't work that way. 

Ukraine giving up their ICBMs was a triumph for international peace and goodwill among former foes... In the 90s. 

If Putin nukes Kyiv or uses threats to do so in order to make Ukraine agree to peace under ruinous terms tomorrow then it was a mistake. 

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