US Politics: Roe v Wade into the quiet part of the stream

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@DMC

@Fez

Politically… if Roe stands after the SCOTUS drops the final holding… what happens?  Right now Democratic voters are fired up and ready to act.  If Roe isn’t overturned will that aid Republicans in November?  Would the anti-abortion Rights people get as fired up as the pro-abortion rights folks are now?

[Ormond]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@DMC

@Fez

Politically… if Roe stands after the SCOTUS drops the final holding… what happens?  Right now Democratic voters are fired up and ready to act.  If Roe isn’t overturned will that aid Republicans in November?  Would the anti-abortion Rights people get as fired up as the pro-abortion rights folks are now?

Well, from what I have read, though Roberts does not want to completely overturn Roe, he would still vote to uphold the Mississippi law. So all the states that have those trigger laws would undoubtedly swiftly pass laws outlawing abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, as the Mississippi law in question does. I would think abortion would still be a much more salient issue in the minds of Democratic and Independent voters, though, especially if the Democrats play up all the Republicans that would now be willing to pass laws without exceptions for rape and incest. 

[HoodedCrow]

I think Republicans should be reminded that their sons or fathers may end up with very long term expensive commitments to be daddies of the unwanted. It used to be a matter of a difficult proof…now it is easy.

[Zorral]

Shades of the American Slave Coast and the Slave Breeding Industry -- and here is the truth that surely all women at least have known all along, ever since the 1980's, if they paid attention.  Women are to be reduced to the status of breeding animals, because that's their only function, beyond, of course, providing every bit of unpaid service and docility to (white) men unquestioningly.

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, HoodedCrow said:

I think Republicans should be reminded that their sons or fathers may end up with very long term expensive commitments to be daddies of the unwanted. It used to be a matter of a difficult proof…now it is easy.

Or on the other end, you could also let them know that if their states ban abortions, a lot of women will just up and leave. Then show them what dating is like in China when there’s way more men than women.

[Zorral]

The farm guys in the midwest have been moaning about this for years already.

Also, men in general may find sex a whole lot less easy to come by, as these later generations of women learn what it means to live without reproductive control of their bodies, which includes being criminalized for having the foundation of contraception declared a crime, to increased difficulty in accessing the other, easier forms of contraception, to having then, their access to work and solvency reduced or even cut off, for being labeled a criminal just about for being 'an unwed mother,' and on and on and on.

The white xtian nationalist males are also already complaining about 'woke' women not wanting to have sex with them.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The white xtian nationalist males are also already complaining about 'woke' women not wanting to have sex with them.

[DMC]

2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Politically… if Roe stands after the SCOTUS drops the final holding… what happens?  Right now Democratic voters are fired up and ready to act.  If Roe isn’t overturned will that aid Republicans in November?  Would the anti-abortion Rights people get as fired up as the pro-abortion rights folks are now?

Well, sure, this is exactly why Roberts wants to effectively - but not explicitly - overturn Roe, he wants to minimize the backlash on the court.  (It's also why the theory that the leak was an effort to lock all five justices into explicitly overturning Roe is the most plausible).  And yeah, I guess this is still a concern after the leak, but Dems - and the media - were/should already be anticipating this possibility.  As this article from December (after the oral arguments) explains:

Quote

So if the justices want to explicitly overrule Roe v. Wade, they can do that. But if they would prefer to abolish the constitutional right to an abortion while maintaining the illusion that Roe has not been overruled, then there are plenty of ways to do that as well.

Ultimately, a decision gutting Roe while leaving it nominally in place would have more or less the same effect as a decision explicitly overruling it. On the day Dobbs is handed down, in other words, supporters of abortion rights should not be sanguine — and Supreme Court journalists should not report that Roe has survived — just because the decision is not explicitly overruled.

The Court could very well hand down a disingenuous decision that burns the constitutional right to an abortion to the ground, while also pretending to preserve some part of Roe.

So, I suppose tactically the Dems emphasize all the states with bills being proposed/enacted that demonstrate Roe is already effectively overturned (especially considering Texas' six-week ban is already in effect), i.e.:

Quote

Out of all the proposed bans, anti-abortion policymakers have been focusing primarily on three types: 15-week bans, “Texas-style” bans and bans designed to be triggered if Roe is overturned.

Bans at 15 weeks of pregnancy

Introduced: 6 in 4 states

Passed at least one chamber: 1 in 1 state—West Virginia (1)

Enacted: 3 in 3 states—Arizona (1), Florida (1) and Kentucky (1)

“Texas-style” bans that rely on a bounty-hunter enforcement mechanism (with a total, six-week or other gestational age ban)

Introduced: 19 in 13 states

Passed at least one chamber: 2 in 1 state—Oklahoma

Enacted: 1 in 1 state—Idaho

“Trigger” bans to quickly prohibit abortion in the state

Introduced: 12 in 9 states

Passed at least one chamber: 1 in 1 state—Oklahoma

Enacted: 1 in 1 state—Wyoming

Anyway, could it blunt the impact/backlash?  Sure, that's obviously what Roberts is hoping.  But I don't think that really changes anything in terms of strategy - the Dems should still go full speed ahead on trying to mobilize voters on the GOP taking away abortion as a fundamental right.

That being said, as I've expressed previously, I remain skeptical how successful this effort will be when it comes to the midterms.  As we just saw, some people actually think the leaked draft just means states will restrict abortion "like they do in Europe," so the Dems can only do so much with an American public this stupid and willfully misinformed.

[DMC]

48 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Or on the other end, you could also let them know that if their states ban abortions, a lot of women will just up and leave.

I think as a warning we show them the South Park scene where the girls break up with the boys en masse (I love how Kenny is just lying there dead in the last shot):

 

[Centrist Simon Steele]

I wonder if it's slightly possible that given the psychopathic far right sudden moves to undo tons of individual rights (education, gay marriages, etc.) could change this leaked decision. I really don't have faith in the Supreme Court, but some small part of me hopes that Roberts can convince one other they can't go through with this now given what is happening. 

I know, I know, stupid pipe dream. Still, if the SC is a branch of right wing politics now, they could realize that upholding RvW would potentially dampen a so-called blue wave.

[Kalbear]

 

[Zorral]

There are at least two generations of US women, who are able to become pregnant, who have no psychic or physical clue as to what it is like to be a woman living in a world without abortion, the foundation of reproductive autonomy of contraception.  Much less what it is like to know whatever one does not to be pregnant is a crime for which anyone can prosecute and anyone can persecute.

Because unless one has lived that way, one cannot know, anymore than I could have known what kind of toll it would take on my heart, soul, mind, career / work decisions, etc., from being at risk in a pandemic ongoing for years and years, and in which the ruling legislative class gives not a shit about my well-being or anyone else's in this condition.  I could have ideas, even a whole factual and correct outline about it, intellectually have a grasp of what it would mean. But the imprint of it still wasn't literally on me, in me, or my life.  Until it was, and has been for years that I've lost and can't get back.

[Zorral]

36 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think as a warning we show them the South Park scene where the girls break up with the boys en masse (I love how Kenny is just lying there dead in the last shot):

 

Ya, let's make this about the poor boys, even though they are at fault for their own brokedupedness.  

[Jace, Extat]

5 minutes ago, Zorral said:

There are at least two generations of US women, who are able to become pregnant, who have no psychic or physical clue as to what it is like to be a woman living in a world without abortion, the foundation of reproductive autonomy of contraception.  Much less what it is like to know whatever one does not to be pregnant is a crime for which anyone can prosecute and anyone can persecute.

Because unless one has lived that way, one cannot know, anymore than I could have known what kind of toll it would take on my heart, soul, mind, career / work decisions, etc., from being at risk in a pandemic ongoing for years and years, and in which the ruling legislative class gives not a shit about my well-being or anyone else's in this condition.  I could have ideas, even a whole factual and correct outline about it, intellectually have a grasp of what it would mean. But the imprint of it still wasn't literally on me, in me, or my life.  Until it was, and has been for years that I've lost and can't get back.

 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Ya, let's make this about the poor boys, even though they are at fault for their own brokedupedness.  

While I take your point, to defend the boys in that episode - they did try to stop the troll, they just failed.  And haven't we all failed at stopping trolls?  Plus they broke all Cartman's stuff for nothing!

[Zorral]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

While I take your point, to defend the boys in that episode

I take your point too. But for quite a while it's been clear that women can't stop this toxic masculinity built around rape and disgust and hatred of women -- only men can.  Which is too damned bad, because that means it will never be stopped because no matter how much men don't like it, it doesn't ultimately affect them, not in any way that impacts their personal lives.  As many women learned, sexism makes life, even for male 'allies', more comfy and easy.  Just like slavery makes life, even for allies who think it is inhumane, more comfy and easy, as Patrick Henry among many others explained.  "Too bad we have it, but the convenience makes our lives so much better, that we can't live without it now."

[gruff one]

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

Shades of the American Slave Coast and the Slave Breeding Industry -- and here is the truth that surely all women at least have known all along, ever since the 1980's, if they paid attention.  Women are to be reduced to the status of breeding animals, because that's their only function, beyond, of course, providing every bit of unpaid service and docility to (white) men unquestioningly.

 

 

Is this the place to be promoting your writings? What's next promoting cotton root?

[Morpheus]

 

[DanteGabriel]

5 hours ago, HoodedCrow said:

I think Republicans should be reminded that their sons or fathers may end up with very long term expensive commitments to be daddies of the unwanted. It used to be a matter of a difficult proof…now it is easy.

Thing thing about these right wing politicians is that they'll have a way to make sure their daughters/nieces/mistresses will still be able to get discreet, safe abortions in some place that isn't as dominated by mouth-breathing Christo-fascism.

[HoodedCrow]

Schwarzenegger had a child that he did not want, any guy might, because one squirt can mean a lifetime. Right wingers just erase women who are unwed, but their sons/brothers/husbands/ fathers could be left with major problems that even suburban women and their relations can’t ignore. Money, money, money talks.