US Politics: Roe v Wade into the quiet part of the stream

[Fez]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

There will almost certainly be a nationwide ban on abortion if Republicans fully control the government after 2024. However, I doubt that will even be close to worse thing they'll do. I still fully expect them to shred the right to vote. 

Depends on how big the theoretical Republican senate majority is. If it's 57 or 58 or more yeah there's a decent chance they remove the filibuster and do it. But if it's a smaller majority the votes probably won't be there to change rules and Democrats will filibuster just like they do every abortion ban bill when they're the minority.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

53 minutes ago, DMC said:

It's certainly not a given she wins but I'd say she has about a 75% chance, and this is extremely unlikely to change that.  Her support for Roe/Casey isn't anything new at all.  It's always good to remember that she won in 2010 as a write-in candidate.

2010 Was a lifetime ago politically, and the Republican party has become completely warped. She still will enjoy an incumbency advantage, but the base isn't with her anymore, like at all.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

Depends on how big the theoretical Republican senate majority is. If it's 57 or 58 or more yeah there's a decent chance they remove the filibuster and do it. But if it's a smaller majority the votes probably won't be there to change rules and Democrats will filibuster just like they do every abortion ban bill when they're the minority.

Negative. I would gamble they'd ditch the filibuster once they have the bare number of votes and then immediately start to gut voting rights to ensure they maintain said majority. Republicans are now a full blown anti-democratic fascist party, and once you go down that road you'll do everything possible not to lose power. This next decade will not be pretty.

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

2010 Was a lifetime ago politically, and the Republican party has become completely warped.

It really wasn't when it comes to Alaska reelecting Lisa Murkowski.  Most of the electorate that will vote in November voted in the 2010 election.  And the "base" obviously turned on her back then as well considering she lost the primary to Miller.  Again, it'd probably be 50/50 between her and Tshibaka if it was winner take all, but with ranked choice it's very unlikely she loses.

[Mindwalker]

 

[cock_merchant]

It has long been overdue to overturn RvW. Thank you Trump for ensuring a Conservative SCOTUS. This will save lives especially black lives.

[Larry of the Lawn]

1 hour ago, cock_merchant said:

It has long been overdue to overturn RvW. Thank you Trump for ensuring a Conservative SCOTUS. This will save lives especially black lives.

This is going to kill a bunch of black women.

[SeanF]

2 hours ago, Fez said:

Depends on how big the theoretical Republican senate majority is. If it's 57 or 58 or more yeah there's a decent chance they remove the filibuster and do it. But if it's a smaller majority the votes probably won't be there to change rules and Democrats will filibuster just like they do every abortion ban bill when they're the minority.

Wouldn’t it require a constitutional change, to outlaw abortion nationwide?

[mormont]

I'm very sad for my American friends tonight. This is a tragedy, and whether we knew it was coming or not, that's still true.

It won't save a single life. It'll cause women to live in fear and risk their lives, and for many - particularly the poor and powerless - the risk will work out badly. The rich will simply sidestep the law. This doesn't end abortion, it just hurts the vulnerable.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, SeanF said:

Wouldn’t it require a constitutional change, to outlaw abortion nationwide?

No.

[Kalbear]

32 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Wouldn’t it require a constitutional change, to outlaw abortion nationwide?

Nope!

[Larry of the Lawn]

It's not just Republicans who could get rid of the filibuster for this.  There are 50 Dem Senators plus Murkowski and Collins.  

[karaddin]

One danger I haven't seen mentioned with this is that they're not even content to drive abortions underground making them unsafe, they're very gung ho about identifying and charging women that have abortions, including out of state etc, not to many women that simply miscarry while someone doesn't like them and decides to claim it was an abortion. The part I haven't seen mentioned is that we now have mass data harvesting from our online activity which can do things like claim to identify when someone is pregnant and can certainly identify someone looking for information on abortions, and the government can buy this information without any 4th amendment concerns. 

[ThinkerX]

Between the impending SC decision and the other far-right shenanigans, the GOP could be looking at quite the backlash - maybe enough to cost them the midterms. Possibly ruin their presidential prospects for 2024.  

[Week]

5 hours ago, cock_merchant said:

It has long been overdue to overturn RvW. Thank you Trump for ensuring a Conservative SCOTUS. This will save lives especially black lives.

Source required. What you're likely referring to is a debunked conspiracy theory. As previously mentioned maternal mortality is much higher among black women in the US and risk will increase.

[Morpheus]

4 hours ago, Larry of the Lake said:

It's not just Republicans who could get rid of the filibuster for this.  There are 50 Dem Senators plus Murkowski and Collins.  

Collins is no doubt very disturbed but assumes lessons were learned all around. No regrets, 10/10 SC appointment votes.

 

 

 

 

She doesnt give a shit.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

8 hours ago, karaddin said:

I saw someone discussing the (very likely attempt at least) upcoming overturn of Obergfell and confidently stating that they'd only block new marriages, not dissolve existing ones and I've got no idea where that confidence comes from. I could see that approach with anti miscegenation as there's a lot of gross complexity to deciding who is what race, but same sex marriage has a very clear, easily identifiable line and they are utterly convinced these are both illegitimate and an affront to their own marriages. They aren't going to just leave the existing ones.

It's disgusting all the way around--and given the blatant rise in extreme hatred toward LGBTQ+ groups from places like Florida, you'd have to be naïve to think existing marriages are safe.

I'm at a loss on what to do.

Biden may be severely hampered by Manchin and Sinema, but he hasn't even made an issue of expanding and packing the court. It's infuriating. Imagine the backlash we'd be hearing right now to Dems who blocked that.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

8 hours ago, Fez said:

Depends on how big the theoretical Republican senate majority is. If it's 57 or 58 or more yeah there's a decent chance they remove the filibuster and do it. But if it's a smaller majority the votes probably won't be there to change rules and Democrats will filibuster just like they do every abortion ban bill when they're the minority.

Can't they cheat their way through reconciliation? I'm sure even the republicans can get creative enough to make this into a budget issue.

[Mindwalker]

19 minutes ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

Biden may be severely hampered by Manchin and Sinema, but he hasn't even made an issue of expanding and packing the court. It's infuriating. Imagine the backlash we'd be hearing right now to Dems who blocked that.

Nonsense, leadership will still blame the Progressives somehow (while endorsing pro-forced birth Dem candidates).

[Ghjhero]

9 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

Cool now do slavery, gay rights and child labor laws

Lots of hysterics out there, but this about sums it up best. If you really believe this, it shows how detached you are from reality. We are not overturning slavery laws lolll, give me a break.