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@John Suburbs A few questions. 

Sansa is seated next to Tyrion.  If he is choking to death, all eyes will be on him, and consequently on Sansa as well.  Plus, she will almost certainly be trying to assist her husband in distress.  She's not going anywhere.  So why did Dontos clearly expect to be able to pick her up, and Littlefinger expect him to be able to?

How did Littlefinger know Joffrey was dead and not Tyrion?

The plot has been in the works for some time.  Since the Blackwater at the latest and probably earlier.  So why are the Tyrells or Littlefinger interested in killing Tyrion back then?  And if not, then why go the trouble and expense of the hairnet, with its several crystals of an expensive and hard to obtain poison?

Why do the Tyrells want Tyrion dead that badly at all?  Possible actions by Tywin 20 years hence don't count.

Why not poison Tyrion's wine.  It's probably easier to access, and he's a heavy drinker. 

Why poison Tyrion at all?  He's not difficult to get to or well protected.  The equivalent of 50 bucks and a free weapon should do the trick.

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39 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

“Slaying a savage giant” doesn’t have to be literal. It may have just meant Sansa ripping the head off of Sweetrobin’s doll, or that could have been a red herring for Sansa condemning Littlefinger (who’s house sigil used to be a titan) to death at Winterfell.

Not to be a killjoy, but the mysteries I was referring to are those that lasted at least more than one book, and therefore had time for the fandom to speculate about. 

How was Dontos planning on getting Sansa out of Kings Landing and who was he working for or with?  At the end of ACOK these were open questions.   We now know that Littlefinger was essentially the answer to both. 

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3 hours ago, Nevets said:

How was Dontos planning on getting Sansa out of Kings Landing and who was he working for or with?  At the end of ACOK these were open questions.   We now know that Littlefinger was essentially the answer to both. 

Moreover, what with being an enemy captive and with her sitting next to the husband she clearly does not want, rather than a prize to be won would she not instead be the most obvious suspect when Tyrion is poisoned next to her? If you want to murder Tyrion and Sansa is at least one of the objectives, choose any of the many times they are nowhere near each other rather than the time where everyone can see them sitting unhappily together.

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21 hours ago, Nevets said:

@John Suburbs A few questions. 

Sansa is seated next to Tyrion.  If he is choking to death, all eyes will be on him, and consequently on Sansa as well.  Plus, she will almost certainly be trying to assist her husband in distress.  She's not going anywhere.  So why did Dontos clearly expect to be able to pick her up, and Littlefinger expect him to be able to?

How did Littlefinger know Joffrey was dead and not Tyrion?

The plot has been in the works for some time.  Since the Blackwater at the latest and probably earlier.  So why are the Tyrells or Littlefinger interested in killing Tyrion back then?  And if not, then why go the trouble and expense of the hairnet, with its several crystals of an expensive and hard to obtain poison?

Why do the Tyrells want Tyrion dead that badly at all?  Possible actions by Tywin 20 years hence don't count.

Why not poison Tyrion's wine.  It's probably easier to access, and he's a heavy drinker. 

Why poison Tyrion at all?  He's not difficult to get to or well protected.  The equivalent of 50 bucks and a free weapon should do the trick.

Sansa as a 13yo girl and doesn't know the first thing about helping someone who is choking -- least of all a husband who she doesn't care for anyway. She will shrink away in fear as others, mostly men, rush in to help. This is exactly what happened with Joffrey, who was also right next to her, so there is no reason to think she wouldn't do the same with Tyrion.

The conversation between LF and Sansa on the boat happens at dawn the next day -- six, eight, maybe ten hours after the murder. Forget the bells. LF has plenty of time to get regular reports all night long about what is happening in the Red Keep and still make the rendezvous at dawn. This is the most significant thing he has ever done, so of course he is not going to risk himself until he is certain that the coast is absolutely clear. Otherwise, he would have just picked her up along the riverbank and been miles out to sea by the morning.

The plot was in the works before Sansa received the letter telling her to meet in the godwood, when she was still betrothed to Joffrey and Margaery was married to Renly. Neither Lady O (not the Tyrells, just Lady O) nor Littlefinger were planning to kill Tyrion at that time (well, maybe Littlefinger was, but that changed when Tyrion was presumed killed in the battle). Lady O's motivation to kill Tyrion did not arise until Sansa had married Tyrion and the Red Wedding put him in a position to become lord regent of Winterfell. That is what she is trying to prevent.

The hairnet was the only way Littlefinger could ensure the poison's safety until it was time to use it. He can't keep it himself, since there might not be another chance to deliver it once the chaos from the battle cools down. He can't give it to Dontos. He might sell it and go on a bender. He can't give it to his eventual poisoner, nor would the poisoner want it ahead of time, because it could be used to incriminate one or the other. The best thing is to give it to Sansa now but without telling her what it is, just that it is the key to her salvation. That way, he can ensure that Sansa, the poison, the eventual poisoner and the eventual victim will be at the same place at the same time, and the poisoner does not have the poison until it's too late for either of them to rat one another out.

Tyrion's wine is on the head table where multiple witnesses can see it. The pie is behind the table, completely inconspicuous except to the one person holding it. Also, with the wine, there is no way of knowing if Tyrion will be eating anything at the same time he is drinking, and the whole purpose of using the strangler is to make it seem like the victim choked. And Tyrion will most definitely eat the pie, since, "it's ill luck not to eat the pie."

Tyrion had to be poisoned at the wedding in order to create the necessary diversion to get Sansa out of the Red Keep without a little bird seeing. Just killing him at any old time simply means Sansa is married off to the next Lannister, and that doesn't do Petyr or Lady O any good.

 

Now my questions for you:

Why did Dontos say that Joffrey choked on pie if the poison was in the wine and the pie had nothing to do with it?

Why does Joffrey show no reaction to the heavily poisoned wine, but only starts choking after he eats the pie?

Why would Lady Olenna trust the very man who lied to her and got her into this mess in the first place? And why would she continue to trust him without question when it turns out that his "plan" is to use the giant chalice -- which was a gift from the Tyrells and not only is more difficult to poison then a regular goblet but opens up the very real possibility that Margaery would be poisoned too -- and use that to drop the poison as it is sitting in plain view of no less than a thousand witnesses, all glittering and bejeweled like a giant fishing lure? And all while she is taking these enormous risks for herself and her entire family, Petyr is safe and sound on his boat way out in the bay ready to collect his prize, or split to Braavos if anything goes wrong and Lady O and all that she holds near and dear to her heart are being marched down to the black cells to have their eyes gouged out.

How could LF possibly know that just by staging the dwarf joust that Joffrey would name Tyrion his cupbearer and Tyrion would be anywhere near the chalice? How could he know Joffrey would place the chalice anywhere that it could not just be poisoned, but poisoned with no one seeing?

Who poisoned the chalice? When did they do it, and how?

If Lady O is in on this plan by the time of the Blackwater, then why is she peppering Sansa to reveal the "truth" about Joffrey at their dinner when she has already decided to kill him? Why didn't Petyr just give her the poison? 

Why did Petyr spill the Sansa-Willas plan to the Lannisters -- who would obviously ruin his plan for her by marrying her to one of their own upon receiving this news, and Tyrion is the only viable match -- when he could have easily gone to his co-conspirator and told them that Sansa is having doubts about the hairnet, which would certainly foul their plan to kill Joffrey -- and again, only because he inexplicably gave Sansa the poison instead of just giving to Lady O?

Why didn't Lady O just hector her son mercilessly to undo the Margaery-Joffrey betrothal like the way she did with the Cersei-Willas plan? Why is being "too used" a good enough reason to break an engagement but getting the snot beaten out of your daughter on a daily basis is not?

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sansa as a 13yo girl and doesn't know the first thing about helping someone who is choking -- least of all a husband who she doesn't care for anyway. She will shrink away in fear as others, mostly men, rush in to help. This is exactly what happened with Joffrey, who was also right next to her, so there is no reason to think she wouldn't do the same with Tyrion.

The conversation between LF and Sansa on the boat happens at dawn the next day -- six, eight, maybe ten hours after the murder. Forget the bells. LF has plenty of time to get regular reports all night long about what is happening in the Red Keep and still make the rendezvous at dawn. This is the most significant thing he has ever done, so of course he is not going to risk himself until he is certain that the coast is absolutely clear. Otherwise, he would have just picked her up along the riverbank and been miles out to sea by the morning.

The plot was in the works before Sansa received the letter telling her to meet in the godwood, when she was still betrothed to Joffrey and Margaery was married to Renly. Neither Lady O (not the Tyrells, just Lady O) nor Littlefinger were planning to kill Tyrion at that time (well, maybe Littlefinger was, but that changed when Tyrion was presumed killed in the battle). Lady O's motivation to kill Tyrion did not arise until Sansa had married Tyrion and the Red Wedding put him in a position to become lord regent of Winterfell. That is what she is trying to prevent.

The hairnet was the only way Littlefinger could ensure the poison's safety until it was time to use it. He can't keep it himself, since there might not be another chance to deliver it once the chaos from the battle cools down. He can't give it to Dontos. He might sell it and go on a bender. He can't give it to his eventual poisoner, nor would the poisoner want it ahead of time, because it could be used to incriminate one or the other. The best thing is to give it to Sansa now but without telling her what it is, just that it is the key to her salvation. That way, he can ensure that Sansa, the poison, the eventual poisoner and the eventual victim will be at the same place at the same time, and the poisoner does not have the poison until it's too late for either of them to rat one another out.

Tyrion's wine is on the head table where multiple witnesses can see it. The pie is behind the table, completely inconspicuous except to the one person holding it. Also, with the wine, there is no way of knowing if Tyrion will be eating anything at the same time he is drinking, and the whole purpose of using the strangler is to make it seem like the victim choked. And Tyrion will most definitely eat the pie, since, "it's ill luck not to eat the pie."

Tyrion had to be poisoned at the wedding in order to create the necessary diversion to get Sansa out of the Red Keep without a little bird seeing. Just killing him at any old time simply means Sansa is married off to the next Lannister, and that doesn't do Petyr or Lady O any good.

 

Now my questions for you:

Why did Dontos say that Joffrey choked on pie if the poison was in the wine and the pie had nothing to do with it?

Why does Joffrey show no reaction to the heavily poisoned wine, but only starts choking after he eats the pie?

Why would Lady Olenna trust the very man who lied to her and got her into this mess in the first place? And why would she continue to trust him without question when it turns out that his "plan" is to use the giant chalice -- which was a gift from the Tyrells and not only is more difficult to poison then a regular goblet but opens up the very real possibility that Margaery would be poisoned too -- and use that to drop the poison as it is sitting in plain view of no less than a thousand witnesses, all glittering and bejeweled like a giant fishing lure? And all while she is taking these enormous risks for herself and her entire family, Petyr is safe and sound on his boat way out in the bay ready to collect his prize, or split to Braavos if anything goes wrong and Lady O and all that she holds near and dear to her heart are being marched down to the black cells to have their eyes gouged out.

How could LF possibly know that just by staging the dwarf joust that Joffrey would name Tyrion his cupbearer and Tyrion would be anywhere near the chalice? How could he know Joffrey would place the chalice anywhere that it could not just be poisoned, but poisoned with no one seeing?

Who poisoned the chalice? When did they do it, and how?

If Lady O is in on this plan by the time of the Blackwater, then why is she peppering Sansa to reveal the "truth" about Joffrey at their dinner when she has already decided to kill him? Why didn't Petyr just give her the poison? 

Why did Petyr spill the Sansa-Willas plan to the Lannisters -- who would obviously ruin his plan for her by marrying her to one of their own upon receiving this news, and Tyrion is the only viable match -- when he could have easily gone to his co-conspirator and told them that Sansa is having doubts about the hairnet, which would certainly foul their plan to kill Joffrey -- and again, only because he inexplicably gave Sansa the poison instead of just giving to Lady O?

Why didn't Lady O just hector her son mercilessly to undo the Margaery-Joffrey betrothal like the way she did with the Cersei-Willas plan? Why is being "too used" a good enough reason to break an engagement but getting the snot beaten out of your daughter on a daily basis is not?

 

 

 

I agree with you, but I think there are 2 important things to add. 

If the tyrells and lf were together the when it becomes public knowledge that lf is in the vale with a bastard daughter nobody knew about they would immediately suspect it was Sansa. 

 

One of the strongest arguments there is for LF having plotted everything to happen exactly as it did is that he tells Sansa he met with joff and influenced him to do something. I am on my phone so I don't have the quote but it is interesting to keep that in mind. 

 

However, if we all can agree that nobody knew that tywin was going to die then LF planning to kill joff is mostly useless. It would be much better for him to kill tyrion. 

 

But to be honest, I have no idea why everybody was so adamant to blame tyrion and kill him when he was married to Sansa and if they could find her he was still the lannisters best bet to get the north. And there is also the fact there was a known poisoner in KL that hated the lannisters... 

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5 minutes ago, divica said:

If the tyrells and lf were together the when it becomes public knowledge that lf is in the vale with a bastard daughter nobody knew about they would immediately suspect it was Sansa. 

Sure, the game gets transparent then and Tyrell will know they've been crossed, but Alayne isn't long for this world and Sansa will soon be coming back to the public stage. There's no game anymore, Sansa and LF will be enemies of the crown. By which I mean Tyrell

6 minutes ago, divica said:

One of the strongest arguments there is for LF having plotted everything to happen exactly as it did is that he tells Sansa he met with joff and influenced him to do something. I am on my phone so I don't have the quote but it is interesting to keep that in mind. 

Real relevant. Pretty much solidifies the fact that Petyr tried to kill Tyrion

Quote

"I had to send to Braavos for them and hide them away in a brothel until the wedding. The expense was exceeded only by the bother. It is surprisingly difficult to hide a dwarf, and Joffrey . . . you can lead a king to water, but with Joff one had to splash it about before he realized he could drink it. When I told him about my little surprise, His Grace said, 'Why would I want some ugly dwarfs at my feast? I hate dwarfs.' I had to take him by the shoulder and whisper, 'Not as much as your uncle will.'"

The deck rocked beneath her feet, and Sansa felt as if the world itself had grown unsteady. "They think Tyrion poisoned Joffrey. Ser Dontos said they seized him."

Littlefinger smiled. "Widowhood will become you, Sansa."

 

8 minutes ago, divica said:

However, if we all can agree that nobody knew that tywin was going to die then LF planning to kill joff is mostly useless. 

I'd think so, but I doubt it lol

8 minutes ago, divica said:

But to be honest, I have no idea why everybody was so adamant to blame tyrion and kill him when he was married to Sansa and if they could find her he was still the lannisters best bet to get the north.

What Cersei wants, Cersei gets.

9 minutes ago, divica said:

And there is also the fact there was a known poisoner in KL that hated the lannisters...

Who crippled Olennas grandson

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22 hours ago, Nevets said:

Why do the Tyrells want Tyrion dead that badly at all?  Possible actions by Tywin 20 years hence don't count.

The Tyrell motivation to kill Tyrion takes a bit of explaining.

First, let's debunk the primary reason people think they want to kill Joffrey: that he poses a threat to Margaery. This is clearly contradicted in the text. Every interaction we see between them, right up to the moments before his death, shows that he was head-over-heels in love with her. I'd go so far as to say that Margaery is probably the only person on the planet who he does not despise. Look at the way he grabs her hand eagerly to get to the pie, then whirls her "merrily" after the doves are released. He's not faking this. We've seen him fake it before and it's laughably transparent. Even Sansa sees through it when she thought she was in love with him.

Joffrey is over the moon at getting to marry smoking hot 17yo Margaery Tyrell rather than skinny, dreary Sansa. It's like the high school freshmen math club geek is marrying the head cheerleader and prom queen. He couldn't be happier. And Margaery is nothing but an accomplished seductress, having learned from the best in the businesses: Lady Taena Merryweather and Lady Olenna Tyrell. Just the little episode with the sword shows you she knows exactly how to manipulate Joffrey -- not by telling him "no, you can't," like Sansa, Tyrion, Tywin, Cersei and virtually everyone else does, but a gentle hand and a softly worded suggestion: "Widows Wail was not meant for cutting pies." And can you just hear the sexual innuendo dripping from this one line" "Oh mighty king, what a large and powerful sword you have." Margaery is going to do everything she's been taught, both in the bedroom and in public, to flatter Joffrey, stroke his ego and stay on his good side. It will be a long, long time before she has to worry about a cross word from him, let alone violence.

And in the meantime, she is perfectly placed to isolate him from his family, drive wedges between him and his mother and uncle and grandfather, to create a schism that weakens House Lannister, which is the Tyrells real enemy.

The fact is, Joffrey doesn't just strut around the Red Keep beating highborn maidens at random. What happened to Sansa happened for reasons that are unique to her, namely:

  • Sansa and Joffrey have a bad history between them. She saw him cry on the Trident, and frankly, she goes out of her way to castigate him, criticize him, correct him and tell him no at every chance. Margaery is way too smart to do that.
  • Sansa is completely alone in the capital. She has no father, brother, family, guards, soldiers, no nobody to protect her. Margaery has the full might of Highgarden at her back, plus the fact that even Joffrey knows that if anything happens to her the alliance that is keeping his arse on the throne, and his head on his shoulders, is gone -- and if he doesn't know that yet, then Grampa Tywin and Uncle Jaime will be sure to explain it to him
  • Sansa's family is in open rebellion to the crown and her brother is winning battles in the westerlands, killing Lannisters on Lannister soil. She may be his betrothed, but she is also his hostage, and this is what happens to hostages. If Balon Greyjoy had risen in rebellion again, no one would think Ned was a mad tyrant who must be killed if he had Theon beaten, tortured or even executed. This is the reason you have hostages in the first place.

So this idea that Joffrey will beat Margaery just because he beat Sansa is nonsense. It's as silly as saying he will execute Mace just because he executed Ned. These are different people, in different circumstances with different relationships with Joffrey. Margaery is in absolutely no danger, and she won't be until long after she has become the queen mother and, regardless of whether he is hurting her or not, they can get rid of him in any number of ways so that she becomes regent and her son becomes king after her. This is a far, far better outcome for the Tyrells then that could ever get from Tommen.

Yes, I know, Lady O peppered Sansa with a bunch of questions about Joffrey, but this was just a con. She was trying to learn the truth about Sansa here, not Joffrey. She already knows all about the little lion from numerous trusted sources -- and really, the only reason she would be confused is because of the lies Littlefinger told, which he would have already confessed by now if she really is part of this plan, so she should not be confused about anything. What she doesn't know is the true nature of Sansa's character, which she needs to determine before she offers to make her the next Lady of Highgarden. I can go into this in more detail if you're curious.

 

Why does Lady O want to kill Tyrion?

Have you ever wondered why, throughout the ages, it was the riverlands that saw most of the warring? The constant rise and fall of petty kings, regular invasions from the stormlands, vale, westerlands and others? The riverlands at least has rivers to afford it some measure of protection, just like the north has its winters, Dorne its desert, mountains in the Vale and stormlands. The Reach has only one major river and the rest is league upon league of gently rolling hills and wide open farmlands, ripe for the taking.

The reason is the Reach's population. Highgarden can raise armies that are twice, even three times, the size of any other kingdom, and this is their one and only means of defense. But it can only be leveraged if there is political stability among the Reach nobility, and the best way to ensure this stability is through marriage. The Reach is basically one large extended family now, particularly among the three principal houses, Tyrell, Hightower and Redwyne: Lady O is a Redwyne, Allerie is a Hightower, but there are also Rowans, Fossoways, Beesburies and others in the mix (but lately, no Florents). This way, if the reach is attacked, the family will support one another and descend on the enemy with overwhelming force. It is telling, after all, that the only time Highgarden has fallen was when the Gardener king at the time made a series of unwise marriages for his daughters, which led to infighting among the banners and the Reach was invaded simultaneously by the westerlands, stormlands and Dorne.

Now, all of the other kingdoms and great houses married their banners as well. It's the best way to ensure their own political stability. But as long as the Reach has the population advantage, its security was ensured.

But that all started to change in the runup to Robert's Rebellion. Suddenly, you had Tullys marring Starks, Starks marrying Baratheons, Lannisters talking marriage with Martells, Martells even sniffing around (gasp) Hightowers. This changes the game radically because if these houses start forging the same familial connections that the Reach has done with its vassals, there is the potential they could overwhelm their one and only means of defense: their huge army. This is why the Tyrells supports Aerys -- not out of loyalty but because they had just as much to fear from these emerging power blocs as he did.

Things didn't work out as planned, of course, but the result was the same: Tullys married Starks and Arryns, but the big blow came from Cersei's marriage to Robert. In one move, Tywin expanded his influence beyond just the westerlands to include the crownlands, stormlands and the Iron Throne itself. Now, Tywin has extended his hold over the Riverlands and, with Tyrion's marriage to Sansa, the north as well. This puts him in control of well over half the kingdom, enough to easily overwhelm the Reach should push ever come to shove -- which is likely considering the two regions share an ill-defined border of some 500 leagues, rife territory for all manner of disputes to arise.

A word here about Tywin Lannister. For most of Lady Olenna's life, Casterly Rock was ruled by kindly old Tytos, who just wanted to get along with everybody. But suddenly, Tytos was gone and Tywin was lord, and Tywin is nothing like his father. He is a ruthless, machievellian warlord who stops at nothing in his quest for power. Go up against Tywin and lose, you don't get to bend the knee and return to your seat minus a few lands and titles. Your family is wiped out, even the babies; your castle is razed to the ground, your lands are burned from horizon to horizon, your cities are burned to the ground, smallfolk are slaughtered by the tens of thousands and left rotting in the mud -- and this happens even after he professes loyalty and friendship.

This is what keeps Lady Olenna up at night. Not Margaery getting a few black eyes and bruises -- plenty of queens have suffered far worse for their crowns -- but the Reach destroyed, Highgarden in ruins, her entire family, everyone she holds near and dear to her heart, murdered in cold blood, the Tyrell line extinguished, forever: that is what she is desperate to voice, desperate enough to commit murder.

Killing Tyrion does not undo all of this all at once, of course, but it's a start, and it at least maintains a rough parity between her military might and Tywin's. And all the while, they can now work from within to undermine and destroy the Lannister menace.

This is why Tyrion had to go at the wedding.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, divica said:

I agree with you, but I think there are 2 important things to add. 

If the tyrells and lf were together the when it becomes public knowledge that lf is in the vale with a bastard daughter nobody knew about they would immediately suspect it was Sansa. 

 

One of the strongest arguments there is for LF having plotted everything to happen exactly as it did is that he tells Sansa he met with joff and influenced him to do something. I am on my phone so I don't have the quote but it is interesting to keep that in mind. 

 

However, if we all can agree that nobody knew that tywin was going to die then LF planning to kill joff is mostly useless. It would be much better for him to kill tyrion. 

 

But to be honest, I have no idea why everybody was so adamant to blame tyrion and kill him when he was married to Sansa and if they could find her he was still the lannisters best bet to get the north. And there is also the fact there was a known poisoner in KL that hated the lannisters... 

You're assuming that the Tyrells do not know LF has Sansa. But this is not possible. If they did not know Petyr was going to get away with her, then killing Tyrion is all risk and no reward, since Tywin will just marry her to another Lannister. Their goal is to keep Winterfell out of Lannister hands.

It is not possible for LF to have planned everything that happened between the dwarf joust and the poisoning. How could he know that just by staging the joust that Joffrey would choose then and there to dump wine on Tyrion? Or name him cupbearer, which is the only reason Tyrion was anywhere near the chalice? Or that Joffrey would place the chalice exactly where it needed to be placed, not a foot to the left or to the right, for the poisoner to reach it? Indeed, there was no known Tyrell anywhere near the chalice during the entire pie ceremony. It sat right on the table, directly in front of Sansa. 

The real purpose of the dwarf joust was to signal Lady O that the pie was coming out so she needs to get in position to poison Tyrion's slice, which will be right behind him when the doves are released.

LF planning to kill Joffrey is useless regardless of whether Tywin lived or died. Mr "good thing I thrive on chaos" could not have had a more chaotic, yet powerful, piece to play than Joffrey. He could have used him to sow all kinds of chaos in the realm, on the battlefield, and within House Lannister. And did you notice the way Petyr manipulated Joffrey into agreeing with the dwarf joust? Not "Joffrey, you must do this", but after "I hate dwarves" he says "Not as much as your uncle will." This way, Joffrey takes ownership of the decision that LF wants him to make. The only other person who does it this way is Margaery, and by extension Lady Olenna. So the two people who are supposedly trying to kill Joffrey are also the only ones who can bend him to their wills? I don't think so.

The main reason suspicion fell on Tyrion was because, for some inexplicable reason, he picked up the chalice and dumped out the contents. From there, prejudice and innuendo took over. Oberyn was nowhere near the chalice and none of the servants or wine-carriers were Dornish, so there is very little to connect him to the poisoning.

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While I agree with the premise that the pie was poisoned, I think we are leaving one potential suspect out in this discussion.  Sansa.  Outside of the servant the only one who really was in a position to put the poison in the pie during the time period involved was Sansa.

It seems very unlikely that Sansa would not have come to the conclusion that the black amethysts in the hair net was poison.  It’s not like Dontos really tries to hide that fact when he gives her the hairnet:

Quote

It was a hair net of fine-spun silver, the strands so thin and delicate the net seemed to weigh no more than a breath of air when Sansa took it in her fingers.   Small gems were set wherever two strands crossed, so dark they drank the moonlight. “What stones are these?”
            “Black amethysts from Asshai. The rarest kind, a deep true purple by daylight.”
            “It’s very lovely,” Sansa said, thinking, It is a ship I need, not a net 
for my hair.
            “Lovelier than you know, sweet child. It’s magic, you see. It’s justice you hold. It’s vengeance for your father.” Dontos leaned close and kissed her again. “It’s home.”

So why would Sansa think that these gemstones hold justice and vengeance for her father?  Sansa was always spoiled and a bit sheltered.  But she really isn’t stupid.  She could come to the conclusion that what she really had was poison fairly easily.  

While we are only given Tyrion’s POV during the feast, we’re still given the most probable time that Sansa would have taken one of the stones from her hairnet, when the feast is first being served:

Quote

     Sansa tasted a spoonful of soup and pushed the bowl away. “Not to your liking, my lady?” Tyrion asked.
            “There’s to be so much, my lord. I have a little tummy.” She fiddled nervously with her hair and looked down the table to where Joffrey sat with his Tyrell queen.”

The thing that throws the reader off is that we’re given Sansa’s POV in the next chapter and she doesn’t acknowledge that she did the deed.  But the answer is fairly simple, Sansa repressed it.  Just like her father repressed part of his memory with Lyanna on her death bed.  We’re even given the exact moment she represses the enormity of what she just did:

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The sight of it had been too terrible to watch, and she had turned and fled, sobbing. Lady Tanda had been fleeing as well. “You have a good heart, my lady,” she said to Sansa. “Not every maid would weep so for a man who set her aside and wed her to a dwarf.”
            A good heart. I have a good heart. Hysterical laughter rose up her gullet, but Sansa choked it back down. The bells were ringing, slow and mournful.

She swallows the memory of what she did, into her tummy.  The same tummy that often flutters about like it has a bat in it wanting to escape.  The fluttering starts up when she thinks about becoming a widow:

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     Littlefinger smiled. “Widowhood will become you, Sansa.”
            The thought made her tummy flutter. She might never need to share a bed with Tyrion again. That was what she’d wanted … wasn’t it?”

 

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7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

While I agree with the premise that the pie was poisoned, I think we are leaving one potential suspect out in this discussion.  Sansa.  Outside of the servant the only one who really was in a position to put the poison in the pie during the time period involved was Sansa.

Fascinating.  This is turning out to be like Murder on the Orient Express.  Whodunnit?

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As I've posted in the other thread, I notice GRRM has a habit of answering major mysteries, only after the plot has moved so far beyond them, they can't really have any major effect on the plot. Joff being the person who tried to kill Bran is the biggest example of this, but Lysa killing Jon Arryn is a possible one as well. I know the popular fan theory is Sansa will use that info to bring LF down, but in this series I've given up trying to predict what GRRM will do next.

It's like he's scared of giving his POV characters important information, during periods of time where it might be useful to the narrative, lol

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On 5/14/2022 at 5:55 AM, The Bard of Banefort said:

How did this turn into a Purple Wedding truthers thread?

Has anyone suggested it was Tywin yet?  Because Joffrey was difficult and Tommen was biddable.....

But I agree with your list.  1 - 3 are proven in the text* although as with everything ASOIAF (and as this thread has demonstrated) there are always a few dissenters.  4 seems to be revealed but Varys is so opaque and his motives unclear that I would not be surprised by a twist.  5 is supported outside the main series.

*to most people's satisfaction

GRRM did say that the internet / his readership would come up with some explanations that they preferred to what he had actually imagined / written and that does seem to be the case here.

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On 5/13/2022 at 10:46 PM, John Suburbs said:

The Tyrell motivation to kill Tyrion takes a bit of explaining.

First, let's debunk the primary reason people think they want to kill Joffrey: that he poses a threat to Margaery. This is clearly contradicted in the text. Every interaction we see between them, right up to the moments before his death, shows that he was head-over-heels in love with her. I'd go so far as to say that Margaery is probably the only person on the planet who he does not despise. Look at the way he grabs her hand eagerly to get to the pie, then whirls her "merrily" after the doves are released. He's not faking this. We've seen him fake it before and it's laughably transparent. Even Sansa sees through it when she thought she was in love with him.

Joffrey is over the moon at getting to marry smoking hot 17yo Margaery Tyrell rather than skinny, dreary Sansa. It's like the high school freshmen math club geek is marrying the head cheerleader and prom queen. He couldn't be happier. And Margaery is nothing but an accomplished seductress, having learned from the best in the businesses: Lady Taena Merryweather and Lady Olenna Tyrell. Just the little episode with the sword shows you she knows exactly how to manipulate Joffrey -- not by telling him "no, you can't," like Sansa, Tyrion, Tywin, Cersei and virtually everyone else does, but a gentle hand and a softly worded suggestion: "Widows Wail was not meant for cutting pies." And can you just hear the sexual innuendo dripping from this one line" "Oh mighty king, what a large and powerful sword you have." Margaery is going to do everything she's been taught, both in the bedroom and in public, to flatter Joffrey, stroke his ego and stay on his good side. It will be a long, long time before she has to worry about a cross word from him, let alone violence.

And in the meantime, she is perfectly placed to isolate him from his family, drive wedges between him and his mother and uncle and grandfather, to create a schism that weakens House Lannister, which is the Tyrells real enemy.

The fact is, Joffrey doesn't just strut around the Red Keep beating highborn maidens at random. What happened to Sansa happened for reasons that are unique to her, namely:

  • Sansa and Joffrey have a bad history between them. She saw him cry on the Trident, and frankly, she goes out of her way to castigate him, criticize him, correct him and tell him no at every chance. Margaery is way too smart to do that.
  • Sansa is completely alone in the capital. She has no father, brother, family, guards, soldiers, no nobody to protect her. Margaery has the full might of Highgarden at her back, plus the fact that even Joffrey knows that if anything happens to her the alliance that is keeping his arse on the throne, and his head on his shoulders, is gone -- and if he doesn't know that yet, then Grampa Tywin and Uncle Jaime will be sure to explain it to him
  • Sansa's family is in open rebellion to the crown and her brother is winning battles in the westerlands, killing Lannisters on Lannister soil. She may be his betrothed, but she is also his hostage, and this is what happens to hostages. If Balon Greyjoy had risen in rebellion again, no one would think Ned was a mad tyrant who must be killed if he had Theon beaten, tortured or even executed. This is the reason you have hostages in the first place.

So this idea that Joffrey will beat Margaery just because he beat Sansa is nonsense. It's as silly as saying he will execute Mace just because he executed Ned. These are different people, in different circumstances with different relationships with Joffrey. Margaery is in absolutely no danger, and she won't be until long after she has become the queen mother and, regardless of whether he is hurting her or not, they can get rid of him in any number of ways so that she becomes regent and her son becomes king after her. This is a far, far better outcome for the Tyrells then that could ever get from Tommen.

Yes, I know, Lady O peppered Sansa with a bunch of questions about Joffrey, but this was just a con. She was trying to learn the truth about Sansa here, not Joffrey. She already knows all about the little lion from numerous trusted sources -- and really, the only reason she would be confused is because of the lies Littlefinger told, which he would have already confessed by now if she really is part of this plan, so she should not be confused about anything. What she doesn't know is the true nature of Sansa's character, which she needs to determine before she offers to make her the next Lady of Highgarden. I can go into this in more detail if you're curious.

 

Why does Lady O want to kill Tyrion?

Have you ever wondered why, throughout the ages, it was the riverlands that saw most of the warring? The constant rise and fall of petty kings, regular invasions from the stormlands, vale, westerlands and others? The riverlands at least has rivers to afford it some measure of protection, just like the north has its winters, Dorne its desert, mountains in the Vale and stormlands. The Reach has only one major river and the rest is league upon league of gently rolling hills and wide open farmlands, ripe for the taking.

The reason is the Reach's population. Highgarden can raise armies that are twice, even three times, the size of any other kingdom, and this is their one and only means of defense. But it can only be leveraged if there is political stability among the Reach nobility, and the best way to ensure this stability is through marriage. The Reach is basically one large extended family now, particularly among the three principal houses, Tyrell, Hightower and Redwyne: Lady O is a Redwyne, Allerie is a Hightower, but there are also Rowans, Fossoways, Beesburies and others in the mix (but lately, no Florents). This way, if the reach is attacked, the family will support one another and descend on the enemy with overwhelming force. It is telling, after all, that the only time Highgarden has fallen was when the Gardener king at the time made a series of unwise marriages for his daughters, which led to infighting among the banners and the Reach was invaded simultaneously by the westerlands, stormlands and Dorne.

Now, all of the other kingdoms and great houses married their banners as well. It's the best way to ensure their own political stability. But as long as the Reach has the population advantage, its security was ensured.

But that all started to change in the runup to Robert's Rebellion. Suddenly, you had Tullys marring Starks, Starks marrying Baratheons, Lannisters talking marriage with Martells, Martells even sniffing around (gasp) Hightowers. This changes the game radically because if these houses start forging the same familial connections that the Reach has done with its vassals, there is the potential they could overwhelm their one and only means of defense: their huge army. This is why the Tyrells supports Aerys -- not out of loyalty but because they had just as much to fear from these emerging power blocs as he did.

Things didn't work out as planned, of course, but the result was the same: Tullys married Starks and Arryns, but the big blow came from Cersei's marriage to Robert. In one move, Tywin expanded his influence beyond just the westerlands to include the crownlands, stormlands and the Iron Throne itself. Now, Tywin has extended his hold over the Riverlands and, with Tyrion's marriage to Sansa, the north as well. This puts him in control of well over half the kingdom, enough to easily overwhelm the Reach should push ever come to shove -- which is likely considering the two regions share an ill-defined border of some 500 leagues, rife territory for all manner of disputes to arise.

A word here about Tywin Lannister. For most of Lady Olenna's life, Casterly Rock was ruled by kindly old Tytos, who just wanted to get along with everybody. But suddenly, Tytos was gone and Tywin was lord, and Tywin is nothing like his father. He is a ruthless, machievellian warlord who stops at nothing in his quest for power. Go up against Tywin and lose, you don't get to bend the knee and return to your seat minus a few lands and titles. Your family is wiped out, even the babies; your castle is razed to the ground, your lands are burned from horizon to horizon, your cities are burned to the ground, smallfolk are slaughtered by the tens of thousands and left rotting in the mud -- and this happens even after he professes loyalty and friendship.

This is what keeps Lady Olenna up at night. Not Margaery getting a few black eyes and bruises -- plenty of queens have suffered far worse for their crowns -- but the Reach destroyed, Highgarden in ruins, her entire family, everyone she holds near and dear to her heart, murdered in cold blood, the Tyrell line extinguished, forever: that is what she is desperate to voice, desperate enough to commit murder.

Killing Tyrion does not undo all of this all at once, of course, but it's a start, and it at least maintains a rough parity between her military might and Tywin's. And all the while, they can now work from within to undermine and destroy the Lannister menace.

This is why Tyrion had to go at the wedding.

 

 

Olenna was a good schemer. She was the real power of House Tyrell and the Reach, just like Tywin was the real power of House Lannister and the Seven Kingdoms while he was Hand. She personally oversaw the Purple Wedding's expenses, kept King's Landing from starving during the war, and increased the Tyrell influence in the royal family by wedding Joffrey to Margaery. Because of Margaery's tutelage under Olenna, she easily controlled Joffrey. But unlike Tywin, she was a good maternal figure to her son and grandchildren and not just a conservative politician who saw his progeny as tools and didn't concern himself over their happiness, Olenna also cared about her family's well-being along with their prestige, so she knew that a strong-willed lunatic couldn't be kept close to her granddaughter, so she had him killed gruesomely and made Tyrion a scapegoat knowing the diabolical Cersei would blame him and then instigated the death of Oberyn, and then the assassinations of Myrcella and Tywin in the long and short term, where the Lannisters would be in disarray and they could end the unrest while growing stronger in influence.

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6 hours ago, GOTSeriesfan said:

Olenna was a good schemer. She was the real power of House Tyrell and the Reach, just like Tywin was the real power of House Lannister and the Seven Kingdoms while he was Hand. She personally oversaw the Purple Wedding's expenses, kept King's Landing from starving during the war, and increased the Tyrell influence in the royal family by wedding Joffrey to Margaery. Because of Margaery's tutelage under Olenna, she easily controlled Joffrey.

Olenna is not the true power of the Tyrells or did any of this. Olenna is an isolationist who if she were the power behind House Tyrell would not have risked the well being of her family in realm affairs. If she had her way they'd have all stayed home. Mace makes marriages and moves armies, Olenna comes along and works in the background to try and mitigate the personal damage his moves make and to protect her naive unassuming Brady Bunch of a family.

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1 hour ago, chrisdaw said:

Olenna is not the true power of the Tyrells or did any of this. Olenna is an isolationist who if she were the power behind House Tyrell would not have risked the well being of her family in realm affairs. If she had her way they'd have all stayed home. Mace makes marriages and moves armies, Olenna comes along and works in the background to try and mitigate the personal damage his moves make and to protect her naive unassuming Brady Bunch of a family.

Exactly, also I'd argue Mace is not an idiot, but he's very good at making others thing he is.

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, sifth said:

Exactly, also I'd argue Mace is not an idiot, but he's very good at making others thing he is.

And I'd disagree, Mace is the bumbling fool precisely as shown, a vain transparent glory seeker without the intelligence to understand there are inward and outward faces, he thinks it's all genuine. He will lead the Tyrells to destruction exactly as Olenna fears. Most likely he will seize Margaery by force because he's too stupid to understand the consequences even after Kevan explained them to him. Mace and Olenna do not work in tandem, Olenna does her best to dissuade Mace of his stupidity, and when he pats her on the head and carries on anyway she works in the shadows to try and stop him getting everyone killed.

Edited by chrisdaw
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21 hours ago, GOTSeriesfan said:

Olenna was a good schemer. She was the real power of House Tyrell and the Reach, just like Tywin was the real power of House Lannister and the Seven Kingdoms while he was Hand. She personally oversaw the Purple Wedding's expenses, kept King's Landing from starving during the war, and increased the Tyrell influence in the royal family by wedding Joffrey to Margaery. Because of Margaery's tutelage under Olenna, she easily controlled Joffrey. But unlike Tywin, she was a good maternal figure to her son and grandchildren and not just a conservative politician who saw his progeny as tools and didn't concern himself over their happiness, Olenna also cared about her family's well-being along with their prestige, so she knew that a strong-willed lunatic couldn't be kept close to her granddaughter, so she had him killed gruesomely and made Tyrion a scapegoat knowing the diabolical Cersei would blame him and then instigated the death of Oberyn, and then the assassinations of Myrcella and Tywin in the long and short term, where the Lannisters would be in disarray and they could end the unrest while growing stronger in influence.

No, if she was worried about this strong-willed lunatic in the slightest she never would have allowed the engagement in the first place. And remember, it was supposedly Littlefinger's lie that got Margaery into this fix in the first place, and then he never even confessed that lie. So how on earth do you suppose she would then implicitly trust the man responsible for putting Margaery in such danger when he says he has a plan to get her out of it, and then continues to trust him even when his "plan" is for the Tyrells to first provide the giant golden chalice -- which is not only more difficult to poison but opens up the very real possibility that Margaery will get poisoned as well -- then wait until it is sitting in plain sight of no less than a thousand witnesses and have someone drop the crystal without being seen -- and there is still no plausible explanation as to how this was done.

Oh, and where is the known liar and backstabber while Lady O is taking all these risks with her entire family? Why, he's safe and sound out on his boat, way out in the bay, waiting to collect his prize, or split to Essos at the first sign of trouble while Lady O and her entire family are being dragged down to the black cells to have their eyes burned out of their skulls.

So honestly? You think Lady Olenna Tyrell can be the real power in Highgarden while also being so incredibly gullible?

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