Immediate consequences of Jon's betrayal of the NW

[Nevets]

While Tommen may not be the rightful ruler of Westeros, he is pretty much universally regarded as such be the people there  including in the Nights Watch.  That their representatives in the North are psychopaths is a problem.  You don't want them around, but getting into an open conflict with the Crown's representatives is not a good idea, especially for an organization that attempts to maintain neutrality, like the Nights Watch.  Unfortunately, conflict has become inevitable. 

It should be noted that Jon did not set out to pick a fight with the Boltons.  He essentially sent out a covert op with the objective of rescuing his sister, who had apparently escaped the Boltons and was hiding in the wilderness.  If all had gone according to plan, she would have been whisked off to Braavos or somewhere with no one the wiser.  Unfortunately  things did not go according to plan. 

Now, thanks to Mance, Ramsay thinks Jon is his enemy and out to get him.  That probably wasn't true before; it certainly is now, and Jon is forced to respond. 

Marsh may have had legitimate concerns about Jon's wildling policies and his relationship with Stannis, which Jon did a poor job of responding to, but that still doesn't justify his assassination attempt.  And now things are a mess and will probably get worse before they get better, if GRRM keeps to his form.

[SeanBeanedMeUp]

On 5/17/2022 at 3:15 AM, Rondo said:

Mellisandre and Val are the ones who are evil enough to murder Shireen.  The NW members are good people for the most part.  

They just killed Jon Snow. The man who has been doing his damn best to keep the group together.

Also like I said if they really believe Ramsay is going to head to Castle Black they’re going to try to appease him knowing his reputation. And killing Shireen might be one of the things done.

[the trees have eyes]

10 hours ago, Nevets said:

Now, thanks to Mance, Ramsay thinks Jon is his enemy and out to get him.  That probably wasn't true before; it certainly is now, and Jon is forced to respond. 

Everyone believes Jon to be the son of Ned Stark.  He has a target painted on his chest the moment Roose / Ramsay supplant the Starks.  Whatever he does there are people who will look to him for leadership or see him as a threat.  House Mormont's response to Stannis that they know no king whose name is not Stark (sic) shows this.

Jon's position with the Boltons in charge is pretty much the same as Gendry's in KL after Robert's death with Cersei on the hunt for any of Robert's offspring: fight, flight or die.

[JamesRiverside]

10 hours ago, Nevets said:

Now, thanks to Mance, Ramsay thinks Jon is his enemy and out to get him.  That probably wasn't true before; it certainly is now, and Jon is forced to respond. 

 

Jon absolutely is the enemy of Ramsey and the Boltons. Their claim to the North rests on Ramsey's marriage to "Arya", who as far as the wider world is aware is the last trueborn child of Ned Stark left standing.

Jon Snow can blow this claim to smithereens because he would know that Ramsey's bride is not his sister.

It is very much in the Bolton interest that Jon Snow be dead.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

On 5/18/2022 at 8:25 PM, Nevets said:

It should be noted that Jon did not set out to pick a fight with the Boltons.  He essentially sent out a covert op with the objective of rescuing his sister, who had apparently escaped the Boltons and was hiding in the wilderness.  If all had gone according to plan, she would have been whisked off to Braavos or somewhere with no one the wiser.  Unfortunately  things did not go according to plan. 

Jon ordered his subordinate, Mance, to carry out an illegal mission.  Mance killed people and violated guest rights in the process of obeying Jon's orders.  It's Jon's fault. 

[James West]

@the trees have eyes

Bowen Marsh has a good understanding of the roles and duties of the Watch.  Jon's understanding is almost as good.  The main difference between the two is dedication to duty and fitness for command.  Those things which Jon never had.  While Jon may have began with the idea of saving mankind, he took the wrong turn after his little sister married Ramsay.  He could no longer function as a man of the night's watch because he was an emotional man who was too loyal to the Starks to be any good at commanding an army who came from many different backgrounds.  Jon was an unfit basically.  It was mistake to vote him to lead the Watch.  Jon is incapable of objectivity.  He's too emotionally bound to the Starks.  To Arya more than the others.  Bowen Marsh is the better man in those last chapters.  He understood the true duties of the Watch. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

19 hours ago, James West said:

@the trees have eyes

Bowen Marsh has a good understanding of the roles and duties of the Watch.  Jon's understanding is almost as good.  The main difference between the two is dedication to duty and fitness for command.  Those things which Jon never had.  While Jon may have began with the idea of saving mankind, he took the wrong turn after his little sister married Ramsay.  He could no longer function as a man of the night's watch because he was an emotional man who was too loyal to the Starks to be any good at commanding an army who came from many different backgrounds.  Jon was an unfit basically.  It was mistake to vote him to lead the Watch.  Jon is incapable of objectivity.  He's too emotionally bound to the Starks.  To Arya more than the others.  Bowen Marsh is the better man in those last chapters.  He understood the true duties of the Watch. 

Do tell where in the 'duties' of the watch it's said to cause a mutiny & murder your LC. 

[sifth]

35 minutes ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

Do tell where in the 'duties' of the watch it's said to cause a mutiny & murder your LC. 

And even that, he screwed up, by not doing it in a smart and creative way. He just walked out to the yard with a bunch of his friends and stabbed his boss. Truly a man of cunning genius.

[Moiraine Sedai]

2 hours ago, sifth said:

And even that, he screwed up, by not doing it in a smart and creative way. He just walked out to the yard with a bunch of his friends and stabbed his boss. Truly a man of cunning genius.

Jon put them in a state of emergency. Marsh had no time to plan a more elegant solution to fire Jon.  Jon gave his speech. Which is an admission of guilt and wrongdoing. He left the gathering to begin his attack on the Boltons. Marsh and Co. had to act quickly.  The crazed giant gave them the needed opening to isolate Jon and remove him. 

[the trees have eyes]

22 hours ago, James West said:

@the trees have eyes

Bowen Marsh has a good understanding of the roles and duties of the Watch.  Jon's understanding is almost as good.  The main difference between the two is dedication to duty and fitness for command.  Those things which Jon never had.  While Jon may have began with the idea of saving mankind, he took the wrong turn after his little sister married Ramsay.  He could no longer function as a man of the night's watch because he was an emotional man who was too loyal to the Starks to be any good at commanding an army who came from many different backgrounds.  Jon was an unfit basically.  It was mistake to vote him to lead the Watch.  Jon is incapable of objectivity.  He's too emotionally bound to the Starks.  To Arya more than the others.  Bowen Marsh is the better man in those last chapters.  He understood the true duties of the Watch. 

I think the problem with finding a common language or understanding on what's happening in the NW stems from essentially different readings of the characters and motivations of those involved.

The "For the Watch" argument, as best I understand it, sees the NW in an heroic light, men of honour serving with dignity as the knights in black to defend civilization from the terrible wildlings.  It seems a fairly partial reading to me and has a kind of band of brothers appeal to it but it's essentially an institutionalist view with the NW having both a vital duty and a glorious purpose to fulfil, provided it's sacrosanct nature is preserved by strict neutrality from politics in the 7K. Slynt / Thorne / Marsh  are seen to some degree or other as protagonists in that they are trying to preserve the NW's duty to allow if to fulfil it's mission.  Enter stage left, Jon, a man who puts at risk this vital purpose so our heroes act to preserve the NW.  Exit stage right, Jon.

I disagree with almost all of that.  The purpose of the NW is to defend the realms of men from the Others & wights, a purpose they have forgotten and, on rediscovery of that purpose, Mormont so memorably said to Sam "You don't build a thousand foot wall to stop savages in skins from stealing women".  The more limited and time-serving members of the NW cannot abandon a lifetime's hostility to the wildlings and seem more intent on keeping as many of them as possible north of The Wall, as seen in Jon's confrontation with Marsh and the latter's indifference as to how many wildings might die at Hardhome and be raised as wights.  In short Jon has the vision to see what the NW's true purpose is and is versatile enough to work towards that while Marsh can only think of preserving what tiny ineffective fragment of the NW remains because that's what a large part of his life has been dedicated to.

And of course all of Slynt, Thorne and Marsh are hip deep in the politics of the 7K, receiving correspondence from Cersei and Tywin and acting as their surrogates.  The Lannisters care not a hoot for the NW and consider any difficulties at The Wall a good way of punishing the North for it's rebellion.  It is they who see Jon as a threat and determine to neutralise him, a similar view taken by the Boltons.  Given Marsh's opposition to Jon's wildling policies, the veiled hostility from the IT and the open threat from Ramsay provide the excuse for him to assassinate Jon.

What Marsh missed and where two groups of people talk past each other is that the NW is virtually annihilated.  It's purpose was to guard The Wall until forces could come up from the south to assist with dealing with the threat.  As it turns out forces came from both the north - the Wildlings - and the south - Stannis - and Jon has gone about using both to hold The Wall.  Preserving the NW is unimportant except emotionally to the NW members themselves, preserving the realms of men from the existential threat of The Others is everything.  In order to preserve the NW as he sees it Marsh has endangered the far greater purpose of defending mankind by undermining Jon's whole coalition.

The NW just isn't that important at this point in the story.  The coalition to defend The Wall is.

[Bowen 747]

On 4/26/2022 at 5:49 PM, Rondo said:

Lord Commander Jon Snow betrayed the NW and dragged the ancient Brotherhood into conflict with Roose Bolton.  The immediate consequence is chaos within Castle Black.  This unrest will spread to the other forts on the wall and will lead to a divided Brotherhood.  While most will agree with Bowen Marsh, there will undoubtedly be some who will disagree with the assassination of their lord commander.  Regardless of how erratic and incompetent Jon was, he was their elected lord commander.  What will happen shortly after Jon takes his last breath:

1. Wun the Giant will be killed but not without trouble.
2. Bowen Marsh will take over as the interim Lord Commander.  He will organize Castle Black but the wildlings will not be placated.
3. I do not think Bowen and the Brother will be able to stop the wildlings from leaving the castle to attack the Boltons.
4. The Weeper and his people will come calling just when the castle is in disorder.

What else?

The wildlings will not be placated if Bowen Marsh becomes Lord Commander but they will not hang around to do anything about it.  The wildlings will leave the wall.  Bowen will call for an immediate election and he will be voted to replace Jon Snow.  

[James West]

On 5/22/2022 at 10:12 AM, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

Do tell where in the 'duties' of the watch it's said to cause a mutiny & murder your LC. 

Jon had gone beyond illegal with what he has been doing for Arya.  Jon's conduct was treason.  Treason to the watch and a betrayal of everything the watch has stood for.  What he was going to do was far more wrong.  Bowen Marsh is an honest man who was put in a terrible position because of his idiot lord commander.  Bowen Marsh had no personal interest other than to stop an atrocity.  

[spearson]

You guys really get into the nitty gritty of the situation,  but is it important?

Couple important things (I think anyways):

@Nevets on page 1, 

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I expect the Others to attack sooner rather than later, and the NW will be monumentally unprepared for their arrival.

 

The day of Jon's last chapter is filled with the same hints about the weather as the lead up to the attack on the Fist.  Mel's comments about how cold it is in her vision as well as comments from Tormund insinuating that the Others are just out in the tree line beyond the wall.  And in Sam's first chapter of Feast (which aligns with ADWD) he notes how the weather is so similar to the Fist.

@three-eyed monkey on page 2 pointed out a certain wordage from ADWD

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but they cannot pass so long as the Wall stands strong and the men of the Night's Watch are true.

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The monsters cannot pass so long as the Wall stands and the men of the Night's Watch stay true, that's what Old Nan used to say

This does not exist in previous thoughts from ASOS:

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On the other side were monsters and giants and ghouls, but they could not pass so long as the Wall stood strong

Quote

he remembered Old Nan saying, but they cannot pass so long as the Wall stands strong

 

What was the reason for GRRM to add that extra little wordage in ADWD?  It leads me to believe that things just might go terribly wrong at Castle Black immediately after Jon's thinks about feeling the cold (because it's not the cold of death, but the absolute cold of the Others), and a lot of what's getting debated here isn't even going to matter.

[SeanF]

On 6/1/2022 at 2:19 AM, James West said:

Jon had gone beyond illegal with what he has been doing for Arya.  Jon's conduct was treason.  Treason to the watch and a betrayal of everything the watch has stood for.  What he was going to do was far more wrong.  Bowen Marsh is an honest man who was put in a terrible position because of his idiot lord commander.  Bowen Marsh had no personal interest other than to stop an atrocity.  

Marsh wanted to suck up to Kings Landing and he hated the Free Folk.  There was no good motive for his actions.  And what has the Watch stood for in the recent past?  Allying with the Others against the living.

[Tagganaro]

13 hours ago, SeanF said:

Marsh wanted to suck up to Kings Landing and he hated the Free Folk.  There was no good motive for his actions.  And what has the Watch stood for in the recent past?  Allying with the Others against the living.

Jon calls out Marsh for exactly this and Marsh has no response.  Just stands there with a red face because he knows it's true.  Jon literally quotes the NW vows and asks Marsh about defending the realm of men and Marsh can't say anything back haha.  Marsh would rather the entirety of the wildlings be exterminated and join the Others than he would save the wildlings.  

Any character worth a damn thinks Marsh is an idiot and that's putting it kindly.  Tyrion thinks so.  Mormont calls him like a bitter old man or something.  Mance is ecstatic and thinks he's won the battle at the Wall when he hears Marsh might be in charge.   Stannis has no respect for him.  There is not a single important character who has anything remotely kind to say about Marsh.

[SeanF]

54 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

Jon calls out Marsh for exactly this and Marsh has no response.  Just stands there with a red face because he knows it's true.  Jon literally quotes the NW vows and asks Marsh about defending the realm of men and Marsh can't say anything back haha.  Marsh would rather the entirety of the wildlings be exterminated and join the Others than he would save the wildlings.  

Any character worth a damn thinks Marsh is an idiot and that's putting it kindly.  Tyrion thinks so.  Mormont calls him like a bitter old man or something.  Mance is ecstatic and thinks he's won the battle at the Wall when he hears Marsh might be in charge.   Stannis has no respect for him.  There is not a single important character who has anything remotely kind to say about Marsh.

Marsh is a wanker.  Let Melisandre give him to R’hllor.

[Roswell]

On 5/9/2022 at 9:58 PM, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

How is he duty bound to stop them? 

He is a soldier of the Watch.  The Wildlings are about to attack Lord of the North Roose.  His crooked commanding officer, Jon Snow, ordered the Wildlings to attack.  Arya, fake or not, is not worth the cost of destabilizing the wall and starting a war with the Warden of the north. 

[sifth]

2 hours ago, Roswell said:

He is a soldier of the Watch.  The Wildlings are about to attack Lord of the North Roose.  His crooked commanding officer, Jon Snow, ordered the Wildlings to attack.  Arya, fake or not, is not worth the cost of destabilizing the wall and starting a war with the Warden of the north. 

The Lord of the North who is a psychopath who enjoys rapping people and skinning others alive. What a true hero of the people Bown Marsh is. Whatever would The Watch do, without such a paragon of good. 

[SeanF]

6 hours ago, sifth said:

The Lord of the North who is a psychopath who enjoys rapping people and skinning others alive. What a true hero of the people Bown Marsh is. Whatever would The Watch do, without such a paragon of good. 

Honestly, these arguments in favour of Bowen Marsh and the Boltons are as bizarre as those who argue that the Ghiscari slavers are honest patriots, fighting a just war.

[Darth Sidious]

Jon is condemned for a very good reason. He broke his vows by interfering with the politics of Westeros. He let personal feelings get in the way of justice in the matter concerning Janos and Mance. He commanded another man of the watch to carry out an illegal mission. Jon corrupted then betrayed the watch.