NFL - 2022 Draft and Onward

[briantw]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

They might not have Kyler though. 

 

I'm curious, who is more to blame for the crazy new WR market, Chase or Kirk? Chase has teams believing they're just a stud WR away while Kirk's insane contract effectively ruined the market at least in the short term.

I think it's mostly Kirk, because real stars saw his contract and said, "If that asshole is worth twenty a year, I'm worth thirty," and we quickly saw that some teams weren't willing to pay that kind of money to a WR.

WRs have always been in demand.  They've just never gotten mid-tier QB money before.

The WR craziness in the draft is probably due to Chase, though.  And it tracks that half a dozen NFL teams were dumb enough to draft a WR in the top fifteen just because it worked last year despite the fact that the receivers in this class are significantly lesser as prospects than Chase was. 

Chase was a WR prospect on the level of Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, and Julio Jones.  I know Watkins was a bust and Cooper turned out to be merely really good rather than amazing, but those three guys were all superb prospects and Chase was right on their level.  No one in this draft would be in the top ten.  Maybe not even the top fifteen.  I'm not sure there's a guy this year that's on Smith's level from last year, and I wasn't even a huge fan of his.

Edited May 3, 2022 by briantw

[Tywin et al.]

I don't disagree with the individual points (outside of there not being a guy worth going in the top 10, this draft probably had two of them), but I'm curious how the two influenced each other. Kirk getting paid obviously led to top WRs demanding more, but guys who aren't on that level also expect to get paid. The last two drafts produced two dudes who are already legit top five WRs, and I think a lot of teams would rather risk taking a WR high than pay a second tier WR like he's elite.

[briantw]

36 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The last two drafts produced two dudes who are already legit top five WRs, and I think a lot of teams would rather risk taking a WR high than pay a second tier WR like he's elite.

And that definitely makes sense.

But it's also taking a risk, because most years the first or second WR taken isn't the best one.  Chase was an outlier, and it's rare that we get a prospect who is both so clearly head and shoulders above the rest of his class and then also pans out pretty much exactly as expected.  Justin Jefferson was like the fifth WR in his class taken, and most people had him ranked, at best, as the WR3 behind Lamb (one of the five or so best prospects from the past decade) and Jeudy.  And given where he was drafted, the NFL tended to agree.

Like, would it surprise anyone if George Pickens is the best WR in this class?  It wouldn't surprise me at all.  I had him a tier below the top guys, but the top of this class just isn't anywhere near as good as the top tier the past two years.

Edited May 4, 2022 by briantw

[Tywin et al.]

16 minutes ago, briantw said:

And that definitely makes sense.

But it's also taking a risk, because most years the first or second WR taken isn't the best one.  Chase was an outlier, and it's rare that we get a prospect who is both so clearly head and shoulders above the rest of his class and then also pans out pretty much exactly as expected.  Justin Jefferson was like the fifth WR in his class taken, and most people had him ranked, at best, as the WR3 behind Lamb (one of the five or so best prospects from the past decade) and Jeudy.  And given where he was drafted, the NFL tended to agree.

Like, would it surprise anyone if George Pickens is the best WR in this class?  It wouldn't surprise me at all.  I had him a tier below the top guys, but the top of this class just isn't anywhere near as good as the top tier the past two years.

Yeah, it's all a crapshoot. If I ran a team I'd strongly consider treating WRs like RBs going forward. Draft a guy 2-4 every other year and hope you hit more often than not. 

[DMC]

12 hours ago, briantw said:

Justin Jefferson was like the fifth WR in his class taken, and most people had him ranked, at best, as the WR3 behind Lamb (one of the five or so best prospects from the past decade) and Jeudy.

Lamb and Jeudy were the clear top two WR prospects in 2020, yeah.  I remember I wanted the Niners to pick Kinlaw at 14, but not if Lamb dropped to them.  When Lamb did and they still picked Kinlaw I was pretty pissed - even after they picked Aiyuk.  Shows what I know.

I also think Chase was a much better prospect than any of the 2020 receivers - which is generally supported by him going 5th while Jeudy and Lamb dropped to 15th and 17th.

[briantw]

34 minutes ago, DMC said:

Lamb and Jeudy were the clear top two WR prospects in 2020, yeah.  I remember I wanted the Niners to pick Kinlaw at 14, but not if Lamb dropped to them.  When Lamb did and they still picked Kinlaw I was pretty pissed - even after they picked Aiyuk.  Shows what I know.

I also think Chase was a much better prospect than any of the 2020 receivers - which is generally supported by him going 5th while Jeudy and Lamb dropped to 15th and 17th.

Chase was absolutely the best prospect of the two classes, and probably the best overall WR prospect since Julio.  He had the age adjusted production and he went and tested at an elite level too despite the fact that he would have been a first rounder regardless.  

I do think Lamb was at least in the ballpark, though.  Lamb is probably the second best prospect from the past five years.

I wouldn’t put too much stock in their draft capital differences, though.  Lamb fell because 2020 was an insanely good WR class and so guys fell further than they did in 2021 and this year, both of which were much weaker classes on the whole.  Like five guys were drafted this year ahead of where Lamb went and not a single one is on his level as a prospect.  It’s a weak class and teams are thirty for WR, so they reached. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by briantw

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, briantw said:

Lamb fell because 2020 was an insanely good WR class and so guys fell further than they did in 2021 and this year, both of which were much weaker classes on the whole.  Like five guys were drafted this year ahead of where Lamb went and not a single one is on his level as a prospect.  It’s a weak class and teams are thirty for WR, so they reached.

Well, I'd say the key difference was the 2021 class was more top-heavy than 2020.  Still, I think the difference in picks is illustrative as 2020 was kind of odd in no WR being viewed as a home run, top 10 pick.

[DMC]

Deebo re-followed the Niners on Instagram.  If you're wondering, yes, I feel very stupid that I'm encouraged by this and it now constitutes news.  I may hate myself, but I hate the world more.

[Rhom]

12 minutes ago, DMC said:

Deebo re-followed the Niners on Instagram.  If you're wondering, yes, I feel very stupid that I'm encouraged by this and it now constitutes news.  I may hate myself, but I hate the world more.

Funny.  I sent a tweet that had that news into it to my brother this morning and said "I am saddened that this now constitutes news."  

 

[DMC]

Just took a look at Todd McShay's 2023 mock draft.  He's got 5 QBs going in the top 9 picks.  CJ Stroud (OSU) at 1, Bryce Young (Alabama) at 2, Anthony Richardson (Florida) at 6, Will Levis (Kentucky) at 8, and Tyler Van Dyke (Miami) at 9.

[DMC]

Oh, finally, saw that that the Niners and Vikings are finalizing joint practices during training camp.  Not too newsworthy, but I just hope the Niners don't play down to the competition.

[Rhom]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

Oh, finally, saw that that the Niners and Vikings are finalizing joint practices during training camp.  Not too newsworthy, but I just hope the Niners don't play down to the competition.

This is it!  This is Shanny the Younger's chance to finally get on the field with Captain Kirk again!!!!

[Tywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

This is it!  This is Shanny the Younger's chance to finally get on the field with Captain Kirk again!!!!

Someone in HR needs to remind Kyle that it's not okay to lecherously stare at Kirk. He's not getting his initials tattooed on him like Sims did.  

[Tywin et al.]

The Raiders experiencing even more turmoil? No, say it's not so...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33869223/dan-ventrelle-says-las-vegas-raiders-owner-mark-davis-ignored-allegations-hostile-work-environment-ousted-went-nfl

[Tywin et al.]

 

[Rhom]

 

[DMC]

@Rhom - wondering if you've been following the recent "Niners are underwhelmed by Lance" chatter.  Saw this speculation that the source of that was Rich Scangarello.  Scangarello, of course, was the Niners QB coach last year who has since moved on as UK's new offensive coordinator.  Recent comments strongly suggest he preferred the Niners had drafted Mac Jones over Trey Lance (which begs the question why Shanahan wasted Lance's rookie year with a QB coach that didn't believe in him, but I digress).

Anyway, between your own stated concerns about Lance and the Niners/UK similarities, I have to ask the obvious question - are you, in fact, Rich Scangarello?

Edited May 10, 2022 by DMC
Link

[Rhom]

55 minutes ago, DMC said:

@Rhom - wondering if you've been following the recent "Niners are underwhelmed by Lance" chatter.  Saw this speculation that the source of that was Rich Scangarello.  Scangarello, of course, was the Niners QB coach last year who has since moved on as UK's new offensive coordinator.  Recent comments strongly suggest he preferred the Niners had drafted Mac Jones over Trey Lance (which begs the question why Shanahan wasted Lance's rookie year with a QB coach that didn't believe in him, but I digress).

Anyway, between your own stated concerns about Lance and the Niners/UK similarities, I have to ask the obvious question - are you, in fact, Rich Scangarello?

Cheese it... they're onto me!

[Tywin et al.]

I don't think I'm being hyperbolic when saying this is a reason to take someone off of your draft board:

 

[Kalnestk Oblast]

Chris Conte rule part 2 - if Nathan Peterman is associated with your team in any way everything you've done is suspect.

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2022/5/11/23067443/chicago-bears-sign-qb-nathan-peterman-las-vegas-raiders-buffalo-bills-justin-fields-practice-squad