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On 5/22/2022 at 12:14 PM, The Bard of Banefort said:

I’ve always favored “gold shall be their crowns” as a reference to hair, but I’m wondering now if we’ll get a Queen Myrcella between Tommen and Aegon. If both Rhaenyra and Dany are deposed because “bitches be crazy,” then having a clever young queen with lots of potential who is deposed by Aegon (probably through JonCon’s brutality) could soften the blow a bit. She would be a queen who didn’t go mad, but lost because of the cruelty of men. And it would make Aegon more morally grey. 

The show could put Rhaenyra in this situation. She cuts herself on the Iron Throne and immediately men starting whispering about her worthiness. Then you have Larys Clubfoot working in the shadows to spread rumors and dissent. The show could easily make the Shepard be Larys's doing, as was likely the case anyway.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

The vision of the mummer’s dragon leads me to believe that Aegon will be very popular.

Yes, of course, he will be popular. For five minutes, when he takes KL without any bloodshed. Afterwards everything will go downhill.

That is pretty much implied by the simple fact that George uses basically the same words to describe both the Young Dragon in TWoIaF and Aegon in ADwD.

1 hour ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

The Undying may have told Dany to slay the lie, but that doesn’t mean it will go well for her.

It definitely won't go well for the lies she is to slay. And since it is actually pretty unlikely that Daenerys will personally 'slay' Stannis, she might also have no direct hand in Aegon's demise - assuming he is going to die at all.

1 hour ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Quaithe also told her not to trust Quentyn and that was bad advice.

Quaithe made no prophecy, she just saw who was on their way to Daenerys at the time she contacted her. And she does have her own plans for Daenerys, presumably, which means she has her motives why she would warn Dany not to trust any of her visitors. She didn't warn her against Quentyn, specifically. But to be sure - wasn't Quaithe justified? Didn't Quentyn try to steal Dany's dragons?

1 hour ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

There’s no reason to even introduce Aegon unless he’s a popular ruler; if he’s just going to be a mad and cruel king for Dany to take out, then Cersei would do just as well.

But Cersei isn't George's plan for that particular role. Aegon - like Stannis  and whoever is the third lie - is a person who will (at first) appear as a good guy or at least a possible savior/hero only for the plot to gradually reveal that he is either a fraud, a fake, or a misguised person who despite their best intentions will make things only worse.

And to be sure - Aegon sort of playing the role Daenerys had in the show doesn't turn him into another Maegor. He could still be well-intended but somewhat unhinged and willing to go too far to stay in power.

It also doesn't mean everybody is going to abandon him for Daenerys (or somebody else). Rather that his reign and actions will quickly cause many Westerosi to sober up and no longer view him as the savior he may appear to be when he takes the throne.

1 hour ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

And we’re already seeing the Daenerys the Mad reputation form, even if it’s undeserved. Quentyn and Arianne are in different countries, but they’ve both heard rumors about her that disturb them. Mace Tyrell has already started propagating the belief that she’s as mad as her father. And when Gerris and Arch get back to Dorne and tell everyone that Dany laughed in Quentyn’s face, that will just be taken as further proof of her cruelty.

Sure enough, folks might be willing to believe certain stories about Daenerys. But that doesn't mean Aegon is going to be a nice or great king. Again - he has neither dragons nor a vast army of Dothraki at his disposal. When folks do not accept his rule and try to depose him he has to fight back hard. He cannot afford to look weak or else people will quickly say he is neither a dragon nor Rhaegar's son.

Edited by Lord Varys
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1 hour ago, Corvinus85 said:

The show could easily make the Shepard be Larys's doing, as was likely the case anyway.

Larys would be a complete moron to be behind the Shepherd. That guy killed three Green dragons in KL and urged his followers to kill all the dragons and all the Targaryens they could lay their hands on. They would have to make Larys Strong into a guy who wanted to end Targaryen rule if the Shepherd was his creature.

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1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

Larys would be a complete moron to be behind the Shepherd. That guy killed three Green dragons in KL and urged his followers to kill all the dragons and all the Targaryens they could lay their hands on. They would have to make Larys Strong into a guy who wanted to end Targaryen rule if the Shepherd was his creature.

Well Larys managed to get himself arrested and killed by a Stark in the end, so he wasn't that clever. Considering that the Shepherd first started preaching against Rhaenyra and only later moved on to preaching for killing dragons, it's plausible to have a plot where Larys uses someone like the Shepherd to foment an uprising but which gets out of his control. He can be written as a clever man, but not a genius who can foresee every outcome. (not unlike Tyrion and even LF really) 

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59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, of course, he will be popular. For five minutes, when he takes KL without any bloodshed. Afterwards everything will go downhill.

That is pretty much implied by the simple fact that George uses basically the same words to describe both the Young Dragon in TWoIaF and Aegon in ADwD.

It definitely won't go well for the lies she is to slay. And since it is actually pretty unlikely that Daenerys will personally 'slay' Stannis, she might also have no direct hand in Aegon's demise - assuming he is going to die at all.

Quaithe made no prophecy, she just saw who was on their way to Daenerys at the time she contacted her. And she does have her own plans for Daenerys, presumably, which means she has her motives why she would warn Dany not to trust any of her visitors. She didn't warn her against Quentyn, specifically. But to be sure - wasn't Quaithe justified? Didn't Quentyn try to steal Dany's dragons?

But Cersei isn't George's plan for that particular role. Aegon - like Stannis  and whoever is the third lie - is a person who will (at first) appear as a good guy or at least a possible savior/hero only for the plot to gradually reveal that he is either a fraud, a fake, or a misguised person who despite their best intentions will make things only worse.

And to be sure - Aegon sort of playing the role Daenerys had in the show doesn't turn him into another Maegor. He could still be well-intended but somewhat unhinged and willing to go too far to stay in power.

It also doesn't mean everybody is going to abandon him for Daenerys (or somebody else). Rather that his reign and actions will quickly cause many Westerosi to sober up and no longer view him as the savior he may appear to be when he takes the throne.

Sure enough, folks might be willing to believe certain stories about Daenerys. But that doesn't mean Aegon is going to be a nice or great king. Again - he has neither dragons nor a vast army of Dothraki at his disposal. When folks do not accept his rule and try to depose him he has to fight back hard. He cannot afford to look weak or else people will quickly say he is neither a dragon nor Rhaegar's son.

I see him trying to steal a dragon as a consequence of her not trusting him. Quentyn was sincere in promise to help her take the Iron Throne. It was a mistake for Dany not to seize the opportunity. 

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Imagine that Quentyn says something like “ Hi Dany, we are long lost cousins, and even though you are marrying a guy tomorrow to prevent bloodshed, I am going to ignore your desires and wishes, and if you don’t pick me instead…and I realize I’m not attractive or accomplished, I will unleash your dangerous fire breathing pets from where they are caged. How about it, hon?”

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2 hours ago, Corvinus85 said:

Well Larys managed to get himself arrested and killed by a Stark in the end, so he wasn't that clever. Considering that the Shepherd first started preaching against Rhaenyra and only later moved on to preaching for killing dragons, it's plausible to have a plot where Larys uses someone like the Shepherd to foment an uprising but which gets out of his control. He can be written as a clever man, but not a genius who can foresee every outcome. (not unlike Tyrion and even LF really) 

Oh, well, he couldn't foresee that particular outcome. And he could have gotten off the hook easily enough. Remember that he actually chose execution.

I'm not saying the Shepherd couldn't have started as Larys' puppet to then get out of control. That would certainly be possible. I just don't think it is particularly likely. Not just because he wouldn't work with such a dangerous tool but simply because situations like this - fear-induced chaos - have a tendency to produce leaders of their own. Larys had one big pawn in the midst of all this with Perkin the Flea, not need to assume he had multiple pawns.

1 hour ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I see him trying to steal a dragon as a consequence of her not trusting him. Quentyn was sincere in promise to help her take the Iron Throne. It was a mistake for Dany not to seize the opportunity. 

Quentyn developed the delusion that Daenerys showing him the dragons meant she wanted him to become a dragonrider. That was just stupid delusion on his part, a kind of weird insecure interpretation that the beautiful woman he was supposed to marry must have some other motive than, you know, tell him that she isn't the right woman for him and he should go back home.

Dany would have gained nothing had she decided to abandon her people for the, well, not all that impressive assurance that all Dorne would declare and fight for her if she and Quentyn arrived in Westeros. He had shown up just with two companions. And she had, at that point, no intention to go to Westeros in the foreseeable future.

And in context to Aegon:

I don't even see a good chance that George can reasonably write a story where Dany goes to Westeros angry or furious because Aegon got their first, nor with a thirst for conquest and payback. She was never in Westeros before, and has no real emotional connection to the place - something that has been stressed continuous throughout the entire series.

If she ends up taking over the Dothraki she will have a secure and real place as a god-empress figure in Essos. She has about as much need for Westeros as the rulers of the Valyrian Freehold had.

If she goes there anyway - and soon rather than in her mid-twenties or early thirties, say - then because crucial Westerosi will convince her that she must. But those reasons cannot be things like 'You must go now, or else the dragonless impostor will steal your throne' nor 'You must go now, or else you won't be able to conquer the place.'

She will always have the strength to conquer the place and she will always have the power to overthrow Aegon or any other pretender. She has dragons and the others don't. And she will have the largest armies in the world and all the resources she could possibly need to conquer a continent even without dragons.

And speaking about the dragons - time would cause them to grow ever larger. If Dany wants to be Daenerys the Conqueress she should postpone her Conquest until she is at least as old as Aegon the Conqueror was when he landed in Westeros. After all, Drogon should be much larger ten years from now.

And as I've been saying for years: The biggest deterrent for her to go now should be winter. It makes no sense to try to conquer Westeros (or even war there) in winter. If she was in a hurry for some reason, yes, she would do that, but none of the mortal pretenders in Westeros can really threaten Daenerys.

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5 hours ago, HoodedCrow said:

Imagine that Quentyn says something like “ Hi Dany, we are long lost cousins, and even though you are marrying a guy tomorrow to prevent bloodshed, I am going to ignore your desires and wishes, and if you don’t pick me instead…and I realize I’m not attractive or accomplished, I will unleash your dangerous fire breathing pets from where they are caged. How about it, hon?”

Haha I didn’t mean it quite like that. If Dany’s goal was to retake Westeros, then an alliance with Dorne is a golden opportunity. Part of the reason why she didn’t go for it was because Quaithe warned her against Quentyn. The dragon theft plot came later, as an act of desperation. 

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Yes, marrying Quentyn would have been a good alliance, if all things were equal, but it couldn’t happen. I’m sympathetic to Quentyn , but really, he was unprepared for the task, and then he was rash to “ get the girl” who had a limited amount of time. Quiathe didn’t help, I imagine, but the proposal was doomed on merit other than he had a royal bloodline. It didn’t even seem official.

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Posted (edited)

I must say , I have a newly found respect for George when it comes to Daenerys/Quentyn fiasco:) .... in one of "is GRRM a bad writer" threads one of the posters informed us about how ,apparently, Martin had rewritten Dany and Quentyn's meeting several times and not just in alternatives of their exchange but rather the timing. as it seems George has created the perfect doomed first meeting between the two . not only Daenerys is over occupied with Quaithe's warnings (which seem to stem from hindsight and it probably would have been better if there weren't any warnings) , but she is going to be married exactly the day after . George had been careful to make a situation in which you can't really blame Daenerys for spurring Quentyn because she had literally no time to consider the proposal ; but you can't also blame Quentyn for seeing it as a slap in the face and getting desperate by it because he didn't come to an already married woman but a free one who chose to spur him despite the fact that he represented a perfect opportunity if she wanted to reclaim her father's throne and he did sacrifice quite a lot , including his adopted brother just to reach her ..   

Edited by EggBlue
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Let me get back to my original point: Quaithe, like Melisandre, tries to use her visions to help someone and probably ended up hurting Dany instead. Fin. 
 

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, well, he couldn't foresee that particular outcome. And he could have gotten off the hook easily enough. Remember that he actually chose execution.

I'm not saying the Shepherd couldn't have started as Larys' puppet to then get out of control. That would certainly be possible. I just don't think it is particularly likely. Not just because he wouldn't work with such a dangerous tool but simply because situations like this - fear-induced chaos - have a tendency to produce leaders of their own. Larys had one big pawn in the midst of all this with Perkin the Flea, not need to assume he had multiple pawns.

Quentyn developed the delusion that Daenerys showing him the dragons meant she wanted him to become a dragonrider. That was just stupid delusion on his part, a kind of weird insecure interpretation that the beautiful woman he was supposed to marry must have some other motive than, you know, tell him that she isn't the right woman for him and he should go back home.

Dany would have gained nothing had she decided to abandon her people for the, well, not all that impressive assurance that all Dorne would declare and fight for her if she and Quentyn arrived in Westeros. He had shown up just with two companions. And she had, at that point, no intention to go to Westeros in the foreseeable future.

And in context to Aegon:

I don't even see a good chance that George can reasonably write a story where Dany goes to Westeros angry or furious because Aegon got their first, nor with a thirst for conquest and payback. She was never in Westeros before, and has no real emotional connection to the place - something that has been stressed continuous throughout the entire series.

If she ends up taking over the Dothraki she will have a secure and real place as a god-empress figure in Essos. She has about as much need for Westeros as the rulers of the Valyrian Freehold had.

If she goes there anyway - and soon rather than in her mid-twenties or early thirties, say - then because crucial Westerosi will convince her that she must. But those reasons cannot be things like 'You must go now, or else the dragonless impostor will steal your throne' nor 'You must go now, or else you won't be able to conquer the place.'

She will always have the strength to conquer the place and she will always have the power to overthrow Aegon or any other pretender. She has dragons and the others don't. And she will have the largest armies in the world and all the resources she could possibly need to conquer a continent even without dragons.

And speaking about the dragons - time would cause them to grow ever larger. If Dany wants to be Daenerys the Conqueress she should postpone her Conquest until she is at least as old as Aegon the Conqueror was when he landed in Westeros. After all, Drogon should be much larger ten years from now.

And as I've been saying for years: The biggest deterrent for her to go now should be winter. It makes no sense to try to conquer Westeros (or even war there) in winter. If she was in a hurry for some reason, yes, she would do that, but none of the mortal pretenders in Westeros can really threaten Daenerys.

That assuming her other two dragons aren’t going to be claimed by other people, which they all but certainly will be.

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11 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Let me get back to my original point: Quaithe, like Melisandre, tries to use her visions to help someone and probably ended up hurting Dany instead. Fin.

I don't think the warning actually is much on Dany's mind when she meets Quentyn, nor is it the or a reason why she spurns him. Quentyn had no chance from the moment Daenerys decided to stay in Meereen.

11 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

That assuming her other two dragons aren’t going to be claimed by other people, which they all but certainly will be.

Sure, but even if they ended up with folks who aren't in camp Daenerys ... they are very unlikely to ever join team Aegon. If there are going to be independent dragonriders they are likely to try to claim the throne themselves, not offer help to a fake pretender.

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Posted (edited)

Had Dany come to Dorne, she’d have had to contend with Arianne’s intense jealousy towards both her and Quentyn.  Arianne might well have tried to assassinate her.

WRT Aegon, I doubt if Jon Con and the Dornish will pass up the opportunity for vengeance which they’ve waited so long for.  

 

Edited by SeanF
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On 5/9/2022 at 10:33 PM, TormundsWoman said:

Strange we should come to such different conclusions while reading the same book, Lord Varys. Then again diversity IS the spice of life. 

If you permit a different view here’s who I consider gender non-conforming Targ women:

Saera Targaryen- she’s lustful and defiant she doesn’t really want marriage and never goes down meekly when faced with a different standard as male have their fun before marriage while women do not. While one can put down her acting out as a rebellious nature she’s definitely more than that. In the end she can be found in the house of pleasure in Lys rather than conforming or accepting the Silent Sister fate, wha family and society deemed punishment for her.

Alyssa Targaryen (daughter of Jaehaerys and Alysanne)- always following around Baelon and Aemon, wears boys clothes and likes to ride and duel rather like Arya, she would have chosen Balerion for a Dragon if the dragonpit masters wouldn’t have opposed her. They tried to tame her but they couldn’t and the only reason she’s fitting the mold is because she loves Baelon. In the end she does marry him and she’s enjoying her life but one wonders if she wouldn’t have loved him… would she have been another Arya(?)

That’s two out of 5 living daughters if I’m not mistaken from J&A core family only Daella and Maegelle both are in fact the meekest lambs. I don’t remember the 5th one unfortunately. And I can’t think of any others now I’m on my phone, but I’m sure I had more initially in mind when I read your original post.

What makes you think Arya won't follow a similar path and marry someone for love?

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Rather intrigued by George's comment that King Viserys I is going to get 'a tragic majesty' he never achieved in the book.

That feels interesting. He still should be that fun party king, though. But him actually be a character rather than a fat guy who got some lines is most likely an improvement.

Oh, and Cersei apparently gets multiple chapters in TWoW and George still wrestles with Jaime and Brienne, too, so they are apparently not going to die soon.

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36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Rather intrigued by George's comment that King Viserys I is going to get 'a tragic majesty' he never achieved in the book.

That feels interesting. He still should be that fun party king, though. But him actually be a character rather than a fat guy who got some lines is most likely an improvement.

Oh, and Cersei apparently gets multiple chapters in TWoW and George still wrestles with Jaime and Brienne, too, so they are apparently not going to die soon.

When/where did he say all of this?

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5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Rather intrigued by George's comment that King Viserys I is going to get 'a tragic majesty' he never achieved in the book.

That feels interesting. He still should be that fun party king, though. But him actually be a character rather than a fat guy who got some lines is most likely an improvement.

oh I just came here to say the same thing! he also says he likes their choice of events ... that one's promising

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, and Cersei apparently gets multiple chapters in TWoW and George still wrestles with Jaime and Brienne, too, so they are apparently not going to die soon.

unless , he is still working on the first half of the book.. another interpretation about finished clutch of Cersei's chapters is that she may finally die in Winds :) 

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But I'm not forgetting the fact that Viserys looks like a sad and repressed creature in the teaser-trailer. There is nothing fun about him at all. If they took away that from him then the character might be more complex ... but pretty much nothing like the guy George created. I'd not like that kind of diversion. You can be fun and easy-going and still have a complex personality.

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17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But I'm not forgetting the fact that Viserys looks like a sad and repressed creature in the teaser-trailer. There is nothing fun about him at all. If they took away that from him then the character might be more complex ... but pretty much nothing like the guy George created. I'd not like that kind of diversion. You can be fun and easy-going and still have a complex personality.

To be fair, GoT was also much less colorful than the books, and it didn't ruin the viewing experience for me. So I won't jump to conclusions based on that.

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