Solved Mysteries

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I don’t really see the connection between hating franchises and disagreeing about theories. 

Yes, some fans can be very toxic. But George has been spending an awful lot of time complaining about his fans lately, and it just feeds into this mentality that it’s somehow the fans’ fault that the books aren’t done or the show failed to stick the landing. It’s like when a candidate loses an election (or, God forbid, only wins by a slim margin) and all the pundits blame the voters and not the person doing the campaigning for their votes. 

He also made this ironic comment about how you can’t keep telling the same story over and over again. Meanwhile, we’ve already gotten four renditions of the Dance of the Dragons (TRP, TPATQ, TWOIAF, FnB) and are about to get two more (HOTD and Rise of the Dragon).

I'm not assigning blame.  There is a zeitgeist that pervades social media, to which we haven't always been subjected.  A kind of behavior modification that reinforces and magnifies negative emotions.  We can see it everywhere from politics to your favorite book or tv show.

Fans are not to blame for feeling disappointed or discontented.  However, this would not have been the case twenty years ago before the rise of social media, such as it is today.  I have waited just as long for some of my other favorite writers to publish another book.  What I didn't have was the constant reminder that my expectations weren't being met.  I just moved on.

George has been victimized by social media. There is no doubt in my mind about it.  One minute nobody really knows him, and the next minute, the world is laser focused on everything he does or says.  I sometimes think we know too much about George.  I don't want to dismiss how he feels either.

Has he been spending a lot of time complaining about fans? Or do we just percieve it that way?  He made one comment of a Bits and Pieces blog entry that made my heart sink.  Then he followed that up with a comment that was more sensitive.  I'd say he cares about his fans a great deal.  Then the media picks up on these things and has to ask about it.  George doesn't just live in a fish bowl, he lives under a microscope.

That's why listening to podcasters who are poistive and entertaining is so appealing to me. It's an antidote for feelings of disappointment.

[Frey family reunion]

On 5/27/2022 at 8:32 PM, Nevets said:

The Tyrells have every reason to be afraid of what Joffrey might do to Margaery.  Sure, he may be truly smitten with her now (though appearances can be deceiving), but it's not right now they're worried about.  It's a year, or two, or three, down the road that worries them. 

I'm a bit on the fence about the Tyrells' motivations to kill Joffrey on their daughter's wedding night.  On the one hand, it seems that they would want the marriage to last at least long enough for Margaraery to give birth to the heir.  That's when they truly can take power, when their family has control over the heir to the kingdom.  Risking that for the mere possibility of wedding Tommen and then waiting long enough to consumate the marriage seems like a risky proposition.  That's especially true if they truly think that they can control his behavior with Loras' presence for at least the first couple years of the marriage.

On the other hand, I suppose that if they're (or perhaps just Olenna) not willing to risk Joffrey's ugliness rearing it's head before Margaery conceives an heir, then you would have to kill Joffrey before their wedding night.  Because once Margaery loses her virginity, then the risk is her value as a future bride goes down as well (especially since this would be her second wedding night).  I suppose you can convince everyone that you didn't consumate the marriage the first time, but the second?

[Prince of the North]

2 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I failed to anticipate how angry this thread would make people. I guess that’s my own fault.

Not your fault at all.  Don't beat yourself up over it

[LynnS]

23 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Meanwhile, we’ve already gotten four renditions of the Dance of the Dragons (TRP, TPATQ, TWOIAF, FnB) and are about to get two more (HOTD and Rise of the Dragon).

You might find Joe Magician's comments about George's gardening style and retconning LSH, the red wedding and the catspaw interesting.

starting at 16 m 58 s

What does No One want? - YouTube

That started me thinking about foreshadowing in GOT and Ithink GRRM said somewhere that we were on our own when it comes to forshadowing.

I think this is an example of something that was meant to be forshadowing:

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Jon I

"Some woman, no doubt. Most of them are." He favored Jon with a rueful grin. "Remember this, boy. All dwarfs may be bastards, yet not all bastards need be dwarfs." And with that he turned and sauntered back into the feast, whistling a tune. When he opened the door, the light from within threw his shadow clear across the yard, and for just a moment Tyrion Lannister stood tall as a king.

Literally using a shadow to forshadow GRRM's original intention that Tyrion would capture Winterfell at some point.  But he didn't go with that idea.  Instead he makes Tyrion into Hugor of the Hill in DwD.  So I wonder if he is retconning for Tyrion to be King of another sort.

[Frey family reunion]

On 5/31/2022 at 7:36 AM, LynnS said:

As for GRRM retconning; I find that fascinating.  Did he set up both scenarios about Joffrey/Tyrion as the target of the Purple Wedding and then choose to go with Joffrey?

Which is why when George says: "I make no promises, and I may have more surprises to reveal" I don't think George is necessarily being coy.  I think there are times when George leaves some things purposely ambiguous because he himself hasn't decided fully what direction he wants to take.  And yes I think this is an example of George being a "gardener" as opposed to an "architect".  

Which makes me wonder if George had different plans for the catspaw but at some point decided not to go in that direction.  Unfortunately, his "resolution" of making Joffrey the person behind the catspaw is a bit disappointing.  And really makes no sense.  If that is indeed his resolution.

Joffrey's motivation is to curry favor  with or impress his father, so he carries out an act that he can't ever reveal to his father?  And he sacrifices a valyrian steel blade to accomplish it?  If that's his resolution than it's one that makes little to no sense.

 

[LynnS]

36 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Which is why when George says: "I make no promises, and I may have more surprises to reveal" I don't think George is necessarily being coy.  I think there are times when George leaves some things purposely ambiguous because he himself hasn't decided fully what direction he wants to take.  And yes I think this is an example of George being a "gardener" as opposed to an "architect".  

Which makes me wonder if George had different plans for the catspaw but at some point decided not to go in that direction.  Unfortunately, his "resolution" of making Joffrey the person behind the catspaw is a bit disappointing.  And really makes no sense.  If that is indeed his resolution.

Joffrey's motivation is to curry favor  with or impress his father, so he carries out an act that he can't ever reveal to his father?  And he sacrifices a valyrian steel blade to accomplish it?  If that's his resolution than it's one that makes little to no sense.

 

I agree with everything here.  I still found it interesting to hear the logic behind Tyrion as the target at the red wedding.  I would be delighted if he did surprise us with some retconned revelation in the next book.  I have some rather loose ideas about the catspaw being affected by glass candle user even if Joffrey hired him.  Especially with the burning of the libray.

[Frey family reunion]

59 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I agree with everything here.  I still found it interesting to hear the logic behind Tyrion as the target at the red wedding.  I would be delighted if he did surprise us with some retconned revelation in the next book.  I have some rather loose ideas about the catspaw being affected by glass candle user even if Joffrey hired him.  Especially with the burning of the libray.

One of the problems with the Tyrells or Littlefinger planning on poisoning Tyrion with the black amethysts, is it doesn't really make sense within the timeline of when Sansa received the hairnet.

First when Dontos tells Sansa that the hairnet is justice for her father, the clear implication is that the hairnet is meant for Joffrey.  It also seems unlikely that it would have been meant for Tyrion at that time because she wasn't engaged to Tyrion.  In fact, I think Tyrion was still gravely injured and for all anyone knew, he either wouldn't survive his injuries or the extent of them would leave him permanently sidelined.  So it seems unlikely that Littlefinger or the Tyrells could have foreseen that Sansa would have ended up being married off to Tyrion.

Now that doesn't mean that plans can't change midstream.  Perhaps Olenna thought better of having Joffrey poisoned and instead decided that they would deal with Joffrey after Margaerys gave birth to the heir, so instead they pivoted and decided to poison Tyrion to free up Sansa.  I mean it's certainly possible.  After all Olenna was still trying to guage just how much of a threat Joffrey was well after Sansa received the necklace.

But the one thing that no one still has addressed is how Olenna would have poisoned either the chalice or the pie.  After Tyrion refills the chalice and lets Joffrey drink from it the first time, it's clear there is no poison in the chalice because Joffrey drinks from it without any ill affects for an extended period of time.

In the meantime the chalice is left on the table in front of Tyrion.  And while other people may be milling about the party, we know that Tyrion stays at his seat because we're given Tyrion's POV.   So the poison would have to have been delivered without Tyrion's knowledge.

While I suppose it's possible that someone could have surreptitiously dropped the poison then, we have a strong reason to believe that it couldnt' have been Olenna.  The chalice is three feet high and seated on top of a table.  Olenna is the height of a child.  Perhaps only slightly taller than Tyrion, who needs to stand on his chair just to reach the chalice.

It's possible that Olenna could have had someone else drop the poison, perhaps Garlan or one of her guards, but that's a pretty big task to assign someone, to poison the king or even Tyrion.  Would she have even dared utter this plan aloud?  Would someone like Garlan have been willing to use poison on either Tyrion or the King?  Perhaps Garlan is shown to be so friendly and courteous to Tyrion is George's way of showing that Garlan would not have committed such a deed.

And as for the pie, the opportunity to poison that is much less.  The pie is put in front of Tyrion and even though he tries to leave the table at one point, that's when Joffrey stops him and takes a bite of his pie.  I think Tyrion would have been alerted to anyone trying to poison his pie.  Unless of course the pie was poisoned from someone to his right when his attention was directed to his left when Joffrey was approaching him.

That's why I keep turning to Sansa.  Sansa had the opportunity being the only person positioned to the right of Tyrion, Tyrion's attention was often focused on his left in the direction of the king, giving Sansa the best opportunity to drop the poison without his knowledge.  And of course Sansa was also directly in possession of the poison.  I think it's a tad suspicious that Sansa would not have come to the conclusion that black amethysts from Asshai were poison.  Especially when Dontos tells her point blank that the amethysts were justice and vengeance for her father's death.

Sansa also had the best motive to either poison Joffrey or Tryion.  She hated Joffrey and wanted vengeance on Joffrey especially after she realized that he had their family's sword.  She also desperately wanted to be free of her marriage to Tyrion.

So the only thing stopping the reader from coming to the conclusion that Sansa is the poisoner is that we're given her POV in the next chapter and she never acknowledges that she tried to poison either Joffrey or Tyrion.  Which makes me wonder if George is deliberately making Sansa an unreliable POV.  Which is what he teases later when she falsely remebers getting a kiss from the Hound.  In this case her unreliable POV would take the form of her repressing her action, that she committed a murder.  And the clue to her repressing this action is the hysterical laughter that threatened to come up when she was told that she had a good heart.

[The Bard of Banefort]

If there’s one twist that I think GRRM has left open for himself, it’s the possibility that Aerys fathered a Lannister child. There’s definitely enough groundwork that it wouldn’t come out of left field, but I could see him choosing not to pursue it.

Spoiler

If Tyrion was definitely a Targ, I think the show would have kept that in. They completely whitewashed Tyrion and made him an unambiguous hero; I can’t see them passing up the opportunity to have Tyrion be Dany’s long-lost brother.

 

[LynnS]

22 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

If there’s one twist that I think GRRM has left open for himself, it’s the possibility that Aerys fathered a Lannister child. There’s definitely enough groundwork that it wouldn’t come out of left field, but I could see him choosing not to pursue it.

  Reveal hidden contents

If Tyrion was definitely a Targ, I think the show would have kept that in. They completely whitewashed Tyrion and made him an unambiguous hero; I can’t see them passing up the opportunity to have Tyrion be Dany’s long-lost brother.

 

I'm definately leaning in this direction with all the references to Tyrion and dragons in GoT.  I think it may turn out that Tyrion is one of the heads of the dragon (whatever that means).   T think the 'sphynx is the riddle" relating to the three heads of the dragon (prologue of FFC) is referring to spynx at the Citadel.  These are the head of a man or women; thr body of a lion, a serpent's tail (or dragon) and the wings of an eagle.  Tyrion being the lion.

Tin-foiish, but I'm not the only one who thinks the three heads points to the Citadel's spynx statues.

[the trees have eyes]

19 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

So the only thing stopping the reader from coming to the conclusion that Sansa is the poisoner is that we're given her POV in the next chapter and she never acknowledges that she tried to poison either Joffrey or Tyrion.  Which makes me wonder if George is deliberately making Sansa an unreliable POV.  Which is what he teases later when she falsely remebers getting a kiss from the Hound.  In this case her unreliable POV would take the form of her repressing her action, that she committed a murder.  And the clue to her repressing this action is the hysterical laughter that threatened to come up when she was told that she had a good heart.

An interesting take on things.  I would say that's not the only thing stopping the reader from coming to that conclusion.  The one thing everyone seems to agree on (I hope) is that 1) Sansa wore the hairnet, 2) Olenna fiddled with it under the pretence of straightening it and 3) post-murder Sansa realised that one of the amethysts was missing. 

The obvious inference (one for the careful reader, no doubt ) is that Olenna removed the strangler and either administered it later herself or handed it off to an agent or co-conspirator to administer.  If we're going to be picky we can question how Olenna new which amethyst to remove (is it obviously larger or different to the others? I think slightly larger) and how the poison was administered without anyone noticing it but these are procedural issues rather than conceptual ones.

But if we're questioning Sansa's perception of reality, i.e. that she poisoned Joffrey, then we have to question whether Olenna ever fiddled with her hairnet, whether Sansa knew (and how she knew) that she had poison in her hairnet and how she would have any idea what kind and how quick or effective a poison.  And the problem of how she could fiddle with her hairnet and apply the poison to chalice or pie without being spotted is just as germane for her as anyone else.

Unless you reject Olenna taking the amethyst from her hairnet Sansa is not in possession of it during the wedding feast.

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

An interesting take on things.  I would say that's not the only thing stopping the reader from coming to that conclusion.  The one thing everyone seems to agree on (I hope) is that 1) Sansa wore the hairnet, 2) Olenna fiddled with it under the pretence of straightening it and 3) post-murder Sansa realised that one of the amethysts was missing. 

Yes I agree, Sansa wore the hairnet and Olenna fiddled with it.  As for your last point, the issue is whether GRRM is having fun with the idea of Sansa as an unreliable narrator.  In this case by making Sansa's conscious mind suppress/block her memory of having committed or taken part in a murder.  

So her conscious mind actively blocks all memories of any guilty action that Sansa took part in.  But Sansa's subconscious mind remembers.  Which is why her hand goes to her hairnet and why her fingers go to the place on the hairnet where the stone is missing.  And she "suddenly" comes to the conclusion that the gems are poison.  Then her conscious mind starts desperately lashing out looking for someone to blame.  

Part of my skepticism of Sansa's "innocence" is that she had not already come to the conclusion that a hairnet filled with stones from Asshai, which she was told constituted vengeance and justice for her father, is in fact poison.

But yes, Sansa's point of view chapter is what steers the reader away from concluding that Sansa is the poisoner, because she had a better motive and opportunity than anyone else in the room.

2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

The obvious inference (one for the careful reader, no doubt ) is that Olenna removed the strangler and either administered it later herself or handed it off to an agent or co-conspirator to administer.  If we're going to be picky we can question how Olenna new which amethyst to remove (is it obviously larger or different to the others? I think slightly larger) and how the poison was administered without anyone noticing it but these are procedural issues rather than conceptual ones.

 

That's interesting, I was always under the assumption that all of the gems in the hairnet were poison.  What leads you to conclude that only one was?  

As for the procedural issues I don't think we can readily dismiss those.  GRRM gives a great deal of information on the setup of the room, and who Tyrion was interacting with.  I'm not sure it's enough to say that Olenna fiddled with the hairnet and Petyr's word is sufficient to convict her.  I mean we have to ask how would Olenna have done it?  I think the evidence is clear that Sansa was in a much more advantageous position to have administered the poison (at least to any food or drink around Tyrion).

2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

But if we're questioning Sansa's perception of reality, i.e. that she poisoned Joffrey, then we have to question whether Olenna ever fiddled with her hairnet, whether Sansa knew (and how she knew) that she had poison in her hairnet and how she would have any idea what kind and how quick or effective a poison.  And the problem of how she could fiddle with her hairnet and apply the poison to chalice or pie without being spotted is just as germane for her as anyone else.

No, we can't question whether Olenna ever fiddled with the hairnet, because we don't get that info just from Sansa's POV, we first get it from Tyrion's

Quote

“You do look quite exquisite, child,” Lady Olenna Tyrell told Sansa when she tottered up to them in a cloth-of-gold gown that must have weighed more than she did. “The wind has been at your hair, though.” The little old woman reached up and fussed at the loose strands, tucking them back into place and straightening Sansa’s hair net. “I was very sorry to hear about your losses,” she said as she tugged and fiddled. “Your brother was a terrible traitor, I know, but if we start killing men at weddings they’ll be even more frightened of marriage than they are presently. There, that’s better.” Lady Olenna smiled. “I am pleased to say I shall be leaving for Highgarden the day after next.”

But more subtly, she's not the only person that Tyrion notices who fiddles with Sansa's hair:

Quote

Sansa tasted a spoonful of soup and pushed the bowl away. “Not to your liking, my lady?” Tyrion asked.
            “There’s to be so much, my lord. I have a little tummy.” She fiddled nervously with her hair and looked down the table to where Joffrey sat with his Tyrell queen.”

So I do wonder if GRRM is purposely hedging his bets here to give two persons the opportunity to have removed the poison from the hairnet.

2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Unless you reject Olenna taking the amethyst from her hairnet Sansa is not in possession of it during the wedding feast.

That's the million dollar question (at least in my mind).  Was it Olenna who took the poison from the hairnet or was it Sansa when the feast started being served?

Was Olenna merely making sure that Sansa had brought the right hairnet and the poison was still in place?  Or was Olenna making a not so subtle reminder to Sansa of what she had to do that night, by fiddling with her hairnet.   Or was the plan perhaps for Olenna to supply the poison in the hairnet by replacing one of the gems with the poison?  Or did Olenna remove the poison from Sansa's hairnet?  Or was Olenna merely fixing Sansa's hair and Petyr just seized on whoever Sansa indicated had fixed her hair as the culprit.

I just have a feeling that George has hedged his bets a bit and might have at least left the door open to throw us a curveball.

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

One of the problems with the Tyrells or Littlefinger planning on poisoning Tyrion with the black amethysts, is it doesn't really make sense within the timeline of when Sansa received the hairnet.

First when Dontos tells Sansa that the hairnet is justice for her father, the clear implication is that the hairnet is meant for Joffrey.  It also seems unlikely that it would have been meant for Tyrion at that time because she wasn't engaged to Tyrion.  In fact, I think Tyrion was still gravely injured and for all anyone knew, he either wouldn't survive his injuries or the extent of them would leave him permanently sidelined.  So it seems unlikely that Littlefinger or the Tyrells could have foreseen that Sansa would have ended up being married off to Tyrion.

Now that doesn't mean that plans can't change midstream.  Perhaps Olenna thought better of having Joffrey poisoned and instead decided that they would deal with Joffrey after Margaerys gave birth to the heir, so instead they pivoted and decided to poison Tyrion to free up Sansa.  I mean it's certainly possible.  After all Olenna was still trying to guage just how much of a threat Joffrey was well after Sansa received the necklace.

But the one thing that no one still has addressed is how Olenna would have poisoned either the chalice or the pie.  After Tyrion refills the chalice and lets Joffrey drink from it the first time, it's clear there is no poison in the chalice because Joffrey drinks from it without any ill affects for an extended period of time.

In the meantime the chalice is left on the table in front of Tyrion.  And while other people may be milling about the party, we know that Tyrion stays at his seat because we're given Tyrion's POV.   So the poison would have to have been delivered without Tyrion's knowledge.

While I suppose it's possible that someone could have surreptitiously dropped the poison then, we have a strong reason to believe that it couldnt' have been Olenna.  The chalice is three feet high and seated on top of a table.  Olenna is the height of a child.  Perhaps only slightly taller than Tyrion, who needs to stand on his chair just to reach the chalice.

It's possible that Olenna could have had someone else drop the poison, perhaps Garlan or one of her guards, but that's a pretty big task to assign someone, to poison the king or even Tyrion.  Would she have even dared utter this plan aloud?  Would someone like Garlan have been willing to use poison on either Tyrion or the King?  Perhaps Garlan is shown to be so friendly and courteous to Tyrion is George's way of showing that Garlan would not have committed such a deed.

And as for the pie, the opportunity to poison that is much less.  The pie is put in front of Tyrion and even though he tries to leave the table at one point, that's when Joffrey stops him and takes a bite of his pie.  I think Tyrion would have been alerted to anyone trying to poison his pie.  Unless of course the pie was poisoned from someone to his right when his attention was directed to his left when Joffrey was approaching him.

That's why I keep turning to Sansa.  Sansa had the opportunity being the only person positioned to the right of Tyrion, Tyrion's attention was often focused on his left in the direction of the king, giving Sansa the best opportunity to drop the poison without his knowledge.  And of course Sansa was also directly in possession of the poison.  I think it's a tad suspicious that Sansa would not have come to the conclusion that black amethysts from Asshai were poison.  Especially when Dontos tells her point blank that the amethysts were justice and vengeance for her father's death.

Sansa also had the best motive to either poison Joffrey or Tryion.  She hated Joffrey and wanted vengeance on Joffrey especially after she realized that he had their family's sword.  She also desperately wanted to be free of her marriage to Tyrion.

So the only thing stopping the reader from coming to the conclusion that Sansa is the poisoner is that we're given her POV in the next chapter and she never acknowledges that she tried to poison either Joffrey or Tyrion.  Which makes me wonder if George is deliberately making Sansa an unreliable POV.  Which is what he teases later when she falsely remebers getting a kiss from the Hound.  In this case her unreliable POV would take the form of her repressing her action, that she committed a murder.  And the clue to her repressing this action is the hysterical laughter that threatened to come up when she was told that she had a good heart.

The hairnet only makes sense if Tyrion becomes the eventual target. If Joffrey was the target all along and Lady Olenne is already in on this plan, then the need for the hairnet is gone. He can just give it to her or pick some out-of-the-way dead drop the morning of the wedding.

The only way the hairnet makes sense is if Petyr does not yet know who the victim or the poisoner will be. All he knows is that he needs all four elements -- Sansa, the poisoner, the victim and the poison -- in the same place at the same time. How is he supposed to do this? He can't count on being able to deliver the poison to anyone once the chaos of the battle dies down, so he needs to ensure that at least the two known elements -- Sansa and the poison -- will be together at the right time, which at this point is the wedding. Can he just give it to Dontos? No. He's likely to sell it and go on a bender. Can he give it to Olenna? No. She could use it to double-cross him, and at the same time she would think that it could be used to double-cross him. Petyr is the one responsible for deliberately getting Margaery into the mess after all, and he never even confessed his lie -- they learned it through Sansa. Can he give it to someone more reliable, like Brune? No. He is known at the capital, so he can't deliver it when the time comes, nor can Littlefinger trust some other go-between of Brune's choosing.

The only way Littlefinger can be certain that Sansa and the poison will be at the right place at the right time is by giving it to her without her knowing what it is, just that it is the key to her salvation. Maybe at this point Joffrey was the target since Tyrion is presumed dead, although I doubt it because he is too valuable of a piece. But once Tyrion recovers, he is the obvious target because he is the only one smart enough to discover all of Petyr's crimes with the crown's gold.

And then notice how deftly he creates the situation so that Tyrion becomes the clear and present danger to House Tyrell, which he wouldn't have done if he is already in league with Olenna to kill Joffrey. Remember, this plan to bring Sansa to Highgarden isn't supposed to happen until after the wedding. So in the first place, Olenna would not even consider this a possibility when she is setting up Tyrion, and thus Sansa, as suspects in Joffrey's murder. Nor would Littlefinger need to rat this plan out to the Lannisters, which can only result in her being quick-married to one of them, when he could just as easily tell Olenna that her talk about taking Sansa to Highgarden is causing her to rethink wearing the hairnet, which will send Margaery to her doom.

So over and over again, we see the facts on the page dispute the wine and confirm the pie. None of this is of any concern -- not the hairnet, the Willas plan, not Sansa's big "reveal" about Joffrey -- if the plan is to do the wine, but all of it makes perfect sense when it becomes Tyrion and the pie after Littlefinger manipulated the situation to make it so.

[Frey family reunion]

On 5/12/2022 at 10:57 AM, John Suburbs said:

Do you see how quickly his pie is served? The big pie was cut (and I hope it's clear that the big pie with live birds in it was not for eating), then the doves, applause, music, whirl (a merry whirl at that -- so much for Joffrey's eagerness to start beating the tar out of Margaery), and the pie is served -- all in a matter of seconds. This means the slice of pie was already cut and plated and was right behind Tyrion during the ceremony -- right where Lady Olenna is standing.

The problem with that scenario is that we'd have to make a lot of assumptions without any support from the text.  The biggest being was that the pie was situated directly behind Tyrion.  I think the more likely scenario is that the servants started bringing the pies from wherever they were bringing the rest of the food, and there is no indication that it was ever situated behind the main table on the dias.  

So we have no reason to assume that at the time Olenna was standing with her cane that she would have any access to the pies which the servants had not yet begun to serve.  

I suppose it's possible that there was some scenario where Olenna could have poisoned the pie, we're just not given the proper support to come to that conclusion.  

But regardless Olenna being at the main table shouldn't be any great revelation.  Presumably she was always at the main table being the family of the bride.  We're told in Jaime's POV that the bride's family, the groom's family, Pycelle, and the High Septon were all seated at the main table.  We're also told that a dozen people were seated closer to Joffrey than Tyrion.  So we pretty much know who was at the main table:  Joffrey, Margaery, Mace, Alerie, Olenna, Garlan, Leonette, Tywin, Cersei, Kevan, Tommen, the High Septon, Maester Pycelle, Tyrion, Sansa.  And they were seated at a long table on the dias, overlooking everyone else.

ETA: as for your time element of a number of seconds, that's another thing that really isn't supported.  All we know is that Joffrey and Margaery cut the pie, they begin to dance, and then a servant places the pie in front of Tyrion.  We dont' know exactly how long that process took.  For all we know the servants were all standing their with the pies in their hand or on a tray just waiting for the right moment to bring them out to the main table.  There is no reason to assume that they would first been laid at another table directly behind the intended recipient of said pie.

 

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Can he just give it to Dontos? No. He's likely to sell it and go on a bender.

Yet he does give it to Dontos to give it to Sansa (if indeed it was Petyr who gave Dontos the hairnet).

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Can he give it to Olenna? No. She could use it to double-cross him, and at the same time she would think that it could be used to double-cross him.

Here is where I'm confused.  At what point do you think Petyr would have let Olenna in on his plan to poison Tyrion?  And if Petyr was so concerned that Olenna would double cross him why let her in on the plan at all?  

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

The only way Littlefinger can be certain that Sansa and the poison will be at the right place at the right time is by giving it to her without her knowing what it is, just that it is the key to her salvation.

Sansa being clueless to the import of the necklace seems to somewhat diminish Sansa's intelligence though, doesn't it?  If it's so important that Sansa doesn't realize that the hairnet contains poison, why does Dontos tell her that it is vengeance and justice for her father?  I mean Sansa is definitely sheltered but she isn't stupid.  

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And then notice how deftly he creates the situation so that Tyrion becomes the clear and present danger to House Tyrell, which he wouldn't have done if he is already in league with Olenna to kill Joffrey. Remember, this plan to bring Sansa to Highgarden isn't supposed to happen until after the wedding. So in the first place, Olenna would not even consider this a possibility when she is setting up Tyrion, and thus Sansa, as suspects in Joffrey's murder. Nor would Littlefinger need to rat this plan out to the Lannisters, which can only result in her being quick-married to one of them, when he could just as easily tell Olenna that her talk about taking Sansa to Highgarden is causing her to rethink wearing the hairnet, which will send Margaery to her doom.

This is another part that I don't really get.  Why would Petyr have had to set up a convaluted plan to motivate the Tyrells to kill Tyrion?  Didn't they already have a motivation?  That the Lannisters stole Sansa out from under them by marrying her to Tyrion before they had a chance to bring her to Highgarden?  Once that happened, the Tyrells had a motive to kill Tyrion, make it look like an accident, and get Sansa to Highgarden before the Lannisters had a chance to remarry her to someone else.

[the trees have eyes]

6 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

That's interesting, I was always under the assumption that all of the gems in the hairnet were poison.  What leads you to conclude that only one was?

Well, unless you mean to strike at more than one target you only need one.  More is waste - or overkill if you prefer.  I assume the poison is rare and expensive and not something that is available in large amounts to be wasted so casually.  And the black amethysts only work as a disguise to smuggle the poison in if Sansa can walk around wearing the hairnet without anyone becoming suspicious as to what those peculiar gems are or, for the initiated (Oberyn or Pycelle, say), what the hell she is doing with a hairnet full of poison at a wedding feast.

[Aebram]

So, getting back to the original topic ...

Here are a few that I think we can all agree have been solved.  Technically, they might not be considered "mysteries," since the questions were never raised by any character.  They're just interesting subplots that were unknown until some reader discovered them.  But I think they belong on this list.

  1.  Alleras, the maester-in-training, is actually Oberyn Martell's daughter Sarella Sand in disguise.

  2.  The old black tomcat that prowls the Red Keep is actually Balerion, which as a kitten belonged to Rhaegar's daughter Rhaenys before she was killed during the sack of King's Landing.

  3.  Wyman Manderly secretly set up several members of House Frey to be killed, butchered, and cooked into the wedding pies that he served to their relatives at Ramsay Bolton's wedding feast.

I'm proud that I figured out #2 and #3 for myself before I read them here.  But my hat is off to whoever noticed #1; that is one careful reader!

I came rather late to this party; sometimes it seems like all the good theories are taken.   But I keep trying ...

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

The problem with that scenario is that we'd have to make a lot of assumptions without any support from the text.  The biggest being was that the pie was situated directly behind Tyrion.  I think the more likely scenario is that the servants started bringing the pies from wherever they were bringing the rest of the food, and there is no indication that it was ever situated behind the main table on the dias.  

So we have no reason to assume that at the time Olenna was standing with her cane that she would have any access to the pies which the servants had not yet begun to serve.  

I suppose it's possible that there was some scenario where Olenna could have poisoned the pie, we're just not given the proper support to come to that conclusion.  

But regardless Olenna being at the main table shouldn't be any great revelation.  Presumably she was always at the main table being the family of the bride.  We're told in Jaime's POV that the bride's family, the groom's family, Pycelle, and the High Septon were all seated at the main table.  We're also told that a dozen people were seated closer to Joffrey than Tyrion.  So we pretty much know who was at the main table:  Joffrey, Margaery, Mace, Alerie, Olenna, Garlan, Leonette, Tywin, Cersei, Kevan, Tommen, the High Septon, Maester Pycelle, Tyrion, Sansa.  And they were seated at a long table on the dias, overlooking everyone else.

ETA: as for your time element of a number of seconds, that's another thing that really isn't supported.  All we know is that Joffrey and Margaery cut the pie, they begin to dance, and then a servant places the pie in front of Tyrion.  We dont' know exactly how long that process took.  For all we know the servants were all standing their with the pies in their hand or on a tray just waiting for the right moment to bring them out to the main table.  There is no reason to assume that they would first been laid at another table directly behind the intended recipient of said pie.

 

The pie had to have been right behind Tyrion, already cut and plated. How else could it have been served so quickly? It literally goes, cut, pigeons, applause, music, twirl and then the pie -- all in a matter of seconds. And it isn't much of a stretch to see that Lady Olenna could have orchestrated this whole thing, given that they have a thousand pies to serve and the night is getting long. And, of course, where was Lady O's last known position right before all this happened? Right behind Tyrion, right where the pie will be. So sorry, but we have every reason to assume this, especially considering there is no plausible, or even possible, way to do the wine without being seen. It is literally right in front of Sansa's nose, and there are a thousand people with direct line-of-site from the opposite direction. Even if by some miracle they pulled this off, the risk is far too high given that the consequences of failure are hideous torture followed by certain death, for Lady O and perhaps the entire Tyrell family -- which, of course, will lead to the very blood in the streets that they supposedly are trying to avoid with all of this.

Yes, of course Lady O was at the main table. And as grandmother of the bride should would be far closer to the royal couple than everybody but Mace and Allerie. But at this particular moment, she is not seated in the center where she should be at this formal event in the feast. She is a dozen places to the left, right behind Tyrion, right where his pie will be. And I suspect that this was the real purpose of the dwarf joust: it was her signal that the pie is coming, so get into position.

From the dwarf joust on, everything unfolds in real time. The pie was cut, the crowd applauded, the band began to play, Joffrey twirled Margaery, merrily, and the pie is served. No matter how you warp it, this takes far less time than to walk a pie all the way from the kitchens, which would not be anywhere near the throneroom by any stretch of the imagination -- and in all likelihood were coming from the Kitchen Keep, which is across the courtyard from the main castle.

So any way you look at it, the pie is at least plausible, unlike the wine which simply cannot have been poisoned by anyone without Sansa, if not dozens of other people, seeing. And we haven't even got into the fact that it was the Tyrells who gave the chalice in the first place, intentionally complicating the poisoning and upping the risk substantially, while at the same time needlessly placing Margaery's life in danger too.

And there is no reason to think they would be lying on another table behind the head table. They would be in the servants' hands, ready to be served immediately, because that's what Lady O does ("the cheese will be served when I want it served, and I want it served now.") Now, instead of worrying about a thousand pairs of eyes, she only has to make sure one person is looking up at the doves: a quick pinch and it's done, in the blink of an eye. And she even has a near-certainty of where Tyrion will take his one and only bite: the pointy end, which is also the easiest to poison.

And if you think there is no reason to assume any of this, well there is not reason to assume anyone but Tyrion got their pie, which is more than passing suspicious.

 

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Yet he does give it to Dontos to give it to Sansa (if indeed it was Petyr who gave Dontos the hairnet).

Yes, he gives it to Dontos, to immediately bring to Sansa. He doesn't give it to Dontos to hold onto it until they figure out what to do with it. Petyr has all kinds of ways to determine that this exchange is made, but he cannot keep eyes on Dontos all the time to make sure he still has it.

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Here is where I'm confused.  At what point do you think Petyr would have let Olenna in on his plan to poison Tyrion?  And if Petyr was so concerned that Olenna would double cross him why let her in on the plan at all?  

Lady Olenna's motivation to kill Tyrion does not emerge until after he is married to Sansa and after the Red Wedding, when Sansa becomes sole heir to Winterfell (as far as anyone knows). And this situation was carefully orchestrated by Littlefinger, who would have no other reason to rat out the plan to bring her to Highgarden because that wasn't going to happen until after the wedding, after he had already taken her. So now, Petyr has less reason to worry about Lady O double-crossing him because her motivation to kill Tyrion is just as strong as his own, stronger in fact. And she still isn't getting the poison, aka the evidence, until right before the feast, when he is safe aboard his ship. At the same time, Lady O doesn't want the poison too soon either, since that can be used to double-cross her; thus, the wait until virtually the last minute to pull all of this together.

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Sansa being clueless to the import of the necklace seems to somewhat diminish Sansa's intelligence though, doesn't it?  If it's so important that Sansa doesn't realize that the hairnet contains poison, why does Dontos tell her that it is vengeance and justice for her father?  I mean Sansa is definitely sheltered but she isn't stupid.  

All Sansa needs to know is that if she doesn't wear the hairnet she can't go home. She does not need to know why or how. In fact, it would be more dangerous for Petyr, and her, if she did.

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This is another part that I don't really get.  Why would Petyr have had to set up a convaluted plan to motivate the Tyrells to kill Tyrion?  Didn't they already have a motivation?  That the Lannisters stole Sansa out from under them by marrying her to Tyrion before they had a chance to bring her to Highgarden?  Once that happened, the Tyrells had a motive to kill Tyrion, make it look like an accident, and get Sansa to Highgarden before the Lannisters had a chance to remarry her to someone else.

Why would the Tyrells need to kill Tyrion before he became lord-regent-in-waiting to Winterfell? But yes, their (and by this I mean Lady Olenna, who is the only Tyrell involved in this plot) motivation emerged only after he married Sansa, which was orchestrated by Petyr -- which, when seen through lens of the wine theory, is completely counter to his goals and objectives. 

Also, Lady Olenna has no practical means to get Sansa to Highgarden after the murder -- not without little birds seeing. They don't know about the secret stairway, they don't have anyone who can bring her out safely. Their only option is right through the main gate, where all the Lannister guards are. So once the Willas plan was blown, she had to give up on Sansa. She's probably none too happy that she's with Littlefinger, but it's better than leaving her with Tywin.

And even more evidence that contradicts the wine: why is Lady Olenna even thinking about bring Sansa to Highgarden? If she doesn't know that Petyr is going to snatch her, then she obviously knows that setting up Tyrion for the murder will also implicate Sansa. So there is no way anyone, let alone a smart cookie like Olenna, would expect she could just casually head off to Highgarden.

[Nevets]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The pie had to have been right behind Tyrion, already cut and plated. How else could it have been served so quickly? It literally goes, cut, pigeons, applause, music, twirl and then the pie -- all in a matter of seconds. And it isn't much of a stretch to see that Lady Olenna could have orchestrated this whole thing, given that they have a thousand pies to serve and the night is getting long. And, of course, where was Lady O's last known position right before all this happened? Right behind Tyrion, right where the pie will be. So sorry, but we have every reason to assume this, especially considering there is no plausible, or even possible, way to do the wine without being seen. It is literally right in front of Sansa's nose, and there are a thousand people with direct line-of-site from the opposite direction. Even if by some miracle they pulled this off, the risk is far too high given that the consequences of failure are hideous torture followed by certain death, for Lady O and perhaps the entire Tyrell family -- which, of course, will lead to the very blood in the streets that they supposedly are trying to avoid with all of this.

Yes, of course Lady O was at the main table. And as grandmother of the bride should would be far closer to the royal couple than everybody but Mace and Allerie. But at this particular moment, she is not seated in the center where she should be at this formal event in the feast. She is a dozen places to the left, right behind Tyrion, right where his pie will be. And I suspect that this was the real purpose of the dwarf joust: it was her signal that the pie is coming, so get into position.

From the dwarf joust on, everything unfolds in real time. The pie was cut, the crowd applauded, the band began to play, Joffrey twirled Margaery, merrily, and the pie is served. No matter how you warp it, this takes far less time than to walk a pie all the way from the kitchens, which would not be anywhere near the throneroom by any stretch of the imagination -- and in all likelihood were coming from the Kitchen Keep, which is across the courtyard from the main castle.

So any way you look at it, the pie is at least plausible, unlike the wine which simply cannot have been poisoned by anyone without Sansa, if not dozens of other people, seeing. And we haven't even got into the fact that it was the Tyrells who gave the chalice in the first place, intentionally complicating the poisoning and upping the risk substantially, while at the same time needlessly placing Margaery's life in danger too.

And there is no reason to think they would be lying on another table behind the head table. They would be in the servants' hands, ready to be served immediately, because that's what Lady O does ("the cheese will be served when I want it served, and I want it served now.") Now, instead of worrying about a thousand pairs of eyes, she only has to make sure one person is looking up at the doves: a quick pinch and it's done, in the blink of an eye. And she even has a near-certainty of where Tyrion will take his one and only bite: the pointy end, which is also the easiest to poison.

And if you think there is no reason to assume any of this, well there is not reason to assume anyone but Tyrion got their pie, which is more than passing suspicious.

 

Why the assumption that Olenna has to be the one to administer the poison.  I've always assumed it was Garlan.  He's trusted family, tall enough to put the poison in the chalice, and obscure enough that no one will be paying attention to him 

The poison was most likely administered during the pie cutting; the one with the doves.  As per Balon Swann, everybody's attention was on that, not the chalice, which I believe was over by Sansa and Tyrion, and Garlan was seated next to them, giving him access to the chalice when nobody is paying attention. 

It shouldn't be that difficult to slip a small crystal into a large chalice if people's attention is elsewhere, and I suspect he practiced doing exactly that.  Margaery can receive a signal not to drink.  "Rains of Castamere" may have been that signal. 

Shortly after the doves' release, Joffrey grabs the chalice and guzzles down a bunch of wine, then immediately grabs Tyrion's pie and starts eating, at which point he begins choking.  It's a very short period of time, not that much longer than with Cressen.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, he gives it to Dontos, to immediately bring to Sansa. He doesn't give it to Dontos to hold onto it until they figure out what to do with it. Petyr has all kinds of ways to determine that this exchange is made, but he cannot keep eyes on Dontos all the time to make sure he still has it.

Lady Olenna's motivation to kill Tyrion does not emerge until after he is married to Sansa and after the Red Wedding, when Sansa becomes sole heir to Winterfell (as far as anyone knows). And this situation was carefully orchestrated by Littlefinger, who would have no other reason to rat out the plan to bring her to Highgarden because that wasn't going to happen until after the wedding, after he had already taken her. So now, Petyr has less reason to worry about Lady O double-crossing him because her motivation to kill Tyrion is just as strong as his own, stronger in fact. And she still isn't getting the poison, aka the evidence, until right before the feast, when he is safe aboard his ship. At the same time, Lady O doesn't want the poison too soon either, since that can be used to double-cross her; thus, the wait until virtually the last minute to pull all of this together.

All Sansa needs to know is that if she doesn't wear the hairnet she can't go home. She does not need to know why or how. In fact, it would be more dangerous for Petyr, and her, if she did.

Why would the Tyrells need to kill Tyrion before he became lord-regent-in-waiting to Winterfell? But yes, their (and by this I mean Lady Olenna, who is the only Tyrell involved in this plot) motivation emerged only after he married Sansa, which was orchestrated by Petyr -- which, when seen through lens of the wine theory, is completely counter to his goals and objectives. 

Also, Lady Olenna has no practical means to get Sansa to Highgarden after the murder -- not without little birds seeing. They don't know about the secret stairway, they don't have anyone who can bring her out safely. Their only option is right through the main gate, where all the Lannister guards are. So once the Willas plan was blown, she had to give up on Sansa. She's probably none too happy that she's with Littlefinger, but it's better than leaving her with Tywin.

And even more evidence that contradicts the wine: why is Lady Olenna even thinking about bring Sansa to Highgarden? If she doesn't know that Petyr is going to snatch her, then she obviously knows that setting up Tyrion for the murder will also implicate Sansa. So there is no way anyone, let alone a smart cookie like Olenna, would expect she could just casually head off to Highgarden.

Littlefinger didn't have a plan to spirit Sansa away when he revealed the Tyrells' plans for her.  Those plans just got vaporized.  Sansa's no longer interested, and his plan won't work without her active, enthusiastic participation.  Hence the Tyrell plan's exposure.

Once Sansa married Tyrion, the Tyrells had no real remaining interest in her.  And I still can see no reason for them to be interested in Tyrion's death.  The North is nice if it's given to you, but isn't really worth going to extraordinary measures to get.  It's too poor and too far away.

And even if they are afraid of what Tywin might do in the distant future, which I doubt, the logical target there is Tywin himself.

[John Suburbs]

On 6/3/2022 at 2:19 PM, Nevets said:

Why the assumption that Olenna has to be the one to administer the poison.  I've always assumed it was Garlan.  He's trusted family, tall enough to put the poison in the chalice, and obscure enough that no one will be paying attention to him 

The poison was most likely administered during the pie cutting; the one with the doves.  As per Balon Swann, everybody's attention was on that, not the chalice, which I believe was over by Sansa and Tyrion, and Garlan was seated next to them, giving him access to the chalice when nobody is paying attention. 

It shouldn't be that difficult to slip a small crystal into a large chalice if people's attention is elsewhere, and I suspect he practiced doing exactly that.  Margaery can receive a signal not to drink.  "Rains of Castamere" may have been that signal. 

 

 

Garlan could not have done it. He is three places away from Sansa and the chalice. Also, Garlan is not obscure. He is the hero of the Blackwater and he is front and center at all the drama surrounding Joff, Tyrion and the chalice. Also, he is an anointed knight from the family that is the font of chivalry in the realm. So not only is he not a kingslayer, there is no way he would stoop to poison -- the weapon of women, cowards and eunuchs -- to kill a foe, especially when that foe is a skinny, unskilled teenager, and his king to boot. And since this whole plan relies on the spat between Joffrey and Tyrion, why would Garlan be trying to defuse it? Garlan is not the poisoner. Lady Olenna, meanwhile, is right where the pie is, and she can easily do it all by herself. No need to risk anyone else, let alone her beloved family.

Yes, the chalice is not near the pie-cutting. But it is in direct view of literally everyone in the room. And again, Garlan would have to reach over Leonette, over Tyrion and right in front of Sansa's nose, literally in the blink of an eye, in order to do this. Even in the million-to-one chance that he is successful, this is far too risky. If just one person out of the thousand sees this, the jig is up. And the only reason it is this risky is because the Tyrells, at Littlefinger's direction, purposely gave the giant glittering chalice to both Joff and Margy, intentionally increasing both the risk and difficulty of this move and putting Margaery's life in danger as well.

If Garlan has to practice this drop, then literally everyone else in the room has to as well because there is no way of knowing where the chalice will be at the moment the doves are released. And then this poisoner has to screw up their courage within a moment's notice in order to carry out the most heinous crime in the land, knowing that if just one person sees this they face a hideous, torturous death and ignominious shame as a kingslayer for the rest of history. And this is even counting on the chalice being anywhere near someone who can do the poisoning.

The cutting ceremony is a natural time for the royal couple to share a toast, as indeed, one was called out. So how is Margaery just supposed to not drink, only to then have the king drink and drop dead moments later? Forget about blaming the poisoning on anyone else. And if she has gotten this signal, why is she purposely calling Joffrey to her side to share a toast?

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Shortly after the doves' release, Joffrey grabs the chalice and guzzles down a bunch of wine, then immediately grabs Tyrion's pie and starts eating, at which point he begins choking.  It's a very short period of time, not that much longer than with Cressen.

Yes it is much longer than Cressen. Just read the text. Joffrey drinks several large chugs of wine before Margaery even begins her call to come to her for Lord Buckler's toast. So right off the bat we have Joffrey consuming vastly larger quantities of wine that is supposed to be so heavily poisoned that is has turned deep purple and he shows no reaction for at least twice as long. Then he makes a quip, grabs pie and eats it. Now we are approaching three times longer, and all we have is a small kof, which coincidentally arrives a few seconds after he puts pie in his mouth but has not yet swallowed. Then, it's good, grabs more pie, stuffs it into his mouth. Now we are three-and-a-half, maybe four, times longer, and still just a few kofs. Bit dry, needs washing down. This is the moment the poisoned pie actually enters his throat -- more than five times longer than Cressen, who is on the ground gasping for breath at this point -- and literally one koffed sentence later, Joffrey starts choking -- virtually the identical reaction that Cressen showed. Sorry man, but these are the facts. It's right there in the text, plain as day.

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Littlefinger didn't have a plan to spirit Sansa away when he revealed the Tyrells' plans for her.  Those plans just got vaporized.  Sansa's no longer interested, and his plan won't work without her active, enthusiastic participation.  Hence the Tyrell plan's exposure.

Really, so when he sends Dontos with the hairnet to tell her it will bring her home, it was just a lie? And then he just changed his mind?

When Sansa reveals the Willas plan to Dontos, who then relays it to Littlefinger, all LF had to do is go to Olenna and tell her that Sansa is thinking of not wearing the hairnet because she thinks she is going to Highgarden, and if she does that, Margaery is a goner. Going to the Lannisters resulted in the extremely obvious result of her being quick married to one of them, and Tyrion is the lead candidate at this point, which only complicates the simple poison-extraction plan to get a still-maiden Sansa so that he now has to come up with a poison-framing-extraction plan for a no-longer-maiden Sansa -- and all to circumvent something that would not have harmed his original plan in the slightest.

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Once Sansa married Tyrion, the Tyrells had no real remaining interest in her.  And I still can see no reason for them to be interested in Tyrion's death.  The North is nice if it's given to you, but isn't really worth going to extraordinary measures to get.  It's too poor and too far away.

And even if they are afraid of what Tywin might do in the distant future, which I doubt, the logical target there is Tywin himself.

Once Sansa marries Tyrion, Tyrion becomes the chief threat to Tyrell hegemony. The goal is not for the Tyrells to get the north but to prevent Tywin from getting it. And it's not that they (by which I mean Lady Olenna) are no longer interested in her but that they know they can't get her, so it's better to let Littlefinger have her for now since leaving her with Tywin means she just gets married off to another Lannister.

Killing Tywin would be nice, but this doesn't change the basic equation here. It just puts another Lannister -- probably Cersei -- in charge of this burgeoning empire that has tipped the balance of power to Casterly Rock. The goal is to blunt that massing of power, not just to kill this or that Lannister.