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UK Politics- P0rn, Horn and Local Elections


polishgenius

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20 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Might we also be able to get rid of Starmer as well? Labour not doing as well as they would like.

I feel like, perhaps like happened in New Zealand in 2017, timing Angela Rayner's ascent to leader to have maximum bounce for Labour could significantly benefit their chances in the general. Here Jacinda Ardern was elevated to Labout Leader a mere 8 weeks (I think) before the 2017 election, and it basically got Labour enough of a bounce to change the govt and Labour be the major party in the next coalition. The other thing that benefited Ardern as that the incumbent leader recognised the could not carry Labour to victory, so he resigned as leader. So it was a bloodless and peaceful transition of power. If Starmer fights tooth and nail to keep his job it will be damaging to whoever his replacement may be.

The recent Basic Instinct stoush has really only served to raise Rayner's profile around the country, and she seems from this remote distance and dearth of any real knowledge of her aside from what is posted here to be a very good leadership prospect.

The other difference with NZ Labour's experience is that they were well behind in the polls right up to the day Ardern took the reins. UK Labour is pretty neck and neck or slightly ahead of the Tories at present, or so I believe.

Unless of course there is some other obvious replacement for Starmer other than Angela Rayner. She seems pretty frikken awesome from the perspective of the Labour base of support. Might be a bit scary for the more centrist neo-libs who nonetheless lean towards Labour?

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4 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Might we also be able to get rid of Starmer as well? Labour not doing as well as they would like.

As it's far from all local councils having elections, it's always worth remembering that Labour are defending more than twice as many seats as the Tories (about 3500 to 1500).

  

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Guardian in the US is doing a poor job of covering the results online. It's not on the main page at all. You have to really look for it. Seems odd.

:dunno:

How many people in the US would you really expect to give a shit about local and council elections in the UK?
If you want to find it on the guardian, just go to guardian.com/uk

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1 hour ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I wonder if the gains of the Greens and Lib Dems in these elections will help push the case for Labour working with the other parties with the aim of kicking the Tories out and bringing in PR.   Cos so far Labour have not really gained seats at the same rate.  The vote on the left is very split.

You would hope so; unfortunately I have the impression that Labour would rather stay out of power for another decade than work with the other progressive parties. At this point, with the SNP so dominant in Scotland, Labour and the Lib Dems should seriously be thinking about merging because even if they did decide to introduce PR, the chances are they'd never get enough seats in a GE to push it through. Also, they'd probably end up choosing Alternative Vote then putting it to a referendum (howls of protest from the peanut gallery otherwise) which they'd most likely lose as in 2011. 

PR could only happen if a GE has the Lib Dems holding the balance of power in the Commons again. If Labour won outright, they'd drop any PR ideas like a hot potato. A Lib/Lab ruling coalition might just happen - it could have happened in 2010 had the  Lib Dems not walked into the arms of the Tories - but it could be a long long wait while the progressive vote is split between Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens in England, plus Plaid and the SNP in Wales and Scotland. 

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I don't remember Labour gaining enough seats in 2010 to form a majority with a lib dems coalition.  And without that we would never have a problem referendum.   So I don't blame them too much for joining the Tories and gambling everything on the one chance of any kind on PR happening.   I think they learnt that joining the Tories did not work and won't do so again for at least 20 more years.   But if the referendum even A/V had gone the other way it might have been worth it. 

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22 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I don't remember Labour gaining enough seats in 2010 to form a majority with a lib dems coalition.  And without that we would never have a problem referendum.   So I don't blame them too much for joining the Tories and gambling everything on the one chance of any kind on PR happening.   I think they learnt that joining the Tories did not work and won't do so again for at least 20 more years.   But if the referendum even A/V had gone the other way it might have been worth it. 

They'd have been 10 shy, even adding the SNP & PC wouldn't have been enough to form a majority.

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Quick update on the locals, 75 councils declared (so we're over half-way in England)

Labour +34 seats (2.9% increase)
Conservative -122 seats (18.4% drop)
Lib Dem +59 seats (29.5% increase)
Green +23 seats (143.8% increase)

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7 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Might we also be able to get rid of Starmer as well? Labour not doing as well as they would like.

That would be harsh, esp. since you gave Captain Nonsense two General Elections to lose, and to wreck what was once the red wall. And Starmer's Labour has done alright at the polls. Labour had to defend most seats this time, and they managed to even increase the number. 

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4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

That would be harsh, esp. since you gave Captain Nonsense two General Elections to lose, and to wreck what was once the red wall. And Starmer's Labour has done alright at the polls. Labour had to defend most seats this time, and they managed to even increase the number. 

Yup.

It's local elections, it's only a poll on the ruling party, as the others aren't (quite rightly) campaigning on a manifesto of their own.

The important thing, is that the public is expressing disapproval of the Conservatives, but I'd need a better breakdown than currently available to say if that's dissatisfied tories staying at home, or changing their vote. There's been no real national campaigning, there's no manifestos or promises to the future, and voting in locals is a famously poor guide to voting intentions in nationals.

 

We don't really know what the peak number of council seats would be for any party, to know how close labour were to that before these elections (it would take quite a lot of leg work to find out, so we'd really need a journalist to be interested in finding out) - but they're defending more than twice as many seats as the conservatives are, so have far more to lose (hence I included percentage changes above).

 

We're also about half way through the England count, whilst the other half, the Scots, Welsh and Irish have only just started counting.

The only thing we can really say so far is that it's been a bad day for the Conservatives, and may yet become disastrous, or improve to being a poor day. Lib Dem and Green seem to be viable votes again - at least for local elections. This may translate to GE seats, or it may translate to a split non-tory GE vote, or it may just be that tory voters are protesting by staying home when it doesn't really matter, but will mobilise when the house of commons is up for grabs.

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Yeah these elections are essentially a sign that people are sick of the Tories, but arent quite ready to jump into bed with Labour just yet. Bit like MEP elections when they woukd vote for UKIP, but those votes never really translated into general election votes.

They may return to the Tory fold in thr next GE, or they may hold their nose and vote Laboir to get rid of the Tories

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10 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Yeah these elections are essentially a sign that people are sick of the Tories, but arent quite ready to jump into bed with Labour just yet. Bit like MEP elections when they woukd vote for UKIP, but those votes never really translated into general election votes.

They may return to the Tory fold in thr next GE, or they may hold their nose and vote Laboir to get rid of the Tories

It's hard to see what would bring them back to the Tories. Whoever is in power for the next few years is going to be pretty unpopular as there are going to be large strains on the economy until the global situation turns itself around. The Tories and Boris have proven themselves to be incapable of acting decisively on almost any matter, mostly just look to be in a constant state of chaos and incompetence. There is very little the Tories can really do to arrest the slide, any measures they will have to bring in will be pretty unpopular and they can't hide behind building a big prison in Rwanda to fix it. 

I'd also be a little worried if I was Kier Starmer that it hasn't been a total knockout by Labour, some signs they aren't delivering a clear message to voters either. 

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Tories gain seven seats in Enfield.

On the doorstep, people were unhappy with the incumbent Labour council for installing some truly obnoxious LTN measures around here.

Many said they were voting Tory to get them ripped out. Unfortunately, the Tories didn't gain control of the council, so we're stuck with them.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Quick update on the locals, 75 councils declared (so we're over half-way in England)

Labour +34 seats (2.9% increase)
Conservative -122 seats (18.4% drop)
Lib Dem +59 seats (29.5% increase)
Green +23 seats (143.8% increase)

Update after 85 councils declared

Lab +36 (+2.9%)
Con -139 (-19.3%)
LDs +66 (+30.0%)
Grn +24 (+109.1%)

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49 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Update after 85 councils declared

Lab +36 (+2.9%)
Con -139 (-19.3%)
LDs +66 (+30.0%)
Grn +24 (+109.1%)

That's the "goal differential", what are the + / - for each that results in this net change? Though I am guessing the Greens haven't lost a single seat and probably not the LDs either. Did labour pick up some and lose some? Seems unlikely the Greens took all of the gains from the Cons, seems more credible that they took from Labour, but Labour took more from the Cons.

 

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102 / 200 councils in

Lab +51 (3.6%)
Con -192 (20.5%)
LDs +84 (30.8%)
Grn +36 (120.0%)
SNP +8 (5.2%)

  

15 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

That's the "goal differential", what are the + / - for each that results in this net change? Though I am guessing the Greens haven't lost a single seat and probably not the LDs either. Did labour pick up some and lose some? Seems unlikely the Greens took all of the gains from the Cons, seems more credible that they took from Labour, but Labour took more from the Cons.

It is, yes.

That information would require a reasonably deep dive to obtain unless/until a journalist puts it together for  you.

Here's the raw figures, if you can be bothered though: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2022/may/05/elections-2022-results-live-local-council-england-scotland-wales

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11 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Guardian in the US is doing a poor job of covering the results online. It's not on the main page at all. You have to really look for it. Seems odd.

:dunno:

Not the case when I link to it.  Or when one switches from US to UK version.

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Quote

"A mixed set of results"

- Boris Johnson

Well, that's one way to describe it. It's kind of funny that most of the speculation I've seen has been about whether Keir Starmer will keep his job. I think everyone's just resigned to Boris now. It's like having chronic eczema. 

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24 minutes ago, dog-days said:

Well, that's one way to describe it. It's kind of funny that most of the speculation I've seen has been about whether Keir Starmer will keep his job. I think everyone's just resigned to Boris now. It's like having chronic eczema. 

If Durham Police fine him he’ll probably have to resign given all the pressure he was putting on Johnson and Sunak for Partygate.

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1 minute ago, Maltaran said:

If Durham Police fine him he’ll probably have to resign given all the pressure he was putting on Johnson and Sunak for Partygate.

That would probably take out Rayner too, as she was also there.

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