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NFL - 2022 Draft and Onward


Maithanet
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I'm open to clever titles, but it seemed like a new thread was needed as the last one is way past 21 pages.

I wanted to talk about this article from 538 last year about how to evaluate a draft.  It basically says that teams are all prettymuch equally bad at picking good players vs bad.  And therefore the true "winners" of the draft are the teams that use their draft picks on premium positions (which will have a significant payoff if you get a pro bowler).  Going further, they say that the worst picks are not the all time busts like Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, but instead the picks that will still be middling choices even if the guy is good.  They have Quenten Nelson as the 4th worst pick since 2010, just because guards don't matter that much and a 6th overall pick should never be used on one. 

Overall, I think there is some merit to this approach, but it is incomplete.  Every team knows that quarterbacks (and to a lesser extent, LT, WR and DE) are the most important position, and they are already adjusting for that.  If Nelson was as dominant as he is but played quarterback he would have been the 1st pick.  Instead he is (arguably) the most dominant offensive player in the league and he was taken 6th overall.  If a team has a LG and an LT that both grade out as a 90 (on whatever scale they're using) they'll take the LT every single time.  The question is if a guard or linebacker or running back is one of the 5 best players in the draft, where should he go?  10th?  20th?  30th?  I would argue it's not lower than that, because at that point you're comparing a top 5 guy against who is probably the 4th best quarterback or 5th best pass rusher in a given class.  That is a really big difference. 

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10 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'm open to clever titles, but it seemed like a new thread was needed as the last one is way past 21 pages.

I was curious to see how long it'd go before a mod closed it.  It hit 21 pages like almost a month ago.

11 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

They have Quenten Nelson as the 4th worst pick since 2010, just because guards don't matter that much and a 6th overall pick should never be used on one. 

Yeah I didn't read the article but any system that rates Quenton Nelson as the 4th worst pick in a decade seems to be fundamentally flawed.  At least if it's trying to be a comprehensive metric.

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That's  why I am concerned a lot of people are projecting the Jets to take Ikem Okwonu.  I think 4 is too high for a Guard.  Sure he can move to Left Tackle and they can try to trade Becton, but I would rather they take Sauce Gardner or an Edge Rusher if Walker/Hutchinson/Thibodeux are available.

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You did Jace dirty Maith, but that's what you get I guess when you put NFL at the end of the thread title... And I agree with DMC, let it ride to see how much we could get away with! 

1 hour ago, grozeng said:

That's  why I am concerned a lot of people are projecting the Jets to take Ikem Okwonu.  I think 4 is too high for a Guard.  Sure he can move to Left Tackle and they can try to trade Becton, but I would rather they take Sauce Gardner or an Edge Rusher if Walker/Hutchinson/Thibodeux are available.

I don't think it's as big of an issue as it used to be to take interior lineman that high if you think they'll become top five at the position. There's more emphasis now on securing the middle as defenses try to get a lot of pressure up the middle right now. 

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I know this is viewed as a weak QB class, but I'm predicting four go in the first and one goes a lot higher than expected. Also, the record for WRs taken in the first is seven. I'm curious to see if this class ties that number.

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I know this is viewed as a weak QB class, but I'm predicting four go in the first and one goes a lot higher than expected. Also, the record for WRs taken in the first is seven. I'm curious to see if this class ties that number.

I've been doing mock drafts today on Pro Football Focus and in 1 mock I had 5 going in the first with Malik Willis going #8 to Atlanta followed by Kenny Picket at 9 to Seattle. I doubt that many will go and at that high, but teams ALWAYS reach for QBs.

A cool tidbit about this 1st round is that 8 teams have multiple picks, the most ever. The Rams approach in full effect.

And...the experts were right, Walker goes 1st. Lions should be running up to pick Hutchinson.

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4 minutes ago, Trebla said:

I've been doing mock drafts today on Pro Football Focus and in 1 mock I had 5 going in the first with Malik Willis going #8 to Atlanta followed by Kenny Picket at 9 to Seattle. I doubt that many will go and at that high, but teams ALWAYS reach for QBs.

A cool tidbit about this 1st round is that 8 teams have multiple picks, the most ever. The Rams approach in full effect.

And...the experts were right, Walker goes 1st. Lions should be running up to pick Hutchinson.

Five seems high, but who knows. If that happens 2-3 teams are grabbing a guy to stash for a year. 

Unrelated, Hutchinson's mom and sister are fine... 

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Assuming the Jets keep this pick, this will be the first time a QB wasn't taken in the top 10 in nearly a decade. In that draft the first QB taken was....EJ Manuel, who probably should have gone in the third round. The best QB in that class, and I cannot believe I'm saying this, was Geno Smith. 

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Steal by Washington. Acquire a second and third this year to drop two spots when there's still a lot of great prospects left. 

ETA: guess it was five spots. Fix your graphics ESPN...

Edited by Tywin et al.
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Ok I still had the draft on while getting high and they have Tony Gonzalez talking about a game that's going to take place on September 15.  Riveting television.

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Fuck. Why? Why??? We built great defenses around an elite safety from ND. Now another elite S from ND is right there and we don't take him? Why God Why?!?!?!?

Woof, that trade return does not impress me at all. 

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10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Fuck. Why? Why??? We built great defenses around an elite safety from ND. Now another elite S from ND is right there and we don't take him? Why God Why?!?!?!?

Woof, that trade return does not impress me at all. 

Yep. Detroit moved up 20 spots essentially for two 2's and a 3. How could you make that trade and not get a future 1?

ETA. Damn, I was in love with Jordan Davis. He is a monster. All the more reason Dallas does the unsexy thing and drafts a guard or center. 

Edited by Trebla
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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Fuck. Why? Why??? We built great defenses around an elite safety from ND. Now another elite S from ND is right there and we don't take him? Why God Why?!?!?!?

Woof, that trade return does not impress me at all. 

That's like the worst trade I've ever seen. You got punked. By a DIVISION RIVAL

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