Avatar 2: The Way of Water

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Three billion moneys. It will make three billion moneys. I'm calling it now. These guys are wrong.

 

[BigFatCoward]

6 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Three billion moneys. It will make three billion moneys. I'm calling it now. These guys are wrong.

 

I can't see 3billion. But I'd be surprised if it didn't make 2. 

[Kalnestk Oblast]

Avatar 2 might be the first big movie that makes significantly more internationally than domestically. 

[Corvinus85]

24 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

I can't see 3billion. But I'd be surprised if it didn't make 2. 

Deadlines did not specify the currency. I hear the ruble is doing poorly.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

2 reasons:

1. There has been about 20% domestic ticket price inflation since 2009. I suspect that number is pretty consistent across other markets as well. That means that A2: The Way of Wudder could sell ~17% fewer tickets and still hit the same number. This seems plausible to me.

2. China. When Avatar finished it's theatrical run in china back in 2009, it was the highest grossing foreign film there with about $200 million. But this is at a time when the Chinese market for western films is still developing. Jesus, how many literal movie theaters have been built in China since then?

Fast forward to 2022 and Avatar now sits 29th on the all time list there according to Box office mojo. The record for the highest grossing foreign film in China was reset twenty eight times in a decade; with 2019's Avengers: Endgame taking $620 million there. If Avatar 2 can approach that number, that will go a long way toward offsetting relative declines due to streaming, or lack of repeat viewings etc. in other markets.

ETA: the rank of 29th for Avatar includes the subsequent rereleases. The original release would rank it lower. 

14 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

Avatar 2 might be the first big movie that makes significantly more internationally than domestically. 

It's actually more common than you'd think. The first Avatar did just over 70% of its WW box office internationally. Same for Aquaman. Avengers: Endgame had a similar 70/30 split. 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Deadlines? What Deadlines?

[Kalnestk Oblast]

1 minute ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

It's actually more common than you'd think. The first Avatar did just over 70% of its WW box office internationally. Same for Aquaman. Avengers: Endgame had a similar 70/30 split. 

I'm saying that it might be closer to something like 90-10. Avatar, IIRC, was the first big movie that did massive amounts of money overseas period, and that kind of set the trend for future movies - things like Transformers exploited this as an example.

But I could see Avatar 2 doing good but not great in the US but doing insanely great overseas. 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

27 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

I'm saying that it might be closer to something like 90-10. Avatar, IIRC, was the first big movie that did massive amounts of money overseas period, and that kind of set the trend for future movies - things like Transformers exploited this as an example.

But I could see Avatar 2 doing good but not great in the US but doing insanely great overseas. 

That would be kind of awesome, actually. 

I dunno. In a context where Top Gun: Maverick can nearly double the domestic take of Dr. Strange, Batman, and Thor, and animated films like Lightyear and DC League of Super Pets can bomb, anything's possible I guess.   

[polishgenius]

1 hour ago, KalVsWade said:

Avatar 2 might be the first big movie that makes significantly more internationally than domestically. 

 

 

Depends what you mean by 'significantly' I suppose, but out of the 2.9 billion the first one made, 2.1 billion was internationally, so I think it's late to that party.

Mind you, it's not 'big' on the same scale, but The Golden Compass probably takes the cake in terms of proportion- it earned 70 mil in the US and 370mil internationally. It's only considered a bomb because they sold the international rights for a smaller lump sum up front to fund the movie in the first place, so New Line didn't get any of that money. Which is also why New Line no longer exists as a separate entity. Whoopsie.   

edit: I see you had the discussion while I was off daydreaming and not refreshing the page. Whoopsie.

Edited October 12, 2022 by polishgenius

[BigFatCoward]

1 hour ago, KalVsWade said:

I'm saying that it might be closer to something like 90-10. Avatar, IIRC, was the first big movie that did massive amounts of money overseas period, and that kind of set the trend for future movies - things like Transformers exploited this as an example.

But I could see Avatar 2 doing good but not great in the US but doing insanely great overseas. 

Unless it smashes box office records to pieces I don't see how that's possible, I don't see any way it doesn't make 400 million at the US box office minimum. 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

For comparison:

The 2022 re-release of Avatar is currently at $24 million on 2,000 screens domestically.

The 2022 re-release of Spider-Man: NWH debuted on just-shy of 4,000 screens and it did just over $9.3 million domestically. 

The 2021 re-release of Avatar in China (during the pandemic) did $57 million. That's more than the last 3 Star Wars films' (Solo, TLJ, TRoS) did individually and compares favorably with Rogue One at $69.5 million. That's for a 12 year old film that everybody's probably seen half a dozen times. 

Three billion moneys.

2 hours ago, polishgenius said:

Mind you, it's not 'big' on the same scale, but The Golden Compass probably takes the cake in terms of proportion- it earned 70 mil in the US and 370mil internationally. It's only considered a bomb because they sold the international rights for a smaller lump sum up front to fund the movie in the first place, so New Line didn't get any of that money. Which is also why New Line no longer exists as a separate entity. Whoopsie. 

And won an Oscar and BAFTA award for best VFX.

I never understood the poor reception that film got. I kinda liked it. It was at least on par with the Harry Potter crapola that was clogging up screens at the time. No offense to Harry Potter fans, but some of those films were just not great. 

 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Did I say, "three billion moneys"? Make that three-point-one billion.

 

 

[BigFatCoward]

2 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Did I say, "three billion moneys"? Make that three-point-one billion.

 

 

It looks fabulous. But I'd like a bit of plot. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Did I say, "three billion moneys"? Make that three-point-one billion.

 

 

I’ll be seeing that.  Even bad Cameron is really good stuff.

[Myrddin]

2 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Did I say, "three billion moneys"? Make that three-point-one billion.

It'll go to $4 billion before it's done. The price Disney paid for Lucasfilm.*

That said, it looks gorgeous. So, yeah, I'll be with the sheep and see it in the theater. Baaaaaahhhh.... 

 

*(I know Avatar was owned by Fox. just comparing the value of what this single movie could rake in)

[RumHam]

Are they really not doing it in 3D like I'd heard? That totally kills my desire to go see it in the theater. 

[SpaceChampion]

But what is James Cameron going to do with 3 billion monkeys? 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

47 minutes ago, RumHam said:

Are they really not doing it in 3D like I'd heard? That totally kills my desire to go see it in the theater. 

https://ymcinema.com/2022/05/12/this-is-the-camera-that-shot-avatar-2/

3 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

But what is James Cameron going to do with 3 billion monkeys? 

Cinema, Mellon Farmer. 

[Myrddin]

16 hours ago, SpaceChampion said:

But what is James Cameron going to do with 3 billion monkeys? 

Motion capture a complete shit show of an Avatar 5.

[Heartofice]

So this is 100% a cartoon now?

[Corvinus85]

Awfully weird to hear Sigourney Weaver's voice come from that kid Na'vi.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Corvinus85