NFL - 2022 Draft and Onward

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Babblebauble said:

Sure, I'd give him a mid-to-high eighties in Madden based on his physical talents. But he ain't no top ten QB to me. 

 

Idk, he's probably top 10, but at the tail end. His problem is his game is more likely to generate amazing highlights than playoff success. And there's always the looming injury issue with him.

[briantw]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Idk, he's probably top 10, but at the tail end. His problem is his game is more likely to generate amazing highlights than playoff success. And there's always the looming injury issue with him.

Let's see...

Brady
Rodgers
Allen
Mahomes
Wilson
Burrow
Herbert
Jackson
Watson

That's nine.  So I guess the question is, does he rank above Prescott/Stafford?  Either way, I think he's clearly in the top 12 and there's a tier break after that group.  You've got a small tier after with Cousins, Carr, and Ryan (Stafford may actually be on this tier too), and then a bunch of guys who are better fantasy players than NFL players (Jalen Hurts), damaged goods (Mayfield/Wentz/Trubisky), or haven't shown enough to be properly ranked yet (the rooks from last year).  And then, of course, you've got Drew Lock in last place.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, briantw said:

Let's see...

Brady
Rodgers
Allen
Mahomes
Wilson
Burrow
Herbert
Jackson
Watson

That's nine.  So I guess the question is, does he rank above Prescott/Stafford?  Either way, I think he's clearly in the top 12 and there's a tier break after that group.  You've got a small tier after with Cousins, Carr, and Ryan (Stafford may actually be on this tier too), and then a bunch of guys who are better fantasy players than NFL players (Jalen Hurts), damaged goods (Mayfield/Wentz/Trubisky), or haven't shown enough to be properly ranked yet (the rooks from last year).  And then, of course, you've got Drew Lock in last place.

Funny you mentioned top 12 as opposed to top 10. A few years back I complied a list of SB winning QBs over a 25 period and what I found is that a team needs to have a top 12 QB. Guys who were top five in a given year (and Brady makes this complicated because I was looking at the individual seasons) only won around a quarter of the titles, but if you looks at upper third of the league QBs it was 19 out of 25 iirc. 

Looking at the names above, I think Murray is probably better than Wilson, Dak and Stafford and is pretty even with Watson and Jackson. Problem is his injury risk is the highest of every name mentioned and that's why I wouldn't want to pay him.

[dbunting]

45 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Funny you mentioned top 12 as opposed to top 10. A few years back I complied a list of SB winning QBs over a 25 period and what I found is that a team needs to have a top 12 QB. Guys who were top five in a given year (and Brady makes this complicated because I was looking at the individual seasons) only won around a quarter of the titles, but if you looks at upper third of the league QBs it was 19 out of 25 iirc. 

Looking at the names above, I think Murray is probably better than Wilson, Dak and Stafford and is pretty even with Watson and Jackson. Problem is his injury risk is the highest of every name mentioned and that's why I wouldn't want to pay him.

Yeah he is squarely in the 9-15 range of QB's. Hard to put him above Stafford and Wilson since they both have led their teams to rings. The problem is the same, he is due his money and like Dak you have to pay him or start all over again.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Yeah he is squarely in the 9-15 range of QB's. Hard to put him above Stafford and Wilson since they both have led their teams to rings. The problem is the same, he is due his money and like Dak you have to pay him or start all over again.

15 is extreme. He's a tier two QB, not a middle of the road guy. And no, it's not hard to put him over Stafford or Wilson when evaluating them in a vacuum. The Rams team that just won is comparable to the team that made it to the Owl with Goff.  Stafford is working with a lot and is playing on easy mode in that offense. Wilson is declining, he doesn't move as well anymore and is taking a lot of sacks. He might end the season as the fourth best QB in his own division. 

[Jace, Extat]

Stafford is better than Murray. You can put Stafford in any offense and he looks like a #1 pick even if he's spending a decade with the goddamn Lions. 

Murray is a gimmick passer. He can't function outside the spread, and the spread will beat up on shitty poorly coached defenses but not complete, disciplined, teams. 

How Christian Kirk got so much money coming out of this offense remains a mystery to me, Jacksonville notwithstanding.

[briantw]

12 minutes ago, Babblebauble said:

Stafford is better than Murray. You can put Stafford in any offense and he looks like a #1 pick even if he's spending a decade with the goddamn Lions. 

Murray is a gimmick passer. He can't function outside the spread, and the spread will beat up on shitty poorly coached defenses but not complete, disciplined, teams. 

How Christian Kirk got so much money coming out of this offense remains a mystery to me, Jacksonville notwithstanding.

Christian Kirk was also the third best WR in that offense last year.  His contract was totally inexplicable.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

43 minutes ago, Babblebauble said:

Stafford is better than Murray. You can put Stafford in any offense and he looks like a #1 pick even if he's spending a decade with the goddamn Lions. 

Murray is a gimmick passer. He can't function outside the spread, and the spread will beat up on shitty poorly coached defenses but not complete, disciplined, teams. 

Being able to play in more systems doesn't make Stafford better. You love Lamar, apply the same logic. 

30 minutes ago, briantw said:

Christian Kirk was also the third best WR in that offense last year.  His contract was totally inexplicable.

I wonder if teams hate Cleveland or Jacksonville more for the two dumb contracts they did. I lean towards Jacksonville given Murray's guaranteed money.

Ready for the Rosen era? 

[Jace, Extat]

Lamar could function in a traditional offense. He already does. A VERY traditional offense. Like Teddy Roosevelt traditional.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Huh? The Ravens do not run a traditional passing game, they run one that maximizes Lamar's strengths. His ability to move opens up the middle and compensates for his subpar passing outside. 

Kyler has a better arm than Lamar and is only a step slower. If they were the same size Kyler would be the better prospect, but he's not and his injury concerns are far greater than Lamar's.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

 

[Jace, Extat]

Ty, I think Rhom got the joke. Look at it again. VERY traditional...?

...

...

Tough crowd, tough crowd...

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, Babblebauble said:

Ty, I think Rhom got the joke. Look at it again. VERY traditional...?

...

...

Tough crowd, tough crowd...

Yes I got it, in the sense that traditional marriage depending on where we are is either the man buying the father's daughter or the father bribing the man to take his daughter off of his hands.

[Jace, Extat]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Yes I got it, in the sense that traditional marriage depending on where we are is either the man buying the father's daughter or the father bribing the man to take his daughter off of his hands.

You'll always have to pay my friend, no matter where you are. 

[dbunting]

On 7/21/2022 at 9:12 PM, Tywin et al. said:

15 is extreme. He's a tier two QB, not a middle of the road guy. And no, it's not hard to put him over Stafford or Wilson when evaluating them in a vacuum. The Rams team that just won is comparable to the team that made it to the Owl with Goff.  Stafford is working with a lot and is playing on easy mode in that offense. Wilson is declining, he doesn't move as well anymore and is taking a lot of sacks. He might end the season as the fourth best QB in his own division. 

So you value him more on his potential than someone who has proven themselves against top talent and gotten it done, won the actual thing? Funny, when I praised Allen a few years ago on the same premise you mocked me (in my head anyway) and was like, yeah avg white QB who can run...    Why is it you value Murray but not Allen at the same point in their careers? One is bigger, stronger arm and just as good of a runner.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, dbunting said:

So you value him more on his potential than someone who has proven themselves against top talent and gotten it done, won the actual thing? Funny, when I praised Allen a few years ago on the same premise you mocked me (in my head anyway) and was like, yeah avg white QB who can run...    Why is it you value Murray but not Allen at the same point in their careers? One is bigger, stronger arm and just as good of a runner.

Because Allen was bad his first two seasons and showed all the red flags people brought up before he was drafted. His year two to three jump was larger than probably any QB ever.

[dbunting]

6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Because Allen was bad his first two seasons and showed all the red flags people brought up before he was drafted. His year two to three jump was larger than probably any QB ever.

Bad???

His first two seasons he passed for around 56% completion, had 6200 yards combined passing and rush and 47 tds...   In what world is that bad for a rookie and year two QB?  He did that with the ghost of LaSean McCoy at RB and absolute nobody at WR so what did anyone expect him to do?  As soon as he got NFL starting caliber players at WR, year 3, he jumped up the leader board.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, dbunting said:

Bad???

His first two seasons he passed for around 56% completion, had 6200 yards combined passing and rush and 47 tds...   In what world is that bad for a rookie and year two QB?  He did that with the ghost of LaSean McCoy at RB and absolute nobody at WR so what did anyone expect him to do?  As soon as he got NFL starting caliber players at WR, year 3, he jumped up the leader board.

Man don’t add in his rushing stats to inflate what he was doing. His rookie year he threw more Ints than TDs with a completion percentage below 53. His first two seasons he started 27 games, threw for 30 TDs against 21 Ints with the aforementioned combined 56% accuracy with just over 5,000 yards. That’s not good. By comparison Tua has started 21 games so far with 27 TDs against 15 Ints, around 4,500 yards, but with a completion percentage of 66%. If you take his numbers and add six average games to them he is literally better at every metric. And most people think Tua isn’t good. 

 

[dbunting]

45 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Man don’t add in his rushing stats to inflate what he was doing. His rookie year he threw more Ints than TDs with a completion percentage below 53. His first two seasons he started 27 games, threw for 30 TDs against 21 Ints with the aforementioned combined 56% accuracy with just over 5,000 yards. That’s not good. By comparison Tua has started 21 games so far with 27 TDs against 15 Ints, around 4,500 yards, but with a completion percentage of 66%. If you take his numbers and add six average games to them he is literally better at every metric. And most people think Tua isn’t good. 

 

What the actual hell? Why would you not include his rushing numbers? Do you not consider Lamars rushing as a part of his game?  I like debating with you but I feel like you are just phoning this one in! Yeah Murray had better passing stats his first two years, but guess what, He had Fitzgerald and Hopkins (2020) to throw to! Until year three for Allen his best receiver was Cole f'ing Beasley for one of those years!

Fun fact for the day that just happened to read a little while ago, damn cookies and algorithms were triggered and now all i see is Buffalo articles!

Do you know how many QB's in the history of the NFL have had multiple seasons of 35+ pass tds and 5+ rushing tds? Two, Steve Young and Josh Allen.  Only two other QB's have done it in one season, Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson. All three of those other QB's won MVP that season (Young in 94 but not the second time he did it)

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

10 minutes ago, dbunting said:

What the actual hell? Why would you not include his rushing numbers? Do you not consider Lamars rushing as a part of his game?  I like debating with you but I feel like you are just phoning this one in! Yeah Murray had better passing stats his first two years, but guess what, He had Fitzgerald and Hopkins (2020) to throw to! Until year three for Allen his best receiver was Cole f'ing Beasley for one of those years!

 

I would not combine his passing and rushing statistics when evaluating his passing ability, which was Allen's major red flag coming into the draft. There were real concerns that while he could throw the ball a mile he couldn't hit a barn right in front of him, and that concern was legitimate during his rookie year. Year two was a bit better, but still not impressive in anyway. 

He was a bottom third of the league QB after his first two seasons and ended his third season in the top 5. Obviously more talent around him and a better scheme played a big role, but so did his willing to be introspective and realize he needed to be better and clearly put in a lot work. The biggest individual difference for him is that he stopped doing so much dumb shit. He's still good for a WTF play or two in a game, but it used to be a play like that on damn near every drive (at least that I watched). I mean, he threw the ball across his body. 40-50 yards down field. To a FB. In double coverage. That's some next level WTF shit.

Semi-related, how the fuck did Mac Jones make the PB over Allen?