Ukraine 15 - Si vis pacem, para bellum

[A Horse Named Stranger]

43 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

Fascinating long-form story on what happened in chernobyl and how close things got - and how negotiations avoided catastrophe.

https://www.economist.com/1843/2022/05/10/the-inside-story-of-chernobyl-during-the-russian-occupation

Hum, I can only read the first two paragraphs.

[Werthead]

Mitch McConnell in Kyiv, which feels like a contravention of several weapon test-ban treaties.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

10 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Mitch McConnell in Kyiv, which feels like a contravention of several weapon test-ban treaties.

Mitch would be better served to get the douchbag Senator from Kentucky back on the bandwagon.

:|

[Kalbear]

39 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Hum, I can only read the first two paragraphs.

It's worth it to register and use a free article for this.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Maybe he mistook Kyiv for Moscow.

And it's Senator Aqua Buddha, Scot.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

Why the failed bridge crossing may have been more disasterous for Russia than discussed: 

[maarsen]

I just read online that Ukraine intelligence is saying a coup against Putin is in progress now. BTW, did anyone else notice Putin seems to be on steroids?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

18 minutes ago, maarsen said:

I just read online that Ukraine intelligence is saying a coup against Putin is in progress now. BTW, did anyone else notice Putin seems to be on steroids?

Saw that this morning.  If it is underway it is remarkable quiet.

[Jace, Extat]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Saw that this morning.  If it is underway it is remarkable quiet.

In serious countries coups don't play out on TV. That's the whole point of the coup.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, maarsen said:

I just read online that Ukraine intelligence is saying a coup against Putin is in progress now. BTW, did anyone else notice Putin seems to be on steroids?

I imagine if there was one underway with a serious chance of success Ukraine intelligence would be silent.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

23 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

These tales of Putin's possible ill health just won't quit.

Yes, they are likely bogus, but they're not really being effectively countered, either.

 

Putin 'Very Sick' With Cancer, Other Health Issues: Ukrainian Official (msn.com)

 

Speculations that Putin is ill have floated around since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, as many have been quick to point out instances where the Russian strongman looked pale or sickly.

Most recently, Ukraine's head of military intelligence, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, told Sky News that Putin was in a "very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick."

He added that Putin has "cancer and other illnesses," and when Sky News asked if he was merely spreading propaganda, Budanov replied, "It's my job, it's my work, if not me, who will know this?"

The Kremlin has continuously insisted that Putin is in good health, and Newsweek could not independently verify these claims.

 

I have to ask: is this speculation just ageism?

[ThinkerX]

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I have to ask: is this speculation just ageism?

I wouldn't know.

I will say there were a number of seemingly hale and hearty oldsters who just up dropped dead back when I was running the mail route. So, yes, people do die. A bit of speculation in this case seems harmless to me.

[Toth]

So... I'm hearing the next Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Mariupol?

[ThinkerX]

Just came across an unsubstantiated tidbit supposedly originating from a Ukrainian general claiming there was a coup in progress against Putin. Almost certainly fake news...but why report something so easily disproven? 

(No link, because I view the report as that dubious)

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

Is anyone actually reading this thread or is every 3rd poster just going to keep repeating previous posts?

[Loge]

1 hour ago, Toth said:

So... I'm hearing the next Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Mariupol?

I hope it's Sevastopol.

[Werthead]

UK military analysis this morning is that about one-third of the Russian force committed in February is no longer combat-effective. That's in line with Ukraine suggesting Russian fatalities of 27,000, with the Donbas Republic and mercenary casualties adding at least 6,000 to that, and of course injuries at least doubling that figure overall.

9 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I have to ask: is this speculation just ageism?

Putin is 69, which isn't that old on a global scale (Biden is ten years older), but he definitely looks in ill health especially compared to his previous macho image. Many of the people around him are the same age or just slightly older or younger and look in better shape; Shoigu is just two years younger and looks in much better shape.

It doesn't really mean anything without other information to back it up. Someone can look fantastic at 65, pretty horrible at 70 but live in reasonable health to 103.

3 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

Just came across an unsubstantiated tidbit supposedly originating from a Ukrainian general claiming there was a coup in progress against Putin. Almost certainly fake news...but why report something so easily disproven? 

(No link, because I view the report as that dubious)

I think it's a mistranslation. They don't mean a coup as in people are currently storming the Kremlin, but that plots and planning is underway. I think that's probably accurate, and would be so even if the war had never happened, since Putin's age and Russia's iffy life expectancy (67 on average for men) puts him in the bracket where people around him are going to be thinking of succession even if he isn't.

[SpaceChampion]

Possibly "already underway" is meant more like "it's inevitable" or "it's fated" like a historical force at work he thinks will happen.  Hopefully not just wishful thinking.

[Gorn]

I think the "illness" part is real, and the coup part is a psy-op directed at Putin. Remember, the guy saying it works in intelligence, he doesn't say things like this randomly or accidentally.

There is corroborating evidence for Putin being ill - extreme anti-Covid protection measures, face bloating, faked public appearances, etc. I believe they have some actual intelligence about it, and that they aren't just mentioning a random specific illness in public.

So why disclose it? To give credence to the "coup" part of the statement. Why make up a coup? To make the Russian leadership more dysfunctional. At a crucial time, Putin will be more busy looking around him than focusing on the war. And paranoia is a vicious circle - if a leader is being irrational, people around him will become more likely to really plot against him. And more long-time loyalists he replaced, more likely it is that actually disloyal people will get into positions of power.

[Maithanet]

13 minutes ago, Gorn said:

Why make up a coup? To make the Russian leadership more dysfunctional. At a crucial time, Putin will be more busy looking around him than focusing on the war. And paranoia is a vicious circle - if a leader is being irrational, people around him will become more likely to really plot against him. And more long-time loyalists he replaced, more likely it is that actually disloyal people will get into positions of power.

Doesn't always work that way. Stalin died in his bed after killing multiple generations of Soviet leaders.