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Ukraine 15 - Si vis pacem, para bellum


Alarich II

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2 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

There are some far-right types on my Facebook that sort of buy into all this.

They regard arming Ukraine as benefiting the military industrial complex more than anything else and go so far as to say Putin is justified in striving against NATO.  They are also ant-vaccine advocates and regard charges of Russia influencing Trump promoting divisive memes on social media as ludicrous - all the while spouting conspiracy theories centered on the evils of the 'radical left.'

That's interesting. Apparently the Russian QAnon brigade (which is a thing) and the Russian anti-vax movement have really turned on Putin, who was very forceful in encouraging vaccinations in Russia. They're even sharing stories of the "real" events in Ukraine on Russian social media channels apparently as a form of revenge.

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At the same time, Donald Trump's folks are going hard on the idea that we're spending $40b on Ukraine but WHAT ABOUT THE US.

So that whole thing is coming to pass as expected, and some Republicans in congress are starting to follow suit. 

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South Ossetia is to hold a referendum on joining Russia in July, which is going to go well and blow-up tensions with Georgia again (probably the whole point).

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2 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

At the same time, Donald Trump's folks are going hard on the idea that we're spending $40b on Ukraine but WHAT ABOUT THE US.

So that whole thing is coming to pass as expected, and some Republicans in congress are starting to follow suit. 

Goddamn, that almost sounds like a silver lining to me. Agitation for increased public spending? That's good news. Unfortunately they'll probably earmark it for the building of profit prisons and rerouting roads to center on Amazon warehouses, but let's enjoy this sixty seconds of common cause. For the sake of goodwill and all that. 

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7 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

At the same time, Donald Trump's folks are going hard on the idea that we're spending $40b on Ukraine but WHAT ABOUT THE US.

So that whole thing is coming to pass as expected, and some Republicans in congress are starting to follow suit. 

You mean the $40 billion in aid the House Republicans voted for 149-57 on Tuesday?  Yeah, it is going as expected that it clearly will not be an issue this cycle and Biden doesn't have anything to worry about in terms of Ukraine as a political issue until after the midterms.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

You mean the $40 billion in aid the House Republicans voted for 149-57 on Tuesday?  Yeah, it is going as expected that it clearly will not be an issue this cycle and Biden doesn't have anything to worry about in terms of Ukraine as a political issue until after the midterms.

Is that the one Aqua Buddha derailed in the senate?

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Further reporting that the Russians have run out of steam (again) and that they are moving to the defensive.  They may still engage in small scale offensives like trying to surround and capture Sevierodonetsk, but by and large the Russian army is out of rocket fuel. 

The initiative has passed to Ukraine to kick the Russians out of their country. 

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27 minutes ago, DMC said:

You mean the $40 billion in aid the House Republicans voted for 149-57 on Tuesday?  Yeah, it is going as expected that it clearly will not be an issue this cycle and Biden doesn't have anything to worry about in terms of Ukraine as a political issue until after the midterms.

Maybe? Depends on how long this cycle is. But it's definitely the case that this is where Trump is going. 

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3 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

Maybe? Depends on how long this cycle is. But it's definitely the case that this is where Trump is going. 

Well, the cycle I was referring to has a very exact end date - November 8th. 

As for "this definitely being where Trump is going," it's not surprising he's going to give a nod to the Carlson brigade with nativistic messaging attacking Biden - especially considering his main point was "Europe should pay more."  Trump will "go" with playing both sides rhetorically, not only because he's always done that and gotten away with it, but it's simply easier for the opposition out of power to do so.

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3 hours ago, DMC said:

Well, the cycle I was referring to has a very exact end date - November 8th. 

I think there's a lot of stuff left to do. 

Will it change the election results? Probably not.

Will this be the last aid we send to Ukraine for a while? Possibly. 

3 hours ago, DMC said:

As for "this definitely being where Trump is going," it's not surprising he's going to give a nod to the Carlson brigade with nativistic messaging attacking Biden - especially considering his main point was "Europe should pay more."  Trump will "go" with playing both sides rhetorically, not only because he's always done that and gotten away with it, but it's simply easier for the opposition out of power to do so.

He'll do it because he's terrified of Putin and will do anything in his power to avoid any conflict with him. 

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2 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

I think there's a lot of stuff left to do. 

Will it change the election results? Probably not.

Will this be the last aid we send to Ukraine for a while? Possibly. 

I mean this will take US aid allocated by Congress up to almost $54 billion, so..yea, it should probably last until around the midterms, right?  Maybe more funding will be required/sought in the fall, but it's very unlikely to be a political problem to get it passed.  And yeah, my point is this isn't going to be an electoral issue.

6 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

He'll do it because he's terrified of Putin and will do anything in his power to avoid any conflict with him.

He'll do what?  Rhetorically attack Biden for spending US money on aid while Europe "isn't paying their fair share."  Yeah he doesn't need fear of Putin to do that.

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11 minutes ago, DMC said:

I mean this will take US aid allocated by Congress up to almost $54 billion, so..yea, it should probably last until around the midterms, right?  Maybe more funding will be required/sought in the fall, but it's very unlikely to be a political problem to get it passed.  And yeah, my point is this isn't going to be an electoral issue.

I suspect Ukraine will need or at least request more soon. Especially for rebuilding and humanitarian aid. $40bn is a lot of money, but it's also not a lot of money. 

11 minutes ago, DMC said:

He'll do what?  Rhetorically attack Biden for spending US money on aid while Europe "isn't paying their fair share."  Yeah he doesn't need fear of Putin to do that.

No, he'll do a lot more, like attack Biden for prolonging the war or not putting America first or escalating things with Putin. 

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2 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

I suspect Ukraine will need or at least request more soon. Especially for rebuilding and humanitarian aid. $40bn is a lot of money, but it's also not a lot of money. 

They passed $13.6 billion two months ago.  It stands to reason $40 billion should last about six months.

3 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

No, he'll do a lot more, like attack Biden for prolonging the war or not putting America first or escalating things with Putin. 

Sure, while at the same time saying Biden is weak and this would never have happened under him.

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These tales of Putin's possible ill health just won't quit.

Yes, they are likely bogus, but they're not really being effectively countered, either.

 

Putin 'Very Sick' With Cancer, Other Health Issues: Ukrainian Official (msn.com)

 

Speculations that Putin is ill have floated around since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, as many have been quick to point out instances where the Russian strongman looked pale or sickly.

Most recently, Ukraine's head of military intelligence, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, told Sky News that Putin was in a "very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick."

He added that Putin has "cancer and other illnesses," and when Sky News asked if he was merely spreading propaganda, Budanov replied, "It's my job, it's my work, if not me, who will know this?"

The Kremlin has continuously insisted that Putin is in good health, and Newsweek could not independently verify these claims.

 

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Ukrainian intelligence has generally been excellent throughout the war, both because of their ability to immediately understand the Russian language and general attitude, and also because the Russians' still-curious decision to destroy the G4/5 mobile infrastructure their very encrypted comms rely on, meaning that almost all Russian communications have been in the clear. The casualty figures Ukraine has reported, which have almost immediately been scoffed at, seem to have later been confirmed by Russian media leaks, because Ukraine is just repeating what the Russians have been saying (although the Russians themselves can be wrong, of course, especially since they have not been evacuating bodies from contested areas).

That said, I doubt experts in the know have been discussing Putin's health on the front lines, so whilst that might come from Ukrainian intelligence assets in Moscow, it's more likely they are basing that on Putin's TV appearances and rumours. If it puts doubt in the minds of the Russian soldiers, why not? But we do have to worry about it being wishful thinking, and maybe the risk of someone worse than Putin taking over.

The BBC is now widely reporting that the Russians seem to have given up on Kharkiv, pulled way back, and they have gone on the defensive. The BBC's reporting has been quite good in that it's conservative and blocks out a lot of the noise-of-the-moment you get from Twitter, so it tends to report things once they are confirmed. That does sometimes lead to confusion (sometimes the BBC is reporting battlefield events from two days ago as if they've just happened) but it blocks out some of the more hysterical conclusions sometimes drawn from other sources.

Looking at other sources, the success at Kharkiv has been attributed to growing Ukrainian successes with counter-battery artillery spotters and weapons, and the Russian forces in the area being below strength. It also looks like there have been continuing Ukrainian UAV  and artillery attacks on Russian positions outside Belgorod, disrupting efforts to gather reinforcements for a renewed push into northern Ukraine. Some suggestions those units might now be pulled back east and sent to reinforce Donbas.

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Ukraine has reported it has conducted counter-offensive operations around Izium. Unclear if this is a new operation today or a reference to the attacks on Izium earlier this week that appeared to be successful.

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Putin health rumors really don't feel worthwhileto discuss.  We don't have any way of getting information that can be trusted short of Putin making a statement and resigning.  So any statement or rumor from other Russian sources is just reading tea leaves about whether it's propaganda or not.  

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