US Politics: A Post-Roe Country

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

in fact since Columbine, 300,000 students have had a shooting at their school... which amounts to something like 3 in 1,000 -- or .003% 0.3% -- of students from K-12 even being present at a school where a shooting takes place, and of course the odds of individual injury and death is much, much smaller

While I emphatically agree any "roleplaying" drills that are apt to traumatize kids are unnecessary (albeit ones more akin to fire drills sound fine), this reminds me of a note of caution one of my old advisors would tell students when teaching statistical significance.  He'd ask, "if I told you a plane had a 2.5%, or even 0.1%, chance of crashing, would you get on board?"  Same principle applies here - a 3 in a thousand, or even 3 in one-hundred thousand, chance of experiencing a school shooting is tragically high.

[polishgenius]

Masks, though, are child abuse.

[Ran]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

He'd ask, "if I told you a plane had a 2.5%, or even 0.1%, chance of crashing, would you get on board?"  Same principle applies here - a 3 in a thousand, or even 3 in one-hundred thousand, chance of experiencing a school shooting is tragically high.

Agreed that it is tragically high. I'm questioning the value of lockdown drills as an effective remedy rather than just security theatre, though.

The chances of dying in a plane crash is slightly over 0.01% (corrected for my decimals) across all aviation aircraft per the National Safety Council, so it's just an order of magnitude off from the hypothetical. And yet people clearly do get on airplanes, small and large!

The chance of dying in a commercial passenger craft is 1 in 11 million... while per this professor the odds of a child dying at a school shooting is approximately 1 in 10 million in any given year, which seems about right.

raumatizing young children with active shooter drills is needless.. And even simple lockdown drills, if not handled and messaged correctly to the children, can lead to anxiety for something they are almost certain not to experience across their student career. As I said in the other thread, lockdown drills can be done with as little trauma as the fire and earthquake drills I went through as a kid, and I guess the tornado drills kids might have in relevant areas. Drills that teach teachers the proper procedures for security and reinforce kids should keep their heads and listen to their teachers, or know where to go in case of an emergency, probably all reinforce one another in a reasonable way, and I've no objection.

But lets not kid ourselves. Lockdown drills are for the most part just theatre, especially when you get to younger kids who are even more vulnerable, and it's a kind of theatre the right likes because they can point to it and wash their hands of doing anything else. Robb Elementary appears to show the limits of that lockdown drill theatre in a primary school setting, and to me it's the most important take away when it comes to what message should be delivered about it. 

[Zorral]

 

I will very cautiously add that what it seems to me posters were actually objecting to was what was perceived as embedded in the scoffing at school shooter drills that children's risk from gunfire from unspeakable randos is so minimum that concern is theater, that the focus is on the lockdowns and drills rather than on what has people wanting them.

Whereas the truth every day in the streets, schools, churches, supermarkets, shopping centers, movie theaters, etc. and now even in the subways, which never happened until this spring, is just the opposite.  Whereas, in the meantime, it very much looks as though SCOTUS is going to void our state's right on gun control right here, which included demanding license, checks, no concealed or open carry, etc. This will literally make NYC unlivable.

Additionally drills and training have worked at keeping the deaths at a minimum, as has been testifying by kids who had learned how to hide and stay very quiet in their schools.  Beyond that, the most successful outcomes of shooting events happened at synagogues where professionals had been called in to show and train in tactics of evasion, and taking down the shooter.

Yet, just now, once again, the jerkwaddies such as Cruz, etc. proposals are only the same -- more guns, armed guards in elementary schools, where we have been shown already there was an armed guard and that did nothing.

How about proposal (not from Gloria Steinem, as the commentariat keeps insisting), that every male buying a gun be treated like every woman who seeks an abortion?

Profile of mass shooters, as far as can be acertained, include fascination with guns and violence, white, male, dislike, at the very least of women, often killing a female relative or girlfriend before or after their rampage:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2022/01/26/school-shootings-what-we-know-about-them-and-what-we-can-do-to-prevent-them/

 

 

 

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, Ran said:

The chances of dying in a plane crash is slightly over 0.01% (corrected for my decimals) across all aviation aircraft per the National Safety Council, so it's just an order of magnitude off from the hypothetical. And yet people clearly do get on airplanes, small and large!

The chance of dying in a commercial passenger craft is 1 in 11 million

Yeah the 1 in 11 million figure is what my advisor cited as the actual chances in his spiel.  Never seen the 0.01% figure before - which is one in ten thousand.

15 minutes ago, Ran said:

As I said in the other thread, lockdown drills can be done with as little trauma as the fire and earthquake drills I went through as a kid, and I guess the tornado drills kids might have in relevant areas. Drills that teach teachers the proper procedures for security and reinforce kids should keep their heads and listen to their teachers, or know where to go in case of an emergency, probably all reinforce one another in a reasonable way, and I've no objection.

Right.  I actually recall doing a couple bomb drills in elementary school.  I have no idea why - and I especially have no idea why we only did them for like one year in my entire childhood - but I don't think it traumatized anybody and I remember 6 or 7 year old me thinking at the time it was silly.  Of course, I also recall wondering how it was much different than regular fire drills...

[DanteGabriel]

17 minutes ago, Zorral said:

 

I will very cautiously add that what it seems to me posters were actually objecting to was what was perceived as embedded in the scoffing at school shooter drills that children's risk from gunfire from unspeakable randos is so minimum that concern is theater, that the focus is on the lockdowns and drills rather than on what has people wanting them.

 

Yes.

[JGP]

Plus, you know... the leading cause of death of children in the US is guns.

[Ran]

17 minutes ago, JGP said:

Plus, you know... the leading cause of death of children in the US is guns.

Not in schools, though. Less than 2% of children between 5 and 18 years old who are murdered are killed on school grounds or in the course of traveling to/from school or at school functions.

The leading cause of death of students in relation to school are vehicular accidents (PDF) when going to or from school on buses or in private vehicles.

[Zorral]

That makes it all right then that so many children in the US are killed by guns elsewhere than on school grounds-- more than anywhere else in the world, even those in war zones, just about?  Kids are killed by guns in school. 

Focusing on 'security theater' is derailing from these facts of so much gun violence suffered by children in this nation, we need absolutely every little bit that might prevent them from dying by gun in hands of crazy males.

Also derails from the fact that the white male xtian nationalist party is determined to get rid of public education, and these crazy males with guns aim perfectly at that.  They have weaponized everything including mental illness the lives of children and women to get their way.  They want a world just like this.

 

 

[JGP]

In regard to shooter drills, being a parent of former littles [now teen and tween] I've had more than a few arguments with my ex about how candid we should be with our kids about the more bitter vagaries of the World, I've always been Camp Forewarn.  So, a bit of a hair splitting distinction, Ran [re: location as opposed to overall-- it's guns] but I was speaking to Zorral's last post. 

   

 

 

[Zorral]

Another thing, this being the US politics thread -- it was primary elections there yesterday. This event dampened turn-out, though nobody wants to talk about that.

Yes, I am extremely embittered, angry and depressed.  Every day the proof is in my face with yet another national story of horror being inflicted on children, women and other people just trying to do their lives, by males (not all men!)  who don't want any of us to have 'real' lives because that interferes. somehow, with their real lives.

One cannot deny though, it is men who carry out these crimes, and who are criminalizing women's reproductive health.

[Fragile Bird]

All the children killed were in the same 4th grade classroom. All of them. Imagine being in that class. I missed hearing whether both adults were too, but I think their teacher was one of the dead.

eta: all the victims were in that classroom

 

[Zorral]

Why the gops don't give a fok: Like parrots, Republicans squawk "mental health" every time we have a mass shooting. But this is a clear-cut example of how they don't give a single fuck, because any hope we have of reaching troubled kids is through the schools, and they are chipping away at that.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1529412219808759809.html

Quote

 

.... I realize I'm woolgathering a bit, because this shooting hits so close to home. But one other thing I'll add is that schools are often the only resource kids and families have. Texas teachers are overworked and underpaid, and they stick with it because they care about kids. 

Schools provide extracurricular activities and libraries, both of which are invaluable to opening up the bigger world to kids stuck in small town life. And teachers who often are happy to talk to them about life beyond Your Small Town. (Since they went to college.) 

And now our schools are under a multi-pronged assault. Loose gun laws that make school shootings common is a huge part of it. But Republicans are also banning books, defunding schools, and otherwise trying to wreck public education. 

That's just not irresponsible and bizarre in the 21st century, where education in the linchpin of our economic system. It's taking away the only lifeline that many, many, many kids have. Which I assume is the GOP's goal. 

Like parrots, Republicans squawk "mental health" every time we have a mass shooting. But this is a clear-cut example of how they don't give a single fuck, because any hope we have of reaching troubled kids is through the schools, and they are chipping away at that.

 

 

[Jaxom 1974]

Truly the leaders of Texas are terrible terrible people...this press conference is absolutely horrifying. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

 

[Reny of Storms End]

2 hours ago, Ran said:

Agreed that it is tragically high. I'm questioning the value of lockdown drills as an effective remedy rather than just security theatre, though.

My own anecdotal evidence from being a substitute teacher at a high school in a city, the students think lockdown drills are a joke and just an excuse to fool around. At one of the drills a "shooter" would walk the halls with a fake gun and attempt to enter rooms. All the times I was there for a drill, multiple kids would open the door to get "shot" so they could joke about it with friends. 

 

The only good thing about lockdown drills that I can think of comes from the ALICE method, and that is to evacuate as soon as possible. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

8 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Truly the leaders of Texas are terrible terrible people...this press conference is absolutely horrifying. 

Yes.  They are.

[ThinkerX]

Setback for this 'Madison Cawthorn' character that has the potential to affect some of his peers - unless, maybe, the Supreme Court lurches into action:

Blow to Madison Cawthorn as appeals court reverses ‘insurrectionist’ ruling (msn.com)

Hailing a “major victory”, Free Speech For People, the group which brought the case, said: “This ruling cements the growing judicial consensus that the 1872 Amnesty Act does not shield the insurrectionists of 6 January 2021 – including Donald Trump – from the consequences of their actions.”

....

 

It says: “No person shall … hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath … to support the constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”

Cawthorn and the other Republicans were closely tied to events around the deadly January 6 attack on the US Capitol by Trump supporters seeking to stop certification of Joe Biden’s election victory. They have denied knowledge of plans for violence.

In answer to Free Speech for People, lawyers argued that an 1872 amnesty law for former Confederates did not only apply retroactively. Judges sided with them.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

And the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals (my very own) is known as a “Conservative Circuit”.

[Week]

 

The Federalist giving away the game here. Anything to undermine support of public institutions accountable to the country and throw funding to unaccountable private institutions that are free to discriminate and spread their theocratic propaganda.