Ukraine 15 - Si vis pacem, para bellum

[Loge]

17 minutes ago, broken one said:

Ive encountered an opinion, that because Ukrainians will not be able to counter-attack in direction of Kherson (big losses and uncertain outcome) and the same applies to direction of Lugansk and Donetsk, what they should try to do is to interrupt the land corridor from Donetsk to Crimea and retrieve Melitopol. Succeeding they would annihilate the only strategic goal achieved by Russians by now. Seems Russians understand this, it is said now they are fortifying their positions along the corridor.

Also one should not get too excited about the success of Kharkiv "offensive",  both sides had moved most of their forces from Kharkiv area to the more important theater of operation in the South. Remnants clashed and the Ukrainian remnant turned out to be more effective. In theory the success gives Ukrainians some opportunities to harass Russian supply lines but it is no big deal.

I don't think that's correct. Ukrainian advances in the Kharkiv region threaten the supply line from Belgorod. There was talk of Russia moving troops from the Donbas to the Kharkiv area because of that, which has further weakened their attempt at an offensive.

[broken one]

27 minutes ago, Loge said:

I don't think that's correct. Ukrainian advances in the Kharkiv region threaten the supply line from Belgorod. There was talk of Russia moving troops from the Donbas to the Kharkiv area because of that, which has further weakened their attempt at an offensive.

I hope you are right and something comes  of it, but the lines are not threatened yet (according to, among others, the material Werthead has posted).

As for the fighting remnants - I think it was correct. I saw an analysis with maps and info on numbers on both sides near Kharkiv. Now the importance of the success might have grown, but initially Russians just moved most of the force south, Ukrainians followed.

I've read that probably Russians shelve the concept of taking whole Donetsk and Lugansk regions anyway, they are running out of steam and know they cannot make it, so they would focus on defending what they gained.

[Werthead]

There's also signs that the Russians have set up a new supply line running NE from Izium. The Ukrainians need to take or cut off Izium, which is what they seem to be starting to focus on right now. That negates the need to cut off the Belgorod supply line.

Some reports that a small Russian recon force crossed the border near Sumy and was fought back. That might be a sign that the Russians are thinking of either sending in more troops to that area (which has been clear of fighting for a month) or are trying to pin down Ukrainian troops in the area.

There's also been fresh Belarusian exercises near the Ukrainian border, which the UK MoD is reporting as an attempt to tie up Ukrainian forces which might otherwise head east. UK military intelligence has assessed that Lukachenko is trying to avoid both heavy sanctions and the possibility of military defeat in Ukraine, which could threaten his position at home.

[Loge]

1 hour ago, broken one said:

I hope you are right and something comes  of it, but the lines are not threatened yet (according to, among others, the material Werthead has posted).

I guess it depends on what you call a threat. If the railway to Belgorod comes within artillery range I'd call that a threat. 

 

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

There's also signs that the Russians have set up a new supply line running NE from Izium. The Ukrainians need to take or cut off Izium, which is what they seem to be starting to focus on right now. That negates the need to cut off the Belgorod supply line.

That can be read as Russia no longer deeming the Belgorod line safe or expecting it to become unsafe soon.

ETA: This  twitter post shows the supply lines:

 

 

There is also this video of a railway bridge being blown up, so apparently there is some sabotage going on behind the Russian lines.

 

 

[Werthead]

Sweden has agreed to join NATO.

Norway, Iceland and Denmark have offered a joint security guarantee to Finland and Sweden to defend them during the application process. The UK has already agreed to provide support to both countries, and the USA has previously indicated that they will consider both countries to be under Article 5 from the second the process starts.

[Ran]

To quote a Swedish wag: No, Russia, we're not actually joining NATO. We're just participating in a ... special military partnership.

[Corvinus85]

4 minutes ago, Ran said:

To quote a Swedish wag: No, Russia, we're not actually joining NATO. We're just participating in a ... special military partnership.

In other news, Finland has moved its agricultural equipment to the Russian border. All tractors are equipped with towing hooks.

[broken one]

So Erdogan achieved shock effect, stressed his importance and relaxed... or not? I hope its about Kurds, not a deal with Putin.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

So… per this and other reports I’m seeing the Ukrainians have crossed the Donets river east of Kharkiv and are driving East into the rear of Russian lines and supply supporting the Izyum advance.

 

[Werthead]

Putin has said he does not see Sweden and Finland joining NATO as a direct threat to Russia, because they have been aligned with the alliance for almost 30 years anyway and Russia enjoys good bilateral relations with both.

However, he has said that NATO putting nuclear bases or permanent bases in either country would be a different matter. Sweden has ruled that out already and Finland has said it has no plans to change the defense posture along the border.

I think on a realpolitik basis, the move is not likely to escalate tensions, only rhetoric.

16 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

So… per this and other reports I’m seeing the Ukrainians have crossed the Donets river east of Kharkiv and are driving East into the rear of Russian lines and supply supporting the Izyum advance.

There is confusion, but it looks like there is a renewed action around Izium. That's not entirely linked to the Kharkiv advance, which is a good distance to the NW, but clearly it's relieving pressure on the western Donbas. If Ukrainian forces have crossed the Donets in force, that is very bad news for the Russians, who have not been able to advance over the rivers further south.

[Maltaran]

1 hour ago, broken one said:

So Erdogan achieved shock effect, stressed his importance and relaxed... or not? I hope its about Kurds, not a deal with Putin.

It seems to be mainly about the Kurds.

[SeanF]

On 5/15/2022 at 5:28 PM, Zorral said:

There were so many they got in each other's way, and some stabbed each other, when the first one actually did it.

The murder of Caesar is a textbook example of how *not* to carry out a coup d’etat.  Luttwark would be highly unimpressed at the plotters’ readiness to let his prominent supporters live, and get revenge.

The overthrow of Beria is how you do it.  After a few minutes, Beria must have realised that Kruschev’s denunciation could only mean one thing.  All the pieces had already been played, and he was a living dead man.

[Werthead]

Turkey now saying it is minded to veto Sweden and Finland's membership.

Sigh.

[broken one]

12 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Turkey now saying it is minded to veto Sweden and Finland's membership.

Sigh.

Wonder if he will persistently demand the impossible or settle for something else instead. I dont know what was given or promised to him when he blocked the NATO plan for eastern flank, but hope this time he may be bought with currency other than Kurdish heads.

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, broken one said:

Wonder if he will persistently demand the impossible or settle for something else instead. I dont know what was given or promised to him when he blocked the NATO plan for eastern flank, but hope this time he may be bought with currency other than Kurdish heads.

There'll be some horse trading and he'll back down, or maybe Erdogan will try to use his veto as a weapon to get Putin to agree to a peace deal.

[Maithanet]

I hope those men and women somehow get the medical treatment they need and find their way to proper treatment in POW camps.  But I'm not at all confident of that.

{further down this thread}

Quote

Russian media claimed on May 16 that an agreement was reached to evacuate heavily wounded soldiers from Azovstal to the Russian-occupied Novoazovsk.

Reuters reported that about a dozen buses apparently carrying Ukrainian fighters left the plant.

This is a developing story.

 

[Werthead]

16 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I hope those men and women somehow get the medical treatment they need and find their way to proper treatment in POW camps.  But I'm not at all confident of that.

{further down this thread}

The report is that Ukraine has agreed to swap several hundred Russian POWs for the soldiers. So hopefully that deal is stuck to.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

The report is that Ukraine has agreed to swap several hundred Russian POWs for the soldiers. So hopefully that deal is stuck to.

Unfortunately, there is some doubt about that.  Some Russians are calling for the prisoners to be executed.

[Zorral]

 

[Heartofice]

Probably the last time we'll be seeing that guy.