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On 6/3/2022 at 10:21 AM, John Suburbs said:

The pie had to have been right behind Tyrion, already cut and plated. How else could it have been served so quickly? It literally goes, cut, pigeons, applause, music, twirl and then the pie -- all in a matter of seconds. And it isn't much of a stretch to see that Lady Olenna could have orchestrated this whole thing, given that they have a thousand pies to serve and the night is getting long. And, of course, where was Lady O's last known position right before all this happened? Right behind Tyrion, right where the pie will be. So sorry, but we have every reason to assume this, especially considering there is no plausible, or even possible, way to do the wine without being seen. It is literally right in front of Sansa's nose, and there are a thousand people with direct line-of-site from the opposite direction. Even if by some miracle they pulled this off, the risk is far too high given that the consequences of failure are hideous torture followed by certain death, for Lady O and perhaps the entire Tyrell family -- which, of course, will lead to the very blood in the streets that they supposedly are trying to avoid with all of this.

A couple of issues here.  We know the sequence of events we don't know how long each sequence took.  Joffrey and Margaery cut the pie, they started to dance and then Tyrion was served his pie.  We don't know how long the serving took after the dancing started.  

Regardless we're not given any information that justifies a conclusion that the pie slices were placed on a table directly behind the recipient of said pie slice.  There is no mention of a table set up behind each recipient where the dishes were placed prior to the service of said dishes.  It being the royal table, there is a chance that the servants are standing there in possession of the pies waiting for the cue to start serving the pies.  We don't have any reason to believe that Tyrion's pie was unattended by at least the servant who handed Tyrion the pie. 

I think that's the biggest problem with the theory.  Sure it's possible but GRRM does nothing to set up that particular scene to jump to that conclusion.  The pies could have been on a table and each pie situated individually directly behind the recipients.  Or there were enough servants to hand deliver each meal to a particular recipient.  Or a servant had a tray of pies from which he started handing out the pies.  Or the pies were just randomly placed on a table behind the main table with no particular way of telling who got which pie.  

It's also possible that Olenna had one of the servants paid to look the other way.  :dunno:

 

On 6/3/2022 at 10:50 AM, John Suburbs said:

All Sansa needs to know is that if she doesn't wear the hairnet she can't go home. She does not need to know why or how. In fact, it would be more dangerous for Petyr, and her, if she did.

Sure I follow that, but it implies that Sansa is fairly insipid, where she can't come to that conclusion after being specifically told that the hairnet was vengeance and justice for her father.  If it's so important that Sansa not know the truth of the necklace why tell her that?  I'm not sure Sansa is that insipid, or that Dontos, at least, is taking any pains to keep Sansa ignorant of what the hairnet truly is.

On 6/3/2022 at 10:50 AM, John Suburbs said:

Why would the Tyrells need to kill Tyrion before he became lord-regent-in-waiting to Winterfell? But yes, their (and by this I mean Lady Olenna, who is the only Tyrell involved in this plot) motivation emerged only after he married Sansa, which was orchestrated by Petyr -- which, when seen through lens of the wine theory, is completely counter to his goals and objectives. 

Also, Lady Olenna has no practical means to get Sansa to Highgarden after the murder -- not without little birds seeing. They don't know about the secret stairway, they don't have anyone who can bring her out safely. Their only option is right through the main gate, where all the Lannister guards are. So once the Willas plan was blown, she had to give up on Sansa. She's probably none too happy that she's with Littlefinger, but it's better than leaving her with Tywin.

And even more evidence that contradicts the wine: why is Lady Olenna even thinking about bring Sansa to Highgarden? If she doesn't know that Petyr is going to snatch her, then she obviously knows that setting up Tyrion for the murder will also implicate Sansa. So there is no way anyone, let alone a smart cookie like Olenna, would expect she could just casually head off to Highgarden.

I agree with most of your point here, I think.  I agree that you don's use the Strangler if you want to also implicate someone as being guilty of the crime.  That part of Petyr's story doesn't make any sense.  That he arranged the events to transpire to kill Joffrey and frame Tyrion.  You don't use the Strangler to make someone look guilty of being a poisoner.  The purpose of the Strangler is to make the death look like an accident, like someone choked on their food.

No one could have foreseen that Cersei's memories of the Volanquar would make her immediately jump to the conclusion that Tyrion had poisoned Joffrey.

So assuming that the Tyrells were involved and assuming that their target was Tyrion, then it seems that they wanted it to look like Tyrion died from choking on his food.  But in that case there is no reason to implicate Sansa for anything.  Which still frees her up for a new marriage.  Which makes me disagree that they had given up on the Willas plan.  If Sansa is free then the Tyrells still had an opportunity to try and send Sansa to Highgarden.  

I dont' think they knew that Petyr had planned on smuggling Sansa out that night though, because that scenario doesn't benefit them at all.  My guess is that if Tyrion was the target, Joffrey's sudden death caught them off guard and they (or maybe just Olenna) didn't pay attention to where Sansa fled to.

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Another interesting possibility came to me though.  What if Petyr wasn't the one who let Olenna in on the poisoning plan?  What if it was Dontos?  Who seemed so eager to curry favor with his Highgarden saviors who he was singing the praises of?

Or the idiot Dontos, drunkenly told Moonboy who informed Olenna?  

Then Olenna in turn subverted the plan for her own?

Which might be the real reason that Petyr had Dontos killed.

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18 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

A couple of issues here.  We know the sequence of events we don't know how long each sequence took.  Joffrey and Margaery cut the pie, they started to dance and then Tyrion was served his pie.  We don't know how long the serving took after the dancing started.  

Regardless we're not given any information that justifies a conclusion that the pie slices were placed on a table directly behind the recipient of said pie slice.  There is no mention of a table set up behind each recipient where the dishes were placed prior to the service of said dishes.  It being the royal table, there is a chance that the servants are standing there in possession of the pies waiting for the cue to start serving the pies.  We don't have any reason to believe that Tyrion's pie was unattended by at least the servant who handed Tyrion the pie. 

I think that's the biggest problem with the theory.  Sure it's possible but GRRM does nothing to set up that particular scene to jump to that conclusion.  The pies could have been on a table and each pie situated individually directly behind the recipients.  Or there were enough servants to hand deliver each meal to a particular recipient.  Or a servant had a tray of pies from which he started handing out the pies.  Or the pies were just randomly placed on a table behind the main table with no particular way of telling who got which pie.  

It's also possible that Olenna had one of the servants paid to look the other way.  :dunno:

 

 

 

We know that it couldn't have taken more than a few seconds. Cut, doves, applause, music, twirl, pie. Everything since the dwarf joust unfolds in real time. If the pies are being carried in from the kitchens it would take several minutes.

Who said anything about a table? The more likely scenario is that it was in the servant's hands, to be served immediately after the cutting. They have a thousand pies to serve. This all has to be done quickly. So no, it was not unattended, but it doesn't have to be. All Lady O needs to do is make sure one person and one person only, the servant, is looking up at the doves. A split second and it's done. And she even has overwhelming odds of where Tyrion will take his one and only bite: the pointy end, which is also the easiest to poison. And of course she knows exactly which pie is for Tyrion. She is the one who orchestrated all of this. And why would she need to pay someone off here when she can easily distract them with this once-in-a-lifetime event? And how would your be feeling afterward if you were this person, knowing that you and you alone have information that could get Lady Olenna killed but she can get literally anyone to serve her pie?

So all these questions about why we don't know this or that for sure or how long it took and what was what are irrelevant. This is at least plausible, and in fact, likely. The wine, on the other hand, is downright impossible. It is right in front of Sansa's nose and there are a thousand people facing it from the other direction, and even to get to this point we have to wonder why Lady Olenna would intentionally want to increase both the difficulty and the risk of poisoning the chalice, and put Margaery's life in jeopardy as well. Margaery is supposed to be the one she is trying to save.

 

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Sure I follow that, but it implies that Sansa is fairly insipid, where she can't come to that conclusion after being specifically told that the hairnet was vengeance and justice for her father.  If it's so important that Sansa not know the truth of the necklace why tell her that?  I'm not sure Sansa is that insipid, or that Dontos, at least, is taking any pains to keep Sansa ignorant of what the hairnet truly is.

Sansa is insipid. She believes in songs and stories and that all knights are good and all the rest. She does not need to know the truth, and she would probably get cold feet if she knew she was an accomplice to murder. Just wear the hairnet or else you can't go home. That's all she needs to know. And it also prevents her from running to the queen with the evidence, if she gets a mind to do something like that again.

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I agree with most of your point here, I think.  I agree that you don's use the Strangler if you want to also implicate someone as being guilty of the crime.  That part of Petyr's story doesn't make any sense.  That he arranged the events to transpire to kill Joffrey and frame Tyrion.  You don't use the Strangler to make someone look guilty of being a poisoner.  The purpose of the Strangler is to make the death look like an accident, like someone choked on their food.

No one could have foreseen that Cersei's memories of the Volanquar would make her immediately jump to the conclusion that Tyrion had poisoned Joffrey.

You also don't use the strangler to make it appear someone is choking unless you are certain they will be eating at the same time they are drinking. And with the chalice now far away from Joffrey's place at the table, there is no reasonable expectation that he would be eating.

I'm sure the valonquar thing was in the back of Cersei's mind, but what drew the accusation was Tyrion inexplicably walking over to the chalice and dumping the contents on the floor and then waddling over to Cersei. I still can't fathom why he did that, and the text offers no clue.

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So assuming that the Tyrells were involved and assuming that their target was Tyrion, then it seems that they wanted it to look like Tyrion died from choking on his food.  But in that case there is no reason to implicate Sansa for anything.  Which still frees her up for a new marriage.  Which makes me disagree that they had given up on the Willas plan.  If Sansa is free then the Tyrells still had an opportunity to try and send Sansa to Highgarden.  

I dont' think they knew that Petyr had planned on smuggling Sansa out that night though, because that scenario doesn't benefit them at all.  My guess is that if Tyrion was the target, Joffrey's sudden death caught them off guard and they (or maybe just Olenna) didn't pay attention to where Sansa fled to.

Even if Lady O did not know that Petyr was going to take Sansa they still have no hope of bringing her to Highgarden. The exposure of the Willas plan guarantees that the Lannisters will not allow that to happen. She will be promptly married off to another Lannister and this whole plot and all the risks she has taken will have been for naught. The only way any of this works for Lady O is that Sansa will be removed so that Tywin cannot use her to gain the north. That's what all of this is about from her perspective.

 

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