Ukraine 14 - Back to the Mud

[Tywin et al.]

5 hours ago, Werthead said:

Either a message that Russia doesn't care about the UN being involved or possibly a kneejerk response to Biden's earlier comments.

They won't care about the UN so long as the UN can't do anything to them that has teeth. I know you and pretty much everyone else agreed they're not going to be kicked out of the UN, but I have recently been seeing articles floating the idea that Russia doesn't actually have an ironclad claim to a permanent seat on SC. Do you think there's any chance this is seriously explored if Russia continues to negotiate in bad faith while bombing civilians for a prolonged period of time? 

[Secretary of Eumenes]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

They won't care about the UN so long as the UN can't do anything to them that has teeth. I know you and pretty much everyone else agreed they're not going to be kicked out of the UN, but I have recently been seeing articles floating the idea that Russia doesn't actually have an ironclad claim to a permanent seat on SC. Do you think there's any chance this is seriously explored if Russia continues to negotiate in bad faith while bombing civilians for a prolonged period of time? 

I'd give it to Iran, with the pretext being that Russia is no longer the premier representative of the communist states or some shit like that. To heap praise on China (you gotta have them on board) and bring Iran into the fold as the permanent representative of central and western Asia. I'd also give it to Iran because all the Sunni states would flip shit, probably start massacring Shia minorities, and when I wildly observate on the destiny of nations I like to go full Murkwürdigliebe with it. But if you could pull that off you'd isolate Russia for good, pull China closer, and bring Iran back to being an ally. With the added bonus that you'll now be financing their  wars of *ahem* pacification and liberation *ahem* in the region and getting them to eventually fight the Saudis. Think of all the stinger missiles we could sell them to fight the Saudis, and all the stuff we've already sold the Saudis that they'll now have to use up against the Iranians! THE 'CONOMY!!!! Everybody wins! And by everybody I mean America; specifically America's military industry because nothing else exists.

Just gotta be willing to exalt a totalitarian state that's committing a genocide as we sit and discuss the heinous Russian actions in what is -at the very VERY least- at least an actual attempt at war, and then unleash another, another, generation of pure chaos and human suffering across most of Asia by embracing (again), a state that -to put it most mildly- does not share whatever values we think we stand for.

Or you could give it to Turkey, which probably ends with less horrific upheavals in West Asia but also ends up exalting another dictator... But I think Turkey is cool so I say go for it.

Politics, man. It's complicated. And that's without even making Ripp spoil his pantaloons by mentioning Russia could threaten to use all 2 ⅖ of their ICB's (the M's were sold off as a package deal, two M's for every daughter you buy at full price) in retaliation for losing their veto. 

Edited April 29, 2022 by Babblebauble

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Babblebauble said:

I'd give it to Iran, with the pretext being that Russia is no longer the premier representative of the communist states or some shit like that. To heap praise on China (you gotta have them on board) and bring Iran into the fold as the permanent representative of central and western Asia. I'd also give it to Iran because all the Sunni states would flip shit, probably start massacring Shia minorities, and when I wildly observate on the destiny of nations I like to go full Murkwürdigliebe with it. But if you could pull that off you'd isolate Russia for good, pull China closer, and bring Iran back to being an ally. With the added bonus that you'll now be financing their  wars of *ahem* pacification and liberation *ahem* in the region and getting them to eventually fight the Saudis. Think of all the stinger missiles we could sell them to fight the Saudis, and all the stuff we've already sold the Saudis that they'll now have to use up against the Iranians! THE 'CONOMY!!!! Everybody wins! And by everybody I mean America; specifically America's military industry because nothing else exists.

Just gotta be willing to exalt a totalitarian state that's committing a genocide as we sit and discuss the heinous Russian actions in what is -at the very VERY least- at least an actual attempt at war, and then unleash another, another, generation of pure chaos and human suffering across most of Asia by embracing (again), a state that -to put it most mildly- does not share whatever values we think we stand for.

Or you could give it to Turkey, which probably ends with less horrific upheavals in West Asia but also ends up exalting another dictator... But I think Turkey is cool so I say go for it.

Politics, man. It's complicated. And that's without even making Ripp spoil his pantaloons by mentioning Russia could threaten to use all 2 ⅖ of their ICB's (the M's were sold off as a package deal, two M's for every daughter you buy at full price) in retaliation for losing their veto. 

Huh?  

[Secretary of Eumenes]

3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Huh?  

The security council seat. Tywin was -rather recklessly I thought- talking about taking it away from Russia somehow. So I thought it would be fun to recklessly opine on what would happen if you did that. 

(I find much of the discourse you people engage in to be ridiculous, if that wasn't clear in the post)

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

27 minutes ago, Babblebauble said:

The security council seat. Tywin was -rather recklessly I thought- talking about taking it away from Russia somehow. So I thought it would be fun to recklessly opine on what would happen if you did that. 

(I find much of the discourse you people engage in to be ridiculous, if that wasn't clear in the post)

It would be next to impossible to strip Russia of the Soviet permanent Security Council seat… China would never stand for it and that was established 6 threads ago.  What is ridiculous about our discussions?  

Pray tell.

Edited April 29, 2022 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

The QAnon Caucus:

Biggs
Bishop (NC)
Davidson
Gaetz
Gosar
Greene (GA)
Massie
Norman
Perry
Tiffany

Was Boebert in the bathroom or something?

[Secretary of Eumenes]

2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

It would be next to impossible to strip Russia of the Soviet permanent Security Council seat… China would never stand for it and that was established 6 threads ago.  What is ridiculous about our discussions?  

Pray tell.

This is not a criticism of you, if anything I think you treat some of these wonderings with a lot more seriousness than they deserve. 

But I find a lot of the conversations in this thread and others to be haughty, assumptive, and rather inconsiderate. Not all comments on all subjects. But enough to raise my ire and make me mock.

[Tywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

It would be next to impossible to strip Russia of the Soviet permanent Security Council seat… China would never stand for it and that was established 6 threads ago.  What is ridiculous about our discussions?  

Pray tell.

Yes, it would be, and no, they never would unless the former became truly reckless with their nuclear capabilities. So by accepting that, isn't the UN rather handicapped at the moment? 

[The Anti-Targ]

Handicapped seems a little bit of an understatement. Completely bloody irrelevant and impotent is probably closer to what the UN can achieve with the Ukraine question.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Handicapped seems a little bit of an understatement. Completely bloody irrelevant and impotent is probably closer to what the UN can achieve with the Ukraine question.

Or most  questions.

[SeanF]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The QAnon Caucus:

Biggs
Bishop (NC)
Davidson
Gaetz
Gosar
Greene (GA)
Massie
Norman
Perry
Tiffany

Was Boebert in the bathroom or something?

I was just reading about MTG attending a conference organised by Church Militant where she and Milo Yiannapoulos were claiming the Pope serves Satan.

[Werthead]

A bunch of cars displaying the Z-symbol were set on fire in Moscow overnight.

Several countries had advised against travel to Transnistria, including Israel.

Ukrainian troops apparently fully recaptured Kutuzivka NE of Kharkiv overnight, and are now fighting in Rus'ka Lozova directly to the north. There's a pocket of Russian forces further NW in danger of being encircled and cut off, at least on the Ukrainian side (they could retreat across the border).

Gerasimov (chief the Russian General Staff) will reportedly take personal command of operations in the Izium area shortly.

Jomini's updates every few days are useful. His latest one shows that Ukraine is holding the Donbas, but pressure is growing. Russian forces in the Donbas concentrating on Severodonetsk to claim victory in Luhansk Oblast. Russia also needs to target the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk area to help secure Donetsk.

Russia seems to be pinning Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia to protect the flank of the Donbas operation, but has also made some small gains along the line. Russia could reinforce here if they think the situation is favourable.

Russia has pushed Ukrainian forces back marginally to the west of Kherson, but has lost some ground to the north.

Western artillery is now in Ukraine for the first time with trained Ukrainian personnel. Might still be a few days or couple of weeks before we start seeing their effect on the battlefield.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

It seems to be a war of attrition at this point, with Ukraine counter-offenses relying on the import of Western armaments at a quicker rate than Russia can replace their dwindling manpower and men. Securing Kherson seems required if Ukraine hopes to maintain a sea border and Odessa. 

[Rippounet]

9 hours ago, Babblebauble said:

But I find a lot of the conversations in this thread and others to be haughty, assumptive, and rather inconsiderate.

Doubling down on the haughtiness was the smart thing to do.

[Maithanet]

 

 

[SpaceChampion]

 

[DMC]

Biden has requested Congress pass $33 billion more in Ukraine aid, more than twice the initial $13.6 billion package.  It may take a while to pass as Dems could link it to $10 billion in covid aid in order to get enough Republican votes for the latter.

[Werthead]

That was fast. The Ukrainian counter-offensive to the north of Kharkiv is gaining ground and Rus'ka Lozova has fallen already. That's putting Ukrainian forces very close to regaining control of the main road from Belgorod towards Kharkiv, and could allow them to start rolling up the Donbas line from its NW corner. More pressure needed, though.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

22 minutes ago, Werthead said:

That was fast. The Ukrainian counter-offensive to the north of Kharkiv is gaining ground and Rus'ka Lozova has fallen already. That's putting Ukrainian forces very close to regaining control of the main road from Belgorod towards Kharkiv, and could allow them to start rolling up the Donbas line from its NW corner. More pressure needed, though.

Have they pushed the center of Kharkiv out of artillery range yet?

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Have they pushed the center of Kharkiv out of artillery range yet?

Not yet, but hopefully soon.