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Immediate consequences of Jon's betrayal of the NW


Rondo
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Lord Commander Jon Snow betrayed the NW and dragged the ancient Brotherhood into conflict with Roose Bolton.  The immediate consequence is chaos within Castle Black.  This unrest will spread to the other forts on the wall and will lead to a divided Brotherhood.  While most will agree with Bowen Marsh, there will undoubtedly be some who will disagree with the assassination of their lord commander.  Regardless of how erratic and incompetent Jon was, he was their elected lord commander.  What will happen shortly after Jon takes his last breath:

  1. Wun the Giant will be killed but not without trouble.
  2. Bowen Marsh will take over as the interim Lord Commander.  He will organize Castle Black but the wildlings will not be placated.
  3. I do not think Bowen and the Brother will be able to stop the wildlings from leaving the castle to attack the Boltons.
  4. The Weeper and his people will come calling just when the castle is in disorder.

What else?

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2 hours ago, Rondo said:

Lord Commander Jon Snow betrayed the NW and dragged the ancient Brotherhood into conflict with Roose Bolton.  The immediate consequence is chaos within Castle Black.  This unrest will spread to the other forts on the wall and will lead to a divided Brotherhood.  While most will agree with Bowen Marsh, there will undoubtedly be some who will disagree with the assassination of their lord commander.  Regardless of how erratic and incompetent Jon was, he was their elected lord commander.  What will happen shortly after Jon takes his last breath:

  1. Wun the Giant will be killed but not without trouble.
  2. Bowen Marsh will take over as the interim Lord Commander.  He will organize Castle Black but the wildlings will not be placated.
  3. I do not think Bowen and the Brother will be able to stop the wildlings from leaving the castle to attack the Boltons.
  4. The Weeper and his people will come calling just when the castle is in disorder.

What else?

Lol you should have minced your words, but now most posts here will just argue with you.

1. How? He's, uh, big. And although the queens men wanted him dead I doubt they're going to side with Bowen, unless you have reason to think otherwise?

2. Word. How long does an interim last? Eventually an election needs to be held and the most dominant contestants will be Mallister and Pyke.

I think the wildlings will be placated, Marsh has their kids after all.

3. I think they probably will, also we should think about the real possibilities of either Ramsays already marching north or he's nowhere close and the pink letter was bs

4. Oh that could be. Or Alliser.

Arya's pulling up, I mean Jeyne, but they think Arya. That should cause quite a scene. Davos the hand is dead, they think, so maybe some queens men will try something. Also, never forget about the others, they've gotta be close by too

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1)  Wun Wundar has gone berserk.  I do not know how a giant on a tear can be stopped without ganging up on him and filling him with arrows.  

2)  Bowen Marsh and the Crows can hide Jon's body until they can regroup but the problem is Wun Wun.  The disturbance will attract the Wildlings to the scene.  But if Bowen Marsh can somehow pin the death of Jon on Wun Wun, yeah, I suppose it could work.  The lord steward Marsh is an honest man but it would not be a bad idea to pin it on the massive giant.

The critical step will be to regroup all of the honorable men of the watch before the Wildlings can learn the truth.

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1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

I think the wildlings will be placated, Marsh has their kids after all.

So many questions and possibilities here. Are all the kids in one spot or are they spread out? If they're in one spot who controls them? What if brothers loyal to Jon have them? What if in the chaos the wildings seize Selyse and want to start trading hostages? What if they don't seize Selyse but tell her they want to march on Winterfell to help Stannis? Would she let Bowen stop them from helping Stannis?

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15 hours ago, Rondo said:

Lord Commander Jon Snow betrayed the NW and dragged the ancient Brotherhood into conflict with Roose Bolton.  The immediate consequence is chaos within Castle Black.  This unrest will spread to the other forts on the wall and will lead to a divided Brotherhood.  While most will agree with Bowen Marsh, there will undoubtedly be some who will disagree with the assassination of their lord commander.  Regardless of how erratic and incompetent Jon was, he was their elected lord commander.  What will happen shortly after Jon takes his last breath:

  1. Wun the Giant will be killed but not without trouble.
  2. Bowen Marsh will take over as the interim Lord Commander.  He will organize Castle Black but the wildlings will not be placated.
  3. I do not think Bowen and the Brother will be able to stop the wildlings from leaving the castle to attack the Boltons.
  4. The Weeper and his people will come calling just when the castle is in disorder.

What else?

Let's start with the errors in your post. 

-Lord Commander Snow did not betray the NW. He intended on answering a threat to himself & the NW. 

-Roose Bolton has naught to do with it, it is Ramsay 

-The chaos started because of the stabbing of the Lord Commander. 

- I highly doubt most will side with Bowen, even if they disagreed with Jon's decision, they won't back murder & multiny. 

The rest is fanfic with no basis in the text. 

1. What reason do you have to believe Wun-Wun will be killed, let alone without trouble? 

2. That isn't how a LC is elected, there is an... Election, remember? 

3. Why would Bowen try to stop the wildlings? He doesn't want them there & if someone doesn't confront Ramsay he intends on attacking the NW. He told them as much. 

4. Why? 

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Suppose Jon just... let Ramsey get the first hit in and attack the NW. Wouldn't the same posters who criticize Jon for betraying his vows be criticizing him for not acting in the face of this obvious threat? Almost like they're going to find a reason to blame Jon no matter what. 

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14 hours ago, Groo said:

So many questions and possibilities here.

Oh yeah, id say almost as convoluted as battle of Meereen but more confusing then battle of Winterfell or the tournament at the Vale

14 hours ago, Groo said:

Are all the kids in one spot or are they spread out? If they're in one spot who controls them?

Presumably, and presumably Bowen, he is head steward after all

14 hours ago, Groo said:

What if brothers loyal to Jon have them?

Do they exist? Like, at CB? No Grenn or Pyp, Edd or Sam. 

The new wildling recruits like Leathers seem loyal but are there enough of them? But they might allianate both southern crows and freefolk

14 hours ago, Groo said:

What if in the chaos the wildings seize Selyse and want to start trading hostages? What if they don't seize Selyse but tell her they want to march on Winterfell to help Stannis? Would she let Bowen stop them from helping Stannis?

I don't think either will happen, Selyse got muscle and I don't think she can get touched that easily and the wildlings have no hate for Bolton nor love for Stannis, only respect for Snow.

 

3 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

That isn't how a LC is elected, there is an... Election, remember? 

For sure but when the old bear died Snow and later Slynt stepped up as defacto leader of the wall until Mallister and Pyke were able to congress an election, so I assume something like that will play out again.

Also Mallister and Pyke barely didn't murder each other last time, thanks to Sam the election ended quickly and in favor of Snow, but now, election looks dark. About as dark as pre-election 

 

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Not the northern lords who are still at Castle Black

Who?

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39 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

For sure but when the old bear died Snow and later Slynt stepped up as defacto leader of the wall until Mallister and Pyke were able to congress an election, so I assume something like that will play out again

For sure, for a time. But I don't find it likely the NW accepts a murdering, mutineer as even a defacto leader. 

40 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Also Mallister and Pyke barely didn't murder each other last time, thanks to Sam the election ended quickly and in favor of Snow, but now, election looks dark. About as dark as pre-election

Oh yeah, things are gonna get messy. 

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24 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Flint and Norrey were presumably still at Castle Black when Jon was stabbed. 

Ahh.

Theyre with Stannis demanding Theons head in twow excerpt, well the fighting men at least.

25 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

When Wun Wun loses his ish on Ser Patrek, Jon notes that men were pouring out from the surrounding towers, and he sees northmen amongst them.

The old men who are at the wall and not Winterfell or their home probably won't back Jons murderers true, but they certainly won't back Tormund or Meli (sworn enemies and all) who were Jon's main allies

15 minutes ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

For sure, for a time. But I don't find it likely the NW accepts a murdering, mutineer as even a defacto leader. 

NW no. CB, maybe. Last election wasn't that long ago where Jon was made LC by the two adjacent castles, CB largely voted for antiSnow Janos

17 minutes ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

Oh yeah, things are gonna get messy. 

Definitely, messy and bloody. Hopefully through the carnage of it all the whole wall falls with them. Or at the least the NW gets drastically altered

(Lol ive been pretty destructive lately, IT, DK, The Wall. Lol, I don't think Ive always been like this)

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1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Theyre with Stannis demanding Theons head in twow excerpt, well the fighting men at least.

So there are Flints and Norreys marching with Stannis, along with Hugo Wull and Morgan Liddle. But at Castle Black, we have both the Flint, Torghen, and the Norrey, Brandon. Those two are too old to march, so they sent along sons and grandsons with Stannis. These two came to Castle Black with small retinues, one wetnurse each for Monster, and were there when Alys Karstark and Sigorn got hitched. Jon spoke to them atop the Wall after he met with Tormund and negotiated his and the wildlings' passage south of the Wall.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

The old men who are at the wall and not Winterfell or their home probably won't back Jons murderers true, but they certainly won't back Tormund or Meli (sworn enemies and all) who were Jon's main allies

I disagree with you from a practical standpoint. 

If the Flint and the Norrey are aware of Robb's will, which I think they very likely are, then the Bowen Marsh didn't just shank the lord commander of the Night's Watch, but also their king. All these people banding together for a common cause to take down a bunch of mutineers makes sense to me.

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31 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

So there are Flints and Norreys marching with Stannis, along with Hugo Wull and Morgan Liddle. But at Castle Black, we have both the Flint, Torghen, and the Norrey, Brandon. Those two are too old to march, so they sent along sons and grandsons with Stannis. These two came to Castle Black with small retinues, one wetnurse each for Monster, and were there when Alys Karstark and Sigorn got hitched. Jon spoke to them atop the Wall after he met with Tormund and negotiated his and the wildlings' passage south of the Wall.

Word, "I'm still a son of Eddard Stark" I know what guys your talking about. (I use the quote in my poor Theon discussions)

33 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I disagree with you from a practical standpoint. 

Most do.

34 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

If the Flint and the Norrey are aware of Robb's will, which I think they very likely are

Why would they be? They didn't march with Robb, that's the whole reason they were available to Stannis

36 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

All these people banding together for a common cause to take down a bunch of mutineers makes sense to me.

That's not what happened after Robert. Like, these guys can't even make common cause to fight the apocalypse

Idk, I see infighting galore. And I think old man Flint and Norrey are more likely to murder the hostages then stand with their fathers

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5 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

No one will side with Bowen. Not the northern lords who are still at Castle Black, nor the wildlings and especially not Melisandre.

Just about all of the black brothers will understand why Bowen killed Jon.  Samwell would have too if he had been around. The northern lords are not happy with the Karstark-Wildling marriage. Jon made that wedding happen.  His only sympathy will come from the Wildlings.  

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2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Why would they be? They didn't march with Robb, that's the whole reason they were available to Stannis

I'm confused by this. I'm not sure I understand what you mean. I could be very wrong, in which case, you have my apologies, but I think you might be confusing characters marching with Stannis with the two clansmen leaders who are at Castle Black. I have a characters tracker that I put together some time ago. 

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Idk, I see infighting galore. And I think old man Flint and Norrey are more likely to murder the hostages then stand with their fathers

Infighting is entirely possible. Definitely can't rule it out, but the wildlings outnumber pretty much all the others at Castle Black. 

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While I think "betrayal" is a bit inaccurate, I have no interest in semantics, merely in analyzing the aftermath of the attack on Jon. 

A lot depends on how well-prepared Marsh and company were.  My impression is that they were caught by surprise by Jon's announcement and were nowhere near ready to act.  If that is the case, it is unlikely there will be effective follow-up.

Most likely, there will be a great deal of confusion.  Fast thinking and force of arms will likely carry the day.  I don't recall how many rangers are present, but if there are very many, I would expect them to win, and they generally support Jon.  Melisandre and Stannis’s men, as well as the wildlings, could help carry the day.  In the Shieldhall the wildlings seriously outnumbered the Nights Watch men, (5 to 1). 

Essentially, unless Marsh's conspiracy is further along than I think it is, he's going to lose.  Even those present who are unhappy with Jon are unlikely to take action under the circumstances, unless there was pre-planning, which I doubt. 

Most likely, a Jon loyalist will take temporary charge.  My suspicion is that Jon is not actually dead, just severely injured, so will remain LC.  I expect Jeyne Poole and the banker, with Stannis’s escort, to arrive shortly.  Most likely, they will continue on to Braavos, especially with Ramsay apparently on the warpath. 

I expect the Others to attack sooner rather than later, and the NW will be monumentally unprepared for their arrival. 

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1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I'm confused by this. I'm not sure I understand what you mean. I could be very wrong, in which case, you have my apologies, but I think you might be confusing characters marching with Stannis with the two clansmen leaders who are at Castle Black. I have a characters tracker that I put together some time ago. 

Iirc the mountain clans (clansmen leaders sounds too non PC for my taste lol) only make an appearance in adwd. They call Asha a cunt and wear ski shoes. Right? 

After Deepwood some went to Jon but most headed to Winterfell?

(Character tracker is cool! Nice work! I couldn't find the mountain folk but I only looked at CB)

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Infighting is entirely possible. Definitely can't rule it out, but the wildlings outnumber pretty much all the others at Castle Black. 

Word. Although even in that section they are still divided. Selyse has the most steel though but the NW has legitimacy.

The ones who bring the least to the table are the old men with walking canes

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