Immediate consequences of Jon's betrayal of the NW

[sifth]

27 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Would Bowen really make a good sacrifice? He doesn't seem to have any king's blood, unless there was a king in house Marsh at some point, or they married another related to a king.

Ohh, I'm not sure if she's going to burn him, but I believe Mel and her followers will make sure Bowen's little rebellion is a very short one. There's a reason she's our second Wall POV.

[Craving Peaches]

1 minute ago, sifth said:

Ohh, I'm not sure if he's going to burn him, but I believe Mel and her followers will make sure Bowen's little rebellion is a very short one. There's a reason she's our second Wall POV.

They might not, but I feel like it is the most likely option. Even if Melisandre herself is ambivalent towards the idea her followers seem very enthusiastic about burning people.

I have read some speculation that she is a POV at the wall because when Jon comes back (if he's dead) he won't be a POV anymore.

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, sifth said:

Yea, but she clearly thinks Jon is important to stopping The Others. He’s constantly showing up in her visions. If Marsh is a treat to saving the world by killing Jon, he won’t be for long.

If he was Gilly's baby then maybe, or Selyses.

 

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

But if he does have control of the children (I can't check because I don't have the book

I can't think of the corresponding quotes to bring up atm either but the head steward is in charge of logistics, so it's naturally his jurisdiction to decide how much they eat, where they sleep, etc 

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

But that still wouldn't stop other watchmen or the Queens men from killing him

But the watchmen in CB were largely and publicly anti snow not long ago, how much could they have changed?

The Queens men won't (well, legally shouldn't) mess with the politics of the NW

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

I thought Ser Patrek was trying to 'steal' Val so he could marry her?

It appears that your right. I hope this scenario is what happened because I appreciate the irony of Jon telling Patrek to steal her

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

Yes, this was a mistake.

Maybe, probably. I mean, what was Sam gonna do? I do think, for the sake of not getting murdered, Jon needed more friends but I also suspect that the mission he sent them on (specifically Sam but probably all of them, although tbh I have no idea where Green Pyp or Edd went) is going to be super important for the longevity of Westeros and even humanity

 

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

This confuses me as well. Maybe someone put him up to it and then promised protection, like Tywin and the Freys with the Red Wedding.

I agree, it's easy to blame Alliser

[Hugorfonics]

41 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I wonder what would happen if Melisandre starts to believe that Jon is Azor Ahai, not Stannis, and she got it wrong. Would she regret that she killed all those people for him?

Nah lol. They were non believers, who cares about them. 

Plus her actions in pumping up Stannis brought her to Snow

[Craving Peaches]

1 minute ago, Hugorfonics said:

The Queens men won't (well, legally shouldn't) mess with the politics of the NW

That's true but Stannis has already messed with the politics of the Watch so they may feel emboldened by this.

2 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

But the watchmen in CB were largely and publicly anti snow not long ago, how much could they have changed?

I think that even if they didn't want Jon as Lord Commander, that doesn't mean they would still be fine with Bowen killing him. Really disliking Jon doesn't necessarily mean they would support Bowen (thought there is definitely some overlap). Also Leathers, a former wildling who is now a watchmen, is close by. I don't think he'd hesitate to execute Bowen for killing Jon.

1 minute ago, Hugorfonics said:

Nah lol. They were non believers, who cares about them. 

Plus her actions in pumping up Stannis brought her to Snow

That's what I thought. But I think it would be interesting to read (for me at least).

[Hugorfonics]

26 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

That's true but Stannis has already messed with the politics of the Watch so they may feel emboldened by this.

I don't think he messed with them that much, he heeded Jon's advise but that's more on Jon then Stannis 

31 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think that even if they didn't want Jon as Lord Commander, that doesn't mean they would still be fine with Bowen killing him. Really disliking Jon doesn't necessarily mean they would support Bowen (thought there is definitely some overlap).

For sure, and while Jon was their brother, so is Bowen. So while I think many will be pissed or confused or whatever they may not be immediately antagonistic either 

35 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Also Leathers, a former wildling who is now a watchmen, is close by. I don't think he'd hesitate to execute Bowen for killing Jon.

That'd probably be his first reaction, but if Jon wasn't popular then Leathers certainly isn't, and I think if he acts in vengeance he too will be cut down (probably through confusion, but maybe on purpose). I don't think Leathers is suicidal.

37 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

That's what I thought. But I think it would be interesting to read (for me at least).

Definitely interesting

[Craving Peaches]

2 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

I don't think he messed with them that much, he heeded Jon's advise but that's more on Jon then Stannis 

I meant before, when he forced them to choose a Lord Commander within a certain time limit, and that he intends to garrison to Watch's castles with his own men. Yeah if I were Jon I wouldn't have given Stannis advice.

5 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

So while I think many will be pissed or confused or whatever they may not be immediately antagonistic either 

That could happen, cooler heads could prevail and decided to give Bowen trial first, but I don't think it's likely because at least 3 people just saw him stab the LC.

[Hugorfonics]

7 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

meant before, when he forced them to choose a Lord Commander within a certain time limit,

I think he was joking, in his Stannis Baratheon way. Like, he never actually gave a certain time or any endorsement or anything. He did lock them all in a room repeatedly but I would say that's minimal interference 

8 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

and that he intends to garrison to Watch's castles with his own men.

I don't see anything wrong with that either, the castles do need to be garrisoned after all, and Stannis begrudgingly accepted that the castles will legally remain part of the NW

10 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Yeah if I were Jon I wouldn't have given Stannis advice.

I would have. Even if it's breaking the NW neutrality and possibly writing the end for the NW and wall. 

I just don't really care about their neutrality, let alone their order or wall. Actually I guess I do care about them, and I'm pretty opposed lol.

13 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

That could happen, cooler heads could prevail and decided to give Bowen trial first, but I don't think it's likely because at least 3 people just saw him stab the LC.

I don't think Bowens trying to cover up his crime, I think he publicly did it so the entirety of CB can be on the same page 

[sifth]

Ohh, I really doubt Bowen Marsh is long for this world. Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if GRRM had some real balls and kept Jon dead, but I just don't believe he will. Up until this point, he's had way too many fake out deaths, when the death happens in the characters POV. That being said, it's a basic rule of writing, that you don't make a cliffhanger, just to show the character fall off the cliff in the very next chapter. So no, Jon very much will be coming back, just on that basic concept alone, the how and when are the question and the same can be applied to Bowen Marsh's life as well. The guy is basically just a throw away villain at this point.

[Julia H.]

Regarding Bowen's survival chances, let me just mention that there is an enraged giant right on the spot whose life had been saved by Jon.

As for whether the assassination was planned, I think the theory that the conspirators, who had already been plotting to kill Jon, were forced to hastily make a new plan because of Jon's sudden change of plan is a very convincing theory. What they were doing was not the original plan, and they probably couldn't take proper steps to ensure their own safety afterwards.

[Craving Peaches]

5 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I don't see anything wrong with that either, the castles do need to be garrisoned after all, and Stannis begrudgingly accepted that the castles will legally remain part of the NW

That's true but I would still count it as interfering, even though it's helpful.

5 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I would have. Even if it's breaking the NW neutrality and possibly writing the end for the NW and wall. 

I just don't really care about their neutrality, let alone their order or wall. Actually I guess I do care about them, and I'm pretty opposed lol.

See I wouldn't have given advice just because I don't like Stannis 

5 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I don't think Bowens trying to cover up his crime, I think he publicly did it so the entirety of CB can be on the same page 

But that just puts him at even greater risk...

I don't think everyone at the watch will ever all be on the same page, but Bowen Marsh certainly isn't the most popular member of the order and there is always the chance that his actions could have a unifying effect and unite everyone by turning them all against him. It seems like an unnecessary risk to take when he could do it in secret. Since Bowen Marsh is a coward I can only assume that he did want to do in in secret but was forced to rush.

[Hugorfonics]

6 hours ago, sifth said:

The guy is basically just a throw away villain at this point.

No way he's making it to the end, agreed. But Bowens been in all these books now and he finally did something exciting, I think he's got to flesh out a bit before he goes.

Also not sure about villain. He's kinda racist and killed Jon but, idk, I'd call him an antagonist. I'd say he's a prong less then Alliser who's a few less then Ramsay who's way less then the Others.

 

3 hours ago, Julia H. said:

, I think the theory that the conspirators, who had already been plotting to kill Jon, were forced to hastily make a new plan because of Jon's sudden change of plan is a very convincing theory

Certainly not bad, but I was thinking, why not just follow Jon to Winterfell and stab him on the way or whenever? If the plan was make it look like an accident, boar hunt mishap, well Ramsay Snow mishaps sound believable too. (It's not a days ride, they'd have to make camp and sleep)

 

56 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

That's true but I would still count it as interfering, even though it's helpful.

Can't really tell the king what to do,  LC Jon and only LC Jon can kinda get away with it, but it's unwise for even the LC to tell him what not to do. And as long as his men do what Jon says I don't think it's interfering. Sketchy but not alarming.

59 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

See I wouldn't have given advice just because I don't like Stannis 

Lol, can't blame you. He's like a somehow worse version of Tywin but with a sense of humor. Although for me a sense of humor goes a long way which is why I rather like him and dislike Tywin

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

But that just puts him at even greater risk...

When the giant is in heat or whatever and they advise is to lower your weapons, well Bowen couldn't have picked a less risky time

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

I don't think everyone at the watch will ever all be on the same page, but Bowen Marsh certainly isn't the most popular member of the order

I don't mean same page like ding dong the witch is dead, and I expect people to get upset, giant too. But not murderously upset. I just meant he wanted it to be in their face.

He's not unpopular, aside from Janos and the joke candidates he was the last to pull out of the race in CB, he definitely has substantial support.

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

there is always the chance that his actions could have a unifying effect and unite everyone by turning them all against him. It seems like an unnecessary risk to take when he could do it in secret. Since Bowen Marsh is a coward I can only assume that he did want to do in in secret but was forced to rush.

I can't get past The Ides of Marsh, which has got to be the greatest phrase this sites ever produced. It really looks like it though, it seems the old order slayed the tyrant in the most public way imaginable. 

I do still agree it's easy to blame Alliser, honestly the fourth knife has to be either him or Satin, nothing else would add to the story. (Benjin? Ramsay? Osmund Kettleblack?)

[Julia H.]

3 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Certainly not bad, but I was thinking, why not just follow Jon to Winterfell and stab him on the way or whenever? If the plan was make it look like an accident, boar hunt mishap, well Ramsay Snow mishaps sound believable too. (It's not a days ride, they'd have to make camp and sleep)

Well, maybe this shows the conspirators are a small group and so secretly following a wildling army to get near Jon does not seem to be a good option for them. And perhaps they didn't want to bump into Ramsay's army. (Jon wasn't necessarily expecting to ride all the way to Winterfell to meet Ramsay. The threats made in the Pink Letter could only be fulfilled if Ramsay was riding to CB with an army.) But, if the decision was really hastily made, they may not have decided on the best option they had. 

[Craving Peaches]

31 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

When the giant is in heat or whatever and they advise is to lower your weapons, well Bowen couldn't have picked a less risky time

I am a bit confused about what you mean here. Yes everyone has lowered their weapons, but all they need to do is raise them again. Wun Wun's gone nuts, just being in the vicinity of him is dangerous. So it is certainly risky. It may be that Bowen couldn't wait for a safer time to do it which is why he struck when he did. But I can't see how it was the time with the least risk.

35 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

He's not unpopular, aside from Janos and the joke candidates he was the last to pull out of the race in CB, he definitely has substantial support

I think him staying in the running so long more shows how stubborn he is than his level of support. I don't have the book but doesn't Bowen eventually merge his votes with Janos Slynt's? If he had substantial support I think we'd see more people involved in Jon's stabbing. But it could be that he has more silent supporters, though I find that unlikely.

41 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

I do still agree it's easy to blame Alliser, honestly the fourth knife has to be either him or Satin, nothing else would add to the story. (Benjin? Ramsay? Osmund Kettleblack?)

I can't see it being Satin. Jon as LC has been very beneficial for him, he is Jon's steward despite his previous occupation, which annoys a few people including Bowen. I don't think it could be Allister as he's away on a ranging, the other people are too far removed from the wall as well...

I don't think it necessarily has to be a named character, it's not like they're really going to live much longer anyway.

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, Julia H. said:

Well, maybe this shows the conspirators are a small group and so secretly following a wildling army to get near Jon does not seem to be a good option for them. And perhaps they didn't want to bump into Ramsay's army. (Jon wasn't necessarily expecting to ride all the way to Winterfell to meet Ramsay. The threats made in the Pink Letter could only be fulfilled if Ramsay was riding to CB with an army.) But, if the decision was really hastily made, they may not have decided on the best option they had. 

Yea maybe

 

28 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I am a bit confused about what you mean here. Yes everyone has lowered their weapons, but all they need to do is raise them again. Wun Wun's gone nuts, just being in the vicinity of him is dangerous. So it is certainly risky. It may be that Bowen couldn't wait for a safer time to do it which is why he struck when he did. But I can't see how it was the time with the least risk.

I was just joking 

29 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think him staying in the running so long more shows how stubborn he is than his level of support. I don't have the book but doesn't Bowen eventually merge his votes with Janos Slynt's? If he had substantial support I think we'd see more people involved in Jon's stabbing. But it could be that he has more silent supporters, though I find that unlikely

Yea when he drops out he endorses Janos. 

I'd think Bowen would have a decent amount of friends, I mean more then three people, and not all would be stewards, the fact that he didn't ask a ranger shows his confidence. Besides the minimum is 4, we don't know the full extent.

36 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I can't see it being Satin. Jon as LC has been very beneficial for him, he is Jon's steward despite his previous occupation, which annoys a few people including Bowen. I don't think it could be Allister as he's away on a ranging, the other people are too far removed from the wall as well...

I don't think it necessarily has to be a named character, it's not like they're really going to live much longer anyway.

I think they probably will. I think it's Satin because Mel said it'd be a betrayal from someone he trusts, as in not Marsh.

And I think it's Alliser because he's a dick

 

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Hugorfonics said:

I was just joking

Ok. Sorry I couldn't tell 

Just now, Hugorfonics said:

Besides the minimum is 4, we don't know the full extent

That's true I just can't really see him having a lot of support due to the illegality of his actions and his lack of co-conspirators. I think there could be more people who are willing to tolerate the attack on Jon but aren't co-conspirators/actually willing to attack Jon themselves. But I really don't think Bowen has that much support, if he did I think he'd have a different plan.

1 minute ago, Hugorfonics said:

I think they probably will. I think it's Satin because Mel said it'd be a betrayal from someone he trusts, as in not Marsh

The thing is that Satin has no good reason to betray Jon, he is advancing under Jon's Lord Commandership(?) and has been given a position he never would otherwise. Bowen Marsh and others have said they see him as unfit for his position because he used to be a prostitute. So it sounds like Satin would not have anything to gain under Marsh or co. as LC, so I don't see why he'd betray Jon for them. He also doesn't seem to have an issue with Jon's wildling policies. So unless they have promised Satin some great reward I just can't see it.

Melisandre's advice to Jon is very vague. Jon and Bowen had their disagreements before but I don't think Jon ever expected betrayal from him. So I think he could count as someone Jon trusted. He seems surprised when he's stabbed. I don't think he would be as surprised if it were Ser Allister.

9 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

And I think it's Alliser because he's a dick

He is but he is also away on a ranging, so unless he snuck back in to Castle Black I don't think it could be him.

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

Ok. Sorry I couldn't tell 

 I'm not that funny 

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think there could be more people who are willing to tolerate the attack on Jon but aren't co-conspirators/actually willing to attack Jon themselves

Yea that's my line of thinking 

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

if he did I think he'd have a different plan.

Like when? I mean when's the best time to kingslay? I guess when Ghosts not around lol. 

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

Commandership(?)

Lol commandership, I like it. But I think it's just command. 

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

The thing is that Satin has no good reason to betray Jon, he is advancing under Jon's Lord Commandership(?) and has been given a position he never would otherwise. Bowen Marsh and others have said they see him as unfit for his position because he used to be a prostitute. So it sounds like Satin would not have anything to gain under Marsh or co. as LC, so I don't see why he'd betray Jon for them. He also doesn't seem to have an issue with Jon's wildling policies. So unless they have promised Satin some great reward I just can't see it.

That's a good point.

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

He is but he is also away on a ranging, so unless he snuck back in to Castle Black

Yea, why not? Jon basically did it, Mance did it like once a week. Alliser straight up says they'll be seeing each other again 

[Craving Peaches]

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Like when? I mean when's the best time to kingslay? I guess when Ghosts not around lol.

So if I were Bowen, a spineless coward, and I wanted to kill Jon, I would wait certainly until Ghost was not there but also as few other people as possible aside from my co-conspirators. So I think a good time to do it would be at night as most people would be sleeping and it would be dark. Something like when the Wight attacked LC Mormont, no one else was around except Jon and I'm assuming my men, who would have the element of surprise, could quickly deal with one or two guards before they raised the alarm. Now as Lord Steward me going to Jon's quarters wouldn't be seen as suspicious, perhaps even with a small retinue, but if I want to avoid blame ideally I should not be seen at all.

Doing it in the courtyard, even with everyone far back and distracted by Wun Wun, is not a good plan as you are at much greater risk, not just of being discovered but also of receiving bodily harm. This is why I think Bowen may have been forced to rush the plan. Perhaps he was going to dispose of Jon in secret but after Jon announced he was going to fight Ramsay, Bowen had to act fast, or Jon would be beyond his grasp, so the element of secrecy was reduced in favour of speed.

[the trees have eyes]

21 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I wonder what would happen if Melisandre starts to believe that Jon is Azor Ahai, not Stannis, and she got it wrong. Would she regret that she killed all those people for him? It would be a similar situation to Loras killing Ser Emmon and Ser Robar when he believed Brienne killed Renly and they let her escape. After he hears Brienne's side of the story and believes that Stannis may be responsible after all, he seems quite regretful that he killed them because they were innocent. Now obviously Melisandre could just not care at all and claim it was still the will of R'hlorr that they all died, or that their death was necessary so that she could find Jon, but I think it would be interesting if she had to admit to her failings in this regard.

Mel will definitely get there and it will be fascinating to see.  I think she'll simply see Stannis as having led her to Jon and her work in converting Stannis to R'hllor as beneficial and necessary for humanity's salvation and R'hllor's glory, not a failure at all.  The casualties are collateral damage and Mel is definitely a believer in the end justifies the means.  Loras killed his friends in grief and rage over his lover's death, a hot-blooded action if ever there was one and he feels remorse later.  Mel is calculating and her killings (and sacrifices) are tactical and considered calmly.  I think she'll just see her mis-diagnosis / failings as bumps in the road to reaching her main goal.

19 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I meant before, when he forced them to choose a Lord Commander within a certain time limit, and that he intends to garrison to Watch's castles with his own men. Yeah if I were Jon I wouldn't have given Stannis advice.

Stannis locked them in The Shield Hall until they elected a Lord Commander.  He also wanted to take over the garrisoning of the abandoned NW castles.  From a distance the first looks like interfering in, even rigging, the election of the next LC and the second would obliterate any image or any vestige of NW neutrality.  A lot is made of NW neutrality as a sacred principle and how Jon breaches it over (F)Arya but if he let Stannis take the castles he would be picking a side for all to see.  The Lannisters and Boltons would have no trouble concluding which side he had chosen.  Jon does pretty well in keeping Stannis at bay.

Stannis is also the only person who turned up after all the requests for help.  There is both a kind of obligation and a coincidence of purpose in Jon helping Stannis obliquely.  This offends the neutrality purists but it seems logical to me.  Whether Jon helps discreetly or not, Stannis's actions and presence explode NW neutrality.

Speaking generally:

I have seen some comments that Ramsay's actions are unknown in The North or at The Wall, him merely being the legitimised son of the Warden of The North.  Ramsay's true nature is known in The North, even if the scale of his depravity is not.  Lady Hornwood's fate is well known (how not?) and Ramsay only lived because he swapped clothes with Reek.  Ser Rodrik believed he had killed Ramsay and brought back his serving man, Reek, who professed his innocence, to await trial for involvement in his master's crimes.

The first few moments after the stabbing are going to be chaotic.  Wun Wun makes for a pretty big distraction and a giant on the warpath is not something I would want to turn my back on.  Leathers could yell at him in The Old Tongue to come and marmalise Marsh or he could rush over to try and keep The Queen's Men from attacking him.  Mel, Val, Selyse are all wildcards who could have a large influence on what happens.  I would love it if we could finally have this scenario play out on page .

 

[Lilac & Gooseberries]

When did Jon betrayed the NW?